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GME - EndGame Part 2: Cohen, Market Cap, Potential Investors

Hello again folks. This is an extension of my DD last week in which I shared some research on short positions, GME’s debt, and some speculation on institutional investing. Since that post, GME is up 75% and there’s been lots of good bullish / bearish DD on the short term.
In this post, I’m going to cover 3 topics, focusing on the mid-to-long term prospects for GME: 1) Cohen, 2) GME’s market cap potential, and 3) potential investors that could continue to pile in.
TL:DR; You need to think about GME differently. Not as a trader. Not as an investor. You need to think like a venture capitalist. This is an unprecedented opportunity, and the first time I’ve gone all-in - I’m more bullish now than when the stock was trading sub $15. If you’re in GME you need to get in with conviction otherwise you’re going to lose by selling when it drops.

Quick aside - my history and positions:

I’ve been a passive investor for many years. This is literally the first time I’ve taken an interest in becoming an active investor. I opened an RH account in August to start speculating on GME. My first post called out some cheap lottery plays that took my speculating account from $5K - $20K in 3 weeks. I’ve since posted a few times on GME, even trying to tell you to buy the post-earnings dip, and added more to my active trading accounts. I’ve taken $10K -> $130K on RH and $230K -> $480K in IBKR since slowly adding to GME since September.
UPDATE: I have deleted my positions in this post - will explain why in my next post. I'm still holding.
All that being said, thus far I’ve been thinking about GME as a trade - trying to get in at the lowest cost I could for the maximum upside on a near-term exit, but I’ve switched completely into thinking of GME is a ridiculously asymmetric investment with massive potential in the next 2-3 year timeframe - even at $35. Even at $45, $50, $60. That’s why I added roughly 2500 shares on Friday at around $36 despite adding very cautiously when GME was below $20. I’m also completely all-in on RH with options (mostly deep ITM, a few fds) - $0 buying power left.
Grab a drink, sit down. Let me tell you why I’ve gotten more aggressive, and probably why you shouldn’t worry about what price you pay right now, as long as you’re willing to believe and hold.

About Cohen (and friends)

From the recent 8K about the board changes (which you should definitely read if you’re putting serious money in):
As part of the Agreement, RC Ventures has agreed to customary standstill provisions*, which provide that from the date of the Agreement until the earlier of (a) the date that is 30 calendar days prior to the deadline for the submission of director nominations by stockholders for the Company’s* 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and (b) the date that is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 Annual Meeting (such period, the “Standstill Period”), RC Ventures will not, among other things: (i) acquire beneficial ownership in, or aggregate economic exposure to, directly or indirectly, more than 19.9% of the Company’s outstanding common stock; (ii) make any proposal for consideration by stockholders at any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company; (iii) make any offer or proposal with respect to any extraordinary transactions; or (iv) seek, alone or in concert with others, the appointment, election or removal of any directors in opposition to any recommendation of the Board, in each case as further described in the Agreement. As part of the Agreement, the Company has permitted RC Ventures to acquire, whether in a single transaction or multiple transactions from time to time, additional shares of the Company’s common stock to the extent such acquisitions would result in RC Ventures having beneficial ownership of less than 20.0% of the outstanding shares, without triggering the restrictions that would otherwise be imposed under Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (the “DGCL”), and RC Ventures has agreed that upon acquiring beneficial ownership 20.0% or more of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, the restrictions under Section 203 of the DGCL would apply to a potential business combination with RC Ventures as an “interested stockholder” (as defined in Section 203 of the DGCL).
This is critical: This agreement was the result of a negotiation between Cohen and the existing board.
  1. After his activist letter calling out the board and then 13D buy after the earnings dip rocketed the stock up from 12 -> 20, it was clear to everyone that RC was the reason GME’s stock was heading up. The GME board was afraid of a hostile takeover / losing their jobs. This agreement allowed Cohen and 2 others on the board as long as he didn’t attempt a hostile takeover.
  2. Cohen wants it all. In the activist letter, he publicly said “no” to just one board seat. He then publicly bought more as soon as Sherman threatened a shelf offering to dilute him below 10%.
In addition to getting added to the board, Cohen brought along 2 execs who built Chewy with him:
He’s not fucking around folks. He wants to build another Chewy, and he’s bringing the people who helped him do it the first time to do it again.
As a result of the agreement, he’s limited to buying up to 20% of shares until 2022. Why not 13%? Simple - Cohen wants the option to buy more. He’s not happy with a single board seat; he’s not going to settle for simply getting added to the board; and he’s not going to settle for 13% ownership.
Also, remember that Alan and Jim have 💲 to buy in as well. I haven't seen their holdings yet. Their time is worth more than their money and they've already decided to put their time in.

