Casinos And Gambling Market to grow by $ 82.09 billion

europe gambling market size

europe gambling market size - win

Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
submitted by jeromeBDpowell to SPACs [link] [comments]

Final DD piece for ROTH soon to be on Seeking Alpha

Final DD piece for ROTH soon to be on Seeking Alpha
PureCycle: The Overlooked Green Play
Summary
  • Polypropylene (“PP”) plastic has a $98 billion global market spread across a wide range of industries and products of which <1% of that market is derived from recycled material.
  • PureCycle is a technology leader in recycling PP, it possesses a patented and proven purification process that produces nearly virgin-quality resin from plastics.
  • Strong pushes from both consumers and regulatory bodies to move towards the use of recycled plastic make for a great opportunity in an untapped market.
  • Despite strong market demand, PureCycle is the only player in the game with both the technology and cost competitiveness to supply recycled PP. As a result, it has already been approached with overwhelming interest from corporations.
  • To play their parts in the drive for “Going Green” many corporations are targeting high rates of recycled content in PP products for the future. PureCycle’s global commercial partners to date include L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Total, and BMW, as well as several high-quality investors.
  • There is a tremendous risk/reward opportunity at current prices, with revenue and EBITDA achieving hyper growth as plants come online with attractive economics, margins, and high ROIC. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP YE’25 is $237 with shares trading at $19.00 today.
The Play
There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. This is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity.
The SPAC Deal
PureCycle has struck a deal with ROTH CH Acquisition I that is expected to be finalized by the end of Q1 2021. PureCycle is to be acquired by ROTH CH Acquisition I with $76.5 million in trust. The deal is valuing the post-merger company at a $1.2 pro forma market capitalization and a $826 million Enterprise Value. The Enterprise Value is from the 118.3 million shares of ROCH capital sold at $10 plus the $310 million in debt that PureCycle raised by selling municipal bonds and $60 million in convertible notes minus the $667 million in cash that PureCycle will receive from the selling the shares. PureCycle plans on using the cash to finish Plant 1 and begin construction in Europe on Plant 2.
The Market
PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain.

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The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier to entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring.
An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way.
Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside
PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin.

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The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market, with rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP, it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential.
Unit Economics
Plant 1, which is being built now in Ironton, OH, will be PureCycle’s least efficient plant with modeled price / lb of $0.90 and EBITDA / lb of $0.45. Plant 2 will be a more efficient plant with improved unit economics of $0.55 / lb. The forecasted business is to include 5 plant clusters, that are much more efficient, with 825m pounds a year in capacity. The clusters give competitive advantage by leveraging the same infrastructure and reduced capex.
PureCycle’s model was structured around a municipal bond that they raised, negotiated at 14 cents a pound for feedstock. However, owners of plastic waste are generally charged cost to get rid of it, which gives PureCycle a great opportunity to leverage the system to capture pricing at a much cheaper price point.
The FCF and EBTIDA margin they are able to generate is extremely attractive at 58% and 56% even at the $1.00 price / lb. PureCycle’s growth strategy targets over $800 million in revenue with EBITDA margins in excess of 50% by 2024.
The current business plan has PureCycle building ~ 1 billion in capacity over the coming 3-4 years and at $1 a pound results in $1b of revenue. At a 50% EBTIDA margin, PureCycle will do 500m in EBTIDA. All of this results in extremely attractive top line math, unit economics into margin profile, and return on invested capital. Additionally, the funding on these facilities can get 80% debt for the project level capex.
Competition?
Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin.
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The Bears Case
Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they did not have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts.
Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity.
Guaranteed Revenue and LOI’s
Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle’s Plant 1. Many other major retailers have written LOI’s and are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. I believe that for investors, PureCycle having deals with blue chip companies for long durations significantly de-risks any danger to revenue projections.
Forecasting Valuation

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From a valuation perspective, by looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc.

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Although there are no direct comps to PureCycle as the technology is one of a kind, I looked at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) who also recently completed a SPAC deal. Both companies have been formed from P&G developed patents to address the plastic problem that the environment faces. Danimer did purchase the patents outright but have owned them for close to 10 years and are still working to get the business going. Based on side-by-side comparisons of both companies self-projected business you can clearly see that PureCycle is trading at a significant discount.
Conclusion
PureCycle (ROCH), with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high expected growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at an extremely attractive price point at 3.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed.
This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is extremely lucrative even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25 with shares are trading at $19 today.
submitted by AlphainvestR to SPACs [link] [comments]

Xeno's ノート- 10 Drift Nations Peppered Across The Globe In 2045

A batch of information regarding Drift Nations in the Time of the Red, to be used as hook or locations in your games if you feel so inclined. The second part is already being worked on.

