Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average ~$67--I have to admit, the drop today was too tasty so my cost basis went up from yesterday)/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. In this post I will go a little further and speculate more than I'd normally do in a post due to the questions I've been getting, so fair warning, some of it might be very wrong. I suspect we'll learn some of the truth years from now when some investigative journalist writes a book about it.
Thank you everyone for the comments and questions on the first and second post on this topic.
Today was a study in the power of fear, courage, and the levers you can pull when you wield billions of dollars...
Woops, excuse me. I'm sorry hedge fund guys... I meant trillions of dollars--I just briefly forget you control not just your own but a lot of other peoples' money too for a moment there.
Also, for people still trading this on market-based rationale (as I am), it was a good day to measure the conviction behind your thesis. I like to think I have conviction, but in case you are somehow not yet familiar with the legend of DFV, you need to see these posts (fair warning, nsfw, and some may be offended/triggered by the crude language). The last two posts might be impressive, but you should follow it in chronological order and pay attention to the evolution of sentiment in the comments to experience true enlightenment.
Anyway, I apologize, but this post will be very long--there's just a lot to unpack.

Pre-Market

Disclaimer: given yesterday's pre-market action I didn't even pay attention to the screen until near retail pre-market. I'm less confident in my ability to read what's going on in a historical chart vs the feel I get watching live, but I'll try.
Early in the pre-market it looks to me like some momentum traders are taking profit, discounting the probability that the short-side will give them a deep discount later, which you can reasonably assume given the strategy they ran yesterday. If they're right they can sell some small volume into the pre-market top, wait for the hedge funds try to run the price back down, and then lever up the gains even higher buying the dip. Buy-side here look to me like people FOMOing and YOLOing in at any price to grab their slice of gainz, or what looks to be market history in the making. No way are short-side hedge funds trying to cover anything at these prices.
Mark Cuban--well said! Free markets baby!
Mohamed El-Erian is money in the bank as always. "upgrade in quality" on the pandemic drop was the best, clearest actionable call while most were at peak panic, and boy did it print. Your identifying the bubble as the excessive short (vs blaming retail activity) is money yet again. Also, The PAIN TRADE (sorry, later interview segment I only have on DVR, couldn't find on youtube--maybe someone else can)!
The short attack starts, but I'm hoping no one was panicking this time--we've seen it before. Looks like the momentum guys are minting money buying the double dip into market open.
CNBC, please get a good market technician to explain the market action. Buy-side dominance, sell-side share availability evaporating into nothing (look at day-by-day volume last few days), this thing is now at runaway supercritical mass. There is no changing the trajectory unless you can change the very fabric of the market and the rules behind it (woops, I guess I should have knocked on wood there).
If you know the mechanics, what's happening in the market with GME is not mysterious AT ALL. I feel like you guys are trying to scare retail out early "for their own good" (with all sincerity, to your credit) rather than explain what's happening. Possibly you also fear that explaining it would equate to enabling/encouraging people to keep trying to do it inappropriately (possibly fair point, but at least come out and say that if that's the case). Outside the market, however...wow.

You Thought Yesterday Was Fear? THIS is Fear!

Ok short-side people, my hat is off to you. Just when I thought shouting fire in a locked theater was fear mongering poetry in motion, you went and took it to 11. What's even better? Yelling fire in a theater with only one exit. That way people can cause the financial equivalent of stampede casualties. Absolutely brilliant.
Robin Hood disables buying of GME, AMC, and a few of the other WSB favorites. Other brokerages do the same. Even for people on 0% margin. Man, and here I thought I had seen it all yesterday.
Side note: I will give a shout out to TD Ameritrade. You guys got erroneously lumped together with RH during an early CNBC segment, but you telegraphed the volatility risk management changes and gradually ramped up margin requirements over the past week. No one on your platform should have been surprised if they were paying attention. And you didn't stop anyone from trading their own money at any point in time. My account balance thanks you. I heard others may have had problems, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt given the DDOS attacks that were flyiing around
Robin Hood. Seriously WTF. I'm sure it was TOTALLY coincidence that your big announcements happen almost precisely when what has to be one of the best and most aggressive short ladder attacks of all time starts painting the tape, what looked like a DDOS attack on Reddit's CDN infrastructure (pretty certain it was the CDN because other stuff got taken out at the same time too), and a flood of bots hit social media (ok, short-side, this last one is getting old).
Taking out a large-scale cloud CDN is real big boy stuff though, so I wouldn't entirely rule out nation state type action--those guys are good at sniffing out opportunities to foment social unrest.
Anyway, at this point, as the market dives, I have to admit I was worried for a moment. Not that somehow the short-side would win (hah! the long-side whales in the pond know what's up), but that a lot of retail would get hurt in the action. That concern subsided quite a bit on the third halt on that slide. But first...
A side lesson on market orders
Someone printed bonus bank big time (and someone lost--I feel your pain, whoever you are).
During the face-ripping volatility my play money account briefly ascended to rarified heights of 7 figures. It took me a second to realize it, then another second to process it. Then, as soon as it clicked, that one, glorious moment in time was gone.
What happened?
During the insane chop of the short ladder attack, someone decided to sweep the 29 Jan 21 115 Call contracts, but they couldn't get a grip on the price, which was going coast to coast as IV blew up and the price was being slammed around. So whoever was trying to buy said "F it, MARKET ORDER" (i.e. buy up to $X,XXX,XXX worth of contracts at any price). This is referred to as a sweep if funded to buy all/most of the contracts on offer (HFT shops snipe every contract at each specific price with a shotgun of limit orders, which is far safer, but something only near-market compute resources can do really well). For retail, or old-tech pros, if you want all the contracts quickly, you drop a market order loaded with big bucks and see what you get... BUT, some clever shark had contracts available for the reasonable sum of... $4,400, or something around that. I was too stunned to grab a screencap. The buy market order swept the book clean and ran right into that glorious, nigh-obscene backstop limit. So someone got nearly $440,000 PER CONTRACT that was, at the time theoretically priced at around $15,000. $425,000 loss... PER CONTRACT. Maybe I'm not giving the buyer enough credit.. you can get sniped like that even if you try to do a safety check of the order book first, but, especially in low liquidity environments, if a HFT can peak into your order flow (or maybe just observes a high volume of sweeps occurring), they can end up front running your sweep, pick off the reasonable contracts, and slam a ridiculous limit sell order into place before your order makes it to the exchange. Either way, I hope that sweep wasn't loaded for bear into the millions. If so... OUCH. Someone got cleaned out.
So, the lesson here folks... in a super high volatility, low-liquidity market, a market order will just run up the ladder into the first sell order it can find, and some very brutal people will put limit sells like that out there just in case they hit the jackpot. And someone did. If you're on the winning side, great. It can basically bankrupt you if you're on the losing side. My recommendation: Just don't try it. I wouldn't be surprised if really shady shenanigans were involved in this, but no way to know (normally that's crazy-type talk, but after today....peeking at order flow and sniping sweeps is one of the fastest, most financially devastating ways to bleed big long-side players, just sayin').
edit *so while I was too busy trying not to spit out my coffee to grab a screenshot, piddlesthethug was faster on the draw and captured this: https://imgur.com/gallery/RI1WOuu
Ok, so I guess my in-the-moment mental math was off by about 10%. Man, that hurts just thinking about the guy who lost on that trade.*
Back to the market action..

A Ray of Light Through the Darkness

So I was worried watching the crazy downward movement for two different reasons.
On the one hand, I was worried the momentum pros would get the best discounts on the dip (I'll admit, I FOMO'd in too early, unnecessarily raising my cost basis).
On the other hand, I was worried for the retail people on Robin Hood who might be bailing out into incredibly steep losses because they had only two options: Watch the slide, or bail. All while dealing with what looked to me like a broad-based cloud CDN outage as they tried to get info from WSB HQ, and wondering if the insta-flood of bot messages were actually real people this time, and that everyone else was bailing on them to leave them holding the bag.
But I saw the retail flag flying high on the 3rd market halt (IIRC), and I knew most would be ok. What did I see, you ask? Why, the glorious $211.00 / $5,000 bid/ask spread. WSB Reddit is down? Those crazy mofos give you the finger right on the ticker tape. I've been asked many times in the last few hours about why I was so sure shorts weren't covering on the down move. THIS is how I knew. For sure. It's in the market data itself.
edit So, there's feedback in the comments that this is likely more of a technical glitch. Man, at least it was hilarious in the moment. But also now I know maybe not to trust price updates when the spread between orders being posted is so wide. Maybe a technical limitation of TOS
I'll admit, I tried to one-up those bros with a 4206.90 limit sell order, but it never made it through. I'm impressed that the HFT guys at the hedge fund must have realized really quickly what a morale booster that kind of thing would have been, and kept a lower backstop ask in place almost continuously from then on I'm sure others tried the same thing. Occasionally $1,000 and other high-dollar asks would peak through from time to time from then on, which told me the long-side HFTs were probably successfully sniping the backstops regularly.
So, translating for those of you who found that confusing. First, such a high ask is basically a FU to the short-side (who, as you remember, need to eventually buy shares to cover their short positions). More importantly, as an indicator of retail sentiment, it meant that NO ONE ELSE WAS TRYING TO SELL AT ANY PRICE LOWER THAN $5,000. Absolutely no one was bailing out.
I laughed for a minute, then started getting a little worried. Holy cow.. NO retail selling into the fear? How are they resisting that kind of price move??
The answer, as we all know now... they weren't afraid... they weren't even worried. They were F*CKING PISSED.
Meanwhile the momentum guys and long-side HFTs keep gobbling up the generously donated shares that the short-side are plowing into their ladder attack. Lots of HFT duels going on as long-side HFTs try to intercept shares meant to travel between short-side HFT accounts for their ladder. You can tell when you see prices like $227.0001 constantly flying across the tape. Retail can't even attempt to enter an order like that--those are for the big boys with privileged low-latency access.
The fact that you can even see that on the tape with human eyes is really bad for the short-side people.
Why, you ask? Because it means liquidity is drying up, and fast.

The Liquidity Tide is Flowing Out Quickly. Who's Naked (short)?

Market technicals time. I still wish this sub would allow pictures so I could throw up a chart, but I guess a table will do fine.
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Date	Volume	Price at US Market Close
Friday, 1/22/21	197,157,196	$65.01
Monday, 1/25/21	177,874,00	$76.79
Tuesday, 1/26/21	178,587,974	$147.98
Wednesday, 1/27/21	93,396,666	$347.51
Thursday, 1/28/21	58,815,805	$193.60

What do I see? I see the shares available to trade dropping so fast that all the near-exchange compute power in the world won't let the short-side HFTs maintain order flow volume for their attacks. Many retail people asking me questions thought today was the heaviest trading. Nope--it was just the craziest.
What about the price dropping on Thursday? Is that a sign that the short-side pulled a miracle out and pushed price down against a parabolic move on even less volume than Wednesday? Is the long side running out of capital?
Nope. It means the short-side hedge funds are just about finished.
But wait, I thought the price needed to be higher for them to be taken out? How is it that price being lower is bad for them? Won't that allow them to cover at a lower price?
No, the volume is so low that they can't cover any meaningful fraction of their position without spiking the price parabolic almost instantly. Just not enough shares on offer at reasonable prices (especially when WSB keeps flashing you 6942.00s).
It's true, a higher price hurts, but the interest charge for one more day is just noise at this point. The only tick that will REALLY count is the last tick of trading on Friday.
In the meantime, the price drop (and watching the sparring in real time) tells me that the long-side whales and their HFT quants are so certain of the squeeze that they're no longer worried AT ALL about whether it will happen, and they aren't even worried at all about retail morale to help carry the water anymore.
Instead, they're now really, really worried about how CHEAPLY they can make it happen.
They are wondering if they can't edge out just a sliver more alpha out of what will already be a blow-out trade for the history books (probably). You see, to make it happen they just have to keep hoovering up shares. It doesn't matter what those shares cost. If you're certain that the squeeze is now locked in, why push the price up and pay more than you have to? Just keep pressing hard enough to force short-side to keep sending those tasty shares your way, but not so much you move the price. Short-side realizes this and doesn't try to drive price down too aggressively. They can't afford to let price run away, so they have to keep some pressure on at the lowest volume they can manage, but they don't want to push down too hard and give the long-side HFTs too deep of a discount and bleed their ammo out even faster. That dynamic keeps price within a narrow (for GME today, anyway) trading range for the rest of the day into the close.
Good plan guys, but those after market people are pushing the price up again. Damnit WSB bros and Euros, you're costing those poor long-side whales their extra 0.0000001% of alpha on this trade just so you can run up your green rockets... See, that's the kind of nonsense that just validates Lee Cooperman's concerns.
On a totally unrelated note, I have to say that I appreciate the shift in CNBC's reporting. Much more thoughtful and informed. Just please get a good market technician in there who will be willing to talk about what is going on under the hood if possible. A lot of people watching on the sidelines are far more terrified than they need to be because it all looks random to them. And they're worried that you guys look confused and worried--and if the experts on the news are worried....??!
You should be able to find one who has access to the really good data that we retailers can only guess at, who can explain it to us unwashed masses.