Cohen is not an exec - he’s a founder with an all-in mentality

Go read this bloomberg Cohen interview to understand his mindset.
  1. Cohen himself is an all-in person. Key quote:
    1. “When I find things I have a lot of conviction in, I go all-in*.”*
    2. Cohen is a founder that has gone through the successful creation of a startup. When you are startup founder, most of your NW is tied to equity in your company. You are trained to have skin in the game. You’re not allowed to think you have a safety net. You give up years of your life and bet everything because you have to believe in what you’re doing. Founders typically have 30-50% ownership of their company.
    3. “Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.”
  2. He only sold Chewy rather taking it to IPO because of his Dad’s health. He cut his entrepreneurial career short and he’s itching to get back in.
  3. Cohen sold Chewy for $3.35B, with estimates stating he personally walked away with about $600M after taxes.
  4. Cohen has a lot of capital to buy more. After selling Chewy, he went all-in on Apple & WFC, which as of June was up 40%.
    1. “ Cohen says his portfolio, when including dividends and a few other stock holdings, has returned more than 40% over the past 3 years, beating the market.”
    2. Aapl was his largest holding, and is up another 50% since June 5 when the Bloomberg article was published.
    3. Cohen lives in FL - with no income or capital gains for individuals, unlike other founders who live in CA which taxes all cap gains as ordinary income.
    4. I’m going to estimate his net worth (minus his GME holdings) is around $800M-$1B.
  5. Cohen’s 9,001,000 (it’s over 9000! 🐲🏐) shares have thus far been purchased at something like an average of $12/share, for a total investment of around $110M.
So Cohen has put in $110M out of his $1B into GME. Does that sound like he’s all-in? Absolutely fucking not. Cohen’s going to buy up to the max he can this year (20%), likely by selling some other holdings prior to cap gains tax law changes. He can add more next year after the standstill period is done.

What will lead to Cohen’s next purchase of GME

Thus far, every RC purchase has been about sending a message.
  1. Prior to Q3 earnings, his purchases were signaling an intent to the board that he was serious about wanting to get involved. He also rubbed it in their faces that the stock price was largely appreciating because of him. From the activist letter:
    1. “We recognize that the Board may feel it is insulated from stockholder scrutiny after adding new directors this past spring and seeing a recent stock price uptick (which only came on the heels of RC Ventures filing its 13D)” (what a fucking burn).
  2. If there was any doubt about RC’s impact on the stock price, it was put to rest after Q3’s earnings, where the current leadership’s hubris and threat of diluting RC led to a drop of almost 30%. RC then bought the dip, shoved it in their faces, and the market GME again rocketing GME to 20 in a massive post-earnings recovery. Message sent again - “The market wants me. Let me the fuck in.”
  3. Now that Cohen and the Chewy folks are on the board, he’s going to angle for CEO. He’s not looking to advise GME. He wants to go all-in, to run GME. He’s holding the optionality of buying more based on the success of his attempt to take over GME through non-hostile means.
If you see Cohen buy more GME, he’s sending another message. This time it’s because it’s clear to him he’s going to be CEO and wants to max his skin in the game. If you see Cohen buy, it’s “CEO talks going well” - you fucking buy.

GME’s market cap potential

  1. Cohen sees a $200BN+ total addressable market cap for gaming by 2023. For contrast, Chewy was playing in the pet food/supplies market, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of under $50BN annually. GME’s potential is at base 4x that of Chewy. This does not even account for the pc gaming hardware market, which is another $35BN+.
  2. Chewy’s market cap is $44BN on $6BN of annual revenue.
  3. Chewy’s Q3 quarterly income was up 45% YoY. While GME’s quarterly income was down YoY, its e-commerce revenue was up 257% trouncing Chewy’s growth rate.
  4. GME’s Q4 early sales preview reported 300% E-commerce growth and annual run-rate of $5BN
In other words, even if you give GME’s physical locations no value, GME’s ecommerce business is growing 5x faster than Chewy and already has 75% of online revenue.
Summary: Chewy is priced > 7X times its annual total revenue. GME is priced at .45 its annual ecommerce revenue, despite GME having 5-6 greater TAM and growing its ecommerce business 5X as fast Chewy.
What. The. Fuck.
I’ve never seen a stock more mispriced.
People talking about $100 price targets are suffering from a fucking lack of imagination.
Even if you completely discount
  1. GME’s physical business
  2. its rev sharing partnership with MSFT
  3. its 5x faster growth and 5x TAM
and give GME the same P/S multiple that Chewy has on its ecommerce business, that puts GME currently at a fair market cap above $35BN. That means GME should be at least $500/share.
In pictures:

Comparing Ecommerce Revenue vs Market cap on Chewy vs GME today

Showing what the fair market value Market Cap of GME would be with Chewy's P/S

Fair Market Value (using comps) of GME is at least $500/share.
$35/share is a fucking steal. Who cares about the short-term dips as shorts try to weasel themselves out of their positions. The market will eventually wake up to this sleeping beast. In a year you’re not going to care if you got in at 4, 12, 20, 35, or 50. You’re going to only care if you’re in or not.