10 Drift Nations Peppered Across The Globe In 2045

The Centino Flotilla (Nomad Family) Area of operations: Northern and Southern Pacific Numbers and leadership: 40,000+ members, ~8,000 vessels (of various size), led by Allegria Chung
The Centino Flotilla is one of the few good things finding their roots in the Fourth Corporate War, some would say. After only months of bitter fighting between Arasaka and Militech, everyone had but forgotten the two corporations, OTEC and CINO, responsible for kicking-off the conflict. Equally, no one was surprised to hear that the two companies ended up bleeding each other to death during the Sea War, mostly in the Pacific.
As with many others, the destruction of Arasaka's headquarters in Night City by a nuclear detonation came as a wake up call. But the situation was already past the return point for both corporations and, as the commercial entities teetered over the edge, their maritime forces came to an uneasy stand-off in the Pacific. It took all the diplomatic skills of one of CINO's captain, Grant Chung, to reach over the divide and bring the two parties together. Bound by years of mutual bloodletting and tragedies, they decided to merge forces and survive together against all odds.
After pooling their last resources together, the two parties spent the next year building their flotilla and roaming the Pacific Ocean. Determined to never be a tool of corporate greed ever again, they brought their skills to help rebuilding many of the Pacific Island nations, as well as other Drift Nations such as AquaDelphi or the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.
Now led by Grant's daughter, Allegria, the flotilla is a force to be reckoned with, its vessels flying the teal wave emblem being seen all over the Pacific. Specialized in reconstruction of seashore communities and shepherding Ghost Fleets toward places where they could be recycled, they are one of the new binding links of the Pacific ocean nations.
AquaDelphi (Fallen Coporate Dream) Location: South-West of Hawaii Estimated population and leadership: 30,000+, organized in guilds with a Central Council of 5
AquaDelphi's project came out during the corporate golden years, sprouting off OTEC's board of director's collective hubris. Not unlike Night City, AquaDelphi was designed to serve as the new standard by which future cities would be built. And no one ever blamed the OTEC heads for lack of ambition.
Mobilizing all the resources from their conglomerate, the maritime corporation set their view on a territory close to Hawaii. Buying the ownership from the fallen US federal government was a piece of cake at the time and construction began quickly. Centered around the company headquarters, the city was to hold the largest library humankind ever put together, a massive seaport complete with dry docks, and utopian housing for the corporate families among other pharaoh-like projects. The whole place was powered by harnessing geothermal energy and run by the in-house AI, Pythia.
Unfortunately, as Fate is wont to, AquaDelphi was still under construction when the Fourth Corporate War came knocking. The green spaces of the housing district and the ancient white stones of the library were the first to go when the bombings started, then it was the turn of OTEC headquarters. As long as the monstrous steel towers stood upright, most of the population tried to keep the dream alive despite Pythia's more and more frequent erratic outbursts; but it was only delaying the inevitable exodus toward Hawaii.
Nowadays, AquaDelphi is slowly being rebuilt, thanks mostly to her massive sea port becoming one of the major places for ship breaking. Refugees gradually return to a place the Kress administration would not touch with a ten foot pole and dream of renaissance, but many are wary of the corporate nightmares lying in wait, among which Pythia...
New R'lyeh (Reckoners Cthuluny) Location: South Pacific Estimated Population and Leadership: 6,000+ under the leadership of the Dunwich Congregation
A decade ago, nobody had heard of the Dunwich Congregation. Only specialist were aware of this reckoner cult, led by austere people in outmoded black suits. Anyone would have told you that their idea of a cosmic entity with far too many tentacles and consonants in its name was never going to appeal to the masses. But the community endured, centered around their faith in Lovecraft's writings.
The news then dropped one day, six years ago: the congregation had purchased a rotten weather outpost in the empty corner of Southern Pacific. Reports of a growing shanty town came back, brought by passing ships and still no one expected them to survive once again. But they did, sending more missionaries across the world, armed with the Cthulu Mythologies; and their numbers grow steadily if slowly. Their declared goal in establishing New R'lyeh is to find old R'lyeh, a sunken city supposedly holding either a sleeping Cthulu or a way to connect with them. No one will speak openly about life in New R'lyeh but rumors of cultural segregation, weird rites and human sacrifices are legion. Whatever the truth, they are there to stay and never relent.
Their deep sea explorations and general presence are not to the taste of the European Space Agency (ESA), whose Deepdown outposts have been established there for decades in order to retrieve low-orbit material brought back to Earth in the area. The assaults led by ESA's underwater elite troops, the Nemos, stay fruitless as the cultists proved to hard to remove from the area. With number swelling steadily every year, New R'lyeh keeps growing weirder and is not going anywhere.
Cape Horn Wreckers (Scavvers Union) Location: Cape Horn area Numbers and Leadership: Up to 500 members. Leadership unknown.
Many places still struggle with the aftermath of the last Corporate War. Take Cape Horn, for example. The southernmost end of South America was for centuries the standard against which sailors measured their abilities and, more recently, a strategical passage to control for commercial and military purposes. Needless to say the place saw bitter fighting during the Sea War.
Which is why everybody started clapping when Argentinians and Chileans publicly decided to put their differences aside and find ways to clear up Cape Horn for maritime shipping once peace returned. Weary of corporate task forces, they decided to hire a multitude of small operators with designated areas to work on, in exchange for advantageous prices buying back salvaged material, as well as a share of any reclaimed equipment. Little did they know this would help turn their myriad of contractors in the now infamous Cape Horn Wreckers.
After only a couple of years, the small contractor crews started to work as a cooperative, granting them better negotiating power when selling back salvaged materials; while limited oversight allowed them to keep for themselves smaller ships and various pieces of armament at they saw fit. When the shipwrecks became too scarce and maritime shipping sputtered anew, the Wreckers naturally started using scramblers to lure passing vessels aground and pillage them.
By the time Chile and Argentina decided to intervene, it was too late. The Wreckers could stand on their own against national armies and navies. The international community obligingly looked aside for years but recent incursions in the Drake Passage forced foreign powers to start face the problem more directly. As a start, a series of bounties were set for anyone able to help identify and capture the Wreckers' leaders ...
North Atlantic Trade Hub (High Seas Trade Post) Location: Midway between the Azores and Ireland Population and leadership: 127,520 under joint Corporate-European Council oversight.
It took decades in the making for this trade platform to come out of the waves two years ago in the middle of Northern Atlantic. Decades of negotiations between Kaerms, the European maritime shipping titan, and European Council representatives during which American and Asian competitors took the lead. The North Atlantic Trade Hub is supposed to the European answer to this situation. Fearing Europe loss of speed in the maritime shipping and shipbuilding areas, N.A.T.H (as most familiarly call it) was conceived with the dual purpose in mind.
NATH is in reality an atoll of starfish-shaped platforms working in close relationship. On one side you will find the state of the art Noatun shipyards, pumping out small or medium trade vessels at an increasing rhythm and with a focus set on affordability and durability, the "sea mules" of the reborn sea trade. Paired with this, you will find a constellation of piers and decentralized trading centers, hosting a wide variety of small corporation and independent traders.
To keep their edge sharp, the European Union agreed to let the platform become a de facto city state with a policy of "high wages - low taxes" for five years granted to any worker, engineer or researcher choosing to migrate there; under the condition that they move to Europe and naturalize at the end of their contract.
As for now, the NATH managed its primary objective of becoming Europe's gateway for Northern Atlantic trade. The sea mules sell decently enough but are yet to threaten the Asian shipyards, the real mastodons of the industry. In the meantime, slack standards benefited many of the grey economy operators: if you need European gear, for cheap, then head on over before time's up and the forces of regulations start to crack down!
The Nansen Nation (Stateless Society) Area of Operations: Mediterranean Sea Estimated numbers and Leadership: ~200,000 citizens; 60,000+ vessels; led by the council of 500
Saying the Mediterranean sea has a millennia-long history of serving as the interface for human commerce and migrations comes to no surprise for anyone. If commerce was said to tighten the bonds across the sea, migrations became an increasingly divisive subject for trans-Mediterranean summits during the 20th century. Many ventured off the Mediterranean shore and tried to immigrate to Europe, often risking their lives in the process; while "Fortress Europe" focused inwardly on its own success and only offered token help to the migrants if they returned home.
The situation became a nightmare during the Middle-East meltdown of the late 90's. Hundreds of thousands of humans ended up stranded at sea, roaming the Mediterranean as ghosts, stuck between war-torn countries on one side and a paradise out of reach on the other. And Europe kept letting only a few in, openly picking and competing over whichever individuals they thought could benefit their countries the most.
By the time African states managed to open their door more widely and benefit from the influx of population, many refugees then refused to return to land. Living for many years at seas, they had learned to make a living off of the waters and to navigate the inland sea like no other nation; turning them into peerless transporters and smugglers with a central role in the Mediterranean.
After electing a council of 500 hundred captains, the multi-cultural community chose their name from the Nansen passport delivered to stateless individuals a century before that. Their counters can be found in any major port of the inland sea, under the purple Phoenician letter N, offering their services to anyone looking to move someone or something discreetly over the sea. Europeans pay double, it goes without saying.
Safaniya-Zakum (Oil Extraction Complex) Location: Persian Gulf Estimated Population and Leadership: 80,000+ inhabitants and workers led by local royals
"A technological prowess" is what the Safaniya-Zakum complex is often described as. Both proponents and opponents of the project do tip their hat to its execution. Using a blend of time-proven and cutting edge technologies, a network of oil rigs, fishing piers, gas ducts and housing blocks is now stretching out above the waves of the Persian Gulf, all the way from Kuwait to the Hormuz Strait.
Proponents of the Saf-Za complex call it "the phoenix chant of a reborn Middle-East". Many put forward the accent set on sustainability and multi-cultural society, overcoming the ancient divisions. Not only the complex's only operator, a state-run company, manages to extract oil and gas from the sea bed again, but the ancient traditions of fishing and pearl culture are brought back. Considering the desolated lands of Iran and United Arab Emirates on both coasts, it is hard not to perceive the Saf-Za network as a cry of defiance against defeatism and a sense of doom.
Opponents call it "the swan song of a dying industry", preferring to point at the predominance of CHOOH² and deploring the refusal to let go of antiquated technologies. Others underline the complex's authoritarian regime and omnipresent police. Any visitors hoping to set a foot in will have to provide a full genetic profile and suffice to say that anyone even remotely affiliated to PetroChem or SovOil will never have a chance to peek inside.
With the extremely high level of difficulty regarding the obtaining of any information from inside the complex, experts are left wondering if the Safaniya-Zakum structure will hold long enough between intern fracture lines and outside pressure; long enough to recreate the major center of trade between India and the Eastern coast of Africa the region once was.
Deep Level Recovery HQ (Artificial Corporate Island) Location: Bay of Bengal Estimated Population and Leadership: ~7,000 employees led by D.L.R CEO and Face Kanchan Bonse
When the first Deepdown bubbles experimentation appeared decades ago, nobody expected any one else than military actors or some of the largest mega-corporations of the time to take the industry's lead toward expansion into civilian markets. But during the late 2020's, such actors had their compass set on rebuilding their power and returning to pre-war balance. Which suited someone who had been swimming under the radar for a bit.
Kanchan Bonse grew up following her corporate executive mother along a wide variety of postings. She emerged from her childhood with two passions: wreck diving and corporate power play. In the following years, she worked along the Indian coastlines on maritime salvage projects or post-disaster rescue operations. During those formative years, she lost nothing of her passions but gained a thick address book filled with talented if disgruntled, under-payed workers and engineers. Deep Level Recovery had all the ingredients to come to existence.
After building the core of her future corporation using her personal fortune; Bonse focused on developing proprietary designs for underwater habitats and workshops, allowing her technicians too work longer underwater. Spending many years experimenting and enhancing their techniques during humanitarian crises in South-East Asia, DLR took no side during the Fourth Corporate War but only gained power in the aftermath by landing many lucrative contracts all over the world.
Decades later, their glass bubble headquarters sit on waters granted by the Indian government as a thankful gesture. Visitors can admire there both the company's humanitarian projects and Deepdown habitat designs destined to the richest fringe of the planet. It is said that Kanchan Bonse only dives for pleasure these days but seems to be keeping tabs on elite divers across the world.
Far Yue City (Modular Floating City State) Location: South China Sea Estimated population and Leadership: 750,000 to 1,000,000 with a Central Representative Council
The fate of Hong Kong is one of the many tragedies of our times. After years of inner fighting and outside influence, the vibrant city was trying to recover when the Fourth Corporate War hit the world. A tragedy that climaxed with a biochemical attack for Hong Kong, closing that chapter on an abrupt end and leaving the rest of the wold with nothing but the Ghost World for memories. But that was without taking in account those who had to run prior to the events...
Since 2027 it has been noted that many members of the diaspora converged towards the Spratly islands to reunite with refugees from the Fragrant Harbour. Many former cargo vessels were bought as well as the maximum amount of TEU's they could get their hands on. In a matter of years a medium size fleet assembled with its inhabitants carrying their whole lives and families aboard, amidst a tangle of TEU's whose assembly became reminiscent of Kowloon's Walled City.
Early on, the ensemble stuck together giving life to a vivid culture of community and ingenuity. Workshops found new ways of extracting the most out of their minimal space and reduced resources. Personal networks connected and shared outside connections. The place became known as Far Yue City. By that time it was already able to travel as a group, approaching the coast of neighbouring countries, engaging in trade and knowledge sharing in exchange for protection.
Nowadays Far Yue city is able to criss-cross the whole South China sea as a whole, but more often fragmented; bringing city-sized dense assemblages of shops, schools, apartments, workshops and other gambling halls to various neighboring countries despite some local grumblings. For there is no better place in the region to obtain rare information, enjoy Dim Sum, place a bet, get a light-tattoo or learn hacking techniques than one of those floating districts sporting the white orchid emblem.
Ivory Sails (Free Navy) Area of operation: Worldwide Estimated numbers and Leadership: ~20,000 troops, ~2,000 boats, led by Ian Sharpgrove
The history of the Ivory sails is a tale of danger, daring actions and glory. Or it is a litany of war crimes, greed and ruthlessness. It usually depends on which side of the conflict you were. The Ivory Sails came to the world during the harsh days of the Sea War. As Militech and Arasaka were trading blows on land, sea, in the air, and in the cyberspace; their allies and subsidiaries destroyed each other; creating opportunities for professional outfits. Some of them at sea.
In came Ian Sharpgrove, raising out of obscurity at the tail end of the conflict and bringing with him a highly-specialized crew tailored for special operations. There was no raid the Sharpgrove Unit would fear to undertake, no desperate rearguard action they would not fight, no mission dangerous enough for them. Eventually managing the dubious feat of selling their services to most of the actors on both sides of the conflict, Sharpgrove and his troops made a name for themselves and soon enough everyone was ready to pay them so they would not fight for the other side.
This "sense of realpolitik winds", as he puts it himself, was what permitted now admiral Sharpgrove and his faithful troops to emerge rich and powerful out of the conflict. But their reputation was forever stained with infamy. In a transparent laundering effort, the group was re-named Ivory Sails and oriented themselves toward "peacekeeping" and "police actions", with a sprinkling of highly-publicized humanitarian stunts to seduce the medias.
Nowadays the Ivory Sails can be found anywhere across the globe training coastguard navies, securing areas for corporate clients, escorting refugee convoys and other such actions. Each time extracting a true ransom in exchange for their presence. But Sharpgrove knows the new golden age of privateers is reaching its end and takes every opportunity to line his pockets, mercilessly resorting to piracy if needed, before someone finally "retires" him once and for all.
submitted by ZhtWu to cyberpunkred [link] [comments]

ROCH DD: Acquisition of PureCycle

ROCH DD: Acquisition of PureCycle
PureCycle: The Overlooked Green Play
Summary
  • Polypropylene (“PP”) plastic has a $98 billion global market spread across a wide range of industries and products of which <1% of that market is derived from recycled material.
  • PureCycle is a technology leader in recycling PP, it possesses a patented and proven purification process that produces nearly virgin-quality resin from plastics.
  • Strong pushes from both consumers and regulatory bodies to move towards the use of recycled plastic make for a great opportunity in an untapped market.
  • Despite strong market demand, PureCycle is the only player in the game with both the technology and cost competitiveness to supply recycled PP. As a result, it has already been approached with overwhelming interest from corporations.
  • To play their parts in the drive for “Going Green” many corporations are targeting high rates of recycled content in PP products for the future. PureCycle’s global commercial partners to date include L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Total, and BMW, as well as several high-quality investors.
  • There is a tremendous risk/reward opportunity at current prices, with revenue and EBITDA achieving hyper growth as plants come online with attractive economics, margins, and high ROIC. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP YE’25 is $237 with shares trading at $19.00 today.
The Play
There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. This is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity.
The SPAC Deal
PureCycle has struck a deal with ROTH CH Acquisition I that is expected to be finalized by the end of Q1 2021. PureCycle is to be acquired by ROTH CH Acquisition I with $76.5 million in trust. The deal is valuing the post-merger company at a $1.2 pro forma market capitalization and a $826 million Enterprise Value. The Enterprise Value is from the 118.3 million shares of ROCH capital sold at $10 plus the $310 million in debt that PureCycle raised by selling municipal bonds and $60 million in convertible notes minus the $667 million in cash that PureCycle will receive from the selling the shares. PureCycle plans on using the cash to finish Plant 1 and begin construction in Europe on Plant 2.
The Market
PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain.
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The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier to entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring.
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An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way.
Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside
PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin.
The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market, with rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP, it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential.
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Unit Economics
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Plant 1, which is being built now in Ironton, OH, will be PureCycle’s least efficient plant with modeled price / lb of $0.90 and EBITDA / lb of $0.45. Plant 2 will be a more efficient plant with improved unit economics of $0.55 / lb. The forecasted business is to include 5 plant clusters, that are much more efficient, with 825m pounds a year in capacity. The clusters give competitive advantage by leveraging the same infrastructure and reduced capex.
PureCycle’s model was structured around a municipal bond that they raised, negotiated at 14 cents a pound for feedstock. However, owners of plastic waste are generally charged cost to get rid of it, which gives PureCycle a great opportunity to leverage the system to capture pricing at a much cheaper price point.
The FCF and EBTIDA margin they are able to generate is extremely attractive at 58% and 56% even at the $1.00 price / lb. PureCycle’s growth strategy targets over $800 million in revenue with EBITDA margins in excess of 50% by 2024.
The current business plan has PureCycle building ~ 1 billion in capacity over the coming 3-4 years and at $1 a pound results in $1b of revenue. At a 50% EBTIDA margin, PureCycle will do 500m in EBTIDA. All of this results in extremely attractive top line math, unit economics into margin profile, and return on invested capital. Additionally, the funding on these facilities can get 80% debt for the project level capex.
Competition?
Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin.

