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Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
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Crazy

A Battle for Control of WallStreetBets May Have Broken Out Brandon Kochkodin Thu, February 4, 2021, 1:50 PM·4 min read
GME -42.11%
4 / 4 A Battle for Control of WallStreetBets May Have Broken Out (Bloomberg) -- A fight appears to be brewing on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, and it’s not over which stock is the next GameStop Corp.
Just weeks after the site was used to galvanize an epic short squeeze in shares of the video-game retailer, forcing the real Wall Street to reckon with the power of a united front of traders, signs of dissent are cropping up around the 8.5 million-member stock message board.
To say the least, it’s an unconventional battlefield, one where online abstractions stand in for humans, identity is murky and confirmation often impossible. At the same time, the drama has become difficult for Wall Street to ignore. Maneuvering in the forum, by people whose only real-world manifestation is an internet screen name, has been capable of moving tens of billions of dollars of stock.
While online skirmishes are obviously not uncommon, any sign cohesion is breaking down among WallStreetBets’ loose cohort of coordinating presences might presage a weakening in its force in the market. And as recent weeks have shown, that would be news for day-traders and investors.
Read More: SEC Hunts for Fraud in Social-Media Posts Hyping GameStop
First, some definitions. WallStreetBets is a quasi-independent message board hosted by Reddit, the site of the crowd-sourced short-squeeze in GameStop that unwound this week. While anyone who registers can ostensibly post there, some members are more equal than others: users known as moderators are the site’s volunteer army of gatekeepers. They monitor, and sometimes delete, messages -- for instance if the post is spam or violates rules against harassment or penny stock promotion.
In the last 24 hours, active moderators, those who were enforcing the rules as GameStop mania swept the site, say they have had their privileges revoked.
Who anyone is on WSB -- that is, what living person is behind a post -- is often unknown, meaning descriptions of what goes on there are mostly just chronicles of the interaction of screen names on a website. While many moderators have been active long enough to establish a kind of personhood via their messages, it’s never completely clear who is who. The risk of misrepresentation and hacking is ever-present.
The source of the current tension, according to posts purporting to be by the now former moderators, is money -- specifically, the potential to cash in as media interest swirls around the forum. WallStreetBets’ founder, Jaime Rogozinski, who was kicked off the forum last year, sold the rights to his life story for a “low six figure” payment to Brett Ratner’s RatPac Entertainment earlier this week, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Rogozinski didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
According to a post by WSB moderator ZJZ, a group of long-time -- and long inactive -- moderators had taken back policing privileges over the forum in an effort to profit from the site.
“We’ve been taken hostage by the top mods,” ZJZ wrote. “They left for years and came back when they smelled money.”
ZJZ’s post was deleted from WallStreetBets, but reposted under the headline “Stop the Steal #FREEWSB” on a different Reddit message board, a subreddit known as wallstreetbetstest, where many long time members have been gathering.
Story continues
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Crazy

A Battle for Control of WallStreetBets May Have Broken Out Brandon Kochkodin Thu, February 4, 2021, 1:50 PM·4 min read
GME -42.11%
4 / 4 A Battle for Control of WallStreetBets May Have Broken Out (Bloomberg) -- A fight appears to be brewing on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, and it’s not over which stock is the next GameStop Corp.
Just weeks after the site was used to galvanize an epic short squeeze in shares of the video-game retailer, forcing the real Wall Street to reckon with the power of a united front of traders, signs of dissent are cropping up around the 8.5 million-member stock message board.
To say the least, it’s an unconventional battlefield, one where online abstractions stand in for humans, identity is murky and confirmation often impossible. At the same time, the drama has become difficult for Wall Street to ignore. Maneuvering in the forum, by people whose only real-world manifestation is an internet screen name, has been capable of moving tens of billions of dollars of stock.
While online skirmishes are obviously not uncommon, any sign cohesion is breaking down among WallStreetBets’ loose cohort of coordinating presences might presage a weakening in its force in the market. And as recent weeks have shown, that would be news for day-traders and investors.
Read More: SEC Hunts for Fraud in Social-Media Posts Hyping GameStop
First, some definitions. WallStreetBets is a quasi-independent message board hosted by Reddit, the site of the crowd-sourced short-squeeze in GameStop that unwound this week. While anyone who registers can ostensibly post there, some members are more equal than others: users known as moderators are the site’s volunteer army of gatekeepers. They monitor, and sometimes delete, messages -- for instance if the post is spam or violates rules against harassment or penny stock promotion.
In the last 24 hours, active moderators, those who were enforcing the rules as GameStop mania swept the site, say they have had their privileges revoked.
Who anyone is on WSB -- that is, what living person is behind a post -- is often unknown, meaning descriptions of what goes on there are mostly just chronicles of the interaction of screen names on a website. While many moderators have been active long enough to establish a kind of personhood via their messages, it’s never completely clear who is who. The risk of misrepresentation and hacking is ever-present.
The source of the current tension, according to posts purporting to be by the now former moderators, is money -- specifically, the potential to cash in as media interest swirls around the forum. WallStreetBets’ founder, Jaime Rogozinski, who was kicked off the forum last year, sold the rights to his life story for a “low six figure” payment to Brett Ratner’s RatPac Entertainment earlier this week, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Rogozinski didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
According to a post by WSB moderator ZJZ, a group of long-time -- and long inactive -- moderators had taken back policing privileges over the forum in an effort to profit from the site.
“We’ve been taken hostage by the top mods,” ZJZ wrote. “They left for years and came back when they smelled money.”
ZJZ’s post was deleted from WallStreetBets, but reposted under the headline “Stop the Steal #FREEWSB” on a different Reddit message board, a subreddit known as wallstreetbetstest, where many long time members have been gathering.
Story continues
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16h ago Motley Fool Here's Why The RealReal Stock Spiked 21% Higher in January
2d ago Investor's Business Daily Snap Fourth-Quarter Results Beat Estimates But Outlook Falls Short
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12h ago The Conversation Wall Street isn't just a casino where traders can bet on GameStop and other stocks – it's essential to keeping capitalism from crashing
17h ago MORE FROMBLOOMBERG Bloomberg Kuaishou Nearly Triples In Biggest Technology IPO Since Uber
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47m ago Bloomberg U.K. to Bring in Mandatory Quarantine for Travelers From Feb. 15
1h ago Bloomberg Asian Stocks Rise After U.S. Record; Bonds Steady: Markets Wrap
1h ago
Home Watchlists My Portfolio Screeners Premium Markets News Personal Finance Videos Industries Tech Contact Us Terms (Updated) Help Share your feedback Privacy (Updated) Do Not Sell My Personal Information About Us About Our Ads twitter facebook instagram youtube linkedin © 2021 Verizon Media. All rights reserved.
submitted by XpLiCiT-sOOn-7 to u/XpLiCiT-sOOn-7 [link] [comments]