Ok, So.. Questions

There is no market justification for this. How can you tell me is this fundamentally sound and not just straight throwing money away irresponsibly?? (side note: not that that should matter--if you want to throw your money away why shouldn't you be allowed to?)
We're not trading in your securities pricing model. This isn't irrational just because your model says long and short positions are the same thing. The model is not a real market. There is asymmetrical counterparty risk here given the shorts are on the hook for all the money they have, and possibly all the money their brokers have, and possibly anyone with exposure to the broker too! You may want people to trade by the rules you want them to follow. But the rest of us trade in the real market as it is actually implemented. Remember? That's what you tell the retailers who take their accounts to zero. Remember what you told the KBIO short-squeezed people? They had fair warning that short positions carry infinite risk, including more than your initial investment. You guys know this. It's literally part of your job to know this.
But-but-the systemic risk!! This is Madness!
...Madness?
THIS. IS. THE MARKET!!! *Retail kicks the short-side hedge funds down an infinity loss black hole\*.
Ok, seriously though, that is actually a fundamentally sound, and properly profit-driven answer at least as justifiable as the hedge funds' justification for going >100% of float short. If they can be allowed to gamble INFINITE LOSSES because they expect to make profit on the possibility the company goes bankrupt, can't others do the inverse on the possibility the company I don't know.. doesn't go bankrupt and gets a better strategy from the team that created what is now a $43bn market cap company (CHWY) that does exactly some of the things GME needs to do (digital revenue growth) maybe? I mean, I first bought in on that fundamental value thesis in the 30s and then upped my cost basis given the asymmetry of risk in the technical analysis as an obvious no-brainer momentum trade. The squeeze is just, as WSB people might say, tendies raining down from on high as an added bonus.
I get that you disagree on the fundamental viability of GME. Great. Isn't that what makes a market?
Regarding the consequences of a squeeze, in practice my expectation was maybe at worst some kind of ex-market settlement after liquidation of the funds with exposure to keep things nice and orderly for the rest of the market. I mean, they handled the VW thing somehow right? I see now that I just underestimated elite hedge fund managers though--those guys are so hardcore (I'll explain why I think so a bit lower down).
If hedge fund people are so hardcore, how did the retail long side ever have a chance of winning this squeeze trade they're talking about?
Because it's an asymmetrical battle once you have short interest cornered. And the risk is also crazily asymmetrical in favor of the long side if short interest is what it is in GME. In fact, the hedge funds essentially cornered themselves without anyone even doing anything. They just dug themselves right in there. Kind of impressive really, in a weird way.
What does the short side need to cover? They need the price to be low, and they need to buy shares.
How does price move lower? You have to push share volume such that supply overwhelms demand and price therefore goes down (man, I knew econ 101 would come in handy someday).
But wait... if you have to sell shares to push the price down.. won't you just undo all your work when you have to buy it back to actually cover?
The trick is you have to push price down so hard, so fast, so unpredictably, that you SCARE OTHER PEOPLE into selling their shares too, because they're scared of taking losses. Their sales help push the price down for free! and then you scoop them up at discount price! Also, there are ways to make people scared other than price movement and fear of losses, when you get right down to it. So, you know, you just need to get really, really, really good at making people scared. Remember to add a line item to your budget to make sure you can really do it right.
On the other hand..
What does the long side need to do? They need to own as much of the shares as they can get their hands on. And then they need to hold on to them. They can't be weak hands either. They need to be hands that will hold even under the most intense heat of battle, and the immense pressure of mind-numbing fear... they need to be as if they were made of... diamond... (oh wow, maybe those WSB people kind of have a point here).
Why does this matter? Because at some point the sell side will eventually run out of shares to borrow. They simply won't be there, because they'll be safely tucked away in the long-side's accounts. Once you run out of shares to borrow and sell, you have no way to move the price anymore. You can't just drop a fat stack--excuse me, I mean suitcase (we're talking hedge fund money here after all)--of Benjamins on the ticker tape directly. Only shares. No more shares, no way to have any direct effect on the price whatsoever.
Ok, doesn't that just mean trading stops? Can't you just out-wait the long side then?
Well, you could.. until someone on the long side puts 1 share up on a 69420 ask, and an even crazier person actually buys at that price on the last tick on a Friday. Let's just say it gets really bad at that point.
Ok.. but how do the retail people actually get paid?
Well, to be quite honest, it's entirely up to each of them individually. You've seen the volumes being thrown around the past week+. I guarantee you every single retailer out there could have printed money multiple times trading that flow. If they choose to, and time it well. Or they could lose it all--this is the market. Some of them apparently seem to have some plan, or an implicit trust in certain individuals to help them know when to punch out. Maybe it works out, but maybe not. There will be financial casualties on the field for sure--this is the bare-knuckled capitalist jungle after all, remember? But everyone ponied up to the table with their own money somehow, so they all get to play in the big leagues just like everyone else. In theory, anyway.
And now, Probably the #1 question I've been asked on all of these posts has been: So what happens next? Do we get the infinity squeeze? Do the hedge funds go down?
Great questions. I don't know. No one does. That's what I've said every time, but I get that's a frustrating answer, so I'll write a bit more and speculate further. Please again understand these are my opinions with a degree of speculation I wouldn't normally put in a post.

The Market and the Economy. Main Street, Wall Street, and Washington

The pandemic has hurt so many people that it's hard to comprehend. Honestly, I don't even pretend to be able to. I have been crazy fortunate enough to almost not be affected at all. Honestly, it is a little unnerving to me how great the disconnect is between people who are doing fine (or better than fine, looking at my IRA) versus the people who are on the opposite side of the ever-widening divide that, let's be honest, has been growing wider since long before the pandemic.
People on the other side--who have been told they cannot work even if they want to, who wonder if congress will get it together to at least keep them from getting thrown out of their house if they have to keep taking one for the team for the good of all, are wondering if they're even living in the same reality.
Because all they see on the news each day is that the stock market is at record highs, or some amazing tech stocks have 10x'd in the last 6 months. How can that be happening during a pandemic? Because The Market is not The Economy. The Market looks forward to that brighter future that Economy types just need to wait for. Don't worry--it'll be here sometime before the end of the year. We think. We're making money on that assumption right now, anyway. Oh, by the way, if you're in The Market, you get to get richer as a minor, unearned side-effect of the solutions our governments have come up with to fight the pandemic.
Wow. That sounds amazing. How do I get to part of that world?
Retail fintech, baby. Physical assets like real estate might be a bit out of reach at the moment, but stocks will do. I can even buy fractional shares of BRK/A LOL.
Finally, I can trade for my own slice of heaven, watching that balance go up (and up--go stonks!!). Now I too get to dream the dream. I get to feel connected to that mythical world, The Market, rather than being stuck in the plain old Economy. Sure, I might blow up my account, but that's because it's the jungle. Bare-knuckled, big league capitalism going on right here, and at least I get to show up an put my shares on the table with everyone else. At least I'm playing the same game. Everyone has to start somewhere--at least now I get to start, even if I have to learn my lesson by zeroing my account a few times. I've basically had to deal with what felt like my life zeroing out a few times before. This is number on a screen going to 0 is nothing.
Laugh or cry, right? I'll post my losses on WSB and at least get some laughs.
Geez, some of the people here are making bank. I better learn from them and see if they'll let me in on their trades. Wow... this actually might work. I don't understand yet, but I trust these guys telling me to hold onto this crazy trade. I don't understand it, but all the memes say it's going to be big.
...WOW... I can pay off my credit card with this number. Do I punch out now? No? Hold?... Ok, getting nervous watching the number go down but I trust you freaks. We're still in the jungle, but at least I'm in with with my posse now. Market open tomorrow--we ride the rocket baby! And if it goes down, at least I'm going down with my crew. At least if that happens the memes will be so hilarious I'll forget to cry.
Wow.. I can't believe it... we might actually pull this off. Laugh at us now, "pros"!
We're in The Market now, and Market rules tell us what is going to happen. We're getting all that hedge fund money Right? Right?
Maybe.
First, I say maybe because nothing is ever guaranteed until it clears. Secondly, because the rules of The Market are not as perfectly enforced as we would like to assume. We are also finding out they may not be perfectly fair. The Market most experts are willing to talk about is really more like the ideal The Market is supposed to be. This is the version of the market I make my trading decisions in. However, the Real Market gets strange and unpredictable at the edges, when things are taken to extremes, or rules are pushed beyond the breaking point, or some of the mechanics deep in the guts of the Real Market get stretched. GME ticks basically all of those boxes, which is why so many people are getting nervous (aside from the crazy money they might lose). It's also important to remember that the sheer amount of money flowing through the market has distorting power unto itself. Because it's money, and people really, really, really like their money--especially when they're used to having a lot of it, and rules involving that kind of money tend to look more... flexible, shall we say.
Ok, back to GME. If this situation with GME is allowed to play out to its conclusion in The Market, we'll see what happens. I think all the long-side people get the chance to be paid (what, I'm not sure--and remember, you have to actually sell your position at some point or it's all still just numbers on your screen), but no one knows for certain.
But this might legitimately get so big that it spills out of The Market and back into The Economy.
Geez, and here I thought the point of all of this was so that we all get to make so much money we wouldn't ever have to think and worry about that thing again.
Unfortunately, while he's kind of a buzzkill, Thomas Petterfy has a point. This could be a serious problem.
It might blow out The Market, which will definitely crap on The Economy, which as we all know from hard experience, will seriously crush Main Street.
If it's that big a deal, we may even need Washington to be involved. Once that happens, who knows what to expect.. this kind of scenario being possible is why I've been saying I have no idea how this ends, and no one else does either.
How did we end up in this ridiculous situation? From GAMESTOP?? And it's not Retail's fault the situation is what it is.. why is everyone telling US that we need to back down to save The Market?? What about the short-side hedge funds that slammed that risk into the system to begin with?? We're just playing by the rules of The Market!!
Well, here are my thoughts, opinions, and some even further speculation... This may be total fantasy land stuff here, but since I keep getting asked I'll share anyway. Just keep that disclaimer in mind.

A Study in Big Finance Power Moves: If you owe the bank $10,000, it's your problem...

What happens when you owe money you have no way to pay back? It's a scary question to have to face personally. Still, on balance and on average, if you're fortunate enough to have access to credit the borrowing is a risk that is worth taking (especially if you're reasonably careful). Lenders can take a risk loaning you money, you take a risk by borrowing in order to do something now that you would otherwise have had to wait a long time or maybe would never have realistically been able to do otherwise. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Sometimes it's due to reasons totally beyond your control. In any case, if you find yourself there you have no choice but to dust yourself off, pick yourself up as best as you can, and try to move on and rebuild. A lot of people had to learn that in 2008. Man that year really sucked.
Wall street learned their lessons too. Most learned what I think most of us would consider the right lessons--lessons about risk management, and the need to guard vigilantly against systemic risk, concentration of risk through excess concentration of leverage on common assets, etc. Many suspect that at least a few others may have learned an entirely different set of, shall we say, unhealthy lessons. Also, to try to be completely fair, maybe managing other peoples' money on 10x+ leverage comes with a kind of pressure that just clouds your judgement. I could actually, genuinely buy that. I know I make mistakes under pressure even when I'm trading risk capital I could totally lose with no real consequence. Whatever the motive, here's my read on what's happening:
First, remember that as much fun as WSB are making of the short-side hedge fund guys right now, those guys are smart. Scary smart. Keep that in mind.
Next, let's put ourselves in their shoes.
If you're a high-alpha hedge fund manager slinging trades on a $20bn 10x leveraged to 200bn portfolio, get caught in a bad situation, and are down mark-to-market several hundred million.. what do you do? Do you take your losses and try again next time? Hell no.
You're elite. You don't realize losses--you double down--you can still save this trade no sweat.
But what if that doesn't work out so well and you're in the hole >$2bn? Obvious double down. Need you ask? I'm net up on the rest of my positions (of course), and the momentum when this thing makes its mean reversion move will be so hot you can almost taste the alpha from here. Speaking of momentum, imagine the move if your friends on TV start hyping the story harder! Genius!
Ok, so that still didn't work... this is now a frigging 7 sigma departure from your modeled risk, and you're now locked into a situation that is about as close to mathematically impossible to escape as you can get in the real world, and quickly converging on infinite downside. Holy crap. The fund might be liquidated by your prime broker by tomorrow morning--and man, even the broker is freaking out. F'in Elon Musk and his twitter! You're cancelling your advance booking on his rocket ship to Mars first thing tomorrow... Ok, focus--this might legit impact your total annual return. You need a plan, and you know the smartest people on the planet, right? The masters of the universe! Awesome--they've even seen this kind of thing before and still have the playbook!! Of course! It's obvious now--you borrow a few more billion and double down again first thing in the morning. So simple. Sticky note that Mars trip cancellation so you don't forget.
Ok... so that didn't work? You even cashed in some pretty heavy chits too. Ah well, that was a long shot anyway. So where were you? Oh yeah.. if shenanigans don't work, skip to page 10...
...Which says, of course, to double down again. Anyone even keeping track anymore? Oh, S3 says it's $40bn and we're going parabolic? Man, that chart gives me goosebumps. All according to plan...
So what happens tomorrow? One possible outcome of PURE FANTASTIC SPECULATION...
End of the week--phew. Never though it'd come. Where are you at now?... Over $9000^\)!!! Wow. You did it boys, and as a bonus the memes will be so sweet.
^\)side note: add 8 zeros to the end...
Awesome--your problems have been solved. Because...
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..
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BOOM
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Now it's EVERYONE's problem. Come at me, Chamath, THIS is REAL baller shit.
Now all you gotta do is make all the hysterical retirees watching their IRAs hanging in the balance blame those WSB kids. Hahaha. Boomers, amirite? hate when those kids step on their law--I mean IRAs. GG guys, keep you memes. THAT is how it's done.
Ok, but seriously, I hope that's not how it ends. I guess we just take it day by day at this point.
Apologies for the length. Good luck in the market!
Also, apologies in advance for formatting, spelling, and grammatical errors. I was typing this thing in between doing all kinds of other things for most of the day.
Edit getting a bunch of questions on if it's possible the hedge funds are finding ways to cover in spite of my assumptions. Of course. I'm a retail guy trying to read the charts and price action. I don't have any special tools like the pros may have.