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The Bears Case
Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they did not have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts.
Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity.
Guaranteed Revenue and LOI’s
Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle’s Plant 1. Many other major retailers have written LOI’s and are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. I believe that for investors, PureCycle having deals with blue chip companies for long durations significantly de-risks any danger to revenue projections.
Forecasting Valuation
From a valuation perspective, by looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc.
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Although there are no direct comps to PureCycle as the technology is one of a kind, I looked at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) who also recently completed a SPAC deal. Both companies have been formed from P&G developed patents to address the plastic problem that the environment faces. Danimer did purchase the patents outright but have owned them for close to 10 years and are still working to get the business going. Based on side-by-side comparisons of both companies self-projected business you can clearly see that PureCycle is trading at a significant discount.

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Conclusion
PureCycle (ROCH), with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high expected growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at an extremely attractive price point at 3.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed.
This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is extremely lucrative even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25 with shares trading at $27 today.

DISCLOSURE: I am currently Long common stock of ROCH. All investment decisions are yours to make.


submitted by AlphainvestR to TheDailyDD [link] [comments]

The History of the Arretian Merchant Republic [from foundation to modern day] - warning 5,000 words

Feathers over Arretia is an indie RPG dealing with the most serious criminal elements threatening society: smol birbs. The game takes place in the fictional city of Arretia, a modern setting with some minor fantasy elements.
HISTORY
PART I
THE FOUNDING MYTHS
All great cities of the Ancient World have foundation myths, Arretia is no different. There are competing stories that claim legitimacy as the “true” foundation myth of the city. Both have considerable academic merit and the debate has continued for centuries as to which is the “true” myth. However recent excavations on the Mount of Cages, which contains some of the most ancient remains of the old part of the city, have revealed a third story in recent years that is as popular as it is fantastic.
Myth 1 – The Aristotelian Connection
334BC
Crowned King of Macedon at age 20 with the death of his father Phillip II, Alexander consolidated power on the Greek countryside, taking on Illyria, Thebes and Athens before continuing his father’s life’s work: the invasion of Persia.
In 334 BC Alexander set foot upon the shore of Asia Minor opposite the Hellespont and claimed the entirety of it’s continent with the ceremonial thrust of a spear into the ground.
His tutor and advisor Aristotle, perhaps the smartest man alive at the time, prudently informed the young conqueror with a whisper that this moment should be commemorated for posterity as generations would want to know where it was the gods themselves acquiesced to his demands for land.
Alexander’s exact response isn’t known but he broadly let Aristotle know that if it was so important, he could do it.
So a small shrine was erected at the spot where the spear lay, consecrated by a priestess of Delphi retained with the party for such events and a plaque was written in Greek and Persian telling all who could read of its history. Aristotle himself dictated the passage and etched his own mark into the bottom with hammer and chisel.
In May 334 BC, when Alexander defeated Memnon of Rhodes in The Battle of the Granicus River, the first blow against the might of Persia, Aristotle recommended a similar monument be made. Alexander was impudent and demanded the tutor just make a sign pointing to the last shrine to save time. A slip of the lip caused that sign to read “Με αυτόν τον τρόπο στην πλάκα του Αριστοτέλη” or “This way to Aristotle’s plaque.”
Some say that this mistake made its way back to the young King who decided to make sure such a mistake could never again occur, founding innumerable cities in his own name from that day forward. Ironically, playing right into Aristotle’s original ploy to get Alexander serious about building a legacy and not just pursuing glory in vanity.
Over decades, the spear was eventually stolen and the shrine looted but the plaque remained stalwart and vivid as the day it was carved, as did the signs directing people to its location.
But “Aristotle’s plaque” became shortened to “Aristotle’s [land]” and eventually was misread as Arretia in a Roman census which stuck around to the present day.
Myth 2 – The Disgraced Commander
323 BC
Even before Alexander’s retreat from India in the final year of his life, the empire he had spent years building was already in danger of crumbling.
Disloyal generals, governors and bureaucrats of the West who once groveled at his feet were no longer cowed upon his departure to lands further and further East. Threats of rebellion simmered and the empire was already being carved up by conspirators in back rooms long before Alexander ever lay upon his deathbed.
Before the Wars of the Diadochi tore this empire asunder a dozen times, one of Alexander’s most loyal allies Antigonus I who had followed him all the way from Greece having served his father Philip II had his son Antigonus II sent in secret back to his holdings in Macedon with a fortune in gold to build support for his claim to the empire once Alexander finally died without an heir.
However his return was slow and exorbitant as the young noble caroused at every city and village on the long journey from Persia and by the time he had finally reached The Hellespont, not only was much of his fortune squandered but his own party betrayed him, throwing him off of the gangway at the last second before boarding ship which sailed towards Crete. Either bad fortune or the very wrath of the gods saw it cast to the bottom of the Aegean where the gold remains undiscovered to this day.
Learning of his son’s incompetent failure, Antigonus I had his name stricken from history and rewrote his family lineage so that Demetrius I was his issue, not Antigonus II. Historians debate how much gold was lost in this event but many agree that had the trip been successful, Antigonus I might have bought-off Ptolemy long enough to keep the empire from falling to civil war.
Yet locals still recall in vivid detail the folly of Antigonus II and took to calling the area where he was betrayed as ανόητος ηλίθιος στη νερό (silly idiot in the water) which was shortened over time to ατοςιος σερό and eventually αρτηρία or Arretia today.
Myth 3 – The First Flight
440 BC
In 1989, a small excavation at the Mount of Cages began as a joint effort by the Committee of Arretian Historical Preservation (CAHP) and the Fine Arts College of Arretia (FACA) to find relics of the city’s past succeeded and may have changed history with its discovery of a plaque far more ancient than any others before it.
On this plaque in worn Copper and Jade was the following: 𒀀𒆷𒀸𒊭𒄠𒈪𒅖𒉺𒋫𒀀𒀸𒉿𒈾𒀜𒋾𒅖 (Wanattis patas Alasammis) along the faint impression of a human foot.
Tests determined the plaque to be authentic, tracing back to the middle of the 5th Century B.C.
The human foot was determined to be that of a young woman.
One enterprising youth working on a PHD in Comparative Linguistic Studies suggested that the engraving might be Luwian Swadesh, a form of ancient Cuneiform thought to be used by the Trojans.
Translated the plaque reads: “[where from] the sea [a] woman’s foot.”
Although the subject on intense debate between Arretian, Turkish and Greek scholars, it is believed by some that this spot was where Helen of Troy first stepped on land after being abducted by Prince Paris in the time immediately before the Trojan War. This theory is buoyed due to Arretia’s proximity to the ruins of Troy and soil erosion patterns suggest that the Mount of Cages was at one time a natural jetty sticking out into the sea.
Now a Professor Emeritus of the Linguistics Department of the FACA, Dr. Merlin Bruce Codlack’s book “Beneath the Mount” maintains that the old form of Trojan gave rise to the common use of the name Arretia for the area over centuries as the spoken language was invaded by Greek cognates which turned “Alsammis” and “patas” to “Arretpatas” by the time of Alexander who adopted the name simplifying it to Arretia in the process.
PART II
ANCIENT HISTORY
The meteoric ascendancy of Greece during the time of Alexander brought prosperity to Asia Minor along with immigration at rates unheard of. Due to its strategic position in a natural harbor, a small trading community sprang up in the region which grew at an accelerated pace due the influx of trade between itself, Byzantium and Rhodes.
Ancient merchants who spoke of the glory of the Colossus as it was being built in the 3rd Century BC made mention of the cheap provisions that could be had a few days sail further along the coast at Arretia which now boasted a considerable farming community lured to the area by cheap land and fertile soil.
Migrating herds of black cattle moving along transits laid by the Hittites 1,000s of years earlier became an increasingly common site in the town. Before long, the citizens had erected crude palisades and a considerable watchtower upon what would later be known as the Mount of Cages where a band of far-sighted archer mercenaries from across the Greek world stood ever vigilant, paid in turn with generous land grants and even more gracious payment than could be found anywhere else in the Mediterranean.
PART III
PRE-ROMAN OCCUPATION
Centuries of good fortune, prosperity and mild weather turned the small town into a bustling city by the time of Rome. Generations of increasingly confident watchmen and prudent city defense planning had turned the once wooden tower into a stone monolith which through the clever use of mirrors and a coal fire was able to light the sea for miles around at night while lenses developed by Archimedes himself at Syracuse were re-engineered to make Arretian scouts unrivaled marksmen capable of sighting fleets days before they would normally be spotted – in no small part egged on by a merchant class of considerable power which gambled heavily and recklessly with commodity speculation. A common phrase at the time was “no grain ship can leave Alexandria for Rome without some Arretian knowing about it, selling and trading its cargo before the sails are even unfurled.”
All of these marvels paled in comparison to Rhodes to the South and Arretians prided themselves on being the underdog rival, resulting in a hundred fortunes lost beneath the soaring arm of the Colossus won back under Arretia’s stone monolith.
Despite most mapmakers placing Arretia firmly within the bounds of the territories of the Seleucid Empire, the only tax ever paid to that crumbling backwater was a single pure silver slug approximately 10 grams in weight paid annually by one of the many merchant families via courier addressed directly to the King of the Seleucids. When this tradition first started with the founding of the city during the days of Alexander, such a payment was a king’s ransom but over time became so much of a pittance that the families boasted decades of “taxes” were pre-paid in their basement next to the cheap wine and how droll it all seemed that some distant king truly needed the money.
In 217 BC, the Selucid King Antiochus III the Great in an attempt to revive the dying empire made war on Egypt and lost at the Battle of Raphia. Though bloodied, the king engaged in a restructuring of his lands which was mostly focused on quelling rebellions and consolidating power in the East while giving up on retaking Syria for the time being. In service to these efforts, he raised taxes and Arretia found itself the subject of an event that has been colloquially known as The Shaming of The King.
The story goes that the Seleucid King’s tax collector arrived in Arretia to find its walls (once wooden now solid stone) manned with troops in full battle regalia and the gate locked. However the side gate (known as the Eye of the Sling) was opened just enough that he might crawl through it and a small banner made of finest silk confirmed that was expected of him saying “για τους φτωχούς (for the poor)” with an arrow pointing down at it. The tax collector humbly crawled down into the gate finding it covered in animal muck and mud along the bottom. When he crossed the threshold the patriarchs of the merchant families stood proud and tall alongside strongboxes arrayed before him. When the tax collector stood up, covered in filth, the men tipped the boxes over, showering his feet in silver coins a hundred deep which sank quickly into the mud before walking silently back to their estates without a word. Tradition states that the tax collector spent days sifting through the muck as it hardened, collecting a small fortune before realizing he had no possible way to carry it back to his King in the East. Legend states that he stole a muck-rakers cart and escaped through the gate which had been left open in the meantime with a pile of silver and dung half a man high. He was eventually able to find passage back in less humiliating fashion but the message was clear: Arretia thought King Antiochus III to be a common beggar, no more.
PART IV
ROMAN INVOLVEMENT
The Vote
By the 1st Century BC Rome’s ascendancy was all but assured. While Carthage remained a valuable trade partner, its destruction in the Third Punic War half a century earlier made even the richest houses of Arretia quake with fear. In 145 BC, exactly one year after her strongest ally was burnt to the ground and her fields salted the great houses organized a plebiscite.
All adult male citizens and freemen or women who owned property were allowed to vote. Voting occurred over a three week period allowing even the most disparate of farmers or merchants out at sea an opportunity to vote.
The vote was simple: shall Arretia resist Rome, yay or nay? Nay votes were symbolized by a feather from a rooster, chosen at random in the market stalls from vendors as part of a lot system while the yay votes came from hens along similar lines. Over three weeks it is said there was not a single unplucked chicken in Anatolia. On the final day it was found that the ‘nays’ had won by a landslide and the great houses debated how best to interpret this matter.
The three richest houses proclaimed they would sign a treaty of friendship with Rome, offering them a similar deal to that offered to the now defunct Seleucid Empire.
Over the Winter a grand ceremony was planned and preparations made for the envoy.
The Landing