Crazy

A Battle for Control of WallStreetBets May Have Broken Out Brandon Kochkodin Thu, February 4, 2021, 1:50 PM·4 min read
GME -42.11%
4 / 4 A Battle for Control of WallStreetBets May Have Broken Out (Bloomberg) -- A fight appears to be brewing on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, and it’s not over which stock is the next GameStop Corp.
Just weeks after the site was used to galvanize an epic short squeeze in shares of the video-game retailer, forcing the real Wall Street to reckon with the power of a united front of traders, signs of dissent are cropping up around the 8.5 million-member stock message board.
To say the least, it’s an unconventional battlefield, one where online abstractions stand in for humans, identity is murky and confirmation often impossible. At the same time, the drama has become difficult for Wall Street to ignore. Maneuvering in the forum, by people whose only real-world manifestation is an internet screen name, has been capable of moving tens of billions of dollars of stock.
While online skirmishes are obviously not uncommon, any sign cohesion is breaking down among WallStreetBets’ loose cohort of coordinating presences might presage a weakening in its force in the market. And as recent weeks have shown, that would be news for day-traders and investors.
Read More: SEC Hunts for Fraud in Social-Media Posts Hyping GameStop
First, some definitions. WallStreetBets is a quasi-independent message board hosted by Reddit, the site of the crowd-sourced short-squeeze in GameStop that unwound this week. While anyone who registers can ostensibly post there, some members are more equal than others: users known as moderators are the site’s volunteer army of gatekeepers. They monitor, and sometimes delete, messages -- for instance if the post is spam or violates rules against harassment or penny stock promotion.
In the last 24 hours, active moderators, those who were enforcing the rules as GameStop mania swept the site, say they have had their privileges revoked.
Who anyone is on WSB -- that is, what living person is behind a post -- is often unknown, meaning descriptions of what goes on there are mostly just chronicles of the interaction of screen names on a website. While many moderators have been active long enough to establish a kind of personhood via their messages, it’s never completely clear who is who. The risk of misrepresentation and hacking is ever-present.
The source of the current tension, according to posts purporting to be by the now former moderators, is money -- specifically, the potential to cash in as media interest swirls around the forum. WallStreetBets’ founder, Jaime Rogozinski, who was kicked off the forum last year, sold the rights to his life story for a “low six figure” payment to Brett Ratner’s RatPac Entertainment earlier this week, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Rogozinski didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
According to a post by WSB moderator ZJZ, a group of long-time -- and long inactive -- moderators had taken back policing privileges over the forum in an effort to profit from the site.
“We’ve been taken hostage by the top mods,” ZJZ wrote. “They left for years and came back when they smelled money.”
ZJZ’s post was deleted from WallStreetBets, but reposted under the headline “Stop the Steal #FREEWSB” on a different Reddit message board, a subreddit known as wallstreetbetstest, where many long time members have been gathering.
Story continues
RELATED STORIES Motley Fool Forget GameStop, These 3 Tech Stocks Are Better Buys Right Now
2d ago Bloomberg Reddit’s Power to Push Stocks Down Is the Next Worry for Traders
16h ago Motley Fool If You Try to Game the Stock Market, You're Going to Get Played
19h ago CBSTV Videos Quarantinewhile... Dueling GameStop Movies Will Compete To Tell The Story Of Wall Street's Wild Ride
2d ago Yahoo Finance Short-seller Carson Block: 'Markets are broken. They were broken before GameStop'
16h ago Motley Fool Here's Why The RealReal Stock Spiked 21% Higher in January
2d ago Investor's Business Daily Snap Fourth-Quarter Results Beat Estimates But Outlook Falls Short
8h ago Motley Fool Why AMC Entertainment Stock Was Falling Again Today
12h ago The Conversation Wall Street isn't just a casino where traders can bet on GameStop and other stocks – it's essential to keeping capitalism from crashing
17h ago MORE FROMBLOOMBERG Bloomberg Kuaishou Nearly Triples In Biggest Technology IPO Since Uber
30m ago Bloomberg India to Get Most Covax Shots; AMLO Touts Health: Virus Update
47m ago Bloomberg U.K. to Bring in Mandatory Quarantine for Travelers From Feb. 15
1h ago Bloomberg Asian Stocks Rise After U.S. Record; Bonds Steady: Markets Wrap
1h ago
Home Watchlists My Portfolio Screeners Premium Markets News Personal Finance Videos Industries Tech Contact Us Terms (Updated) Help Share your feedback Privacy (Updated) Do Not Sell My Personal Information About Us About Our Ads twitter facebook instagram youtube linkedin © 2021 Verizon Media. All rights reserved.
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Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?

The best laid PLANs of mice and men often go awry.

Welcome back to another effortpost by me generally on the developing arms race in East Asia, this time covering the People's Liberation Army Navy, hereafter referred to as the "PLAN", and its massive growth... and... mostly, well, its massive growth. What that means is mostly covered in other posts about how other countries are responding to it. The why is a bit difficult because, well, China is not well known for open debate, or open anything, really, which will turn up repeatedly.

  1. What you [might] need to know about South Korea's ludicrous arms buildup
  2. We shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches.... uh, what do we do after that again?: The Perilous Defensive Position of Taiwan
  3. "You've hit another cargo ship? The Problems with the US Navy: Not all of them begin with "Seven" and end with "th Fleet"."
  4. Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?
  5. Biden's New START and modern nuclear war
  6. First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
  7. Boned: Problems in the US Air [and space!] Force
  8. --Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
  9. --Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
  10. --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
  11. --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
  12. Conclusion?

Glossary:
PLA = People's Liberation Army = the armed forces of the People's Republic of China, or China
PLAN = People's Liberation Army Navy = the naval forces of the PLA
PLANAF = People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force = the air force of the navy of the PLA
Ashm = Anti-ship missile, cruise missile unless specifically described as otherwise--there's only one anti-ship ballistic missile in existence and its efficacy and whether or not it functions is questionable
CIWS = close-in weapons system, like the Phalanx gun or Goalkeeper
VLS = vertical launch system for missiles
AEGIS = Aegis Combat System if described specifically in that context, a US naval warfare system, but we'll usually be talking about "Chinese AEGIS", which is a nomiker used by the Chinese media in particular comparing the Type 346 radar to the AN-SPY family, with which it shares numerous technical characteristics--but how comparable the "Chinese AEGIS" system is to what the US uses is a complete unknown.
SAM = Surface-to-air missile, in this case usually a S-300 derivative
First Island Chain = The islands, stretching from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, which keep China inside its littoral seas much as the GIUK [Greenland-Iceland-UK] gap has kept various continental powers out of the Atlantic.


Some PLAN equipment you might see described--the nomenclature is confusing and a relic of the cultural revolution, and as a result China now has more Types than the British.
Type 003 = China's new conventionally powered supercarriers, currently under construction
Type 002 = China's first truly "operational" carrier
Type 001 = China's first carrier, built on a Soviet hull purchased from Ukraine ostensibly to make a floating casino
Type 055 = Guided-missile cruiser, though generally called a destroyer it's probably more descriptively labeled a cruiser
Type 052D = Guided-missile destroyer using "Chinese AEGIS"
Type 052/051B/052B/052C = the gradual progression of evolving Chinese naval tech, largely built as practice/demo ships like the Type 001. Some of the earlier ones are steam-powered but by the Type 052C you have something almost as advanced as the Type 052D, albeit with turbine problems
Type 054A = the standard modern frigate of the PLAN
Type 053[anything] = old PLAN frigates
Type 096 = China's newest SSBN class, under construction
Type 094 = China's first functional SSBN class, very noisy
Type 092 = China's first "SSBN", believed to have never left port with an actual nuke on board
Type 095 = China's newest SSN class, under construction
Type 093 = China's current SSN class, noisy
Type 091 = China's first SSN class, dumb dumb dumb and is at a 1950s tech level
Type 039[A] = China's new SSK class
Kilo = China's older SSK class, imported from Russia
Sovremenny = China's first capable anti-air destroyers, imported from Russia


1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe

The last time we've seen something like this was in the late 19th century. After the First World War shipbuilding was restricted by the landmark Washington Naval Treaty, one of the first great arms control treaties, and during the Cold War the Soviet Union never really had any hopes of surpassing American naval power. China, however, seems intent on replacing the US as the world's dominant naval power, or at least building a force that can stop the US Navy, even combined with the forces of Japan and other regional allies.