Welp, there it is. We're officially out of football until the "kinda combines" and draft. Hopefully by the time camps and preseason comes around, we start to see glimpses of a post(ish?) Covid-19 landscape - both personally and also in the sportsverse.
I've really tried to put in a lot of work through the season adjusting my thoughts on rookies - on the fly - based on adding to the sample. The reactions and style of my methodology has clear strengths and weaknesses. No better were the weaknesses illustrated than overreacting to JT's abysmal stretch midseason. On the flipside, my "I'm worried about Reagor" (quite earlier than most!) and "The Bell signing is going to crush CEH for at least this year" were valid concerns. And I definitely was one of the earlier guys to start hyping Tee Higgins once he showed some signs. That said - my methodology is mostly a barometer of perceived value, and the combination of an extremely talented 2020 Draft Class as well as a Covid-19 impacted year probably made for a very non-typical year as far as Rookie evaluation goes.
Before the season started, I did a mildly popular [Dynasty 2020 Rookie Stock Watch] (and at the request of the community, I did weekly updates, and will continue doing this next year! In case you missed previous weeks, you can find week 1 here, week 2 here, week 3 here, week 4 here, week 5 here, week 6 here, week 7 here. week 8 here, week 9 here, week 10 here, week 11 here, week 12 here, week 13 here, week 14 here, week 15 here, and week 16 here.
As this is my last "risers and fallers" of the 2020 class, my disclaimers are a LITTLE different and I'd encourage you to read them before diving in.

1. I consider where I would now draft this player if we were to redo a 1QB rookie draft NOW, after a full season is in the books. Since higher picks are SO MUCH MORE VALUABLE, having a guy drop from 1.01 to 1.07 is a much bigger value loss than if a guy drops from 2.12 to 4.05. Also baked into my decisions of who is a riser and faller is how I feel the player looks to fit into future dynasty start up rankings. In some cases, a player ranked #1 and a player ranked #4 could feel miles apart on a rookie ranking, but I very well might consider them just as close (3 spots difference) in a full startup as well!
2. When I try to determine if a player has risen or fallen, I like to weigh what some of the perceptions were on that player's upside, and if any of those perceptions appear to no longer be true or at least need to be tempered.
3. We absolutely need to weigh in what the rookie did with the opportunities (or lack thereof) in their opening season. A huge factor in the final valuation of the 2020 rookies is this question: "What will they be worth before the 2021 season?" - and that question is highly impacted by volume and opportunity (and how they did with it!) in year 1.
4. Just because I have someone as a riser or faller doesn't mean I think you should buy/sell them at bad value. It's the same concept as stocks - if you believe in the fundamentals of the company you invested in, you don't sell off yet. 2020 was a WEIRD year. I expect we will have more "2nd year breakouts" than normal as a result. Similarly, after a stock skyrockets is not usually the best time to buy in - you'd want to wait for a brief regression before that. You should **always** make a value play, not merely selling or buying at cost.
5. Like Matthew Berry has said - just because a guy is on my faller list doesn't mean I like them less than a guy on my riser list. This is just my evaluation of their value relative to where it was before this season. These rankings are an attempt to really lock in where I feel the player will rank on a 2021 Startup draft compared to other rookies.

With that out of the way, let's dive in!

Biggest 2020 Season risers:

​

1. James Robinson. There really can be no answer other than JRob for the biggest riser of the season. In most drafts, he was not taken in the first 5 rounds. And if he was, it was still a VERY late flyer - and we've heard many stories of him being taken and cut and picked up by someone else. Wherever you have James Robinson now - he was virtually nothing more than "a very deep sleeper blip who might take over in a year when Fournette is gone". Well, that takeover happened, and it happened a year early. Robinson won a lot of people money this year, even as he disappeared by season end - because he still got you to the dance. For that reason, Robinson wins the title as the absolute biggest riser of the year.
2. Antonio Gibson. Depending on when you drafted (I drafted earlyish June) Gibson was a late 2nd/early 3rd. Once news started breaking regarding Guice (still makes me yikes when I type his name!) and Peterson was cut, Gibson climbed charts quickly. His profile was that of an extremely talented back with a TINY sample size running the ball. Now that sample size is a bit bigger, and we like what we see. He has all the makings of a guy who could be an RB1 type for the next few years, and big play potential to break open any touch. We're counting on an uptick in passing game usage in 2021, and crossing our fingers for some improvement at the QB position.
3. Jonathan Taylor. How does JT making the biggest riser list when he was already high to start the year? **Perceived startup value**. At this point, JT is a 1st half of the 1st round guy in tons of Dynasty Startups. That's a huge spike from where he was at the start of the year. You're looking at an RB that in many eyes is worth more than **every single WR playing football right now**. I'm not saying that's the precisely correct valuation for a player I embarrassingly was worried about for a few weeks... but it's where he's valued on a lot of charts now. So take it for what it is - Taylor is the single most valuable piece of the 2020 Draft Class.
4. Justin Jefferson. Similar narrative to Taylor - and you could make the case that I should swap these two guys, considering JT was a top 2 pick and JJeff was around 1.08-1.10. Not going to argue that really. Let's just say JJeff vaulted to the top of the WR class with a record-breaking year and is now the clear-cut 1 of a class where he started as the 3 or 4 on most lists. Heck - Jefferson's explosion has impacted the 2021 class valuations (Chase, anyone?) and has easily put him as a Dynasty Startup top 5 WR type.
5. Tee Higgins. This guy was simply not making it as a 1st round pick in a LOT of 1QB rookie drafts. Now he sits pretty comfortably as WR3 or 4, depending on who you ask. A lot of questions we have about Lamb's 2021 production also echo for Higgins - and we desperately want both to be reunited with their gunslingers as soon as possible. But where fears existed of Higgins being a boom-or-bust player, those fears have been silenced. It's boom.

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Honorable mentions: I would be remiss if I didn't mention the great rookie years of Aiyuk and Claypool - both guys are positioned well to be strong WRs for any roster going forward, and both have upside potential to be even more than the greatness they've already flashed. I'm not sleeping on them. In addition, Herbert had a stellar season and should be looked at as the clear QB1 of the 2020 class.

Biggest 2020 Season fallers:

​

1. Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Look! We're talking about Vaughn again! A guy who was going as early as 1.08 in 1QB now would likely not even be a top 3 round pick. He's the inverse James Robinson. Not much else to say. He did put out a few nice plays here and there, but ended the season as effectively the RB4 on the Bucs. That could change in the offseason though, so if you bought stocks in Vaughn, don't cut bait at this point when there's a chance he heads into 2021 as Tampa's RB2.
2. Jalen Reagor. Depending on who you ask, Reagor was being taken as high as WR3 in the 2020 class. Despite his mediocre final season in college, people were sold on his talent and the barren Eagle's WR room. Instead, Reagor battled injuries, terrible QB play, and even when he did play, he was frequently outshined by... Travis Fulgham and Greg Ward. Don't get me wrong, anyone who has watched a bit of Eagles Football (firstly, pity them!) can tell that Reagor is way more talented than JJAW. But it might not be enough. In a year where so many great players were taken, Reagor feels like a fringe WR2 type at best, going forward.
3. Henry Ruggs. Taken as a back-end Rookie 1st, Ruggs flashed early, got hurt, and then totally fell off the map. Lots to be concerned about here as he rarely looked like anything more than an extremely expensive decoy who needs to catch all 3 of his targets per game to have a chance at a fantasy stat line worth starting. His value is a bit sticky because you can't picture the Raiders giving up on their 1st round draft pick. However, we're now left hoping that something changes in his usage and attention in 2021. Hoping for change is not the position you want to be in for a fantasy asset.
4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire. First, I can't knock CEH's strong job in an otherwise abysmal KC performance in the Super Bowl. He was extremely efficient per touch, and was one of the few bright spots in the game. The problem? Despite averaging almost 8 yards a touch, CEH only managed 11 touches. The early sparks he showed fizzled once Bell was eligible to play, as did his snap share and touch share. As of now, his usage simply isn't trending anywhere that would make him a top 6 pick if we were re-drafting the 2020 class. That's a significant drop, and we've gotta have him on the list as a result. I worry that the 2021 KC offense will use him the same way they used him the second half of the 2020 season. If that's the case, he's a low end RB2/very strong flex/RB3.
5. Bryan Edwards. One of 2020's biggest hype darlings found himself barely playing after getting hurt early. A guy who peaked as going nearly in the 1st round would now likely be a middle 3rd if the class was redrafted. Between Edwards and Ruggs, the Raiders managed to be the only team with two players to show up on the list, and having them both be fallers is not an encouraging sign. My gut tells me ONE of them might turn it around, but even that is a coinflip at this point. As I said in my disclaimer - it's possible a non-Covid year will allow some of these guys to be late bloomers.

How I rank them right now
(in 1QB, but I will include where I would bump the QBs up to in 2QB)
Tier 1, all 3 pretty similar in value for me
01 Jonathan Taylor
02 Justin Jefferson
03 Cam Akers
04 D'Andre Swift
05 Antonio Gibson
Tier 1.5 (not a true break from tier 1, very close in value)
06 JK Dobbins
07 CeeDee Lamb
08 Tee Higgins
09 James Robinson
10 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tier 2
11 Brandon Aiyuk
12 Chase Claypool
13 Justin Herbert (1.01 in 2QB/SF)
Tier 3
14 Jerry Jeudy
15 Laviska Shenault
16 AJ Dillon
17 Michael Pittman Jr
18 Denzel Mims
19 Jalen Reagor
Tier 4
20 Darnell Mooney
21 Joe Burrow (1.02-1.05 in 2QB/SF)
22 Tua Tagovailoa (1.03-1.06 in 2QB/SF - but definitely behind Burrow)
23 Henry Ruggs III
24 Gabriel Davis
Tier 5
25 Zach Moss
26 Jalen Hurts (late 1st in 2QB/SF)
27 Bryan Edwards
28 KJ Hamler
29 Lynn Bowden Jr. (but he drops to mid 30's if he loses RB eligibility in 2021... or goes to jail!)
30 Van Jefferson
31 Donovan Peoples-Jones
32 Cole Kmet
Tier 6
33 Devin Duvernay
34 La'Mical Perine
35 Collin Johnson
36 Quintez Cephus
37 Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tier 7
38 Darrynton Evans
39 Tyler Johnson
40 Harrison Bryant
41 Anthony McFarland Jr
42 Salvon Ahmed
43 Joshua Kelley
44 Deejay Dallas
45 Jordan Love (late 2nd in SF)
46 Antonio Gandy-Golden
47 Albert Okwuegbunam
48 Adam Trautman
Obligatory Kicker Shoutout:
49 Tyler Bass
50 Rodrigo Blankenship
Last words:
Thank you so much for the support and dialogue throughout the year. It's been a joy and blessing to write this and be a distraction from the world while you reply and praise/criticize me shoot-from-the-hip takes. After the NFL draft, I'll be ready to do it all again with the 2021 class. Now to find my way onto a vaccine list...
As always, I'll try to engaged with each and every reply. :)

Here are some tips for those of you who are starting out with bows, or maybe wanting to learn more about them, from someone who has over 31,000 crucible final blows with them over the course of the 2 or so years that they've been in the game.If there's something I've missed, I'd like to know in the comments so that I can add it to the post, or at the least to my own knowledge.
In general, there are standard rolls that are perfect for lightweight and precision frame bows.
Lightweights have a few more options for you, and it depends on how you are using them.
The only thing that persists across all of the bows is that you're aiming for Fiberglass Arrowshaft as your second column perk - this is because of the effect to the accuracy stat.

Accuracy and Stability

Accuracy is to increase the length of the aim assist cone, and be able to hit shots easier at a distance, and the stability stat is to keep the cone from expanding as much in the air, and to help you deal with close quarters, mid range, hip fire and fast firing engagements.
The recoil direction actually depicts which side your bow is likely to land after firing a shot, so counterbalance mods may have a small effect here

Lightweights

The String and Masterwork

The string and masterwork are very much tied together on these frames, and it depends on what you're going for.
There's a draw time cap of 540 on lightweight frames (even the perk archers tempo only reduces this to around 536) - If you have Elastic String, I would recommend an Accuracy Masterwork, however, you can get away with a Reload Masterwork if you have Moving Target, or another accuracy increasing perk available. For the strings with a higher draw time, you'll want a draw time masterwork almost every time. If you're wanting handling, go with Flexible String - It's an absolutely solid choice on the Arsenic Bite, but if you want to increase your accuracy, Polymer String is the play.