Two great ships were built, The Romulus of Apollo and The Remus of Februus, adorned in gold and silver respectively. Carried by sails of silk, rowed by the tallest slaves of Parthia, full of exotic spices from the Far East, captained by men who claimed to have reached the Southern-most Tip of Africa and full of a ransom fit for any three emperors combined, along with a single daughter of each great home trained in Latin, the fleet anchored off Rome’s Portus artificial harbor off the north bank of the Tiber on April 5th, 144 BC on the dawn of the Festival of Fortuna Publica, or the "luck of the people."
The young women approached the senate and handed forth reams of purple vellum explaining the offer of Arretia to the upstart hegemon. Lucius Aurelius Cotta, Counsul a the time and elected during the Fortuna Publica festival in 154 BC coincidentally, accepted the terms: Arretia would provide logistical support, technical expertise and ships to the Roman Navy 10 talents of silver annually paid to the Roman Senate Build a new Pantheon in Arretia for the Roman Gods Rome would exempt her citizens of any taxes or drafts Rome would become her protectorate should any enemies declare war on the merchant republic
The Byzantine Period
While Rome seemed unstoppable, Arretia was a haven of intellectual involvement and oligarchy as the richest men and women of the known world demanded citizenship, if only to avoid the harsh taxation of Rome at home. Soon there was a row of homes, all empty, where dozens of Arretian “citizens” “lived” but even the most fastidious bureaucrat in Italy was hopelessly lost in the ocean of paperwork Arretian civil servants produced daily.
So it was that when Constantine the Great decreed that Constantinople would be the new Capitol of the Roman Empire, the whole of Arretia held its breath. Along with his tax reform and re-issuance of the currency (debasing it with cheaper metals and forcing all Roman citizens to pay in coin for government fees and taxes), Constantine demanded Arretia triple their existing tribute until Constantinople was finished with construction of the Hagia Sophia (Megale Ekklesia or Big Church) Arretian merchants, craftsmen, builders, surveyors and brick layers descended upon the new city like a flock seagulls upon an uncovered market stall, determined to have it finished in record time.
Legend has it that for every brick laid in Constantinople, another was laid in Arretia. The old Pantheon was retrofitted behind closed gates and under grand tents. On February 15th, 360 AD during the reign of the emperor Constantius II when The Hagia Sophia was concentrated and opened to the public. While The Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem had more artifacts on display, The Hagia Sophia held the seat of the Ecumenical Patriarch and The Pantheon still had the largest dome in the world, The Ecclesiae Baptismate (Church of the Baptism) contained by some estimates nearly 40% of all pieces of the True Cross to exist in the world at the time, ironically making the Cross replica itself nearly 74 feet tall.
The Plague
The Plague of Justinian 541 AD killed untold millions throughout the world, originating in either Asia or Africa, the first documented reports of its involvement according to Byzantine source Procopius was in Egypt’s port of Pelusium.
The Arretians tell a different story.
In 540 AD a sailor from the Far East was found floating in the Indian Ocean 100 miles off the coast of Axum by an unknown Arretian vessel. Its captain recorded in stone tablet (as all wood and papers had dissolved in the salt water) this message. He then scuttled the vessel to the bottom of the sea to protect the world as best he could and forestall the inevitable coming devastation:
The [man] is turning black before our eyes as though some fire burns from within his groin and [armpits]. The spits the most vile [substances] and convulses in the night. I notice [on myself] the same growing painful lumps and it is my duty to stop this [plague] before my crew are infected. May God have mercy on [us].
Spies and merchants (if there ever was truly a distinction to the Arretians) reported on rumors in Pelusium of a sickness that spread like locusts.
The 15 Great Houses of Arretia held an emergency meeting that very night, un-customarially sharing all possible information on the sickness and concluded in a matter of hours that the city must survive, no matter the costs.
In the most Arretian way possible a 2 day state of emergency was declared. Any and all food stores were seized, any and all ship traffic in the harbor was seized, the bowels of all ships emptied while furious captains were silenced with bags of silver too large to carry by any one pack animal, and sent back to their port of call without explanation.
The countryside was picked clean and all foreign citizens warned to not return to the city upon pain of death. The walls were redoubled with temporary wooden facades, the gates sealed shut with leaded locks for which no key was made. From the highest aviaries to the lowest jetties, not an inch of the city went upturned. Every fishing boat was impressed and triple staffed for back-to-back shifts until the sea around Arretia was scraped clean of all marine life.
On the last night, all boats were returned to the harbor where they were dismantled, along with the harbor itself while the stone edifices of the great houses and mansions of the typically unoccupied but ostentatious ‘Roman Quarter’ were thrown into the harbor creating a temporary breakwater which was reinforced with pitch and tar until water sealed and a great fire set ablaze on the shore. Boiling water in so great a quantity bathed the city in salt, collected from windows, walls and the ground itself to preserve every scrap of meat and fish possible.
An especially hardy species of mushroom from far off Gaul of the Grooty Strain (brought over by some trader years earlier) was discovered growing underneath a porch and at once a massive team of laborers set to work retrofitting every basement, vault and catacomb into nurseries for the tiny gray intrusive species.
On the dawn of the third day Arretia had gone from a glittering example of the height of civility into a militarized, insular micro-nation where the rich and poor alike bore the filth of manual labor and the treasures of a dozen generations lay in the hands of foreign nations that had no idea why they had reversed centuries of trade policy on a whim.
Only Justinian’s spies had even a clue and they warned him that the Empire of Rome itself might do the same, a premise shouted down in the Senate a handful of times until bodies started piling up in the street, far too late to matter.
Accurate records are not possible but it is said Arretia lost a tenth of her population to starvation, rioting and disease. But not one single death from plague was ever noted.
By the time the Black Plague entered the world, Arretia had learned from the mistakes of the past and had years worth of imperishable stocked away in hidden caves with secondary and even third basements covered in edible plants that thrived in the dank, lightless environment supplying a grateful populous who still shared stories of the darkest time in her history. The Venetians claim to have invented the Quarantine but in fact, Arretia had perfected the practice while Venice was still flotsam floating in the Adriatic Sea.
PART V – THE OTTOMANS
Almost 500 years of constant war, against the Huns, Cumans, Samaritans, Sassanids, Seljuks and others on just her Eastern borders, the Byzantine Empire strained at the edges and much of Asia Minor was lost to the Turks. In 1071AD a number of very forward-thinking members of the Great Houses of Arretia sent spies along with the Roman Emperor Romanos IV Diogenes in his campaign to once again bring all of Anatolia under Roman rule. At the Battle of Manzikert on August 26, 1071AD two very important events took place:
  1. The Emperor himself was captured and would be paraded throughout the Seljuk Empire in chains before ransomed at a price even the Arretians found exorbitant
  2. The Arretians returned upon the fastest horses money could buy from dubious mercenary Pechenegs in the middle of the night still drunk on the glory of victory
The Great Houses were divided on whether or not to prop up an Empire that seemed on the brink of collapse who they had sunk mountains of gold and silver into in the hope that they could once again establish themselves in the hinterlands, whether they should take advantage of the weakness of Rome to declare independence and even take Constantinople while it remained unguarded by her legions or bend knee to the Turks. The matter was put to vote, however in order to maintain perfect secrecy only members of the ruling families were able to participate, those that were in the city at the time that is. By a margin of exactly 1 vote which came from what would later be described as “the desiccated corpse of a Pater familias dug up from a catacomb, adorned in sweet perfumes and operated by a series of pulleys and bellows,” Arretia switched sides.
Some say The Cross in The Ecclesiae Baptismate which had towered over pilgrims for hundreds of years was torn down that morning while other historians maintain it was buried under a nearby hill until such time as the city could be returned to its old faith safely. Whatever the case, the building was converted to a Grand Mosque and a procession left a few days later to pay homage to their new suzerain in Isfahan.
A cohort of 400 of the strongest boys Arretia had to offer arrived at the head of the caravan, to comprise the a contingent of troops that over time would come to be the Elite Janissary of the Ottoman Empire. With them came oxen laden with ten years worth of tribute in gold, and the plans for a massive highway to be built along the route to facilitate trade between the new allies.
Sultan Alp Arslan’s Grand Viser accepted the terms as dictated by the Arretians after hardly a glance at the treaty, so great was his desire to impress such a fabulously wealthy nation that came crawling on its knees without the rattle of a saber, they were essentially the same as offered the Romans before him and the Ottoman Fleet quadrupled in size with the flourish of a quill upon purple parchment.
The Arrentians, with the exception of those cohorts they sent every year and what few sailors they could not procure from elsewhere, remained circumspect of their new Ottoman masters and it is often said that even the Imam in the Grand Mosque still wore a cross under his robes. Though coffeehouses, hookah dens and other Near Eastern proprietors were already common in the city, a new flood of Turkish shops came and went as they realized that the Arretians were terribly nepotistic in their shopping patterns and the Great Houses were willing to sell storefronts with one hand while making sure no suppliers or contracts would ever make it through customs with the other. While the flag above the city changed shape and color, its people still walked through Roman style bathhouses and drank wine freely in the plazas and museums.
Over the centuries during the Siege of Malta in 1429 AD, Siege of Rhodes 1522 AD, the Second Siege of Malta in 1565 AD, and Constantinople itself in 1203 AD, 1204 AD, 1235 AD, 1236 AD, 1376 AD , 1391AD, 1394-1402AD, 1411AD, 1422 AD and finally 1453 AD, it is said the families of Arretia wept as openly as their once-bretherin Romans. There stands a plaque in the central plaza listing the name of every Arretian who died in those sieges, to the puzzlement of modern historians it seems that either those commissioning the plaque were unconcerned with accuracy or almost 10% of those three cities were comprised of Arretians. DNA testing of survivors is inconclusive but ongoing.
PART VI – MODERN HISTORY
The Ottoman Empire waned with time, eventually becoming the “Sick Man of Europe” and the West conspired for decades over who would get Arretia for their own like squabbling children looking at the will of a man on life support.
Following the conclusion of WW1 and the imposition of the Treaty of Sèvres on August 10th, 1920 Arretia was nominally under Italian rule for the first time in 100s of years.
In a drunken, semi-coherent speech in April 1923, ‘Il Duce’ Benito Mussolini (having recently succeeded in a coup the year previous and setting about dissolving any political opposition) proclaimed to an audience of fellow blackshirts that “Direct rule from Rome would begin again in Arretia by morning!”
The following morning Moussolini awoke with a hangover and a single feather on his pillow beside him. Thinking nothing of it, as he was used to errant feathers poking out of his pillow from time to time, he simply re-fluffed his own pillow to find it strangely heavy and lumpy.
Opening the case, he found it stuffed full of Italian Lire, exactly ₤ 2,250. The same amount he had mailed to his Mistress for rent that month. In a rush he grabbed a phone and had the operator connect him with her, who answered very surprised as she pointed out he himself had paid her rent via check and spent the night with her before leaving in the very early morning.
It took hours for his bank to confirm the check was genuine and his signature authentic. Moussolini called for Achille Starace, the Press Secretary of the Office of the Presidency of the Council and his brother Arnaldo Mussolini, the editor of the state-occupied Fascist newspaper Il Popolo, to shred any and all documentation of his speech the night before.
In a single night, Italian dreams of returning Arretia to its dominion vanished.
Rumor has it that Carmine Coppola heard the story from a relative who was there that night for the speech and told an impressionable Francis Ford Coppola about it in his childhood, sparking the famous horse’s head scene in 1972’s The Godfather. The Italian government has neither confirmed nor denied the connection.
Arretian pseudo-independence was celebrated by thousands of sailors between 1940 and 1943 who’s lives were protected by their ‘Eagle-eyed guides’ spotting submarines at the last second, steering unarmed convoys away from sea mines or even bad weather long range radar couldn’t pick up. During the Battle of Britain, those same guides filled in gaps left by long-range spotter balloons and rode along RAF Spitfires and P-51s when their own spotters, gunners and even pilots were too tired, wounded or shaken to keep the skies friendly.
Though not formally invited to the Yalta Conference in February, 1945, Arretian diplomats helped steer Marshall Plan funding for years, were instrumental in negotiations for the Treaty of Paris in 1951, creating the European Coal and Steel Community, were the first non-continental member of the EU in 1973, wrote almost half of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, kept the Common Currency negotiations from falling apart in 1999, bought half of all Greek Debt during the European Financial Crisis of 2008 and ironically now own half of all proven European Oil Reserves due to meddling in Brexit Negotiations just two years ago, buying North Sea drilling rights for pence on the Euro. While the EU is ruled from Brussels, most politicians would concede that most legislation is written in Arretia using Arretian ink by Arretian claws and hands alike.
submitted by eliteprephistory to fantasywriters [link] [comments]