Potential Investors

An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, right? So are the potential buyers of this growing company?
Here’s a list in decreasing order of likelihood.
  1. Elon (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
    1. If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
  2. Buffett (More likely, still improbable). I’m actually amazed that while Buffett & co were lamenting that there are no interesting stocks to invest in and moving to cash, that they absolutely missed the boat on GME while it was at its lows. It’s a complete value play right up his alley (in a business he can understand). My only hypothesis here is that the market cap is too small and he could not make a meaningful investment. Once GME grows to a more respectable market cap ($10b+) I can see Buffett stepping in and making an investment.
  3. Cohen’s connections. (Highly likely if Cohen is CEO). This is the big one. And I mean absolutely nail in the coffin re-pricing of GME for the foreseeable future. Go read this Harvard Business Review piece on Cohen specifically on how Cohen puts importance on raising money and the people that backed him.
    1. Look, I’ve started a startup before in the valley (unsuccessfully unfortunately). However, you don’t start a company without making a shit-ton of venture capitalist & angel investor connections. Cohen has stated that when pitching Chewy he was rejected by over 100 investors. I can absolutely-fucking-guarantee you that every single one of them remembers their mistake and would not miss the opportunity to invest in Cohen again. And don’t forget all of the investors who DID invest with Cohen and reaped the benefits with Chewy. While venture capitalists don’t generally make investments in public equities, this is a truly unique situation. Cohen is treating this like a rebirth, a new venture bootstrapped from GME’s bones. If VCs as a firm will not invest, you can bet your ass that those individuals will throw their personal money at Cohen. However this only happens if he’s CEO. As soon as he’s CEO, a single long weekend trip to the valley might mean 100+ investor meetings with the strategic pitch.
      1. My biggest fear here is that VCs/PE band to take the company private at some small multiple (2-3x) and then reap the benefits while Cohen turns the company around only to re-list it to us 5 years down the road at 30X the valuation.
    2. Thus far, it’s been us retail retards vs the wall street shorts. HFs shorting this thing have the advantage in both tactics and capital. However, if Silicon Valley money starts pouring money into this the game is over. You cannot believe the amount of money that gets thrown into startups with 90% of it burning up into thin air. $3B market cap? That’s nothing. Folks with Silicon Valley money & risk tolerance would have no problem betting on a serial entrepreneur making something amazing out of a company that already has a customer base, revenue, distribution - all in the same business (e-commerce) the entrepreneur already proved themselves in.
  4. You, and every other retard that believes. Look, this was my point at the beginning. You need to think like a VC here. VCs are the ultimate YOLO autists making million dollar bets and not seeing a penny of it for years. They are the ultimate 💎✋🤚. You need to decide if you have conviction for the long term and then buy in. 💎✋🤚 doesn’t mean selling at $100. It doesn’t means selling at $200. It means not selling at all this year no matter the price, and at least until you learn for sure whether Cohen is the new CEO. It means believing so hard that you 20-100X your investment in 2 years when the market wakes up to the ridiculous mispricing.
    1. Remember that if Cohen is elected CEO he can (and likely will) buy more than a 20% stake in 2022.
    2. Remember Buffett’s actual quote: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
I’ve put every dollar I can into shares in IBKR, minus some April calls. I hold no covered calls except for some call spreads I had in RH prior to recent bump. I have April calls because I will put more cash into GME after taxes are done, and I know much cash I have to use. Calls let me cap the price I would have to pay now.
This is personal research. Do your own DD.
A wiser investor than me gave the advice of “Don’t aim to maximise profit, minimize regret.” If you’re not in GME yet, ask yourself how you would truly feel if what everyone here is saying panned out to be true, and you weren’t participating.
Oh, and of course: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Update 1: I'm still holding today, but I realized I made a pretty big mistake on the ecommerce revenue analysis. GME's 2019 e-commerce revenue was 1.35B (not 1.35B for the quarter), so divide my price target by 4 - $125/share or $8B market cap.
submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Why aren't big cities using indoor gardens skyscrapers to reduce cost of social programs and improve air quality in a sustainable way? (LONG)