Precision Frames

The String and Masterwork

You're always going to want Elastic String on these frames. Choose between a Draw Time or a Reload Masterwork.
I personally prefer the Draw Time of 576, over the reload bonus, which can be catered to with mods and exotics

Legendary Damage Numbers and Perks

Draw Type	Precision	Lightweight
No Draw Body	↓ 61	↑ 71
Quarter Draw Body	↓ 67	↑ 76
Half Draw Body	↑ 91	↓ 81
Full Draw Body	↑ 101	↓ 86
Over Draw Body	↑ 95	↓ 84
No Draw Precision	↓ 91	↑ 113
Quarter Draw Precision	↓ 100	↑ 121
Half Draw Precision	↓ 109	↑ 129
Full Draw Precision	↑ 152	↓ 138
Over Draw Precision	↑ 143	↓ 134

Explosive Heads will take half of the damage from the original arrow and put it into a blast radius, instead of being a flat damage number - this means that the more you draw back, the more your explosion will do. This can range from 31-51 (precision frames) and 35-43 (lightweights).Note: Explosive Heads themselves are unaffected by Rampage, Swashbuckler and other damage related perks.
Rampage on precision frames will 1 tap at 3x, or at 1x with most other damage buffs. On lightweights it's used to up the weapon consistency. 2 bodyshots with 1x rampage will kill 4th tier resil and less, and 2x will double body any guardian.
Dragonfly will do around 49-56 damage while I was testing, and when you add dragonfly spec, it increases to 95.
Swashbuckler is quite possibly the most broken damage perk on bows. Pair with a damage buffing melee (or any other damage buff) on lightweights to one shot kill (before the buff it will do 183 to the head at x5). Precision Frames will deal 202 on a perfect draw at x5, killing every guardian.
Rapid Hit is pretty much a dead perk if you have bow reloader, as it will go up to around x3 before it stops having an effect. If you have anything else that enhances reload speed (ophidian aspects come to mind as a great one) then it really becomes useless.
Archers Tempo is a risky perk to have. You'll want it on a bow with a draw time that is greater than its archetypes minimum to get any noticeable effect out of it, but if you feel like you need more accuracy and prefer a longer draw because of that, then this will be the perk for you. I’ll be trying to get some more numbers for this over the next week or so.
Moving Target and Surplus are two neutral perks that are fantastic. If you use your abilities often, I'd go with moving target, but a heart of inmost light titan or someone more conservative with their abilities may prefer surplus.
Snapshot Sights is a great perk on bows, and will give you a good transition point if you're used to Le Mon's ADS speed.
Opening Shot is a fantastic perk if you're having issues with the accuracy (perhaps you don't have Fiberglass in the second column) - and even if you do, this will make your shots crisp as all hell at a distance.
Killing Wind is absolutely a fantastic perk to go for, and going for Natural Fletching instead of Fiberglass can be recommended in this case, as the stability + the extra weapon aim assist range will doubly effect the accuracy cone
Sympathetic Arsenal is the archers auto loading holster, meaning you can use your killing capacity to reload that machine gun in PvE, or the quickdraw fusion in your back pocket in PvP. Don’t sleep on the pairing with fighting lion either, double dipping for consistency on the thin the herd playstyle, always having your heavy loaded
Firmly Planted is an interesting one, as it will increase accuracy, stability and aim down sights speed while crouched - this also procs on slides - and drawing back your arrow at the start of a slide will mean it’s drawn by the time you’ve finished, the whole time, your arrows will be more sticky

Lightweight Frames

A no draw headshot and no draw body shot will kill at 2nd tier resil, but a quarter draw is needed above that for 1 of the arrows - preferably the head to cover most resilience tiers, but a body should cover 6th tier and less.

Precision Frames

You're gonna need to flick shot the head twice at a quarter draw or more, or fully draw and hit the head before you can flickshot an arrow into someones body. Note: A guardian at max resilience will survive the double quarter draw flick approach
You can also body shot and melee with this build with no buffs in a perfect draw (max resil) or an overdraw (6th tier or lower)

Exotic Damage Numbers

Draw Type	Le Monarque	Trinity Ghoul	Wishender	Leviathans Breath
No Draw Body	61	21x3	61+30	51
Quarter Draw Body	67	23x3	65+30	100
Half Draw Body	91	25x3	68+30	143
Full Draw Body	101+24	35x3	72+30	343
Over Draw Body	95	33x3	71+30	300
No Draw Precision	91	31x3	109+30	91
Quarter Draw Precision	100	34x3	116+30	159
Half Draw Precision	109	37x3	122+31	228
Full Draw Precision	152+24	52x3	129+30	548
Over Draw Precision	143	49x3	126+30	479

Vorpal Weapon (Precision Frame) Damage Numbers

Super	Head	Body
Goldie	181	121
Chaos Reach	145	97
Blade Barrage	124	83
Well of Radiance	121	81
Daybreak	119	79
Hammers	119	79
Nova Warp	119	79
Shadebinder	119	79
Spectral Blades	117	78
Sentinel	114	76
Striker	114	76
Arc Staff	114	76
Burning Maul	114	76
Thundercrash	114	76
Tether (while tethering)	114	76
Revenant	114	76
Spectral Blades (Invis)	111	74
Behemoth	97	65

The Reticle and Draw Length

⊙ | | | - This is what the reticle looks like when you aren't drawn back (well, this is sideways, but you get the idea) - when you draw back your arrow, the bottom lines will be accurate for a quarter draw and the lines will get closer together past the half draw mark to keep accurately representing the flight distance - ⊙||| - before disappearing entirely when you're fully drawn back and you no longer have to lead your target - ⊙
If you're sprinting towards a target, tap/pull back in the opposite direction to be able to get that reticle back (same as every weapon in destiny) so you can judge the distance to draw time and actually start drawing back your bow without having a small delay or whiff entirely because of it cancelling your sprint instead of drawing
When you're aimed down sights, there is a line at the bottom of the reticle, that will be accurate up to around 15 and 20 meters before you have to judge additional falloff height (precision and lightweight no-draw ranges respectively) this distance will increase the longer that you draw.

Draw Type	Precision	Lightweight	Line
No Draw	↓ 12m	↑ 18m	Bottom
Quarter Draw	↑ 24m	↓ 20m	Middle
Half Draw	↑ 31m	↓ 25m	Top

Full draws and near perfect draws will tend towards being on target to the center of the reticle - and it's just about practice (note, when I'm using quarters and halves, it's more about where the string is drawn back visually, rather than how long you've been drawing back, as that depends on what string you have).
The lower draws can be effective, but they do require learning of how your draw time effects the flight path and where you have to release your shot to get the best accuracy - if you want to rely more on flick shots and getting your accuracy down, you could go for a higher draw time lightweight frame to train with before increasing the draw time when you’re able to judge your shots better.
A perfect draw isn't when the bow starts glowing, there's about an 8 frame window just before where the arrow will release silently and do full damage. That's the perfect draw.

Builds

Get Down Mr President

• Biting Winds with Swashbuckler
• Insurmountable Skull Fort on Top Tree Striker

Simply shoulder charge your way to 1 tap headshots

But I am the shotgun...

• One Two Punch shotgun in your kinetic slot
• Liars Handshakes
• Top Tree Arc Strider
• Trinity Ghoul

Shoot with the shotgun, 1 down, punch the next, 2 down, dodge and switch to Trinity Ghoul, punch again, 3 down, shoot the floor with trinity and carry on punching... FANTASTIC WORK You now have all of the combination blow, so just trinity the floor and punch away

Thomas the Siege Engine

• Khepri's Horn
• Deafening Whisper
• Whispering Slab with Swashbuckler
• Sunspot Titan with Thermite Grenades

I'm not sure if this one even needs explaining - but when you make a sunspot, stand in it and have swashbuckler, you'll one tap

Wrath of Cupid

• Top Tree Dawn
• Karnstein Armlets
• Biting Winds with Swash

Like with the first build, except you can deliver the punch down the hallway heal from it, pop heat rises for perfect in air accuracy and kills to get your melee back to start the entire process again

Corrosive Sting

• Le Monarque
• Khepri's Sting
• Middle Tree Night Stalker

Invis when you're crouching and get that precision final blow, poison clouds everywhere and the ability to melee yourself out of most situations, this will be the build for you if you like watching your opponents suffer in their final moments. Also, note, if you hit someones face with your smoke from a distance and they stay in the cloud, they're probably going to die from that alone

A Hunger For Wishes

• Blink Devour Warlock
• Autoloading Holster Demolitionist Truth Teller
• Wishender
• Felwinters Helm

You can see through walls, you can bounce grenades off of walls, you can no draw bodyshot guardians and clean them up with a melee to heal and you can debuff the surrounding enemies with a fully charged melee. I don’t even know what the damage numbers are on regular guardians on a full draw, it doesn’t display, it just deletes and you heal. Run alongside your favourite behemoth buddy for their tectonic harvest for the best results
Edit
I’m going to start working on a PvE post like this, as there will be a lot more damage numbers - I hope that you don’t mind waiting until next season for it though