Germany in its decline: how it is closing in on its fortress

Original by Esteban Hernández (spanish): https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/postpolitica/2021-01-15/alemania-merkel-merz-laschet-trumpismo-ue-china_2907927/
It is curious the informative interest that the Democratic primaries, the U.S. elections, the minimal details of the process of dismissal of Trump or Brexit, with all its vicissitudes, and the scarce attention that they arouse in Germany, have aroused in Spain. We have little news from Germany, except the usual praise for Merkel, for her management of the pandemic, for how well they are facing the crisis economically, or for the great help she is giving her companies to make the confinements viable. We should, however, be much more aware of what is happening in Berlin, because of the relevance of what happens there for Spain and for the EU, and because there is also a German dark side.
The struggle within the CDU, the German conservative party, for Merkel's replacement is a good illustration of this. This Friday, the process of electing the new president of the party begins, which will be decisive in determining who is the candidate for chancellor. And since everything points to the fact that the conservatives, the CDU and the Bavarian CSU, will win the next elections, it is likely that it will be decided this weekend who will be the new German leader, and therefore, what direction the EU will take in the coming years. It sounds strange that the election of a president should carry so much weight in the European arena, but let us remember that the current configuration of the Union owes a great deal to the decision and will of Merkel, whose skill has allowed a balance to be made between the different European interests and the application of glue when necessary.

Germanic Trump-ism

What happens in the CDU will also be relevant on a strictly political level, because Germany has a particular form of trumpism. It is not only that the AfD, the ultra party, has consolidated itself as one more actor in German politics, but that those underlying tendencies, nationalist, un-European, favorable to the old recipes of austerity, hostile to emigration and not at all socially cohesive, have penetrated substantially into the main right-wing party. Friedrich Merz, one of the three candidates for the presidency of the CDU, represents that profile. Of course, it has nothing to do with Trump's anti-institutional instinct, but his ideas have more points of connection than advisable. It must be understood that the AfD is not a formation with government possibilities, but it does exert influence over its political spectrum, and Merz is part of that. And it is not only Merz, there is a not inconsiderable part of German society that agrees on the objectives, and part of its economic elites, very well represented in the Bundesbank, are pushing in that direction. Without going any further, the German Federal Bank has just published a report in which it asks that the debt generated by the recovery fund go to the Member States and the EU. In short, the election of Merz would be bad news for Europe, and it would be bad news for Spain, and he is a candidate with possibilities of success, the one preferred by his militants.
His opponent is Armin Laschet, the preferred candidate of the party's establishment, and he brings a clear continuity with Merkel's line. He has less pull among the militancy than Merz, but he has the apparatus in his favor. The third candidate is Norbert Röttgen, a former Minister of the Environment, whom Merkel dismissed after losing the elections in the Rhineland with him as a candidate in 2012. He is an Atlantist, in favor of a harder line with China and Russia. The profiles of the candidates have been examined in greater depth by Luis Garicano and Esteban González Pons, who also warn that the winner of these elections may not be the candidate for chancellor. The new CDU leadership could opt for Jens Spahn, the current health minister, or Marcus Söder, the leader of the CSU (the Bavarian conservatives), if they run as candidates instead of the party president.
The basic question, however, lies much more in the ideas than in the people, in the vision they bring to their country, in the role it should play in the EU and in its economic proposals. In that order, there is nothing new about right-wing politics in recent years, and the choice will be between simple continuity or a drift towards tougher positions, and little else. This is bad news, because Germany is in a complex moment, and so is the European Union, and new perspectives are needed. We have already noticed the German problems, but it is worth noting that on this occasion they are particularly pressing, because the coronavirus crisis is leaving its mark and because they will be deeper in the future. A response is needed that is up to the moment. Let's see in what sense.

The German decline

There is one aspect that is not emphasized, but which is very relevant, and which Wolfgang Münchau reasonably defined as the "German decline". Used to the fact that the European champion has much more economic, financial and productive muscle than countries like ours, talking about decline may seem a bit bold, but that doesn't take away one iota of Münchau's sense, for example, when he states that, as much as the Merkel era is perceived as a golden period, it has also been "the moment when Germany lost its technological advantage due to a misguided approach to fiscal surpluses and lack of innovation. The German country has lost its technological advantage, which leads it to decline, if we compare it with China and the United States.
These bad decisions have also burdened the EU. At this point, it can be said that Germany has been a bad European leader, because it has done just the wrong thing. It has led the Eurozone in terms that were beneficial to it, but at the same time it has done something that has taken its toll on us. The Merkel era has been one of German domination, from which it has earned revenues, but it has not known how to use them. In essence, she has made two mistakes.

Gifting Europe

The architecture of the euro and the internal reforms generated an excess of capital in Germany, as Pettis and Klein detail, which was invested incompetently, among other things, in the Spanish brick, in the Spanish banks or in the American 'subprime', with the catastrophic results that we all know. That money should have been devoted to innovation, to bring the industry up to date and strengthen the domestic market, so that inequalities did not grow and that the purchasing power of much of its population was maintained. This did not happen, either in Germany or in the EU, and we have already begun to pay the bill: instead of creating a strong European space, the standard of living of the populations has fallen, technology is American or Chinese and everyday products are manufactured in China, as we have painfully seen in the pandemic.
But all this is based on a basic error, which must be underlined, since it does not concern only Germany but the whole of the EU. Europe had two strengths, its currency and its market. The latter, made up of millions of consumers with high purchasing power, gave it away. The move was as follows: European companies, tolerated and often encouraged by political leaders, decided to manufacture abroad, especially in China. That produced the Chinese growth, thanks to the fact that they not only produced, but also sold in Europe. With all that money, China was not satisfied with being the world's factory, but invested it in innovation, and now it is one of the great technological powers. On the other hand, the United States devoted a lot of resources to technological innovation, and its digital giants entered the European market fully, obtaining an important part of their income here. But it was also acquiring with the global funds that lead much of the income that European companies generate, either through participation in the shareholding, through acquisition or through bonds. The final distribution is as follows: China manufactures, the US is the financial power and the new technologies are shared by both. Europe is relegated to a secondary position in both aspects, which are decisive in the new context, and also Germany, whose highly qualified industry will find it difficult to compete.