So I ran across something that talked about how grow enough food for a family of four for a year in 550 sq ft (~51sq m) with indoor gardens. That got me thinking, why don't large cities build large indoor gardens the size of sky scrapers?
New York City has 274 buildings over 150m tall according to Wikipedia. I'll use the Silver Towers (ranked 99th in height at 199m) for math. On their website, they state it is 1.2 million sq ft in residential and common areas plus 20K in parking. So let's say 1.3M sq ftThe (120,773.952 sq m) overall. Each tower is 60 stories tall (ignoring how some sections are lower). Total construction cost was $20M. I'm going to use 2016 Public Welfare Financial Condition Report for SNAP information.
THE TOWER
So, New York builds a top 100 tallest building modified with things like:
Applying this to Silver Tower's 60 floors, excluding one floor as roof, one floor for things like delivery docks, collection chutes from upper floors, and/or employee cafeteria, and another for administrative areas, storage, ect.
Assuming 550/51 is actually accurate, that would be enough to feed just over 6,400 people a year. That may not sound like much to the 356,350 that are currently on SNAP in New York City. But consider if New York City built 100? That's 36.5% more buildings over 150m but could feed almost TWICE the number of the people on SNAP with fresh produce. Evenly spaced around the city, that'd be a produce tower every 3 miles or so (based on city area being 302.6 sq mi).

THE PROGRAM
SNAP
  1. NYC could be responsible for creating an online program similar to Walmart+ or Instacart. Staff would be required for keeping the website up and protected, as well as sorters to prepare the packages for pickup. If delivery is included, drivers or a third party contractor company such as DoorDash would need to be sourced.
  2. 'Standard' boxes could be prepared. This would be less labor intensive than on-demand/changing boxes.
  3. A floor could be given up to open a "store" to SNAP participants. Sorters would now be replaced with cashiers and stockers. Participants shop their own groceries like normal but since there is no middle man between production and sale, the prices would be much cheaper.
In the long run, this also reduces Medicaid costs (because people who are on SNAP are likely eligible for Medicaid) are healthier. Additionally, the tower could be used as a preparation/cooking area for local schools or Meals on Wheels, reducing costs in both those programs while increasing health of individuals in that program.
STAFFING
THE COST AND POTENTIAL SAVINGS
If the construction cost matched Silver Towers, that'd be $2B in taxpayer money. Let's say it's split between 10 years, so $200M per year. The link earlier stated 3.8% increase in SNAP lead to $50M more used that year. If 10 towers are built per year, and it saves NYC 4.2% per 10 towers, that is $58.38M. The savings increase exponentially every year.
In 5 years, they can almost fully cover SNAP recipients with fresh produce. The SNAP program costs NYC $1.39B per year. Very little will need to be given for processed foods, if NYC does not also build a processing areas such as juicing for oranges and apples. They are saving In another 5, they could cover Citymeal's 50,000 homebound elderly and still feed over 300,000 children in NYC schools.
If they continued that trend, say to a tower per 1.5 miles instead of 3, schools could rely more heavily on these towers to reduce food costs, which could lead to more funds being available for technology upgrades and teacher salary increases. A tower every 1.5 miles would equal 200 towers generating enough produce to feed 1.44M people a year. There are 1.1M students in NYC public schools, meaning it could almost fully cover all SNAP recipients' AND public student meal's produce needs.
I guess TL;DR I believe that large cities should be using skyscraper sized towers to improve the lives of the local community. If NYC built 100- 60 floor buildings specially designed to allow natural light to produce fresh, local produce, I believe it would lead to higher quality of living by improving air and water quality, reducing crime, improving education, creating jobs, increasing access to & the consumption of produce, and increasing average health while also freeing up funds to assist other programs (such as creating a free feminine hygiene product program), reducing reliance on fossil fuels, reducing water pollution caused by farming and reducing the amount of flat land needed for produce farming.
Edit: Some of the links immediately didn't work. Sorry about that!
Edit 2: Thank you so much everyone for all the insight and counter arguments that have been provided! When I thought of this last night, I never expected it to grow like this. I did not update "cost and potential savings" because I am waiting for new info! I tried to update at least the arguments now. I will try to keep updating!
submitted by AbjectSociety to sustainability [link] [comments]

My Options Overview / Guide (V2)

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.