Yes, as you read, cross post from boringpeople, but it's well worth a read, as long as it is. All credit to u/jn_ku, and go read the other parts. Godspeed autists
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Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average ~$67--I have to admit, the drop today was too tasty so my cost basis went up from yesterday)/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. In this post I will go a little further and speculate more than I'd normally do in a post due to the questions I've been getting, so fair warning, some of it might be very wrong. I suspect we'll learn some of the truth years from now when some investigative journalist writes a book about it.
Thank you everyone for the comments and questions on the first and second post on this topic.
Today was a study in the power of fear, courage, and the levers you can pull when you wield billions of dollars...
Woops, excuse me. I'm sorry hedge fund guys... I meant trillions of dollars--I just briefly forget you control not just your own but a lot of other peoples' money too for a moment there.
Also, for people still trading this on market-based rationale (as I am), it was a good day to measure the conviction behind your thesis. I like to think I have conviction, but in case you are somehow not yet familiar with the legend of DFV, you need to see these posts (fair warning, nsfw, and some may be offended/triggered by the crude language). The last two posts might be impressive, but you should follow it in chronological order and pay attention to the evolution of sentiment in the comments to experience true enlightenment.
Anyway, I apologize, but this post will be very long--there's just a lot to unpack.
Pre-Market
Disclaimer: given yesterday's pre-market action I didn't even pay attention to the screen until near retail pre-market. I'm less confident in my ability to read what's going on in a historical chart vs the feel I get watching live, but I'll try.
Early in the pre-market it looks to me like some momentum traders are taking profit, discounting the probability that the short-side will give them a deep discount later, which you can reasonably assume given the strategy they ran yesterday. If they're right they can sell some small volume into the pre-market top, wait for the hedge funds try to run the price back down, and then lever up the gains even higher buying the dip. Buy-side here look to me like people FOMOing and YOLOing in at any price to grab their slice of gainz, or what looks to be market history in the making. No way are short-side hedge funds trying to cover anything at these prices.
Mark Cuban--well said! Free markets baby!
Mohamed El-Erian is money in the bank as always. "upgrade in quality" on the pandemic drop was the best, clearest actionable call while most were at peak panic, and boy did it print. Your identifying the bubble as the excessive short (vs blaming retail activity) is money yet again. Also, The PAIN TRADE (sorry, later interview segment I only have on DVR, couldn't find on youtube--maybe someone else can)!
The short attack starts, but I'm hoping no one was panicking this time--we've seen it before. Looks like the momentum guys are minting money buying the double dip into market open.
CNBC, please get a good market technician to explain the market action. Buy-side dominance, sell-side share availability evaporating into nothing (look at day-by-day volume last few days), this thing is now at runaway supercritical mass. There is no changing the trajectory unless you can change the very fabric of the market and the rules behind it (woops, I guess I should have knocked on wood there).
If you know the mechanics, what's happening in the market with GME is not mysterious AT ALL. I feel like you guys are trying to scare retail out early "for their own good" (with all sincerity, to your credit) rather than explain what's happening. Possibly you also fear that explaining it would equate to enabling/encouraging people to keep trying to do it inappropriately (possibly fair point, but at least come out and say that if that's the case). Outside the market, however...wow.
You Thought Yesterday Was Fear? THIS is Fear!
Ok short-side people, my hat is off to you. Just when I thought shouting fire in a locked theater was fear mongering poetry in motion, you went and took it to 11. What's even better? Yelling fire in a theater with only one exit. That way people can cause the financial equivalent of stampede casualties. Absolutely brilliant.
Robin Hood disables buying of GME, AMC, and a few of the other WSB favorites. Other brokerages do the same. Even for people on 0% margin. Man, and here I thought I had seen it all yesterday.
Side note: I will give a shout out to TD Ameritrade. You guys got erroneously lumped together with RH during an early CNBC segment, but you telegraphed the volatility risk management changes and gradually ramped up margin requirements over the past week. No one on your platform should have been surprised if they were paying attention. And you didn't stop anyone from trading their own money at any point in time. My account balance thanks you. I heard others may have had problems, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt given the DDOS attacks that were flyiing around
Robin Hood. Seriously WTF. I'm sure it was TOTALLY coincidence that your big announcements happen almost precisely when what has to be one of the best and most aggressive short ladder attacks of all time starts painting the tape, what looked like a DDOS attack on Reddit's CDN infrastructure (pretty certain it was the CDN because other stuff got taken out at the same time too), and a flood of bots hit social media (ok, short-side, this last one is getting old).
Taking out a large-scale cloud CDN is real big boy stuff though, so I wouldn't entirely rule out nation state type action--those guys are good at sniffing out opportunities to foment social unrest.
Anyway, at this point, as the market dives, I have to admit I was worried for a moment. Not that somehow the short-side would win (hah! the long-side whales in the pond know what's up), but that a lot of retail would get hurt in the action. That concern subsided quite a bit on the third halt on that slide. But first...
A side lesson on market orders
Someone printed bonus bank big time (and someone lost--I feel your pain, whoever you are).
During the face-ripping volatility my play money account briefly ascended to rarified heights of 7 figures. It took me a second to realize it, then another second to process it. Then, as soon as it clicked, that one, glorious moment in time was gone.
What happened?
During the insane chop of the short ladder attack, someone decided to sweep the 29 Jan 21 115 Call contracts, but they couldn't get a grip on the price, which was going coast to coast as IV blew up and the price was being slammed around. So whoever was trying to buy said "F it, MARKET ORDER" (i.e. buy up to $X,XXX,XXX worth of contracts at any price). This is referred to as a sweep if funded to buy all/most of the contracts on offer (HFT shops snipe every contract at each specific price with a shotgun of limit orders, which is far safer, but something only near-market compute resources can do really well). For retail, or old-tech pros, if you want all the contracts quickly, you drop a market order loaded with big bucks and see what you get... BUT, some clever shark had contracts available for the reasonable sum of... $4,400, or something around that. I was too stunned to grab a screencap. The buy market order swept the book clean and ran right into that glorious, nigh-obscene backstop limit. So someone got nearly $440,000 PER CONTRACT that was, at the time theoretically priced at around $15,000. $425,000 loss... PER CONTRACT. Maybe I'm not giving the buyer enough credit.. you can get sniped like that even if you try to do a safety check of the order book first, but, especially in low liquidity environments, if a HFT can peak into your order flow (or maybe just observes a high volume of sweeps occurring), they can end up front running your sweep, pick off the reasonable contracts, and slam a ridiculous limit sell order into place before your order makes it to the exchange. Either way, I hope that sweep wasn't loaded for bear into the millions. If so... OUCH. Someone got cleaned out.
So, the lesson here folks... in a super high volatility, low-liquidity market, a market order will just run up the ladder into the first sell order it can find, and some very brutal people will put limit sells like that out there just in case they hit the jackpot. And someone did. If you're on the winning side, great. It can basically bankrupt you if you're on the losing side. My recommendation: Just don't try it. I wouldn't be surprised if really shady shenanigans were involved in this, but no way to know (normally that's crazy-type talk, but after today....peeking at order flow and sniping sweeps is one of the fastest, most financially devastating ways to bleed big long-side players, just sayin').
Back to the market action..
A Ray of Light Through the Darkness
So I was worried watching the crazy downward movement for two different reasons.
On the one hand, I was worried the momentum pros would get the best discounts on the dip (I'll admit, I FOMO'd in too early, unnecessarily raising my cost basis).
On the other hand, I was worried for the retail people on Robin Hood who might be bailing out into incredibly steep losses because they had only two options: Watch the slide, or bail. All while dealing with what looked to me like a broad-based cloud CDN outage as they tried to get info from WSB HQ, and wondering if the insta-flood of bot messages were actually real people this time, and that everyone else was bailing on them to leave them holding the bag.
But I saw the retail flag flying high on the 3rd market halt (IIRC), and I knew most would be ok. What did I see, you ask? Why, the glorious $211.00 / $5,000 bid/ask spread. WSB Reddit is down? Those crazy mofos give you the finger right on the ticker tape. I've been asked many times in the last few hours about why I was so sure shorts weren't covering on the down move. THIS is how I knew. For sure. It's in the market data itself.
I'll admit, I tried to one-up those bros with a 4206.90 limit sell order, but it never made it through. I'm impressed that the HFT guys at the hedge fund must have realized really quickly what a morale booster that kind of thing would have been, and kept a lower backstop ask in place almost continuously from then on I'm sure others tried the same thing. Occasionally $1,000 and other high-dollar asks would peak through from time to time from then on, which told me the long-side HFTs were probably successfully sniping the backstops regularly.
So, translating for those of you who found that confusing. First, such a high ask is basically a FU to the short-side (who, as you remember, need to eventually buy shares to cover their short positions). More importantly, as an indicator of retail sentiment, it meant that NO ONE ELSE WAS TRYING TO SELL AT ANY PRICE LOWER THAN $5,000. Absolutely no one was bailing out.
I laughed for a minute, then started getting a little worried. Holy cow.. NO retail selling into the fear? How are they resisting that kind of price move??
The answer, as we all know now... they weren't afraid... they weren't even worried. They were F*CKING PISSED.
Meanwhile the momentum guys and long-side HFTs keep gobbling up the generously donated shares that the short-side are plowing into their ladder attack. Lots of HFT duels going on as long-side HFTs try to intercept shares meant to travel between short-side HFT accounts for their ladder. You can tell when you see prices like $227.0001 constantly flying across the tape. Retail can't even attempt to enter an order like that--those are for the big boys with privileged low-latency access.
The fact that you can even see that on the tape with human eyes is really bad for the short-side people.
Why, you ask? Because it means liquidity is drying up, and fast.
The Liquidity Tide is Flowing Out Quickly. Who's Naked (short)?
Market technicals time. I still wish this sub would allow pictures so I could throw up a chart, but I guess a table will do fine.
DateVolumePrice at US Market CloseFriday, 1/22/21197,157,196$65.01Monday, 1/25/21177,874,00$76.79Tuesday, 1/26/21178,587,974$147.98Wednesday, 1/27/2193,396,666$347.51Thursday, 1/28/2158,815,805$193.60
What do I see? I see the shares available to trade dropping so fast that all the near-exchange compute power in the world won't let the short-side HFTs maintain order flow volume for their attacks. Many retail people asking me questions thought today was the heaviest trading. Nope--it was just the craziest.
What about the price dropping on Thursday? Is that a sign that the short-side pulled a miracle out and pushed price down against a parabolic move on even less volume than Wednesday? Is the long side running out of capital?
Nope. It means the short-side hedge funds are just about finished.
But wait, I thought the price needed to be higher for them to be taken out? How is it that price being lower is bad for them? Won't that allow them to cover at a lower price?
No, the volume is so low that they can't cover any meaningful fraction of their position without spiking the price parabolic almost instantly. Just not enough shares on offer at reasonable prices (especially when WSB keeps flashing you 6942.00s).
It's true, a higher price hurts, but the interest charge for one more day is just noise at this point. The only tick that will REALLY count is the last tick of trading on Friday.
In the meantime, the price drop (and watching the sparring in real time) tells me that the long-side whales and their HFT quants are so certain of the squeeze that they're no longer worried AT ALL about whether it will happen, and they aren't even worried at all about retail morale to help carry the water anymore.
Instead, they're now really, really worried about how CHEAPLY they can make it happen.
They are wondering if they can't edge out just a sliver more alpha out of what will already be a blow-out trade for the history books (probably). You see, to make it happen they just have to keep hoovering up shares. It doesn't matter what those shares cost. If you're certain that the squeeze is now locked in, why push the price up and pay more than you have to? Just keep pressing hard enough to force short-side to keep sending those tasty shares your way, but not so much you move the price. Short-side realizes this and doesn't try to drive price down too aggressively. They can't afford to let price run away, so they have to keep some pressure on at the lowest volume they can manage, but they don't want to push down too hard and give the long-side HFTs too deep of a discount and bleed their ammo out even faster. That dynamic keeps price within a narrow (for GME today, anyway) trading range for the rest of the day into the close.
Good plan guys, but those after market people are pushing the price up again. Damnit WSB bros and Euros, you're costing those poor long-side whales their extra 0.0000001% of alpha on this trade just so you can run up your green rockets... See, that's the kind of nonsense that just validates Lee Cooperman's concerns.
On a totally unrelated note, I have to say that I appreciate the shift in CNBC's reporting. Much more thoughtful and informed. Just please get a good market technician in there who will be willing to talk about what is going on under the hood if possible. A lot of people watching on the sidelines are far more terrified than they need to be because it all looks random to them. And they're worried that you guys look confused and worried--and if the experts on the news are worried....??!
You should be able to find one who has access to the really good data that we retailers can only guess at, who can explain it to us unwashed masses.
Ok, So.. Questions
There is no market justification for this. How can you tell me is this fundamentally sound and not just straight throwing money away irresponsibly?? (side note: not that that should matter--if you want to throw your money away why shouldn't you be allowed to?)
We're not trading in your securities pricing model. This isn't irrational just because your model says long and short positions are the same thing. The model is not a real market. There is asymmetrical counterparty risk here given the shorts are on the hook for all the money they have, and possibly all the money their brokers have, and possibly anyone with exposure to the broker too! You may want people to trade by the rules you want them to follow. But the rest of us trade in the real market as it is actually implemented. Remember? That's what you tell the retailers who take their accounts to zero. Remember what you told the KBIO short-squeezed people? They had fair warning that short positions carry infinite risk, including more than your initial investment. You guys know this. It's literally part of your job to know this.
But-but-the systemic risk!! This is Madness!
...Madness?
THIS. IS. THE MARKET!!! *Retail kicks the short-side hedge funds down an infinity loss black hole\*.
Ok, seriously though, that is actually a fundamentally sound, and properly profit-driven answer at least as justifiable as the hedge funds' justification for going >100% of float short. If they can be allowed to gamble INFINITE LOSSES because they expect to make profit on the possibility the company goes bankrupt, can't others do the inverse on the possibility the company I don't know.. doesn't go bankrupt and gets a better strategy from the team that created what is now a $43bn market cap company (CHWY) that does exactly some of the things GME needs to do (digital revenue growth) maybe? I mean, I first bought in on that fundamental value thesis in the 30s and then upped my cost basis given the asymmetry of risk in the technical analysis as an obvious no-brainer momentum trade. The squeeze is just, as WSB people might say, tendies raining down from on high as an added bonus.
I get that you disagree on the fundamental viability of GME. Great. Isn't that what makes a market?
Regarding the consequences of a squeeze, in practice my expectation was maybe at worst some kind of ex-market settlement after liquidation of the funds with exposure to keep things nice and orderly for the rest of the market. I mean, they handled the VW thing somehow right? I see now that I just underestimated elite hedge fund managers though--those guys are so hardcore (I'll explain why I think so a bit lower down).
If hedge fund people are so hardcore, how did the retail long side ever have a chance of winning this squeeze trade they're talking about?
Because it's an asymmetrical battle once you have short interest cornered. And the risk is also crazily asymmetrical in favor of the long side if short interest is what it is in GME. In fact, the hedge funds essentially cornered themselves without anyone even doing anything. They just dug themselves right in there. Kind of impressive really, in a weird way.
What does the short side need to cover? They need the price to be low, and they need to buy shares.
How does price move lower? You have to push share volume such that supply overwhelms demand and price therefore goes down (man, I knew econ 101 would come in handy someday).
But wait... if you have to sell shares to push the price down.. won't you just undo all your work when you have to buy it back to actually cover?
The trick is you have to push price down so hard, so fast, so unpredictably, that you SCARE OTHER PEOPLE into selling their shares too, because they're scared of taking losses. Their sales help push the price down for free! and then you scoop them up at discount price! Also, there are ways to make people scared other than price movement and fear of losses, when you get right down to it. So, you know, you just need to get really, really, really good at making people scared. Remember to add a line item to your budget to make sure you can really do it right.
On the other hand..
What does the long side need to do? They need to own as much of the shares as they can get their hands on. And then they need to hold on to them. They can't be weak hands either. They need to be hands that will hold even under the most intense heat of battle, and the immense pressure of mind-numbing fear... they need to be as if they were made of... diamond... (oh wow, maybe those WSB people kind of have a point here).
Why does this matter? Because at some point the sell side will eventually run out of shares to borrow. They simply won't be there, because they'll be safely tucked away in the long-side's accounts. Once you run out of shares to borrow and sell, you have no way to move the price anymore. You can't just drop a fat stack--excuse me, I mean suitcase (we're talking hedge fund money here after all)--of Benjamins on the ticker tape directly. Only shares. No more shares, no way to have any direct effect on the price whatsoever.
Ok, doesn't that just mean trading stops? Can't you just out-wait the long side then?
Well, you could.. until someone on the long side puts 1 share up on a 69420 ask, and an even crazier person actually buys at that price on the last tick on a Friday. Let's just say it gets really bad at that point.
Ok.. but how do the retail people actually get paid?
Well, to be quite honest, it's entirely up to each of them individually. You've seen the volumes being thrown around the past week+. I guarantee you every single retailer out there could have printed money multiple times trading that flow. If they choose to, and time it well. Or they could lose it all--this is the market. Some of them apparently seem to have some plan, or an implicit trust in certain individuals to help them know when to punch out. Maybe it works out, but maybe not. There will be financial casualties on the field for sure--this is the bare-knuckled capitalist jungle after all, remember? But everyone ponied up to the table with their own money somehow, so they all get to play in the big leagues just like everyone else. In theory, anyway.
And now, Probably the #1 question I've been asked on all of these posts has been: So what happens next? Do we get the infinity squeeze? Do the hedge funds go down?
Great questions. I don't know. No one does. That's what I've said every time, but I get that's a frustrating answer, so I'll write a bit more and speculate further. Please again understand these are my opinions with a degree of speculation I wouldn't normally put in a post.
The Market and the Economy. Main Street, Wall Street, and Washington
The pandemic has hurt so many people that it's hard to comprehend. Honestly, I don't even pretend to be able to. I have been crazy fortunate enough to almost not be affected at all. Honestly, it is a little unnerving to me how great the disconnect is between people who are doing fine (or better than fine, looking at my IRA) versus the people who are on the opposite side of the ever-widening divide that, let's be honest, has been growing wider since long before the pandemic.
People on the other side--who have been told they cannot work even if they want to, who wonder if congress will get it together to at least keep them from getting thrown out of their house if they have to keep taking one for the team for the good of all, are wondering if they're even living in the same reality.
Because all they see on the news each day is that the stock market is at record highs, or some amazing tech stocks have 10x'd in the last 6 months. How can that be happening during a pandemic? Because The Market is not The Economy. The Market looks forward to that brighter future that Economy types just need to wait for. Don't worry--it'll be here sometime before the end of the year. We think. We're making money on that assumption right now, anyway. Oh, by the way, if you're in The Market, you get to get richer as a minor, unearned side-effect of the solutions our governments have come up with to fight the pandemic.
Wow. That sounds amazing. How do I get to part of that world?
Retail fintech, baby. Physical assets like real estate might be a bit out of reach at the moment, but stocks will do. I can even buy fractional shares of BRK/A LOL.
Finally, I can trade for my own slice of heaven, watching that balance go up (and up--go stonks!!). Now I too get to dream the dream. I get to feel connected to that mythical world, The Market, rather than being stuck in the plain old Economy. Sure, I might blow up my account, but that's because it's the jungle. Bare-knuckled, big league capitalism going on right here, and at least I get to show up an put my shares on the table with everyone else. At least I'm playing the same game. Everyone has to start somewhere--at least now I get to start, even if I have to learn my lesson by zeroing my account a few times. I've basically had to deal with what felt like my life zeroing out a few times before. This is number on a screen going to 0 is nothing.
Laugh or cry, right? I'll post my losses on WSB and at least get some laughs.
Geez, some of the people here are making bank. I better learn from them and see if they'll let me in on their trades. Wow... this actually might work. I don't understand yet, but I trust these guys telling me to hold onto this crazy trade. I don't understand it, but all the memes say it's going to be big.
...WOW... I can pay off my credit card with this number. Do I punch out now? No? Hold?... Ok, getting nervous watching the number go down but I trust you freaks. We're still in the jungle, but at least I'm in with with my posse now. Market open tomorrow--we ride the rocket baby! And if it goes down, at least I'm going down with my crew. At least if that happens the memes will be so hilarious I'll forget to cry.
Wow.. I can't believe it... we might actually pull this off. Laugh at us now, "pros"!
We're in The Market now, and Market rules tell us what is going to happen. We're getting all that hedge fund money Right? Right?
Maybe.
First, I say maybe because nothing is ever guaranteed until it clears. Secondly, because the rules of The Market are not as perfectly enforced as we would like to assume. We are also finding out they may not be perfectly fair. The Market most experts are willing to talk about is really more like the ideal The Market is supposed to be. This is the version of the market I make my trading decisions in. However, the Real Market gets strange and unpredictable at the edges, when things are taken to extremes, or rules are pushed beyond the breaking point, or some of the mechanics deep in the guts of the Real Market get stretched. GME ticks basically all of those boxes, which is why so many people are getting nervous (aside from the crazy money they might lose). It's also important to remember that the sheer amount of money flowing through the market has distorting power unto itself. Because it's money, and people really, really, really like their money--especially when they're used to having a lot of it, and rules involving that kind of money tend to look more... flexible, shall we say.
Ok, back to GME. If this situation with GME is allowed to play out to its conclusion in The Market, we'll see what happens. I think all the long-side people get the chance to be paid (what, I'm not sure--and remember, you have to actually sell your position at some point or it's all still just numbers on your screen), but no one knows for certain.
But this might legitimately get so big that it spills out of The Market and back into The Economy.
Geez, and here I thought the point of all of this was so that we all get to make so much money we wouldn't ever have to think and worry about that thing again.
Unfortunately, while he's kind of a buzzkill, Thomas Petterfy has a point. This could be a serious problem.
It might blow out The Market, which will definitely crap on The Economy, which as we all know from hard experience, will seriously crush Main Street.
If it's that big a deal, we may even need Washington to be involved. Once that happens, who knows what to expect.. this kind of scenario being possible is why I've been saying I have no idea how this ends, and no one else does either.
How did we end up in this ridiculous situation? From GAMESTOP?? And it's not Retail's fault the situation is what it is.. why is everyone telling US that we need to back down to save The Market?? What about the short-side hedge funds that slammed that risk into the system to begin with?? We're just playing by the rules of The Market!!
Well, here are my thoughts, opinions, and some even further speculation... This may be total fantasy land stuff here, but since I keep getting asked I'll share anyway. Just keep that disclaimer in mind.
A Study in Big Finance Power Moves: If you owe the bank $10,000, it's your problem...
What happens when you owe money you have no way to pay back? It's a scary question to have to face personally. Still, on balance and on average, if you're fortunate enough to have access to credit the borrowing is a risk that is worth taking (especially if you're reasonably careful). Lenders can take a risk loaning you money, you take a risk by borrowing in order to do something now that you would otherwise have had to wait a long time or maybe would never have realistically been able to do otherwise. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Sometimes it's due to reasons totally beyond your control. In any case, if you find yourself there you have no choice but to dust yourself off, pick yourself up as best as you can, and try to move on and rebuild. A lot of people had to learn that in 2008. Man that year really sucked.
Wall street learned their lessons too. Most learned what I think most of us would consider the right lessons--lessons about risk management, and the need to guard vigilantly against systemic risk, concentration of risk through excess concentration of leverage on common assets, etc. Many suspect that at least a few others may have learned an entirely different set of, shall we say, unhealthy lessons. Also, to try to be completely fair, maybe managing other peoples' money on 10x+ leverage comes with a kind of pressure that just clouds your judgement. I could actually, genuinely buy that. I know I make mistakes under pressure even when I'm trading risk capital I could totally lose with no real consequence. Whatever the motive, here's my read on what's happening:
First, remember that as much fun as WSB are making of the short-side hedge fund guys right now, those guys are smart. Scary smart. Keep that in mind.
Next, let's put ourselves in their shoes.
If you're a high-alpha hedge fund manager slinging trades on a $20bn 10x leveraged to 200bn portfolio, get caught in a bad situation, and are down mark-to-market several hundred million.. what do you do? Do you take your losses and try again next time? Hell no.
You're elite. You don't realize losses--you double down--you can still save this trade no sweat.
But what if that doesn't work out so well and you're in the hole >$2bn? Obvious double down. Need you ask? I'm net up on the rest of my positions (of course), and the momentum when this thing makes its mean reversion move will be so hot you can almost taste the alpha from here. Speaking of momentum, imagine the move if your friends on TV start hyping the story harder! Genius!
Ok, so that still didn't work... this is now a frigging 7 sigma departure from your modeled risk, and you're now locked into a situation that is about as close to mathematically impossible to escape as you can get in the real world, and quickly converging on infinite downside. Holy crap. The fund might be liquidated by your prime broker by tomorrow morning--and man, even the broker is freaking out. F'in Elon Musk and his twitter! You're cancelling your advance booking on his rocket ship to Mars first thing tomorrow... Ok, focus--this might legit impact your total annual return. You need a plan, and you know the smartest people on the planet, right? The masters of the universe! Awesome--they've even seen this kind of thing before and still have the playbook!! Of course! It's obvious now--you borrow a few more billion and double down again first thing in the morning. So simple. Sticky note that Mars trip cancellation so you don't forget.
Ok... so that didn't work? You even cashed in some pretty heavy chits too. Ah well, that was a long shot anyway. So where were you? Oh yeah.. if shenanigans don't work, skip to page 10...
...Which says, of course, to double down again. Anyone even keeping track anymore? Oh, S3 says it's $40bn and we're going parabolic? Man, that chart gives me goosebumps. All according to plan...
So what happens tomorrow? One possible outcome of PURE FANTASTIC SPECULATION...
End of the week--phew. Never though it'd come. Where are you at now?... Over $9000*!!! Wow. You did it boys, and as a bonus the memes will be so sweet.
*side note: add 8 zeros to the end...
Awesome--your problems have been solved. Because...
..
BOOM
Now it's EVERYONE's problem. Come at me, Chamath, THIS is REAL baller shit.
Now all you gotta do is make all the hysterical retirees watching their IRAs hanging in the balance blame those WSB kids. Hahaha. Boomers, amirite? hate when those kids step on their law--I mean IRAs. GG guys, keep you memes. THAT is how it's done.
Ok, but seriously, I hope that's not how it ends. I guess we just take it day by day at this point.
Apologies for the length. Good luck in the market!
Also, apologies in advance for formatting, spelling, and grammatical errors. I was typing this thing in between doing all kinds of other things for most of the day.