The moment of ambition

All of this is relevant, not only to the past, but to weaving the future. It is not a matter of pointing out the mistakes and looking for those responsible, but of solving the problems. The German ruling class would do well to understand that the European Union is an opportunity, that the possibility they have of not continuing to fall is to push for the revival of Europe, of its market, of its consumers and of its values (yes, European culture is important). This is the moment to forget the old terms and no longer think about adapting to what exists, but to lead the construction of what will come. We must leave aside all that economistic thinking, dedicated to filling in statistics, and put plans in place to design the future. This is the time for ambition: to strengthen small and medium-sized enterprises, to generate jobs (and well paid jobs) and to think about leading not just the next step in innovation, but the second and third. And not as a simple well-intentioned gamble; rather as a condition for the possibility of reversing the trend, of halting the decline and of coming to the surface.
Europe, at present, has remarkable similarities with the Italian peninsula in Machiavelli's time, when cities tried to preserve their space, weaving and breaking alliances, engaging in battles and wars, while France and Spain were conquering it little by little. Machiavelli was one of the few to understand that the only way to preserve independence and his way of life was to give form to the union of all of them. Of course, economically and commercially, Europe is at that moment, and it would be logical for the main power, Germany, to contribute to the disentanglement, and to gain a different strategic autonomy, the one we need so much, that of money, prosperity, balanced growth and improved living standards. Unfortunately, none of this appears in the plans of the CDU, determined to continue living in the past, and whose prospects are similar to those of the fortress, with the Bundesbank as the maximum exponent of this blindness. This is no time to hide behind walls.
submitted by iagovar to europe [link] [comments]

How Hong Kong's demise represents a greater problem facing a rising China

Since the Hong Kong government introduced its highly controversial extradition bill last year, the wealthy cosmopolitan city of Hong Kong has been thoroughly wrecked by mass protests. At its peak in mid-2019, 2 million Hong Kongers marched in the streets against the government led by Carrie Lam. In its turmoil, large tracts of Hong Kong have seen battles fought between a now largely vanquished protest movement, and its once revered Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). Its foremost legislature occupied and vandalised by protestors, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) subtly threatening the city by garrisoning troops in neighboring Shenzhen stadiums as well as later on inside Hong Kong, A leading university occupied by desperate protestors under siege by police among many other watershed moments which have left a significant imprint on the Pearl of the Orients' history. It's fair to say that despite widespread anger at Carrie Lam for effectively destroying Hong Kong's political freedoms after the passage of its National Security Bill, the protest movement has largely run out of steam through its own shear fatigue. Nothing it seems, not the horror at Yuen Long when the mobs attacked bystanders, not the massive peaceful protests, not the vigilant and perseverent young protestors could seemingly stop the Chinese government in blatantly violating the agreement it signed with the UK when it handed over the territory.
When one fights for democracy and human rights, its preferable they don't stop in their brave fight, right? Communism didn't collapse in eastern europe in a day afterall, nor did Taiwan and South Korea magically become free countries promptly. But in this case, the people of Hong Kong didn't have a chance to succeed, not with the PLA on their doorstep and an increasingly nationalistic regime which stood completely behind Carrie Lam even as they didn't invite her to decide on the national security law.
But while one may grieve and weep over what was a great dazzling and culturally vibrant city, the free people of Hong Kong may have the last laugh. The sole reason why Hong Kong is such an economic powerhouse is how free the city is compared to China. It is ranked third in the ease of doing business, a number which is likely to trend badly in 2020 onwards. It didn't persecute members of Falun Gong, it was more open to the exotic nature of Feng Shui architecture, people were once allowed to advocate for Hong Kong's independence. What drove Hong Kong's economy since the day the British settled was the ability for a significant number of well educated, entrepreneurial and industrious citizens to live and work with none of the constraints mainland China imposes. It's why Macau is such a hub of gambling, and why since the handover, Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp grew as a reaction in the face of China's authoritarian shift. Hong Kong was a sanctuary for many Chinese from the terrors which lurked in Mao's China. When one removes the causation of Hong Kong's prosperity, you effectively destroy the city's identity and its economy. So what is the last laugh for the people of Hong Kong?
Leaving the city entirely.
It may sound odd, but already millions of Hongkongers have made it clear that they won't tolerate the Chinese government, last year a survey found 42% of Hongkongers said they would emigrate if they had the chance, with 23% already having made a plan to do so. The UK government has made clear it wants HK citizens to immigrate. So much so that they're now handing out a passport a minute to Hong Kong citizens. It now appears that China has inadvertently created a exodus of potentially massive proportions, like Germany before the Berlin Wall, Hongkongers are leaving with significant haste. For many, this was a predictable fate. Hong Kong was never always going to be free, this was a city which was once segregated by the British, and the handover agreement made it clear that in 2047 the city would be annexed. But this exodus represents a pressing issue which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been contending with since it ever existed. Educated people, rich people and productive people all hate Communism!. Well... in this case China isn't Communist, they're SINOs (Socialist In Name Only), but you get what I mean.
The Hong Kong exodus is going to be a tragic fate for the once great city, however its struggle represents a greater issue which China grips with but never wants to admit. The West is going to have an influx of exceptionally entrepreneurial, industrious and well educated citizens who care deeply about freedom and democracy, and that's the lost talent and capital which Beijing desperately needs. Nothing scares the Chinese governing elite more than falling behind the US technologically. They saw the Cold War and how as Reagan said, the "Goliath of totalitarianism will be brought down by the David of the microchip", they know for a fact that technological growth is king and you need well educated citizens. That's why they're attempting the near impossible: oppressing a billion educated and middle class citizens but this time with AI, mass facial recognition, fervent nationalism, personality cult, omnipresent state control and social credit scores. They're trying to cultivate the perfect obedient citizens while holding the same human capital which allowed the US to economically and scientifically crush the USSR who had achieved it through the SDI, arms race, Reagan Doctrine and 20 years of communist stagnation in the face of a booming West. If China can achieve the perfect obedient and productive citizen they ideally won't need another Tiananmen.
At the end of the day, a nation is built on the back of its educated citizenry. Weapon systems are only as good as your engineers, scientists and businessmen. The kinds of people who live in Hong Kong but are inevitably going to leave it number perhaps upwards of 1-3 million citizens, already 250,000 have acquired passports and polling indicates that number will continue to grow as Beijing's oppression rises. However in the face of China's ambitions, the US is on the verge of triggering a second space race with Spacex and a number of other Western companies dramatically reducing launch costs and constructing the infrastructure which could have immeasurable strategic consequences decades from now. Sure the SDI was a bit of a joke even at the time with its ambitions, but Reagan was hell-bent on it and it scared the crap outta the USSR who knew the implications. Today the US missile defense system is the best in the world after 40 years of continual investment but optimised for rogue states like North Korea or potentially Iran, however if launch costs can decrease further (as they inevitably will) the Pentagon is probably going to exploit this to the maximum with more spy satellites (something which the US has a gigantic advantage in already) or even a mini SDI program or something which will scare China.
NASA is hoping to launch a manned Moon mission by 2025 (officially still 2024 but it's definitely a year afterwards at least). There is no indication the Artemis program is going to be axed, and from a strategic standpoint neither should it. Given the unprecedented private investment the program has and also the Lunar Gateway, the US inevitably will land on the Moon again within the decade, while simultaneously waging a renewed cold war with China. So what does China have to show for itself technologically? Well at the moment there are lots of things China is desperate to show off in, but nothing so far indicates its at parity with the US yet. The US has built nearly 500 fifth generation stealth multirole all-weather fighters (F-35), China has a bare handful and its likely inferior. The EU and the US have an enormous domination of the civil aviation market with Airbus and Boeing respectively, while China's Comac is minuscule in comparison with no chance of global market penetration compared to the staggering power and expertise Boeing and Airbus have. China is still 20-30 years behind the US in submarines but closing, its military has virtually no fighting experience in decades unlike the US and in space exploration China leaves a lot to be desired. Sure, they're planning and have been successful in launching rovers and probes on the Moon's surface, but so did the Soviets and the US in the mid 1960s. Their space station project is compared to Mir in the 80s, and they're hoping for a manned Moon mission within the decade but very little has surfaced in detail.
China has been trying its best to harness its human capital to the maximum extent possible, but even with the lackluster Congress the US has languished under for the better part of a decade, the US has succeeded in creating reusable rockets, cheaper batteries and landed a car sized rover on Mars with a highly complex landing process and shall repeat that in 2021 with the Perseverance Rover. Don't get me wrong, China will try to do everything it can to develop advanced technologies and with little moral constraint like how a Chinese scientist last year controversially altered the genome of an unborn child, and they'll do so out of its own regime's desperation to survive when its economic growth stagnates further. But the US is still leading by a massive margin, and despite zero intention and limited intervention by Washington policy makers this past decade, a bunch of tech wizzes across the US may have inadvertently triggered a second space race.
TL;DR: China may continue to look down upon Hong Kong with glaring contempt and despise its well educated population who had a taste of freedom, but Hong Kong's dazzling economy represents a China that might have been. Sure China's universities and scientific institutions continue to grow in strength, but it will never compete with the West on a strategic level until China stops oppressing its own citizens. Either that, or China succeeds in creating the perfect obedient and productive citizen.
This is my first ever effortpost, so I hope it's up to scratch :)
submitted by Professor-Reddit to neoliberal [link] [comments]

Valentine's Day Update Special AKA 20,000 Subs Speical AKA Dev Diary 3: The History of the Arretian Merchant Republic [from foundation to modern day] - warning 5,000 words