I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:
Don't trade until you understand:
Basics / Mechanics
General Tips and Ideas:
Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation
Trade Planning & Position Management Tips
-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads
Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation
-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle
Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies
Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)
Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)
Reverse Iron Condor
LEAPs
PMCC / PMCP
Advanced Orders

Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.
submitted by CompulsionOSU to thetagang [link] [comments]

Warranties, Extended Warranties, and Appliances

Appliance tech here:
I thought I'd share my views and experiences on the world of appliances and their warranties. I started this trade at a company that was an authorized servicer that did both manufacturer and extended warranties. I am now running my own independent company that specializes in out-of-warranty calls so I'm someone who's been on both sides and seen all sorts of crazy stuff.
Let's start with manufacturer's warranties:
Appliances sold in Canada come with a 1 year manufacturer's warranty which protects against design and manufacturing defects. These are generally "top to bottom" warranties that will cover all parts and labour.
There are some caveats:
It is very uncommon for an appliance to break down in the first week or month. In almost all cases a warranty call was due to user or an installation error.
For example the worst case was when a washer's shipping bolts were not removed before use. These secure the drum against movement and if the washer is run with them still installed it will shake itself to death. This often led to broken dampers and cracked rear outer tubs. In the case of the latter the tub is $450-$550 and labour is very intensive, requiring 2-3 hours with an average labour rate of $300 or so. So it essentially wrote off the machine and it is not covered under the manufacturer's warranty.