Most of you are probably far to young to even know what "Love Boat" is, but the theme just fit SO well, I opted to go with that rather than the much more popular Haddaway's "What Is Love?" (though you'll see a little shout out to that later too 😉).
Anyway, sit back and let me assault your (mental) ears for a moment....
Love, exciting and new
Come aboard! Hanke's expecting you!
Love, and GBL's sweet rewards.
Let dust flow, it comes back to you!
The Love Cup, soon you'll be making another run,
The Love Cup promises something for everyone!
The "Nifty Or Thrifty" article series takes a comprehensive look at the meta for PvP Cup formats: Love Cup, in this case. As is typical for the NoT series, I'll cover not only the top meta picks, but also some mons where you can save some dust with cheaper second move unlock costs. Because for those on a stardust budget--and/or folks trying to save up some dust for the future--it can be daunting trying to figure out where to spend or not spend it. We all want to field competitive teams, but where can we get the best bang for our buck and where should we perhaps channel our inner scrooge?
Love Cup is an unusual format... there are only 105 Pokémon eligible in total, and of those, only about 60 (and honestly, far less than that) have any PvP relevance at all. Heck, most Cup formats have 150-200 eligible Pokémon, easily... even Kanto Cup has more than 105! So while there IS some diversity and variety to be had, there is also a higher than normal chance of the same Pokémon showing up over... and over... and over....
In fact, there is one core group that Love Cup discussions I've seen are honing in on, and I want to highlight the Pokémon that make up that core--and why they're discussed so often together--before I dive into anything else. Similarly to how Flying Cup was all about Aerodactyl, Skarmory, and Zapdos and then what could beat them, so will be my breakdown in this article.
So let's get to it!

BABY DON'T HURT ME...NO MORE

These Pokémon are at the very top of this meta. Their importance cannot be understated, to the degree that I feel compelled to cover them before I get into the standard run from 10,000 to 100,000 dust 'mons. You may not plan to use them, but you better have a plan to fend them off. Because otherwise... baby, they WILL hurt you. LOTS more.
THE CHARMERS
WIGGLYTUFF
Charm | Ice Beam & Play Rough
CLEFABLE
Charm | Meteor Mash & Psychic
Amazingly, even though you automatically think of "pink" when pondering Charmers, Wigglytuff and Clefable are the only two Charmers (and only fully evolved Fairies) that are actually eligible. And while they may look cute and friendly on the outside, deep down they are stone cold killers.
With well over a 60% win rate against the entirety of Love Cup AND the core meta, WIGGLYTUFF appears to remain the better Charmer once again. That Normal subtyping DOES make it a little bit squishier against Fighting damage, but it still easily dispatches of the Fighters that actually sneak into the format. And while there is barely any Ghost damage around, the fact that Wiggly double resists Ghost DOES allow it to beat both Lickis with their Lick fast move, whereas Clefable (with no resistance to Ghost) typically loses. (With caveat... see below.)
CLEFABLE does replicate nearly all of Wiggly's performance, albeit sometimes with a bit less left in the tank and sometimes needing to play matchups a certain way to get the win. To make the comparison between the two as simple as possible, I did some extensive side by side analysis on Wiggly vs Clefable in 1v1 shielding, and here are my findings:

• Wigglytuff alone is able to defeat XL Lickitung and Camerupt... Clefable has no realistic path to victory, at least assuming it does not come in with a shield or energy lead. Wiggly is also able to beat non-XL Lickitung, Lickilicky, and Milotic consistently, whereas Clefable wins against those are reliant on sticking to JUST Charm and are also a bit IV dependant.
  
• Clefable is uniquely capable of Charming down Porygon2 and Shadow Magmortar, again as long as it sticks with JUST Charm and does not try to throw any charge moves. Wigglytuff cannot win these battles without some type of advantage coming in.
  