The nations in question, of course, in the last naval arms race, were the United Kingdom and a newly-unified Germany. Germany never reached the level of the UK, but seriously threatened it. Previously the UK had maintained a policy of having more ships than the next two largest fleets combined, but this was no longer possible, and the UK legitimately was fearful for its naval supremacy. It didn't last too long in the end--under a decade--and a resumption was foiled by first a world war and then the Washington Naval Treaty. The impact of the arms race, though, was massive. It set Germany and the UK at odds with each other, it resulted in a general buildup of warships pretty much everywhere [South America was, believe it or not, one of the biggest offenders there], established Germany for a time as the world's second naval power, having eclipsed both France and Russia and turning a small coastal defense navy into something that was able to defeat the Royal Navy itself, though never comprehensively enough to change the course of the first world war.

China dwells in a much different situation than Germany did at the turn of the last century, so we can only extend the analogy so far--substituting in Japan for the UK, India for Russia, and so on is possible but not, in my view, educational. However, we can see many of the same elements playing in here. China seems intent on replacing the US as a dominant power, or at least as regional hegemon--the ancient tributary system seems to lie fairly heavily on Chinese minds--and in order to do that, it must be able to have some degree of power projection and the capability to deny the US Navy access to areas within the first island chain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful that quest will be. Much as with the dreadnought battleships, I wouldn't be surprised if we never actually do find out if most of the shiny naval toys people have built actually work. But their mere existence shows the mutual hostility developing in the region and demonstrates the size of the Chinese threat.

Another lesson learned here is that China, like Germany, may not develop a naval force capable of defeating the US comprehensively, but only partially, and that one of the powers--in this case, China--might be pressured to strike first before the US Navy can close the gap. That ~2030 gap I talked about in my last post is, I think, an especially vulnerable point, because China may look at a degraded, but rejuvenating US Navy, then at their own capable forces, and decide to strike then in Taiwan and the South China Sea, only to back down when the US Navy again eclipses them. Whether or not that will happen, we will see--but I find it a very dangerous and perhaps likely possibility.

2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago

The PLAN has undergone an absolutely stunning evolution in the past two decades. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis the US could intimidate China with a pair of aircraft carrier strike groups and China could do pretty much nothing about it. Now the US is afraid of sending anything more than a destroyer through the strait.

Twenty years ago, the PLAN was a bit of a joke. Even Taiwan figured it could hold the seas against the PLAN. It consisted of a few tens of outdated coastal-defense frigates, some Soviet-era diesel-electric subs, and a large number of unsophisticated missile craft. The pride of the Chinese fleet were a handful of destroyers assembled using cobbled-together Western technology--copied French missiles, American gas turbines, the lot. According to American accounts at the time, the instructions for the equipment hadn't even been translated. The most advanced ship in the fleet used steampower. There were nuclear submarines, but of 1950s quality. Of particular note was the fact that the Chinese fleet had no area air defense capabilities--their premier surface-to-air-missile was an unlicensed knockoff of the French Crotale, and couldn't shoot anything outside of visual range, at high altitudes, or really doing anything more sophisticated than trying to kill their ships with low-altitude dumb bombing runs.

In the past twenty years, however, the PLAN has, much like the German Navy towards the end of the 19th century, gone from an afterthought to the world's second most powerful force. It began, as modern China's military capabilities almost all began, with the looting of the former Soviet Union for naval technology. While Soviet naval tech was generally lacking, it was much better than anything else China could get its hands on after the arms embargo placed on it in the 1990s by the US and Europe in response to Tienanmen and the end of the Cold War. China bought Soviet diesel submarines, Soviet air-defense destroyers, and Soviet aircraft carriers, which it promptly left lying around [and turned one of them into a theme park]. This was combined with copies of various pieces of Western, mostly European, technology for everything from sonars to surface-to-air missiles. China then began developing its first modern indigenous surface combatants, the Type 052C, but there were still problems. The engines were Ukrainian and had reliability trouble, the gun jammed, there was no VLS.

It is really in the last ten years that things have begun to move extremely quickly, and even only in the latter portion of the decade. In 2012 the Type 001 Liaoning entered service, and although it remains more of a training ship than an operational vessel, and is held back by a poor carrier aircraft, the mere fact that China "built" a carrier was a surprise to many. In 2014 the first Type 052D destroyer came online. It had learned the lessons from the Type 052C, and in just the last six years at least ten have entered service, with a class size of about 23 expected. This rapid expansion is what has frightened competing navies the most--in a little over a decade, the PLAN is constructing more destroyers than the British, French, and Australian navies have in service combined. It is also building the Type 055, which has generally been called a "destroyer" despite being more aptly described as a cruiser in line with the Ticonderoga-class. China has also built 30 modern frigates in the past decade, which has also swelled its numbers, along with numerous smaller corvettes, submarines, and so on.

This is why the PLAN has become such an object of concern. While it cannot challenge the US Navy yet, at least outside its littoral zones, the decline of the USN and rapid expansion of the PLAN means that it is a serious threat. And the speed at which it has developed has made many fearful. As recently as 2010, the idea of China operating an aircraft carrier or modern destroyers seemed distant, possibly preposterous. Now China speaks openly of having a six-carrier fleet in the 2030s, although, as with many of China's plans to operate full US-replicated tech and doctrine, these may have somewhat caved to realism. China is mighty, but it has already done the easy part--the last part is much harder, in economics and in military matters. Building the software, the institutional knowledge, the hardware to compete with the US Navy will prove difficult.

3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines

Submarines are one of the PLAN's weak spots, particularly nuclear submarines. China is, however, making some fairly rapid advances in this area.

Their nuclear submarine program has been considered a bit of a joke for some time. In the late 1950s when all the cool kids great powers were getting nuclear submarines, China decided [or at least Mao did] that China needed nuclear submarines too. About 16 years later, the product of this effort finally emerged as the Type 091 submarine. Based on 1950s technology, with poor radiation shielding and basically nothing done in the name of noise reduction, and not even a teardrop hull, the Type 091 was probably more of a threat to the sailors who were on it than anyone else, except maybe the two Tench-class submarines that Taiwan operates, which use 1940s technology and are the world's longest-serving submarines, though they're mostly used for training nowadays. Even then, my money would be on the Tench despite the upgrades the PLAN has made to the Type 091. There's only so much you can do to put lipstick on a pig.

China also produced an SSBN, the Type 092, which was probably the only submarine more useless than the Type 091. About the only useful thing it did for the PLAN was that it served as a test platform for SLBM launches. Reports suggest that the Type 092 is the noisiest SSBN ever made, and is thought to have only ever undertaken a single patrol. It stayed at port for so long that it was thought to have sunk in an accident. And the experience turned the PLAN off from building SSBNs for over twenty years, until the Type 094 came online in 2007.