Despite the installation manual, despite bright coloured bolts and warning tags, this happened all the time. Often people would pay someone cash to install their washer (so no way to seek recourse), it would shake violently, and they'd call in a warranty claim. Almost every week I had to tell someone that their brand new washer was a write off and that they had no warranty coverage since they didn't install or have it installed correctly.
Another issue was that in the past manufacturer's would waive user errors as a courtesy. Recently in the past few years to tighten costs manufacturers started to no longer waive these calls and would demand payment.
For example if a dishwasher isn't draining in the majority of cases it is due to an obstruction such as a piece of bone. This is considered user error and I was told to demand payment. Given that a customer had no way to determine if a not draining issue was due to a piece of bone or a mechanical problem you can imagine the confrontation that would follow. So technicians would often lie and write in their report that it was due to a loose wire, etc. I remember the year this change came about there was a sudden explosion in "loose wires", "improperly seated pumps", etc. This way the customer got the call covered, the appliance was working again, and the manufacturer was none the wiser. But understand that a manufacturer or technician can 100% demand payment for these calls.
Read the installation and owner's manual cover to cover. They're written in layman's terms and the majority of owners won't even read them at all. Don't ever pay someone cash under the table to install an appliance or do it yourself it you're handy and can read a manual.
Next up, extended warranties:
Extended warranties are often associated with stupid business decisions. If you get the right extended warranty they are most certainly not stupid.
Appliances today break down at an incredible rate. Parts have high markup and they are largely not interchangeable to discourage third parties from flooding the market with generic parts. In fact with older appliances that's exactly what happened; older Whirlpool top load washers used the same lid switch and today you can get generic lid switches for $10 when the OEM counterpart retails for $120 or more.
It only takes a single service call to pay off the cost of a 5 year extended warranty. Often I'd run into a customer who's dryer's idler pulley failed a few weeks after the 1 year manufacturer's warranty expired and you could imagine the look of regret on their faces when they saw the quote.
There are some things to watch out for with extended warranties which differentiate them from manufacturer's warranties which as mentioned earlier are "top to bottom":
1.) Yearly limits:
Some extended warranties have a yearly limit. In one case a customer's extended warranty only provided coverage for $250/year. I had to break the news that their repair would cost $800 so they would have to pay $550 to proceed. They had no idea their extended warranty had a limit and they were livid to hear it.
2.) "Cosmetic Parts":
This is a particularly insidious clause that defines "cosmetic parts" as "any part not directly related to the function of an appliance". This included fridge crisper drawers and shelves. So a customer's fridge's crisper drawer could be cracked in half, they can't close the door properly without removing it altogether, and it's not covered by their extended warranty. Fridge drawers, shelves, and other plastic interior parts break all the time and can cost hundreds to replace, plus labour. Make sure the extended warranty covers ALL parts.
3.) Food Spoilage:
Some dealers and extended warranties provide coverage for food spoilage if a fridge breaks down. The catch is that they will reimburse you a fixed amount via a gift card at a selected grocery store, usually to a limit of $250. For the most part this is a worthwhile deal. If your milk/meat/etc has been sitting at +13°C instead of the usual +3°C don't risk it and toss it out.
4.) Third Parties:
Dealers such as Best Buy sell extended warranties but it's through Geek Squad, but in reality it's from a company called Assurant. The problem is that this longer chain increases turn around time. Often I'd have to get Assurant to authorize a part which meant I could not arrive on the first call with the part I believed was most likely associated with their call. This is called "triaging" in the trade. Say a washer isn't draining - I would order a drain pump and did my best to arrive with it for the first call. Sometimes I couldn't because it would take too long to ship. If I don't need the pump, say because the not draining was due to a sock, I'd return the pump with no restocking fee.
With third party coverage it was harder to get the part and I'd often have to come back on a second call to install it. These are called "parts in" calls. But keep in mind that anything can cause any issue that can't be predicted such as faulty wiring, a faulty board, etc. It's always an educated guess and a game of percentages.
So try to find extended warranties from the dealer itself when possible.
5.) 5/10 Year Manufacturer's Warranties:
You'll sometimes see these labels on the front of an appliance. Read the fine print and you'll see that they only cover very specific parts and rarely if ever cover labour. For example a washer's 10 year drive warranty may cover the motor, belt, etc but won't cover labour. If there's a dryer stacked on top of the washer you'll need to pay for two technicians to take it down unless you do it yourself.
Another issue is that this may not necessarily address systemic design flaws. In the case of LG linear compressors they fail after 3 years and the warranty call would install the same faulty compressor only to fail again within another 3 years. Before you buy any appliance Google the appliance and add "lawsuits". This is why I tell all of my customers to avoid LG and Samsung at all costs. At my first company I was expressly cautioned against informing customers of lawsuits. This was one of the reasons I left the company to go off on my own.
6.) Lemon Clause:
A lemon clause will replace the appliance completely if 3 separate visits don't address the issue. In reality dealers and manufacturers will do everything in their power to resist exchanging a unit. It was madness; I did so many calls that clearly exceeded the cost of the appliance but I was told to keep going. We call this "Plato's Boat" in the trade. "Plato's Boat" is a thought experiment: Say two people have the exact same wooden boat each. Suppose they take a piece of their boat and exchange it for a piece on the other boat. At what point is it still their boat?
I've replaced entire washer tubs, control boards, and entire wiring harnesses over many calls with many irate customers wondering why the hell they won't just replace the entire appliance. If it was the same issue I was told to keep trying different fixes as it would be considered a different type of repair so as to not trigger the 3 visit clause.
Read the "lemon clause" carefully. There are many sneaky clauses that they will use to avoid exchanging or god forbid refunding an appliance.
7.) Credit Cards:
Some credit cards offer extended warranties if you purchase the appliance through them. These are often less expensive than other extended warranties and in my experience more generous.
I hope this helps, and hit me up if you have any further questions! With more and more people at home they're breaking their appliances at increasing rates. I've never been busier (I have extremely strict safety protocols including wearing PAPRs (Powered Air Purifying Respirators). I'm running into more and more desperate customers who can barely or cannot afford repairs on their appliances, and more and more customers who's appliance broke shortly after the 1 year manufacturer's warranty.
Extended warranties are often well worth it if you do your homework and read the fine print. Sure, you may go the entire 5 years without ever needing it, but your car has airbags that will almost never go off, right? But you'd sure as hell want them anyway.
Edit: Holy smokes, I wasn't expecting this level of response, thanks!
I am working at the moment and I will endeavor to reply to all of you once I get home today.
I am glad I was able to help others and share some insight into this industry. I was planning some more posts so I will follow up with a guide to buying appliances, how appliance repair works, and the trade itself. Stay tuned!
Edit 2: Wow, this is keeps going!
I am more than happy to keep answering your questions. For those of you asking about which appliances to get/avoid, I will be writing a followup post on this subject. Therefore I will no longer be replying to those questions in this thread.
Thanks for all the kind words!
Edit 3: NVM mods didn't approve my post on understanding appliance repair.
submitted by Babuiski to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