FEATHERS OVER ARRETIA
WORLD BUILDING
Feathers over Arretia is an indie RPG dealing with the most serious criminal elements threatening society: smol birbs. The game takes place in the fictional city of Arretia, a modern setting with some minor fantasy elements.
To read the pitch see:
https://www.reddit.com/illegallysmolbirbs/comments/k0p19n/thanksgiving_announcement_the_illegallysmolbirbs/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=illegallysmolbirbs&utm_content=t3_kexuy4
To read the first dev diary where I go into the characters you can play as see:
https://reddit.com/illegallysmolbirbs/comments/kexuy4/christmas_announcement_dev_diary_1_the_dream_team/
HISTORY
PART I
THE FOUNDING MYTHS
All great cities of the Ancient World have foundation myths, Arretia is no different. There are competing stories that claim legitimacy as the “true” foundation myth of the city. Both have considerable academic merit and the debate has continued for centuries as to which is the “true” myth. However recent excavations on the Mount of Cages, which contains some of the most ancient remains of the old part of the city, have revealed a third story in recent years that is as popular as it is fantastic.
Myth 1 – The Aristotelian Connection
334BC
Crowned King of Macedon at age 20 with the death of his father Phillip II, Alexander consolidated power on the Greek countryside, taking on Illyria, Thebes and Athens before continuing his father’s life’s work: the invasion of Persia.
In 334 BC Alexander set foot upon the shore of Asia Minor opposite the Hellespont and claimed the entirety of it’s continent with the ceremonial thrust of a spear into the ground.
His tutor and advisor Aristotle, perhaps the smartest man alive at the time, prudently informed the young conqueror with a whisper that this moment should be commemorated for posterity as generations would want to know where it was the gods themselves acquiesced to his demands for land.
Alexander’s exact response isn’t known but he broadly let Aristotle know that if it was so important, he could do it.
So a small shrine was erected at the spot where the spear lay, consecrated by a priestess of Delphi retained with the party for such events and a plaque was written in Greek and Persian telling all who could read of its history. Aristotle himself dictated the passage and etched his own mark into the bottom with hammer and chisel.
In May 334 BC, when Alexander defeated Memnon of Rhodes in The Battle of the Granicus River, the first blow against the might of Persia, Aristotle recommended a similar monument be made. Alexander was impudent and demanded the tutor just make a sign pointing to the last shrine to save time. A slip of the lip caused that sign to read “Με αυτόν τον τρόπο στην πλάκα του Αριστοτέλη” or “This way to Aristotle’s plaque.”
Some say that this mistake made its way back to the young King who decided to make sure such a mistake could never again occur, founding innumerable cities in his own name from that day forward. Ironically, playing right into Aristotle’s original ploy to get Alexander serious about building a legacy and not just pursuing glory in vanity.
Over decades, the spear was eventually stolen and the shrine looted but the plaque remained stalwart and vivid as the day it was carved, as did the signs directing people to its location.
But “Aristotle’s plaque” became shortened to “Aristotle’s [land]” and eventually was misread as Arretia in a Roman census which stuck around to the present day.
Myth 2 – The Disgraced Commander
323 BC
Even before Alexander’s retreat from India in the final year of his life, the empire he had spent years building was already in danger of crumbling.
Disloyal generals, governors and bureaucrats of the West who once groveled at his feet were no longer cowed upon his departure to lands further and further East. Threats of rebellion simmered and the empire was already being carved up by conspirators in back rooms long before Alexander ever lay upon his deathbed.
Before the Wars of the Diadochi tore this empire asunder a dozen times, one of Alexander’s most loyal allies Antigonus I who had followed him all the way from Greece having served his father Philip II had his son Antigonus II sent in secret back to his holdings in Macedon with a fortune in gold to build support for his claim to the empire once Alexander finally died without an heir.
However his return was slow and exorbitant as the young noble caroused at every city and village on the long journey from Persia and by the time he had finally reached The Hellespont, not only was much of his fortune squandered but his own party betrayed him, throwing him off of the gangway at the last second before boarding ship which sailed towards Crete. Either bad fortune or the very wrath of the gods saw it cast to the bottom of the Aegean where the gold remains undiscovered to this day.
Learning of his son’s incompetent failure, Antigonus I had his name stricken from history and rewrote his family lineage so that Demetrius I was his issue, not Antigonus II. Historians debate how much gold was lost in this event but many agree that had the trip been successful, Antigonus I might have bought-off Ptolemy long enough to keep the empire from falling to civil war.
Yet locals still recall in vivid detail the folly of Antigonus II and took to calling the area where he was betrayed as ανόητος ηλίθιος στη νερό (silly idiot in the water) which was shortened over time to ατοςιος σερό and eventually αρτηρία or Arretia today.
Myth 3 – The First Flight
440 BC
In 1989, a small excavation at the Mount of Cages began as a joint effort by the Committee of Arretian Historical Preservation (CAHP) and the Fine Arts College of Arretia (FACA) to find relics of the city’s past succeeded and may have changed history with its discovery of a plaque far more ancient than any others before it.
On this plaque in worn Copper and Jade was the following: 𒀀𒆷𒀸𒊭𒄠𒈪𒅖𒉺𒋫𒀀𒀸𒉿𒈾𒀜𒋾𒅖 (Wanattis patas Alasammis) along the faint impression of a human foot.
Tests determined the plaque to be authentic, tracing back to the middle of the 5th Century B.C.
The human foot was determined to be that of a young woman.
One enterprising youth working on a PHD in Comparative Linguistic Studies suggested that the engraving might be Luwian Swadesh, a form of ancient Cuneiform thought to be used by the Trojans.
Translated the plaque reads: “[where from] the sea [a] woman’s foot.”
Although the subject on intense debate between Arretian, Turkish and Greek scholars, it is believed by some that this spot was where Helen of Troy first stepped on land after being abducted by Prince Paris in the time immediately before the Trojan War. This theory is buoyed due to Arretia’s proximity to the ruins of Troy and soil erosion patterns suggest that the Mount of Cages was at one time a natural jetty sticking out into the sea.
Now a Professor Emeritus of the Linguistics Department of the FACA, Dr. Merlin Bruce Codlack’s book “Beneath the Mount” maintains that the old form of Trojan gave rise to the common use of the name Arretia for the area over centuries as the spoken language was invaded by Greek cognates which turned “Alsammis” and “patas” to “Arretpatas” by the time of Alexander who adopted the name simplifying it to Arretia in the process.
PART II
ANCIENT HISTORY
The meteoric ascendancy of Greece during the time of Alexander brought prosperity to Asia Minor along with immigration at rates unheard of. Due to its strategic position in a natural harbor, a small trading community sprang up in the region which grew at an accelerated pace due the influx of trade between itself, Byzantium and Rhodes.
Ancient merchants who spoke of the glory of the Colossus as it was being built in the 3rd Century BC made mention of the cheap provisions that could be had a few days sail further along the coast at Arretia which now boasted a considerable farming community lured to the area by cheap land and fertile soil.
Migrating herds of black cattle moving along transits laid by the Hittites 1,000s of years earlier became an increasingly common site in the town. Before long, the citizens had erected crude palisades and a considerable watchtower upon what would later be known as the Mount of Cages where a band of far-sighted archer mercenaries from across the Greek world stood ever vigilant, paid in turn with generous land grants and even more gracious payment than could be found anywhere else in the Mediterranean.
PART III
PRE-ROMAN OCCUPATION
Centuries of good fortune, prosperity and mild weather turned the small town into a bustling city by the time of Rome. Generations of increasingly confident watchmen and prudent city defense planning had turned the once wooden tower into a stone monolith which through the clever use of mirrors and a coal fire was able to light the sea for miles around at night while lenses developed by Archimedes himself at Syracuse were re-engineered to make Arretian scouts unrivaled marksmen capable of sighting fleets days before they would normally be spotted – in no small part egged on by a merchant class of considerable power which gambled heavily and recklessly with commodity speculation. A common phrase at the time was “no grain ship can leave Alexandria for Rome without some Arretian knowing about it, selling and trading its cargo before the sails are even unfurled.”
All of these marvels paled in comparison to Rhodes to the South and Arretians prided themselves on being the underdog rival, resulting in a hundred fortunes lost beneath the soaring arm of the Colossus won back under Arretia’s stone monolith.
Despite most mapmakers placing Arretia firmly within the bounds of the territories of the Seleucid Empire, the only tax ever paid to that crumbling backwater was a single pure silver slug approximately 10 grams in weight paid annually by one of the many merchant families via courier addressed directly to the King of the Seleucids. When this tradition first started with the founding of the city during the days of Alexander, such a payment was a king’s ransom but over time became so much of a pittance that the families boasted decades of “taxes” were pre-paid in their basement next to the cheap wine and how droll it all seemed that some distant king truly needed the money.
In 217 BC, the Selucid King Antiochus III the Great in an attempt to revive the dying empire made war on Egypt and lost at the Battle of Raphia. Though bloodied, the king engaged in a restructuring of his lands which was mostly focused on quelling rebellions and consolidating power in the East while giving up on retaking Syria for the time being. In service to these efforts, he raised taxes and Arretia found itself the subject of an event that has been colloquially known as The Shaming of The King.
The story goes that the Seleucid King’s tax collector arrived in Arretia to find its walls (once wooden now solid stone) manned with troops in full battle regalia and the gate locked. However the side gate (known as the Eye of the Sling) was opened just enough that he might crawl through it and a small banner made of finest silk confirmed that was expected of him saying “για τους φτωχούς (for the poor)” with an arrow pointing down at it. The tax collector humbly crawled down into the gate finding it covered in animal muck and mud along the bottom. When he crossed the threshold the patriarchs of the merchant families stood proud and tall alongside strongboxes arrayed before him. When the tax collector stood up, covered in filth, the men tipped the boxes over, showering his feet in silver coins a hundred deep which sank quickly into the mud before walking silently back to their estates without a word. Tradition states that the tax collector spent days sifting through the muck as it hardened, collecting a small fortune before realizing he had no possible way to carry it back to his King in the East. Legend states that he stole a muck-rakers cart and escaped through the gate which had been left open in the meantime with a pile of silver and dung half a man high. He was eventually able to find passage back in less humiliating fashion but the message was clear: Arretia thought King Antiochus III to be a common beggar, no more.
PART IV
ROMAN INVOLVEMENT
The Vote
By the 1st Century BC Rome’s ascendancy was all but assured. While Carthage remained a valuable trade partner, its destruction in the Third Punic War half a century earlier made even the richest houses of Arretia quake with fear. In 145 BC, exactly one year after her strongest ally was burnt to the ground and her fields salted the great houses organized a plebiscite.
All adult male citizens and freemen or women who owned property were allowed to vote. Voting occurred over a three week period allowing even the most disparate of farmers or merchants out at sea an opportunity to vote.
The vote was simple: shall Arretia resist Rome, yay or nay? Nay votes were symbolized by a feather from a rooster, chosen at random in the market stalls from vendors as part of a lot system while the yay votes came from hens along similar lines. Over three weeks it is said there was not a single unplucked chicken in Anatolia. On the final day it was found that the ‘nays’ had won by a landslide and the great houses debated how best to interpret this matter.
The three richest houses proclaimed they would sign a treaty of friendship with Rome, offering them a similar deal to that offered to the now defunct Seleucid Empire.
Over the Winter a grand ceremony was planned and preparations made for the envoy.
The Landing
Two great ships were built, The Romulus of Apollo and The Remus of Februus, adorned in gold and silver respectively. Carried by sails of silk, rowed by the tallest slaves of Parthia, full of exotic spices from the Far East, captained by men who claimed to have reached the Southern-most Tip of Africa and full of a ransom fit for any three emperors combined, along with a single daughter of each great home trained in Latin, the fleet anchored off Rome’s Portus artificial harbor off the north bank of the Tiber on April 5th, 144 BC on the dawn of the Festival of Fortuna Publica, or the "luck of the people."
The young women approached the senate and handed forth reams of purple vellum explaining the offer of Arretia to the upstart hegemon. Lucius Aurelius Cotta, Counsul a the time and elected during the Fortuna Publica festival in 154 BC coincidentally, accepted the terms: Arretia would provide logistical support, technical expertise and ships to the Roman Navy 10 talents of silver annually paid to the Roman Senate Build a new Pantheon in Arretia for the Roman Gods Rome would exempt her citizens of any taxes or drafts Rome would become her protectorate should any enemies declare war on the merchant republic