More recent submarines are growing in capability, though. The Type 094 is not the noisiest SSBN ever made, and may not even be the noisiest in current service--that honor going to the Delta III operated by the Russian Navy, which uses 1970s technology, and, which, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, is about as noisy as the Type 094. The Type 093 is also moderately capable--it actually functions and can fire anti-ship missiles. However, the Type 093 is still considered only comparable to the Soviet Victor III class, again using 1970s technology. Future submarines have not yet been seen, but expectations are that China will make another step forward to late 1980s or early 1990s tech levels, producing something on par with the Los Angeles or Akula for the first time.

China also operates a fairly capable fleet of coastal diesel-electric submarines. While some are quite old--the Type 035--most are pretty average for the global submarine force, a mix of Kilos and domestic AIP designs. The large number of boats in operation and their anti-ship missile capability means that these should be considered a real threat, at least in the littoral waters near to China, but they aren't decisive by any means, especially since China is facing off against such threats as Japan's Soryu class, probably the most advanced diesel-electric sub in existence.

In conclusion, the PLAN is still pretty weak on the submarine front--weaker here than on anything but its carrier force, but its capabilities are advancing rapidly and should not be underestimated.

4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants

The surface fleet is definitely the most impressive and capable portion of the PLAN, no questions about it. China once had a fleet consisting mostly of coastal frigates and missile boats. As recently as 2000, its fleet had no real area-air-defense destroyers, and no SAMs that could operate outside visual range. Now, though, the PLAN operates tens of advanced guided-missile destroyers, advanced frigates, and still retains a large number of small, stealthy missile boats.

The major focus of Chinese warships appears to be on anti-air, with anti-surface being a somewhat secondary concern for all but the smallest vessels. This makes sense when you realize that the primary focus is, at least for the moment, on using land-based aircraft to strike against hostile fleet formations using long-range anti-ship missiles, in a very Soviet sort of way--"Backfire raids" using long-range land-based aircraft with anti-ship missiles were one of the US Navy's major concerns during the Cold War, and the very reason for the F-14's existence along with the AIM-54 Phoenix it carried. However, China has been developing anti-surface capabilities as well using ashms and land-attack cruise missiles [generally the same thing, actually]. Since China has finally developed a VLS system that allows it to use the same launcher for multiple missiles, its most recent ships have become more versatile in that role.

How effective these ships are at that task is, however, a relatively open question. Their radars at least seem to quite sophisticated, using flat-panel AESA, and have been dubbed "Chinese AEGIS" by the highly reliable Chinese domestic media. The basic platform their surface-to-air missiles are based on also seems to be fairly capable--the HQ-9 is an S-300 derivative, a respectable SAM system though, again, how capable it is against opponents in an active electronic warfare environment is questionable, and it has basically no capabilities against stealth aircraft like the F-35 as far as anyone knows. The efficacy of their CIWS, again, is open to question. Really this is true of everything about the modern PLAN, and PLA in general. The PLA is secretive, has not exported most of its hardware, and has developed largely independently of foreign militaries, though it is definitely influenced by them. Now that the PLAN has moved away from simply copying foreign hardware and patching it together, its capabilities are much harder to discern.

However, they should be taken as a very real threat, and not written off. My guess would be that their warships are about as capable as most of their non-American counterparts, save those equipped with AEGIS, but that's all my guess is---a guess.

5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers

The PLAN currently has two carriers in service, and two more known to be under construction, and most suspect that it will build several more. However, at the moment, the PLAN's carrier force is largely a paper tiger, designed around training. The first carrier, the Type 001, basically was a "how do you build a carrier" kit bought from Russia, possibly by accident--the "fully functional" Minsk ended up as a theme park, believe it or not. The hull was purchased from Ukraine and then completed in China years later. It is also believed that the PLAN may have learned some things about aircraft carriers from the HMAS Melbourne, which was sold to a Chinese firm for scrapping--rumor has it the PLAN had no clue this had happened and then had a field day looking at all the stuff that hadn't been taken out. This was back in the old days when nobody could imagine that China would have an aircraft carrier. The Type 002, however, is built from scratch, but isn't particularly capable especially as it's a ski-jump carrier, leaving the Type 003 the first carrier which will prove actually useful.

The main thing holding China's carrier fleet back, though, is a lack of a suitable aircraft. Originally China was considering purchasing Su-33s from Russia, hardly a good carrier-based aircraft but functional, but after Russia discovered that China had been mucking about building a Su-27 derivative without asking the deal fell through [China tells a different story, saying that Russia demanded exorbitant amounts to reopen production which it was unwilling to pay for a nearly obsolete aircraft]. As a result China operates the J-15 as its naval fighter, with... less than stellar results. It's extremely heavy, and, if it takes off from the carrier, has minimal range if carrying anything at all--it can't take more than two short range air to air missiles into the sky to fight enemy aircraft. However, the J-15 isn't really intended for combat service--it's intended to teach China how to run carriers, and it seems to work well enough for that task, aside from the multiple fatal crashes. There is, however, thought to be a new carrier fighter in the pipeline--most say the J-31/FC-31, which has reduced RCS and a number of carrier-unique features, is being pitched as a carrier-based aircraft and will serve as China's carrier fighter in the future. China also lacks any fixed wing carrier-based airborne early warning, which could prove troublesome--a lack of AEW means that its view is limited by the horizon--and has no resupply aircraft like the C-2 Greyhound. As a result, for the moment at least, China lacks an effective carrier force, but it is likely to continue developing rapidly in the next decade and become a fairly substantial threat. Remember that as recently as 2010, a Chinese aircraft carrier seemed preposterous to many people, and now they have two.

6. Some attention to land-based aircraft

Land-based aircraft as a naval weapon are not generally used by the US, which has never had a reason to develop them as a doctrinal focus. Sure, you could potentially envision them as being used, and there even were situations where they were utilized, but it just wasn't generally a priority or how things were done. For China, though, taking influence from the Soviets, and lying on littoral seas with hostile powers in the First Island Chain, land-based aircraft and missiles are a key part of doctrine. Although this is often viewed as a new thing, called A2/AD [anti access/area denial], it's really the result of a long historical evolution of naval power, probably most refined by the Soviet Union. As a result, land-based naval aviation plays an important role, firing anti-ship missiles at standoff distances at enemy vessels, and shore-based launchers of anti-ship missiles are also an important weapon. The combination of these systems means that venturing within China's littoral seas is a dangerous proposition during war, and some waters, like those of the Taiwan Strait, are effectively considered closed at this point in the event of hostilities breaking out. For this reason air superiority is also important in this sort of naval warfare, as if either side gains air superiority it can pummel its opponents with air-launched anti-ship missiles. China's capabilities in this area are sophisticated and should not be underestimated, but they are unlikely to go through a rapid period of growth like the PLAN's fleet.