COVID19 Vaccine explained by a scientist for a nonscientist

If you followed the previous Covid19 post on here, I mentioned that I would do my best to explain why, if given the opportunity, pregnant and breast feeding women should, IMO, get the vaccine. This is an individual choice and I am only providing the information I used to make my decision to receive the vaccine while pregnant. A few points to make before I get into it, I have my PhD in the study of human disease but I am not an MD and you should listen to your OB/GP before making any medical decisions. My primary focus is in cancer genetics (aka I am not a virologist) but I have taken courses in virology, immunology, and infectious disease. I recently received my COVID19 vaccine and did a lot of research to decide if it was right for me. This post is to help those not in the scientific or medical community feel more confident and comfortable in their decision, regardless of what they decide.
  1. The covid19 vaccine is an RNA vaccine and CANNOT give you covid19 or covid19 symptoms (also see point 2) – I am going to briefly discuss 3 main types of vaccines (there are more than 3 but I’m not going to get into all of them) –
    1. Live attenuated vaccines – This is a fancy way of saying a weakened virus. Examples of this type are MMR, Chickenpox, Smallpox. Attenuated vaccines DO pose a risk to pregnant woman as there is a VERY small chance of getting the actual disease. They are not recommended for pregnant women unless there is a strongly likelihood that a pregnant woman can develop the disease without the vaccine. The benefit of an attenuated vaccine is the immunity is VERY strong. This is where there is some confusion with vaccines and pregnancy.
    2. Inactivated vaccines – These are ‘dead’ viruses that allow the immune system to know what to protect against with no risk of infection. Examples of this type are Flu (some, shot only), HepA, Polio. These are considered safe as they cannot cause the disease. However, they often require follow up shots.
    3. Subunit vaccines – These take one defining component of a virus (ie if someone saw only the trunk of an elephant they would know it was an elephant without the entire thing) and expose the immune system to this component. The immune system learns to equate this component with the virus. Components can be proteins, sugars, DNA, or RNA. Examples of this are the COVID19 vaccine (RNA), HPV/Gardasil (protein), Flu also (DNA), HepB (DNA).
  2. How does the RNA vaccine work? RNA is the instruction manual for building proteins in the body. Proteins carry out EVERYTHING in all living organisms (ie insulin is a protein…literally proteins do everything…google it). Specifically, the RNA in the COVID19 vaccine codes for a surface protein (we will call this a ‘Spike protein’). When the spike protein is attached to live virus, it allows the virus to get into your cells and replicate (the replication is what makes you sick, not the spike protein). The spike protein on it’s own is nonfunctioning. Think of it as a random key without a lock…on its own it serves no purpose. When you get the vaccine, the RNA aka instruction manual is read by your own cells (RNA is the same language for all living things) and your cells will make the protein. Once the protein is made, the RNA (aka vaccine) is completely destroyed and no longer exists (this applies to point 6). The COVID19 protein is now in your body and your body looks at it and determines it has no function/it does not belong. To dispose of foreign proteins, your body creates antibodies (another type of protein which act as the janitors of your body) to get rid of useless/foreign proteins. This is a very natural process and happens ALL the time (think allergies). This is what is known as an immune response. Immune responses sometimes mimic the characteristics of being sick. You may get mild cold symptoms but it is not from getting a cold…this is your body ramping up it’s “cleaning” process to get rid of foreign/useless proteins. You cannot, I repeat, you cannot get covid or covid symptoms from the vaccine. Any symptoms are just your body “cleaning up” what doesn’t belong and is a very natural process. After cleaning, the body now recognizes anything with this spike protein and knows that it does not belong and will get rid of it. Think of this as showing someone who has never seen a deer before a set of deer antlers and saying “if you see an animal in the backyard with these, it is a deer”. The spike protein is the antler.
  3. (The vaccine should protect against mutated strains (like the one in Europe). The spike protein is pretty important to the infection process of the virus which means it doesn’t often get mutated (due to the major evolutionary disadvantage this would cause). If it does get mutated…it can’t infect and is a moot point. Therefore, the vaccine should be protective against multiple strains because it will recognize this spike protein.
  4. The research and clinical trials were not rushed and steps were not skipped. There are several factors that play into why this vaccine was developed so quickly. The first was the joint effort of the research community to sequence the entire genome of the virus (aka get the DNA and RNA instructions) and do preclinical studies. In normal circumstances, research is somewhat collaborative but mostly competitive. When the pandemic hit the entire research community came together to study and publish findings. So much so that at my university, anyone not in a virus lab (cancer, neuro, immuno, you name it) volunteered as "extra hands", donated resources, and lended equipment...this was, IMO, unprecedented. All major journals stopped publishing anything other than COVID19 related research - this results in more eyes, more ideas, more work. Next, all research funding shifted to covid research. The two biggest hold ups in pre-clinical and clinical trials are money and trial volunteers. Both of these were ABUNDANT during the development of the vaccine. On the safety front, the FDA has a very strict process of approval, multiple phases of clinical trials with A LOT of safety checks, and review boards made up of scientists, clinicians, and biostatisticians. Everything is peer-reviewed by scientists and clinicians with no vested interest. Although most research is funded by the government, the government plays a very little role in the *actual* science and development of research. Furthermore, within the scientific community, overstating or misrepresentation data is a major ethical violation. Misrepresentation of data is so *strongly* discouraged and against the ethics of science that there are SERIOUS ramifications for even benign issues of lying (google Jose Baselga disclosure...the MD did not disclose his financial interest in a company he was doing research for and had to resign from MSK). Trust me when I say every scientist, director, and researcher had their eyes on the data and development of this vaccine...anything that seemed out of place would immediately be discussed and corrected. An additional note about RNA vaccines. This technology was not rushed and has been in development for 10+ years. This development provided all the corner stones for developing the COVID19 vaccine once the genome was sequenced (which as discussed earlier happened so quickly due to the unprecedented collaboration of scientists)
  5. Why is there hesitation with pregnant women (note: this includes lactating women but for simplicity sake I will just say pregnant)? When a clinical trial is designed for FDA approval, there are major ethical considerations. Pregnant women and children cannot be included in clinical studies unless there is a clear justification (which you need to write up in your proposal). These are heavily critiqued and only considered when the treatment heavily benefits pregnant women or children...ie. If 90% of pregnant women could get COVID19. Otherwise, inclusion of these demographics is usually denied. Because of this, most clinical trials specifically exclude them. Once the clinical trial is run and the data is collected, there is *no* data on pregnant woman (note: for the Pfizer trial several women found out they were pregnant while on the trial and no complications were observed...however this is considered anecdotal). Therefore, LEGALLY, the FDA cannot CLAIM it is safe for pregnant woman (because they have no proof). The FDA is very very very by the books and states only the facts they have present). However, because of what is discussed above, doctors and scientists will confidently encourage pregnant women receive the vaccine because...science. Same point for lactating women.
  6. The vaccine does not "change your DNA" and does not remain in your body 10 years after...COVID19 might. As discussed before, the biological process of an RNA vaccine does not change your DNA or your cells, it simply exposes your body to something. There is no way for the components of the vaccine can alter your DNA. You have a higher chance of altering your DNA laying out in the sun (re: carcinogens) than you do from the vaccine. Do you know what can change your DNA? Viruses. We don't know enough about COVID19 to know how it behaves but a perfect example is....HPV. HPV causes cancer because the virus specifically targets a gene (DNA) in the human genome known as TP53. When this gene (DNA) gets disrupted, it can cause A LOT of cancers. Viruses affect the area of exposure. So women who contract HPV are more prone to cervical cancer because the virus is more likely to disrupt the TP53 gene in this tissue. This is why the Gardasil shot is SO effective in preventing cervical cancers...because it prevents the infection of HPV (side note: Parents should vaccinate both their daughters AND sons with the Gardasil shot). We don't know the long term ramifications from the COVID19 virus but the way viruses inherently lead to changes in our DNA and may have long term consequences for people infected with the virus.
  7. Are there people who are at greater risk? Yes. People who have extensive allergies, have had previous allergic reactions to vaccines, boosters, or shots, or may have dysfunctional immune responses. However, these are not inherent to the COVID vaccine but rather all vaccines. These are things to discuss with your GP and OB.
Thank you for coming to my TEDtalk errr novel.....also feel free to contribute to the list.
submitted by WMeade929 to BabyBumps [link] [comments]