• As you have probably gathered, a Clefable player sometimes has to rely on commiting to the Charm farm down (and sometimes a little luck!) to win certain battles. These include the Lickiboys, Milotic, Porygon2, and S-Magmortar, as noted already, plus Solrock, Ledian, and Corsola. Wigglytuff wins all of those besides P2 and S-Mortar whether it throws a charge move or not, so it is technically better at pressuring shields despite Clefable having the cheapest charge move of the pair (Meteor Mash, at 50 energy).
  
• Clefable DOES do better versus the Fighters (Medicham, Scrafty, Blaziken) due to fully resisting Fighting damage, but Wigglytuff still beats them all very, very comfortably.
  

Now all that said, it may be mostly academic as I believe a number of players are planning to run BOTH Charmers in the same line of three, alongside protection against Fires and Steels and Poisons that plague Wiggly and Clefable. Protection like the next thing on our list....
ALOLMOMOLA
Waterfall | Psychic & Hydro Pump/Blizzard
Alomomola is a nearly perfect pairing with the Charmers for one big reason: it makes a fantastic bodyguard, washing away the Fires and Steels that threaten the Fairies, beating the Charmers themselves on opposing teams, as well as fighting the Poisonous Bugs at least to a standstill (and usually emerging victorious there too, at least with a decent Attack IV). If a Charmer cannot beat it, then with very few exceptions, Alomonola probably can, or at the very least leave it nearly dead and well within Charm range.
I mean, if you really wanted to, you could stop with those three and likely call it a day. That trio essentially is the "B.B.M.L." of Love Cup. Running them all three together--or heck, just ONE of the Charmers plus Aloe--nets the highest possible score against the Love Cup meta in terms of Safely, Consistency, and most importantly, Coverage. The ONLY score that clocks in below an A is "Bulk", and honestly, I think even that is a B+ at worst. (I mean, what is it looking for there... Chansey? 🤣 You don't get much bulkier than that trio.)
But good as they are, those three are of course not the ONLY options... not by a longshot. There are plenty of other solid Pokémon to cover, and I'll be keying in on those that can beat down these Queens of Love Cup. And so, let's get into a more standard Nifty Or Thrifty review of the rest, starting with the cheapest and working out way on up from there.

10,000 Dust/25 Candy

SCOLIPEDE
Poison Jab | X-Scissor & Megahorn/Sludge Bomb
This might seem an odd place to start in with the 10,000k 'mons, but there's a method to my madness. Because Scolipede is one of only two Pokémon in the format with Poison Jab, and that move alone--combined with Scolipede's natural resistance to Charm thanks to being a Poison type--is able to completely farm down the Charmers. What's more, Scolipede is capable of finishing off Alomomola (depending on IVs, as linked to up above) as well as Vileplume. In fact, Scolipede and Vileplume are two of only FOUR Pokémon in the entire format capable of taking out both Charmers and Alomonola. I could probably rest my case there, but there's more, as Scolipede can also beat Medicham and Scrafty (neither appreciate Bug damage), Cherrim, Milotic, and even Lickitung... and that's of the XL variety too. Note that Scolipede wants both Bug charge moves more than Sludge Bomb; Bomb is better for one shotting Fairies, but Megahorn is necessary to beat Medicham and Lickitung, and those are kiiiiiiiiiiind of a big deal, so Horn gets the nod from me. Venipede is out there spawning in boosted numbers right now, so what are you waiting for?! Go get a good one while you still can.
ARIADOS
Poison Sting | Cross Poison & Megahorn
Scolipede lite. I don't know that I heartily recommend Ariados, but it CAN beat everything Scolipede can... well, except for Medicham, Lickitung, and Milotic. Ariados does beat out Electrode, which it can brag about to Scol that does not, but that's not exactly fair compensation. If you like Ariados and have always wanted to run it, this DOES look like your best shot by far... after all, it IS in elite company with Scolipede, Vileplume, and one other (secret, for now) Pokémon as the only 'mons that can slay Wigglytuff, Clefable, and Alomomola. But it's quite bait dependant and... yeah. Like I said, not strongly recommended, but you can do a lot worse.
CHARIZARD
Fire Spin/Dragon Breathᴸ/Wing Attackᴸ | Dragon Claw & Blast Burnᴸ/Overheat
With all the many moves Charizard has these days, AND being able to be a Shadow as well, I could fill half an article just going through them all. But I will try to keep this light and not get bogged down. So to sum it all up, let's assume you have Dragon Claw and Blast Burn as a starting point. With that in mind:

• Fire Spin typically beats Grasses (Vileplume, Cherrim), Fairies (Wiggly, Clefable), Lickitung, and Wing Attack Zard. Shadow FS is a hair worse, gaining Electrode but now losing to WA Zard and XL Lickitung.
  
• Wing Attack has been generating some buzz for the fact that it adds Slowbro to the win column, but it cannot beat XL Licki and loses to Fire Spin and Dragon Breath Zard. Shadow WA now DOES beat Fire Spin Zard, but loses that special win over Slowbro.
  
• Dragon Breath has been less discussed than the other fast moves, as people understandably assume it is less viable than other moves due to the prominent presence of the Dragon-resistant Charmers. However, DB Zard DOES still beat the Charmers, with the same HP left over that FS Zard does... it just has to land the Blast Burn, obviously, but that is also the case with Fire Spin and Wing Attack: no BB, no win. Dragon Breath Zard also beats FS and WA Zard, Slowbro like WA is able to do, and Licktung like FS is able to do. The one blemish is that DB does NOT defeat Medicham, not even the non-XL version. However, Shadow DB Zard can beat Medi, but is overall worse, losing to XL Licki and WA Zard. No bueno.
  

Also no bueno: we are now into the portion of the article where we're discussing things that can handle the Charmers OR Alomomola, but not both. Zard and most Fires handle the Charmers (and other things, like Vileplume and Bugs and Steels that harass the Charmers) just fine, but have not a prayer against Alomomola's Waterfalls.
TALONFLAME
Fire Spin | Brave Bird & Flame Charge
Arguably a better Charizard in this particular meta, and will require far less second-guessing on which moves to run with! While Talon cannot overcome Medicham as Zard (usually) can, it CAN beat Scrafty and Seaking, neither of which Zard can replicate, and beats down Slowbro and XL Lickitung far more effectively and consistently than Charizard can (25+ more HP remaining on average), and ALSO beats Fire Spin Zard in the head to head. Charizard has more quirks and is a bit more unpredicatable, but if you just want consistency (and have Medicham coverage elsewhere), you may like the feel of Talonflame a lot more in Love Cup. (And do note that Talonflame CAN overcome non-XL Medi, so there's that too.)
BLAZIKEN
Counter | Blaze Kick & Blast Burnᴸ/Brave Bird/Stone Edgeᴸ
The first of very few Fighters on our list, which is a pro and con. The good: easy wins against things like Lickitung and Crustle and Magcargo that are weak to Counter, AND things like Vileplume and Cherrim that are weak to Fire damage. (Blaze Kick is usually enough for those.) The bad: Charmers are a write-off, AND Alomomola (and most other Waters too) in this case. If you DO decide to run Blaze, I recommend Blast Burn most, as that at least is fast enough and powerful enough to beat Seaking. Blaze does good things, but even I will admit that losing to all of the "big three" is pretty discouraging. Just being honest here!
MAGCARGO
EmbeRock Throw | Stone Edge & Overheat
Magcargo is meta? Could it be true? Anyone that has followed my articles for a while (especially those focused on The Silph Arena) probably knows that I am a YUGE fan of Mr. (or Mrs.!) Cargo. It is truly unique with its typing and moves. The issue is that, while it has a lot of resistances (Fairy, Bug, Normal, Flying, Ice, Poison, and 2x to Fire), it has some very exploitable weaknesses as well (Fighting, Rock, and double weaknesses to Water and Ground). It's also a Fire that takes neutral damage from Grass and Steel, which become problematic whenever there are several of those around. Quite frankly, usually there are other Fire types that are just plain better. But in Love Cup, Mags is right up there with them. It beats the Charmers and the Grasses just as you'd want your Fire type to do, as well as Bugs Scolipede, Trashadam, Sczior and such. But it ALSO beats Charizard (as long as it doesn't have Dragon Breath) and Talonflame and most other Fires, manages to claw past Lickitung, and incredibly, even takes out Slowbro! You do have the option of running Rock Throw instead of Ember (as in the sims above), but while you do beat Crustle that way and become a VERY hard anti-Fire counter, you now lose the Grasses and Lickitung and Slowbro and... it's just too much. Just stick with Ember, and for once, roll Magcargo out there with confidence! 💪🐌
CRUSTLE
Fury Cutter | X-Scissor & Rock Slide
Speaking of odd Rock types, little Crustie is a nice option overall too, though I'll point out right up front that it doesn't beat the Charmers or Alomomayomama. What it does do it clean up most of the riffraff, from Charizard to Slowbro to Electrode to the Grasses to Seaking to Trashadam to Scolipede to any Lickitung that isn't driven all the way up to the very upper 40s. It's disappointing not being able to take out the very biggest names, but many can't and have to settle for that riffraff, and Crustle does it as well as (and much cheaper than!) most.
WORMADAM (TRASH)
Confusion | Bug Buzz & Iron Head
Convenient that the only Wormadam allowed in this format is the best by far. "Trashadam" is a very curious little guy. There are many Steely Bugs in PvP now, but Trashy still remains truly unique with Confusion powering out more standard Steel and Bug moves. Between these moves and its typing, Trashadam is a particularly good Fairy counter that also beats Vileplume (and HARD, too), Slowbro, Electrode, Scizor, and even Blaziken, and puts up an intense battle against Lickitung and Alomomola too. With excellent PvP IVs it adds Crustle and even PuP Medicham to its list of wins too! (If Cham is running Ice Punch/Psychic, as I recommend below, then Trashy already wins that anyway.) It doesn't win EVERYTHING you might want it to, but that's one heck of a résumé. I strongly recommend looking into building one if you can... though note that, despite the second move costing only 10k dust, Trashy has to be at (or nearly at) Level 40 to work, so it's still not exactly "thrifty".
DELPHOX
Fire Spin | Flame Charge & Psychic
No, it's not an impressive win total, but note WHAT Phoxy beats: both Charmers, Medicham, Vileplume, and Cherrim (and unlisted Trashadam and Scizor). Yes, Aloyomama will steal its lunch money and stuff it in a locker, but if you need a quick, cheap build to deal with Charmers and/or Medi and/or Grasses, Fenneken is still spawning quite frequently right now, so Delphox may be a good emergency fill in for you.
CHERRIM (SUNNY)
Bullet Seed | Weather Ball (Fire) & Solar Beam
Now this is an impressive win total, and includes a rare Alomomola sighting in the win column, and VERY solidly so. Now I know what you're thinking looking at that: "but JRE, it only wins because it baited a shield with Fire Weather Ball!" Well yes, but also no: Cherrim has ample time to forgo baiting and just go double Solar Beam and still escape comfortably. Solar Beam may normally seem to take longer to charge than quarantine has been dragging on, but with Bullet Seed driving it, Cherrim has one ready to go after only 7 Seeds and about 10 seconds, which is faster than Aloe can charge up its first charge move. And thus, Cherrim easily dispatches Alomomola and Milotic and Slowbro, as well as melting down Vileplume, Steely Bugs, Electrode and Lickitung with Fire Balls. As a 3+ season lead for my own Great League GBL team, I can tell you from experience that Cherrim puts a LOT more pressure on the Charmers than the sims show, too. If Aloe is a particular issue for your team and you can't (or just don't want to) build, say, a Vileplume, Cherrim has some really good play in this meta.
Oh, you COULD run it with Razor Leaf instead if you want a really hard Water counter, picking up Seaking along the way, but you now lose to Scizor, Vileplume and others with the drastic decrease in the number of Fire Balls you can spew out there. Not worth it, IMO. If you want a Razor Leafer, just scroll down about four lines....