And a brief note dedicated entirely to the DF-21D "Carrier killer" that the PLA likes to show off. It's a pretty impressive capability, on paper, using a ballistic missile to hit a carrier. The CEP [circular error probable] means that it could even happen, presuming that an aircraft carrier was good enough to sit in one place, not moving, long enough to be detected by China. Aircraft carriers look big, but the seas are huge, and they're surprisingly hard to find. They also move quite fast, in excess of of 35mph/55kph, and thus by the time the ballistic missile has launched it might well be out of range given the fact that ballistic missiles are not particularly known for their maneuverability in terminal stages, at least not in the realm of miles. The DF-21D is not a particular threat to the modern aircraft carrier. It could potentially be one if it evolves into a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, but that's a whole additional can of worms, that I might address a different day.

7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?

Unfortunately the PLAN is not exactly the most open of navies, as I've repeatedly mentioned. There are no public debates over acquisitions programs, no big fleet shape plans, relatively little detail.

However, a few things are fairly sure bets or publicly announced.

China has repeatedly announced plans to build a six-carrier force, including the Type 001 and Type 002, but also a pair of Type 003 [already under construction] conventionally powered supercarriers and a pair of Type 004 nuclear powered supercarriers. However, it seems that the Type 004 is currently on hold. Why, exactly, is unclear, but it seems to be technical difficulties, which are not particularly surprising given that China's experience with nuclear maritime propulsion seem to be rather limited and have had poor results in their submarine fleet. The costs were also expected to be too high--China does not have an unlimited quantity of money, despite what it may flaunt, and nuclear carriers are expensive to develop especially given that China has not built a nuclear-powered surface ship before.

A new carrier-based fighter is almost certainly in the cards because the J-15 is pretty much useless. The FC-31 seems by far the most likely candidate but it could be another aircraft we haven't seen yet. The addition of this aircraft will greatly improve the PLAN's capabilities.

China also has two Type 075 amphibious assault ships/LHDs under construction, and I would expect this class to be much more prolific. These ships are much more affordable than the full carriers, and focus on areas in which China is particularly concerned--amphibious assaults, say, on islands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan, and anti-submarine warfare, which is of particular importance given that submarines cannot be easily halted with land-based anti-ship missiles and air-launched cruise missiles provided for in their area denial doctrine--submarines are one of the few things that can slip through that net.

The surface combatant fleet is likely to continue growing, but I am not sure if it will swell much beyond the ~23 Type 052D ships planned and the 8 Type 055s. We're likely to see the retirement of the classes preceding the Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054 frigate, and they may be offloaded to Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Pakistan--there is substantial precedent here, and it seems that China is interested in expanding the naval capabilities of its partners around India.

The submarine fleet is likely to see rapid expansion if the PLAN is satisfied with the Type 095 and Type 096 classes, and we're likely to see more diesel-electric subs built as well. Submarines are generally quite good at fighting submarines and conducting area-denial missions, and the large and capable subsurface forces of Japan, Korea, and the United States means that this has to be an area the PLAN invests more in--and the fact that several Southeast Asian nations are also looking at acquiring submarines makes the issue more pressing.

8. Conclusion

China has in the past decade gone from a third-rate navy to perhaps the greatest threat the US Navy has faced since the Second World War. This has significant geopolitical implications, and has resulted in neighbors scrambling to overhaul their naval forces. The growth of the PLAN means that the US can no longer easily defend Taiwan or the South China Sea, or any of China's littoral waters. This, more than anything else, is what has everyone scrambling in the US talking about "great-power competition" because denying access to the US Navy and working on power projection, an inherently naval thing, is essentially a clear sign that China is looking to directly compete with the United States. Underestimate the PLAN at your own peril.

I hope to have more detail and citations in future posts, but unfortunately the PLAN is very secretive [yes, I've said that fifty times already] and this is a pretty big topic to discuss without going into details about all sorts of naval tidbits. Thanks for reading the fourth post in what I hope will be a fairly substantial series, probably around ~12 posts.

9. Citations

James Holmes, "The Danger Zone In Naval Arms Races"
USNI, Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization
Hans Kristensen, China's Noisy Nuclear Submarines
Eric Wertheim, China's Type 052D Destroyer is a potent adversary
Robert Farley, Let's Talk About The Chinese Navy's Type 055 Destroyer
Ryan Pickrell, Chinese fighter jet holding China back as it builds carrier fleet
Look, much more here is based on loose speculation, more unreliable sources, and stuff I've picked up over the years, because public info is limited. So take everything I say with a grain of salt, but understand that it's the best information I know of.
submitted by AmericanNewt8 to neoliberal [link] [comments]

Is Russia pushing America towards civil war through disinformation with the help of China?