The Byzantine Period
While Rome seemed unstoppable, Arretia was a haven of intellectual involvement and oligarchy as the richest men and women of the known world demanded citizenship, if only to avoid the harsh taxation of Rome at home. Soon there was a row of homes, all empty, where dozens of Arretian “citizens” “lived” but even the most fastidious bureaucrat in Italy was hopelessly lost in the ocean of paperwork Arretian civil servants produced daily.
So it was that when Constantine the Great decreed that Constantinople would be the new Capitol of the Roman Empire, the whole of Arretia held its breath. Along with his tax reform and re-issuance of the currency (debasing it with cheaper metals and forcing all Roman citizens to pay in coin for government fees and taxes), Constantine demanded Arretia triple their existing tribute until Constantinople was finished with construction of the Hagia Sophia (Megale Ekklesia or Big Church) Arretian merchants, craftsmen, builders, surveyors and brick layers descended upon the new city like a flock seagulls upon an uncovered market stall, determined to have it finished in record time.
Legend has it that for every brick laid in Constantinople, another was laid in Arretia. The old Pantheon was retrofitted behind closed gates and under grand tents. On February 15th, 360 AD during the reign of the emperor Constantius II when The Hagia Sophia was concentrated and opened to the public. While The Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem had more artifacts on display, The Hagia Sophia held the seat of the Ecumenical Patriarch and The Pantheon still had the largest dome in the world, The Ecclesiae Baptismate (Church of the Baptism) contained by some estimates nearly 40% of all pieces of the True Cross to exist in the world at the time, ironically making the Cross replica itself nearly 74 feet tall.
The Plague
The Plague of Justinian 541 AD killed untold millions throughout the world, originating in either Asia or Africa, the first documented reports of its involvement according to Byzantine source Procopius was in Egypt’s port of Pelusium.
The Arretians tell a different story.
In 540 AD a sailor from the Far East was found floating in the Indian Ocean 100 miles off the coast of Axum by an unknown Arretian vessel. Its captain recorded in stone tablet (as all wood and papers had dissolved in the salt water) this message. He then scuttled the vessel to the bottom of the sea to protect the world as best he could and forestall the inevitable coming devastation:
The [man] is turning black before our eyes as though some fire burns from within his groin and [armpits]. The spits the most vile [substances] and convulses in the night. I notice [on myself] the same growing painful lumps and it is my duty to stop this [plague] before my crew are infected. May God have mercy on [us]. 
Spies and merchants (if there ever was truly a distinction to the Arretians) reported on rumors in Pelusium of a sickness that spread like locusts.
The 15 Great Houses of Arretia held an emergency meeting that very night, un-customarially sharing all possible information on the sickness and concluded in a matter of hours that the city must survive, no matter the costs.
In the most Arretian way possible a 2 day state of emergency was declared. Any and all food stores were seized, any and all ship traffic in the harbor was seized, the bowels of all ships emptied while furious captains were silenced with bags of silver too large to carry by any one pack animal, and sent back to their port of call without explanation.
The countryside was picked clean and all foreign citizens warned to not return to the city upon pain of death. The walls were redoubled with temporary wooden facades, the gates sealed shut with leaded locks for which no key was made. From the highest aviaries to the lowest jetties, not an inch of the city went upturned. Every fishing boat was impressed and triple staffed for back-to-back shifts until the sea around Arretia was scraped clean of all marine life.
On the last night, all boats were returned to the harbor where they were dismantled, along with the harbor itself while the stone edifices of the great houses and mansions of the typically unoccupied but ostentatious ‘Roman Quarter’ were thrown into the harbor creating a temporary breakwater which was reinforced with pitch and tar until water sealed and a great fire set ablaze on the shore. Boiling water in so great a quantity bathed the city in salt, collected from windows, walls and the ground itself to preserve every scrap of meat and fish possible.
An especially hardy species of mushroom from far off Gaul of the Grooty Strain (brought over by some trader years earlier) was discovered growing underneath a porch and at once a massive team of laborers set to work retrofitting every basement, vault and catacomb into nurseries for the tiny gray intrusive species.
On the dawn of the third day Arretia had gone from a glittering example of the height of civility into a militarized, insular micro-nation where the rich and poor alike bore the filth of manual labor and the treasures of a dozen generations lay in the hands of foreign nations that had no idea why they had reversed centuries of trade policy on a whim.
Only Justinian’s spies had even a clue and they warned him that the Empire of Rome itself might do the same, a premise shouted down in the Senate a handful of times until bodies started piling up in the street, far too late to matter.
Accurate records are not possible but it is said Arretia lost a tenth of her population to starvation, rioting and disease. But not one single death from plague was ever noted.
By the time the Black Plague entered the world, Arretia had learned from the mistakes of the past and had years worth of imperishable stocked away in hidden caves with secondary and even third basements covered in edible plants that thrived in the dank, lightless environment supplying a grateful populous who still shared stories of the darkest time in her history. The Venetians claim to have invented the Quarantine but in fact, Arretia had perfected the practice while Venice was still flotsam floating in the Adriatic Sea.
PART V – THE OTTOMANS
Almost 500 years of constant war, against the Huns, Cumans, Samaritans, Sassanids, Seljuks and others on just her Eastern borders, the Byzantine Empire strained at the edges and much of Asia Minor was lost to the Turks. In 1071AD a number of very forward-thinking members of the Great Houses of Arretia sent spies along with the Roman Emperor Romanos IV Diogenes in his campaign to once again bring all of Anatolia under Roman rule. At the Battle of Manzikert on August 26, 1071AD two very important events took place:
1. The Emperor himself was captured and would be paraded throughout the Seljuk Empire in chains before ransomed at a price even the Arretians found exorbitant 2. The Arretians returned upon the fastest horses money could buy from dubious mercenary Pechenegs in the middle of the night still drunk on the glory of victory 
The Great Houses were divided on whether or not to prop up an Empire that seemed on the brink of collapse who they had sunk mountains of gold and silver into in the hope that they could once again establish themselves in the hinterlands, whether they should take advantage of the weakness of Rome to declare independence and even take Constantinople while it remained unguarded by her legions or bend knee to the Turks. The matter was put to vote, however in order to maintain perfect secrecy only members of the ruling families were able to participate, those that were in the city at the time that is. By a margin of exactly 1 vote which came from what would later be described as “the desiccated corpse of a Pater familias dug up from a catacomb, adorned in sweet perfumes and operated by a series of pulleys and bellows,” Arretia switched sides.
Some say The Cross in The Ecclesiae Baptismate which had towered over pilgrims for hundreds of years was torn down that morning while other historians maintain it was buried under a nearby hill until such time as the city could be returned to its old faith safely. Whatever the case, the building was converted to a Grand Mosque and a procession left a few days later to pay homage to their new suzerain in Isfahan.
A cohort of 400 of the strongest boys Arretia had to offer arrived at the head of the caravan, to comprise the a contingent of troops that over time would come to be the Elite Janissary of the Ottoman Empire. With them came oxen laden with ten years worth of tribute in gold, and the plans for a massive highway to be built along the route to facilitate trade between the new allies.
Sultan Alp Arslan’s Grand Viser accepted the terms as dictated by the Arretians after hardly a glance at the treaty, so great was his desire to impress such a fabulously wealthy nation that came crawling on its knees without the rattle of a saber, they were essentially the same as offered the Romans before him and the Ottoman Fleet quadrupled in size with the flourish of a quill upon purple parchment.
The Arrentians, with the exception of those cohorts they sent every year and what few sailors they could not procure from elsewhere, remained circumspect of their new Ottoman masters and it is often said that even the Imam in the Grand Mosque still wore a cross under his robes. Though coffeehouses, hookah dens and other Near Eastern proprietors were already common in the city, a new flood of Turkish shops came and went as they realized that the Arretians were terribly nepotistic in their shopping patterns and the Great Houses were willing to sell storefronts with one hand while making sure no suppliers or contracts would ever make it through customs with the other. While the flag above the city changed shape and color, its people still walked through Roman style bathhouses and drank wine freely in the plazas and museums.
Over the centuries during the Siege of Malta in 1429 AD, Siege of Rhodes 1522 AD, the Second Siege of Malta in 1565 AD, and Constantinople itself in 1203 AD, 1204 AD, 1235 AD, 1236 AD, 1376 AD , 1391AD, 1394-1402AD, 1411AD, 1422 AD and finally 1453 AD, it is said the families of Arretia wept as openly as their once-bretherin Romans. There stands a plaque in the central plaza listing the name of every Arretian who died in those sieges, to the puzzlement of modern historians it seems that either those commissioning the plaque were unconcerned with accuracy or almost 10% of those three cities were comprised of Arretians. DNA testing of survivors is inconclusive but ongoing.
PART VI – MODERN HISTORY
The Ottoman Empire waned with time, eventually becoming the “Sick Man of Europe” and the West conspired for decades over who would get Arretia for their own like squabbling children looking at the will of a man on life support.
Following the conclusion of WW1 and the imposition of the Treaty of Sèvres on August 10th, 1920 Arretia was nominally under Italian rule for the first time in 100s of years.
In a drunken, semi-coherent speech in April 1923, ‘Il Duce’ Benito Mussolini (having recently succeeded in a coup the year previous and setting about dissolving any political opposition) proclaimed to an audience of fellow blackshirts that “Direct rule from Rome would begin again in Arretia by morning!”
The following morning Moussolini awoke with a hangover and a single feather on his pillow beside him. Thinking nothing of it, as he was used to errant feathers poking out of his pillow from time to time, he simply re-fluffed his own pillow to find it strangely heavy and lumpy.
Opening the case, he found it stuffed full of Italian Lire, exactly ₤ 2,250. The same amount he had mailed to his Mistress for rent that month. In a rush he grabbed a phone and had the operator connect him with her, who answered very surprised as she pointed out he himself had paid her rent via check and spent the night with her before leaving in the very early morning.
It took hours for his bank to confirm the check was genuine and his signature authentic. Moussolini called for Achille Starace, the Press Secretary of the Office of the Presidency of the Council and his brother Arnaldo Mussolini, the editor of the state-occupied Fascist newspaper Il Popolo, to shred any and all documentation of his speech the night before.
In a single night, Italian dreams of returning Arretia to its dominion vanished.
Rumor has it that Carmine Coppola heard the story from a relative who was there that night for the speech and told an impressionable Francis Ford Coppola about it in his childhood, sparking the famous horse’s head scene in 1972’s The Godfather. The Italian government has neither confirmed nor denied the connection.
Arretian pseudo-independence was celebrated by thousands of sailors between 1940 and 1943 who’s lives were protected by their ‘Eagle-eyed guides’ spotting submarines at the last second, steering unarmed convoys away from sea mines or even bad weather long range radar couldn’t pick up. During the Battle of Britain, those same guides filled in gaps left by long-range spotter balloons and rode along RAF Spitfires and P-51s when their own spotters, gunners and even pilots were too tired, wounded or shaken to keep the skies friendly.
Though not formally invited to the Yalta Conference in February, 1945, Arretian diplomats helped steer Marshall Plan funding for years, were instrumental in negotiations for the Treaty of Paris in 1951, creating the European Coal and Steel Community, were the first non-continental member of the EU in 1973, wrote almost half of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, kept the Common Currency negotiations from falling apart in 1999, bought half of all Greek Debt during the European Financial Crisis of 2008 and ironically now own half of all proven European Oil Reserves due to meddling in Brexit Negotiations just two years ago, buying North Sea drilling rights for pence on the Euro. While the EU is ruled from Brussels, most politicians would concede that most legislation is written in Arretia using Arretian ink by Arretian claws and hands alike.
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