50,000 Dust/50 Candy

VILEPLUME
Razor Leaf | Sludge Bomb & Moonblast
The only Razor Leafer you actually WANT to run with Razor Leaf in Love Cup, and unlike Cherrim, Vileplume comes with some very handy resistances thanks to a Poison sub-typing, enabling it to be the third (of four) Pokémon on the list of things that can beat both Charmers and Alomomola. And it can do that comfortably without ever having to throw a charge move! In fact, if you compare Plume using charge moves to Plume sticking to just Razor Leaf, you'll notice a jump in performance in the RL-only results. Why? Because as is often the case for other Razor Leafers (and Charmers to, in point of fact), the best way to play them is usually to kill something off with just fast moves and save up energy to throw a charge move (or maybe multiple charge moves) at the next thing to follow before dying. As odd as it may seem, sometimes throwing a charge move (that is blocked) can actually lead to a loss where just straight fast move spamming would mean a win. Take Crustle, for just one example: throwing a charge move means a tie, whereas just saving that energy and sticking with Razor Leaf means a win instead (albeit by a razor thin margin). Anyway, not to get TOO down in the weeds, in addition to the Waters and Charmers, Plume can also slice through Electrode and Scrafty. Shadow Plume is a small step backwards, with the drop in bulk leading to losses to Scrafty and Crustle no matter what strategy you utilize. Plume is dangerous in this format, and stands truly alone as your one real Razor Leaf option.
SEAKING
Poison Jabᴸ | Icy Windᴸ & Drill Runᴸ
So I keep teasing a fourth Pokémon that can take out the Charmers and Al Yomama. Well here it is. Thanks to Poison Jab, Seaking wears down the Charmers, softens them up with Icy Wind, and then finishes them off with a Drill Run to the face. (Or you can go for the throat and just double Drill Run instead... either way works.) In addition to Cherrim, I have ALSO run my own triple Legacy Seaking out there a LOT in GBL, and so it's not surprising to see that the best way to beat Alomomola is to hit it first with an Icy Wind (reducing all subsequent damage dealt by Aloe) and THEN start launching Drill Runs, just as I've done for a couple GBL seasons to Azumarill (though Azu, being a Fairy, is even more farmable thanks to Jab). Anyway, with those three handled, note that Seaking has some overlap with Vileplume, beating Slowbro and Milotic in addition to the big three, but then branches off from there to handle Fires (Charizard, Magcargo, Blaziken, etc.) and, ironically, Cherrim, who cannot quite reach two charge moves (the second being Solar Beam) before Seaking launches its own second Icy Wind to close it out. Vileplume has certainly been discussed in forums I have seen in excited tones, but not so much Seaking, which is a serious oversight. Yes, it requires a couple Elite TMs to build, but I promise you that it is a BLAST to play, and there's never been a better time to get started.
PARASECT
Fury Cutter | X-Scissor & Solar Beam
Parasect is yet another 'mon with a promising and unique typing (Bug/Grass) and decent moves that has never seemed to put it all together. But maybe, juuuuuuuuuust maybe, its moment has finally come? As a Bug--and one that double resists Grass, at that--it handles Vileplume and Cherrim, and that Bug damage also tears up half-Dark Scrafty and half-Psychic Slowbro. But as a Grass, it also resists Water damage and can hit at Waters with big fat Solar Beam, enabling it to also take out Milotic and Big Momma Olga. (The nicknames for Alomomola are just coming easier and easier the more I write. 😂) And before you point out that, yes, the sim results up there bait with X-Scissor before landing the killing Beam, keep this in mind: it can beat Milly AND Aloyomama (and Vileplume, for good measure) with JUST Solar Beam, no baiting required. Boom! Oh, and it also takes out (with X-Scissor) Electrode and Lickitung for good measure, just to further sweeten the deal. I love how this Cup brings some neglected but cool Pokémon into the PvP limelight, and Parasect could be a great representation of that.
SLOWBRO (and friends)
Confusion | Ice Beam & Psychic
A popular discussion topic, simply because it beats Alomomola and Medicham. It doesn't do a whole lot beyond that--just a couple Fires, Milotic, and Scolipede are about it--but this meta is such that taking out those two big targets is enough to be considered "core meta".
Of note: SLOWKING and even SLOWPOKE do the same basic things, with King also beating Bro head to head and Poke beating Fire Spin AND Wing Attack Zard (whereas WA can overcome the other Slows). EX Slowpoke looks VERY interesting with added wins against Slowbro, Crustle, and the Charmers too, if you're feeling frisky and somehow rolling in XL Slow candy.
And there are actually several other 'mons that fill a similar role. CRAWDAUNT (with Snarl) actually beats the same things as the Slows, though substituting (Smack Down) Crustle in place of Medicham... being half-Dark, Daunt has no chance against Medi's Fighting damage and loses especially hard to the Charmers. Exeggutor is not the right color for Love Cup, but EXEGGCUTE is. Like Slowpoke, it has to be maxed, but it has similar potential, handling the Aloe and Milly, Medicham (most of the time, at least... Ice Punch can be a problem though), and then Electrode, Vileplume, and Cherrim, mostly on the strength of resisting most of their moves thanks to being part Grass. And pushed up to XL levels (if you're crazy enough to try!), it can even beat Clefable, which is quite a nice pickup. Similar in some ways but quite different in others, SOLROCK gives up the Waters but hates harder on Fires, manages to beat Medicham, Scolipede, and Seaking, and somehow can also outlast Clefable in the right spot (but as with Exeggcute, Wigglytuff remains evasive). And there are still others like GOREBYSS, but they're even worse and not much more than curiosities.
ELECTRODE
Volt Switch | Foul Play & Thunderbolt
On the surface, Electrode has a set of wins that looks shockingly close to the Slows, despite being drastically different Pokémon. As with Crawdaunt, it replaces Medicham with a Crustle win (the better Fury Cutter variety this time), but otherwise the same names are all there: Charizard, Magcargo, Milotic, Alomomola, Ice Punch Medicham, and hey, also the head to head with Slowbro. But unlisted there are also wins against Scolipede and Scizor and even Trashadam that the Slows and Daunt and the others above can't beat. Electrode, by my estimation, does their job, but better, and I'm surprising even myself by saying that I'd recommend it over any of them. The one hangup is that it has no answer to the Grasses, but that seems an acceptable price for all the good it can do. I will admit: I underestimated Electrode in Great League in GBL the first couple times I faced it, and I learned not to be so dismissive after those first couple encounters. It's not the greatest Electric out there or anything, but it certainly does its job well enough, and there is practically no Electric competition in this meta. The closest is bargain basement Lanturn wannabe ROTOM (Wash), and it's just... not as good. Again, never thought I'd say it, but just stick with Electrode and you'll be fine.
KINGLER
Mud Shotᴸ | X-Scissor & Crabhammer
I almost listed this among the smattering of stuff the followed the Slows, but Kingler is a bit different. It doesn't really beat the other Waters, for one thing, aside from Slowbro. But it does still beat down the Fires, and also the Bugs... Crustle, Scolipede, Trashadam, Scizor, all of 'em. And as a bonus, throw in Electrode and Cherrim as well, things that Waters really shouldn't be beating, but here we are. Kingler doesn't get many of the big ticket names in the meta, but it does do enough zany things that you're likely to see somebody flexing their Legacy one during the week. Knowledge is power... be prepared.
PORYGON2
Lock-On | Tri-Attack & Zap Cannon
Alright, Porygon fans. This is your first (and likely) last chance to use one of them and have it be actually borderline relevant. Yes, it requires baiting and landing the Zap Cannon killing blow, but P2 can take out the big Waters (including Mama Olga... I'm not even TRYING to get that name right anymore 😅), and Crustle, and Lickitung, and Magcargo, and can force a tie with Wigglytuff. This is still, in my opinion, more gimmick than serious play, but if you were to ever try, THIS is probably the time.
LICKITUNG
Lick | Body Slamᴸ & Power Whip
Okay, look, I'm not here to debate the merits of the XL candy system or how likely/fair it is that some players will have grinded enough XL candy by now to push Lickitung to new heights. I'm just here to report the facts, and the fact is, XL Lickitung is very good. But even regular old Level 40 Licki is good too, still beating Waters (Aloe Vera included) thanks to Power Whip, plus Electrode, Vileplume, and even Clefable just by sheer bulk and a lot of Body Slams. The only things XL Lickitung brings in are anti-meta type stuff like Scolipede, Trashadam, and FC Crustle. Not that those wins aren't good to have, but my point is this: you can run a non-XL Licki and still fulfill its primary roles without missing a beat. Do pay attention to any above 1411 CP (as that represents a maxed, perfect IV Level 40 one) so you'll know whether it's an XL one you're facing and respond accordingly. Good luck!
For those wondering, yes, LICKILICKY is a viable enough (and much cheaper) replacement, but without Power Whip, it struggles versus Waters (losing to Alomomola, which is a particularly painful step backwards) and is just a bit worse/less bulky overall. Honestly, if you can't build a good Lickitung, I might look elsewhere to fill that slot on my team than to Lickilicky... but that's me! It's YOUR team, so do what makes you happy.
DARMANITAN
Incinerate | Rock Slide & Overheat
SIMISEAR
Fire Spin | Crunch & Flamethrower
Just a couple of alternative Fire types you may or may not have laying around already. Both effectively handle the Bugs (aside from Crustle) and the Grasses, and manage to overcome Wigglytuff and Clefable. SIMISEAR beats WA Charizard and Slowbro thanks in large part to Crunch, while DARMANITAN instead XL Lickitung, Ember Magcargo, and (barely) XL Medicham and is probably a better choice overall. But they're both generally behind other Fire types already discussed above.
MEDICHAM
Counter | Psychic & Ice Punch/Power-Up Punch
So a lot of nuances here, but I'll try and keep it simple. You want Counter and Psychic (the move) for sure, but beyond that it gets a little sticky. My recommendation is Ice Punch, as it's needed to get wins against Cherrim and Vileplume, whereas Power-Up Punch instead narrowly wins the mirror match... see why I lean Ice Punch? That all said, PuP MAY be better with XL Medicham, as it still manages to beat Vileplume without Ice Punch, still wins the mirror, and adds on Trashadam as well. Ice Punch is still needed to overcome Cherrim, however. You may not have to worry about XL Medi too much, though... the only notable wins you get at Level 50 that Medicham cannot achieve at Level 40 are Vileplume (for PuP) and Milotic (for Ice Punch). Aloe, Mags, Crustie, Licki, Electrode, Scrafty, Scizor, etc.... they all go down with regular or XL Medi. Might not have to break the bank to play Medicham in this format.
SCRAFTY
Counter | Power-Up Punch & Foul Play
Here things are quite a bit easier: the moveset is pretty well set (don't run Acid Spray, please), no real XL concerns. The one potential concern is that sims don't always handle Power-Up Punch well, as it usually ALWAYS burns a shield on it, so while Scrafty looks godly in the overall win/loss column, losing really to only Charmers and Medicham. (Though if you expand a little beyond the "core meta", there are a few Bugs and Fires that give it issues.) But it's hard to tell how much that can be fully trusted, as you're not ALWAYS going to get the bait. I think there is certainly enough there to give Scrafty a hearty thumbs up--it may be even a bit better than Medicham--but live testing will probably be required to find out HOW good it can be.

75,000 Dust/75 Candy

I'm going to run through these quickly and highlight just a handful that really stand out, and then throw a few more "spicy" ones all at the end. You can construct a team pretty cheaply in this Cup, so something this expensive has got to be REALLY good to get an in depth look. Something like....
ALOMOMOLA
Waterfall | Psychic & Hydro Pump/Blizzard
Yep, what else would I lead this section with? I think I've talked about Alomomyolo enough already, but let's just take a look at what all it can actually do. Beats the Fires, beats the Charmers, beats its closest competitor Milotic, beats Crustle (and Scizor... and Trashy). But Aloe is not without flaws... it does still generally lose to the Fighters, Waters with non-Water moves (read as: Seaking and Slowbro), Lickitung, Electrode, and of course the Grasses. Alomomola is not dominant by any means, but as discussed way back at the beginning, it fills in the gaps left by the Charmers almost perfectly. Alo/Charm is surely going to be THE core to beat.
MILOTIC
Waterfall | Surf & Blizzard/Hyper Beam
Alomomola, but not as good. Still beats the Fires and Crustle/Trashy/Scizor and Clefable, which is good, but cannot reliably overcome Wigglytuff and cannot hang with Momolala, which is very, very bad. If you just don't HAVE an Alomomola to run, this might be the best place to turn, but it's going to struggle to maintain exactly the same role.
MAGMAR & MAGMORTAR
Karate Chop | Fire Punch & Return (Magmar)/Thunderboltᴸ (Magmortar)
Yet again, more Fire options. Do note they both seem to actually run a little better with Karate Chop than their Fire fast moves... it's necessary to beat Magcargo, Magmar needs it to Lickitung, and Magmortar needs it to beat Fire Spin Zard and Seaking. (Conversely, Magmar with Ember instead defeats Electrode and Scolipede, and Magmortar with Fire Spin only brings in Scolipede.) And those are really the big differences between them: the potential wins against Lickitung and Electrode are unique to Magmar, and the potential wins versus Charizand and Seaking (both thanks to Thunderbolt) are unique to Magmortar. They both handle the Grasses just fine, the Bugs (aside from Crustle), and of course the Charmers. (It gets a little tighter with Karate Chop rather than Fire fast moves, but not much.)
SCIZOR
Bullet Punch | Iron Head & X-ScissoNight Slash
For when you absolutely need Charmers dead, call in the exterminator. There isn't much that can outslug the Charmers in a battle of JUST fast moves, but Scizor can. That alone gives it value, but then it also goes out and beats several other relevant things like Vileplume, Slowbro, Crustle, Scolipede, Lickitung, and Seaking. It's not cheap, but Scizor is an above average Fairy killer that plays as a pretty good generalist too.
Others that look interesting (but not QUITE interesting enough) include HEATMOR, FLAAFFY, and BISHARP, but there are other things listed above that generally handle their roles better.
And that's it! Thanks for sticking with me to the end! Hopefully this helps you balance the cost of where to save yourself some hard-earned dust (and candy!) and still have a good time in Love Cup.
Until next time, you can always find me on Twitter for near-daily PvP analysis nuggets, or Patreon. And please, feel free to comment here with your own thoughts or questions and I'll try to get back to you!
Thank you for reading! I sincerely hope this helps you master Love Cup, and in the most affordable (and enjoyable) way possible. Best of luck, stay safe, and catch you next time!