Background Reading:
I've done extensive research on Russia's tactic they call Informatsionnoye Protivoborstvo, IPb, which translates to Information Confrontation, or Information War. A tactic started in the 1990's after the collapse of the USSR. Deemed "Sixth Generation Warfare" by Russian military. It was designed to blur the lines between war and peace.
I've wrote extensively on it here:
https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/gczekd/informatsionnoye_protivoborstvo_ipb/
And the same post but further expanded to include further details and sources here:
https://www.reddit.com/conspiracyNOPOL/comments/hf2iuv/are_you_a_product_of_ipb/
In these posts I give dozens of links to government reports and security agency reports from nations all over the world, some going back over 20 years.
In the second post I expand upon my first and include several links to news reports from nations all over the globe reporting on Russian interference in elections and sowing division among their population.
If you aren't well versed on Russian IPb, they are a good place to start.
Division of the Left:
After further research into the rising violence and confrontations in America, I believe Russia's end goal is Civil War in America.
Russia has been caught stoking the rage in both ends of the spectrum, from Antifa to White Supremacy movements.
This report by the EU discusses how Russia is currently creating and supporting online communities pushing Antifa and far left movements by pushing and amplifying police injustice, social inequality, racial issues and questioning the legitimacy of the government.
https://www.eupoliticalreport.eu/russian-connection-in-us-riots/
Division of the Right:
While at the same time Russia has been supporting and reigniting far right issues and supporting groups like White Pride, Tea Party, Boogaloo movement and other far right groups.
Which this University of Washington article discusses, as well as how the goal is polarization.
https://faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/examining-trolls-polarization.pdf
Russia's Plan for Donald Trump:
Though ultimately their support for the American Far Right is greater, as they also needed to help influence the key piece to their plan, Donald Trump.
Helping influence the American public into electing Donald Trump has been the pivotal point in their entire plan. Without the election of Donald Trump in 2016, America likely would not be in the position it is today. His instability and ego have made him the easily manipulated tool they needed to help ensure America destroys itself from the inside out. Russia is able to manipulate Donald Trump both directly, and indirectly.
They can control Donald Trump directly, by Vladmir Putin playing as his pal. As well as the large Russian debt Donald Trump carries as they bailed out his failing businesses when no bank would touch him due to his bankruptcy of his Atlantic casinos. His debt to Russia and his fondness of Vladmir Putin allow Donald Trump to be directly controlled through direct suggestions.
This foreignpolicy.com article discussing the Russian debt Donald Trump carries.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/21/how-russian-money-helped-save-trumps-business/
Besides the direct control they have over Donald Trump, Russia can indirectly control him as well. Largely by playing against his ego. Through online troll accounts, they can make trending posts that inflame him, causing him to lash out and become unstable. Often attacking the "Left" both Democrats and movements. Donald Trump is not a man lead by logic and reason, he is a man lead by his emotions, in particular his ego, which Russia has been able to weaponize against him, as well as America.
This dashboard, called Hamilton 2.0 is a project powered by machine learning and AI to find and recognize social media posts posted by state backed actors from Russia, China, and Iran.
https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/hamilton-dashboard/
Setting the Stage and Possible Scenarios:
I believe what were are witnessing is Russia pushing America towards Civil War come November 3rd.
They are setting the stage for mass levels of civil unrest or rioting no matter what the outcome of the election.
If Donald Trump wins, there will be mass levels of protesting. Especially if there is any evidence of voter tampering. Donald Trump will likely feel emboldened by his win, if it occurs, that he will likely mobilize the military in order to quickly squash the riots. With the potential outcome of Civil War, even within the government/military itself.
If Donald Trump loses, he will likely blame voter fraud and claim the loss illegitimate. He will likely directly call on his supporters to take to the streets in protest, which will lead to protests from the left. Possibly leading to clashes. There is also a strong chance that Donald Trump will use his appointees within the Judicial Branch to rule the election illegitimate, which would likely lead to protests and rioting by Anti-Trump supporters.
Russia has already attempted to create race wars in America during the 2016 election cycle, they did not succeed. The stage seems set for them to succeed this time.
This article from the Michigan Journal of Race and Law discusses how Russia attempted to create a Race War in America during the 2016 election cycle.
https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1290&context=mjrl
Opinion/Further Conspiracy Theories:
I strongly believe that Russia is in collusion with China in their attempts to dethrone America as the global leader. To what level they are working together, I don't have much evidence to support, so I can not say at this time. They are largely each other's greatest ally, bonded in their distaste of America being seen as the global leader. But I believe neither wants to trust or rely on one another, their partnership is one of necessity. Russia needs China to become globally dominant so that global sanctions against Russia can be lifted. Russia's economy is currently heavily constricted by America lead sanctions against them. China needs Russia, because Russia has the espionage experience that China simply isn't creative or ingenious enough to master on their own. China's espionage is strongly tied to surveillance, information theft, and using its wealth to bribe. Russia has mastered the art of manipulation, they understand the ego of individuals in Western nations. Something China just simply doesn't grasp well, they don't understand how the West thinks, they don't understand individuality on the level we have. Russia does. Russia knows how to exploit our beliefs, ignorances, and ultimately our egos and mind. They know how to manipulate Americans, because they have been doing it since the Cold War. It is arguably their greatest strength, and I believe we may be close to achieving their greatest accomplishment, overthrowing America.
Now here comes the conspiracy. I personally do not believe that SARS-CoV-2 was released intentionally. But if it was released intentionally, it was released to help create the underlying pressure in America that will help Russia's aim of creating Civil War in America to come to fruition. Russia tried in 2016, like I have shown in my previous links, but were unsuccessful. I don't think Russia wanted to take the risk of another failure. They needed to ensure their plan worked this time. Having China release a virus that would cause a global pandemic would help give Russia's plan a solid foundation of angst and anger in America. Which would also be why Russia has heavily been targeting America with anti-vaxx disinformation and Covid-19 misinformation. They want the pandemic to take a strong hold, the more damage the pandemic does to America, the higher the chance things will reach a tipping point and spill over into Civil War.
Now as I said, I do not believe SARS-CoV-2 was released intentionally, but if you are someone who does, it was likely released by China in collusion with Russia to push America towards Civil War.
China's Role:
China's role in Russia's plan is simple, they see themselves as the emerging global super power of this century. It has been a plan it work for decades, and it is only accelerating. The first step was becoming the World's production powerhouse. It offered unbelievably cheap production by exploiting its workers and the environment. Capitalist Western nations could not resist in their search of ever growing profits. Hyper capitalist America was drawn in the furthest, becoming heavily reliant on cheap Chinese goods for the functioning of their society. Other nations fell for this as well, but to varying lesser degrees.
This gave China the money they needed to move to the second stage in becoming the dominant global leader. They couldn't simply produce products designed by Western nations, they needed the ability to design and produce these products themselves. With the money the West gave China, China turned around and starting heavily funding Western institutions. Corporations, Government funded alliances, and University institutions. With these becoming dependent on Chinese funding, they became vulnerable to Chinese bribes and data theft. China funds these institutions so that they do the research for China, and then China steals the research and intellectual property it needs to further their own research. With the end goal of China becoming completely vertically integrated in production, the ability to produce everything on its own, from the raw materials and design, to the finished product. Essentially eliminating Western countries from the process, which previously was the all import design aspect. With China producing from start to finish, it would give them an incredible amount of control over Western nations, who would be almost entirely dependent on China. The dependence on China would allow them to extract far greater profits from the West than they do now.
If you want a real world example of what China is doing, look at Amazon, which has essentially copied China's gameplan. Be unreasonably cheap by exploiting workers to centralize reliance on them, where they will then later be in the position to take full advantage of their customers.
Another key part of China's plan of becoming the new dominant global leader for this century, is their heavy investment in developing nations. Being seen as a the global leader is a pay to play scenario. Previously this role was filled by America. Which is where Russia again becomes part of China's goal. Russia helped elect Donald Trump, who views these pay to play situations as "Bad Deals". Donald Trump is simply too simple to understand these "Bad Deals" was America paying for nations to be reliant on America and retain America's global influence. Pay to play. As Donald Trump and America pulls funding from global institutions like WHO, pulls out of trade deals that would make nations reliant on America like NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership, as well as funding to developing nations, America is losing influence. Every time America steps back from these, China steps up. Greatly increasing it's funding to global organizations and even more so, developing countries. South America and Africa still have many developing nations. Globally speaking these two continents along with India represent the fastest growing markets. China has been investing heavily into these regions to build infrastructure, so that when they become strongly developed, they will look to China as the global leader, not America.
Many American's tend to not take South America or Africa's development seriously. In fact, many often scoff at their importance. But their development is crucial to China's overall plan. The reason? Food. The one thing that China is currently heavily reliant on the West for, particularly America, is food. China simply doesn't have the food production to feed its 1.43 billion citizens. As it stands now, without American staple foods, China would starve. Their plan to combat this is to develop South America and Africa. Both South America and Africa have the land mass and climate to be incredibly good sources of food production. Unfortunately they are currently underdeveloped and unable to meet China's demands. Once China finishes developing these continents, they will be more than capable of supplying China with food so that it can end its reliance on America. Brazil's current destruction of their rain forest to create space for agriculture is likely evidence that my belief in this is coming true.
Conclusion/Summary:
This was a long read, hopefully you made it this far. If you are American, hopefully you have read my views with an open mind, and carefully reviewed my sources. Hopefully it has enlightened you to what is going on in your country, who is causing it, why they are causing it, and how they are causing it. You all need to realize how you are being manipulated, and quickly change your path. There is four months until things will likely pique. If the path isn't changed, America could very well end up in Civil War, and it could even possibly trigger the Third World War. American's need to unite and realize how their government and their views are being manipulated. Vote with intention. Do not become apathetic. Get active, get informed, get involved, but do not get violent, do not get divisive. That is their goal, and it will be America's downfall if it continues. Do your part, learn about your government, at the local, state, and federal level. Don't fall for the apathy trap you're being sold that all parties are the same, they aren't. That is a lie you are told to keep you apathetic to voting. Come November 3rd, do your part. In the meantime, get involved and educate and inform others. Ignorance breeds hate, your best way to counter it is by helping your fellow Americans understand exactly what is going on. Goodluck.
Final Note:
I know some readers with see "Russian Influence" and immediately reject it and laugh it off as a leftist boogeyman. This line seems incredibly reflective, "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist."
If you can read this post,
https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/gczekd/informatsionnoye_protivoborstvo_ipb/
And think Russia isn't targeting America heavily with disinformation, you've bought the trick.
EDIT/Backstory on Putin's personal feud with Hilary Clinton:
Copypasta from my response to a comment about the person level politics that have influenced how this has played out
For further backstory on why Russia and Putin is targeting America recently, and specifically Hilary Clinton previously, you have to look to Russia's Snow Revolution.
In 2011 in Russia's election, America detected what they suspected to be widespread voter fraud. Then Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, publicly remarked on this voter fraud. Which lent credibility to the internal groups within Russia who believed Putin enacted voting fraud. This kicked off a massive movement in Russia from 2011-2013 called the Snow Revolution. Which lead to the arrest and disappearance of many dissenters, political opponents, and journalists.
Vladimir Putin clearly and directly singled out Hilary Clinton and said she was responsible for this movement, and claiming she was directly responsible for supporting and funding it. Putin has a personal feud with Clinton, as he saw her as being directly responsible for the largest challenge to his power in during his reign. She was claimed to have directed a movement that saw Russia's strongman leader pushed around, by a woman. Putin could not tolerate this in public, or within the ranks of governing officials. Russia's economy is weak, and Putin must keep the image that he is a strongman with complete control of Russia, unless movements against him would build. In order to regain his image, Russia's IPb campaigns against America, but specifically the Democrats, and Hilary Clinton were put in place.
Ever since 2013, Hilary Clinton has been targeted by Russian hacking and hoaxes pushed through social media platforms. Ultimately leading up to Russian linked hacking of Clinton's emails which was a great detriment to her election campaign. Putin succeeded in interfering with Clinton's attempt to govern, much like he accused her of doing in 2011.
Some background information on the feud between Putin and Hilary Clinton.
https://time.com/4422723/putin-russia-hillary-clinton/
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
Nations are run by people. People have egos. Those egos can be damaged. What we currently see today in America has been influenced by that.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/clinton-says-russian-elections-neither-free-nor-faiarticle4237000/
Read that article, these are the comments from almost 10 years ago that created what we see in America. These are the comments that made the Democrats and specifically Hilary Clinton the target of Putin's IPb campaigns. These are the comments that lead to Russia helping elect Donald Trump.
EDIT: Thanks for the awards! Just looking to provide others with some real world conspiracies!
submitted by TurdieBirdies to conspiracytheories [link] [comments]

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Is Russia pushing America towards civil war through disinformation with the help of China?

Preface:
I know my previous post I mention in "background reading" were posted in conspiracy subs, but I assure you they are fact based, and only legitimate government articles, academic articles, and security organization articles are used as sources. I simply didn't know of any other subs that would take this type of geopolitical issues that amount to conspiracy seriously.
If you have any suggestions for political discussion subs that would like to discuss this material, please inform me of them.
Background Reading:
I've done extensive research on Russia's tactic they call Informatsionnoye Protivoborstvo, IPb, which translates to Information Confrontation, or Information War. A tactic started in the 1990's after the collapse of the USSR. Deemed "Sixth Generation Warfare" by Russian military. It was designed to blur the lines between war and peace.
I've wrote extensively on it here:
https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/gczekd/informatsionnoye_protivoborstvo_ipb/
And the same post but further expanded to include further details and sources here:
https://www.reddit.com/conspiracyNOPOL/comments/hf2iuv/are_you_a_product_of_ipb/
In these posts I give dozens of links to government reports and security agency reports from nations all over the world, some going back over 20 years.
In the second post I expand upon my first and include several links to news reports from nations all over the globe reporting on Russian interference in elections and sowing division among their population.
If you aren't well versed on Russian IPb, they are a good place to start.
Division of the Left:
After further research into the rising violence and confrontations in America, I believe Russia's end goal is Civil War in America.
Russia has been caught stoking the rage in both ends of the spectrum, from Antifa to White Supremacy movements.
This report by the EU discusses how Russia is currently creating and supporting online communities pushing Antifa and far left movements by pushing and amplifying police injustice, social inequality, racial issues and questioning the legitimacy of the government.
https://www.eupoliticalreport.eu/russian-connection-in-us-riots/
Division of the Right:
While at the same time Russia has been supporting and reigniting far right issues and supporting groups like White Pride, Tea Party, Boogaloo movement and other far right groups.
Which this University of Washington article discusses, as well as how the goal is polarization.
https://faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/examining-trolls-polarization.pdf
Russia's Plan for Donald Trump:
Though ultimately their support for the American Far Right is greater, as they also needed to help influence the key piece to their plan, Donald Trump.
Helping influence the American public into electing Donald Trump has been the pivotal point in their entire plan. Without the election of Donald Trump in 2016, America likely would not be in the position it is today. His instability and ego have made him the easily manipulated tool they needed to help ensure America destroys itself from the inside out. Russia is able to manipulate Donald Trump both directly, and indirectly.
They can control Donald Trump directly, by Vladmir Putin playing as his pal. As well as the large Russian debt Donald Trump carries as they bailed out his failing businesses when no bank would touch him due to his bankruptcy of his Atlantic casinos. His debt to Russia and his fondness of Vladmir Putin allow Donald Trump to be directly controlled through direct suggestions.
This foreignpolicy.com article discussing the Russian debt Donald Trump carries.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/21/how-russian-money-helped-save-trumps-business/
Besides the direct control they have over Donald Trump, Russia can indirectly control him as well. Largely by playing against his ego. Through online troll accounts, they can make trending posts that inflame him, causing him to lash out and become unstable. Often attacking the "Left" both Democrats and movements. Donald Trump is not a man lead by logic and reason, he is a man lead by his emotions, in particular his ego, which Russia has been able to weaponize against him, as well as America.
This dashboard, called Hamilton 2.0 is a project powered by machine learning and AI to find and recognize social media posts posted by state backed actors from Russia, China, and Iran.
https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/hamilton-dashboard/
Setting the Stage and Possible Scenarios:
I believe what were are witnessing is Russia pushing America towards Civil War come November 3rd.
They are setting the stage for mass levels of civil unrest or rioting no matter what the outcome of the election.
If Donald Trump wins, there will be mass levels of protesting. Especially if there is any evidence of voter tampering. Donald Trump will likely feel emboldened by his win, if it occurs, that he will likely mobilize the military in order to quickly squash the riots. With the potential outcome of Civil War, even within the government/military itself.
If Donald Trump loses, he will likely blame voter fraud and claim the loss illegitimate. He will likely directly call on his supporters to take to the streets in protest, which will lead to protests from the left. Possibly leading to clashes. There is also a strong chance that Donald Trump will use his appointees within the Judicial Branch to rule the election illegitimate, which would likely lead to protests and rioting by Anti-Trump supporters.
Russia has already attempted to create race wars in America during the 2016 election cycle, they did not succeed. The stage seems set for them to succeed this time.
This article from the Michigan Journal of Race and Law discusses how Russia attempted to create a Race War in America during the 2016 election cycle.
https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1290&context=mjrl
Opinion:
I strongly believe that Russia is in collusion with China in their attempts to dethrone America as the global leader. To what level they are working together, I don't have much evidence to support, so I can not say at this time. They are largely each other's greatest ally, bonded in their distaste of America being seen as the global leader. But I believe neither wants to trust or rely on one another, their partnership is one of necessity. Russia needs China to become globally dominant so that global sanctions against Russia can be lifted. Russia's economy is currently heavily constricted by America lead sanctions against them. China needs Russia, because Russia has the espionage experience that China simply isn't creative or ingenious enough to master on their own. China's espionage is strongly tied to surveillance, information theft, and using its wealth to bribe. Russia has mastered the art of manipulation, they understand the ego of individuals in Western nations. Something China just simply doesn't grasp well, they don't understand how the West thinks, they don't understand individuality on the level we have. Russia does. Russia knows how to exploit our beliefs, ignorances, and ultimately our egos and mind. They know how to manipulate Americans, because they have been doing it since the Cold War. It is arguably their greatest strength, and I believe we may be close to achieving their greatest accomplishment, overthrowing America.
China's Role:
China's role in Russia's plan is simple, they see themselves as the emerging global super power of this century. It has been a plan it work for decades, and it is only accelerating. The first step was becoming the World's production powerhouse. It offered unbelievably cheap production by exploiting its workers and the environment. Capitalist Western nations could not resist in their search of ever growing profits. Hyper capitalist America was drawn in the furthest, becoming heavily reliant on cheap Chinese goods for the functioning of their society. Other nations fell for this as well, but to varying lesser degrees.
This gave China the money they needed to move to the second stage in becoming the dominant global leader. They couldn't simply produce products designed by Western nations, they needed the ability to design and produce these products themselves. With the money the West gave China, China turned around and starting heavily funding Western institutions. Corporations, Government funded alliances, and University institutions. With these becoming dependent on Chinese funding, they became vulnerable to Chinese bribes and data theft. China funds these institutions so that they do the research for China, and then China steals the research and intellectual property it needs to further their own research. With the end goal of China becoming completely vertically integrated in production, the ability to produce everything on its own, from the raw materials and design, to the finished product. Essentially eliminating Western countries from the process, which previously was the all important design aspect. With China producing from start to finish, it would give them an incredible amount of control over Western nations, who would be almost entirely dependent on China. The dependence on China would allow them to extract far greater profits from the West than they do now.
If you want a real world example of what China is doing, look at Amazon, which has essentially copied China's gameplan. Be unreasonably cheap by exploiting workers to centralize reliance on them, where they will then later be in the position to take full advantage of their customers.
Another key part of China's plan of becoming the new dominant global leader for this century, is their heavy investment in developing nations. Being seen as a the global leader is a pay to play scenario. Previously this role was filled by America. Which is where Russia again becomes part of China's goal. Russia helped elect Donald Trump, who views these pay to play situations as "Bad Deals". Donald Trump is simply too simple to understand these "Bad Deals" was America paying for nations to be reliant on America and retain America's global influence. Pay to play. As Donald Trump and America pulls funding from global institutions like WHO, pulls out of trade deals that would make nations reliant on America like NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership, as well as funding to developing nations, America is losing influence. Every time America steps back from these, China steps up. Greatly increasing it's funding to global organizations and even more so, developing countries. South America and Africa still have many developing nations. Globally speaking these two continents along with India represent the fastest growing markets. China has been investing heavily into these regions to build infrastructure, so that when they become strongly developed, they will look to China as the global leader, not America.
Many American's tend to not take South America or Africa's development seriously. In fact, many often scoff at their importance. But their development is crucial to China's overall plan. The reason? Food. The one thing that China is currently heavily reliant on the West for, particularly America, is food. China simply doesn't have the food production to feed its 1.43 billion citizens. As it stands now, without American staple foods, China would starve. Their plan to combat this is to develop South America and Africa. Both South America and Africa have the land mass and climate to be incredibly good sources of food production. Unfortunately they are currently underdeveloped and unable to meet China's demands. Once China finishes developing these continents, they will be more than capable of supplying China with food so that it can end its reliance on America. Brazil's current destruction of their rain forest to create space for agriculture is likely evidence that my belief in this is coming true.
Conclusion/Summary:
This was a long read, hopefully you made it this far. If you are American, hopefully you have read my views with an open mind, and carefully reviewed my sources. Hopefully it has enlightened you to what is going on in your country, who is causing it, why they are causing it, and how they are causing it. You all need to realize how you are being manipulated, and quickly change your path. There is four months until things will likely pique. If the path isn't changed, America could very well end up in Civil War, and it could even possibly trigger the Third World War. American's need to unite and realize how their government and their views are being manipulated. Vote with intention. Do not become apathetic. Get active, get informed, get involved, but do not get violent, do not get divisive. That is their goal, and it will be America's downfall if it continues. Do your part, learn about your government, at the local, state, and federal level. Don't fall for the apathy trap you're being sold that all parties are the same, they aren't. That is a lie you are told to keep you apathetic to voting. Come November 3rd, do your part. In the meantime, get involved and educate and inform others. Ignorance breeds hate, your best way to counter it is by helping your fellow Americans understand exactly what is going on. Goodluck.
Would love to hear feedback and people views on this geopolitical issue of Russia/China and the role of disinformation in the West.
EDIT/Backstory on Putin's personal feud with Hilary Clinton:
Copypasta from my response to a comment about the person level politics that have influenced how this has played out
For further backstory on why Russia and Putin is targeting America recently, and specifically Hilary Clinton previously, you have to look to Russia's Snow Revolution.
In 2011 in Russia's election, America detected what they suspected to be widespread voter fraud. Then Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, publicly remarked on this voter fraud. Which lent credibility to the internal groups within Russia who believed Putin enacted voting fraud. This kicked off a massive movement in Russia from 2011-2013 called the Snow Revolution. Which lead to the arrest and disappearance of many dissenters, political opponents, and journalists.
Vladimir Putin clearly and directly singled out Hilary Clinton and said she was responsible for this movement, and claiming she was directly responsible for supporting and funding it. Putin has a personal feud with Clinton, as he saw her as being directly responsible for the largest challenge to his power in during his reign. She was claimed to have directed a movement that saw Russia's strongman leader pushed around, by a woman. Putin could not tolerate this in public, or within the ranks of governing officials. Russia's economy is weak, and Putin must keep the image that he is a strongman with complete control of Russia, unless movements against him would build. In order to regain his image, Russia's IPb campaigns against America, but specifically the Democrats, and Hilary Clinton were put in place.
Ever since 2013, Hilary Clinton has been targeted by Russian hacking and hoaxes pushed through social media platforms. Ultimately leading up to Russian linked hacking of Clinton's emails which was a great detriment to her election campaign. Putin succeeded in interfering with Clinton's attempt to govern, much like he accused her of doing in 2011.
Some background information on the feud between Putin and Hilary Clinton.
https://time.com/4422723/putin-russia-hillary-clinton/
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
Nations are run by people. People have egos. Those egos can be damaged. What we currently see today in America has been influenced by that.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/clinton-says-russian-elections-neither-free-nor-faiarticle4237000/
Read that article, these are the comments from almost 10 years ago that created what we see in America. These are the comments that made the Democrats and specifically Hilary Clinton the target of Putin's IPb campaigns. These are the comments that lead to Russia helping elect Donald Trump.
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