Overhead phone detection cameras are on their way to ACT roads

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7090003/caught-on-camera-10m-funding-to-capture-act-drivers-on-phones/?cs=14225
The government will set aside $10 million in funding for high resolution cameras which detect drivers using mobile phones in next week's ACT Budget, as part of its longer-term "Vision Zero" road safety strategy.
The budget allocation is seen as sufficient to engage a supplier to deliver, install and maintain the cameras, as well as cover on-costs such as the staffing, associated information and awareness activities, and information and communications technology upgrades.
Confirmation of the camera roll-out comes as ACT Policing released data showing 1008 drivers were fined for using their mobile devices illegally last year, while 190 others received cautions.
However, traffic police privately conceded this represented only a very small proportion of the offending which occurred across the territory every day.
In NSW, the cameras have been in operation since December 1, 2019. Both mobile and fixed detection cameras were available from the manufacturer Acusensus, with the mobile unit mounted on a folding overhead gantry which could can be transported from one location to another.
Former ACT Road Safety Minister Shane Rattenbury said late last year NSW had done "most of the heavy lifting" in regards to the cameras' proof of concept, and this would make it relatively easy to duplicate this process in the ACT.
As occurred during the roll-out period in NSW, there would be a three-month "grace" period for ACT offenders during which warning letters would be issued and no fines or demerit points deducted. In NSW, more than 100,000 drivers were detected during the trial period.
The stipulations of the ACT government for the camera system were:
As occurred in NSW, changes to the Road Transport Act were needed to shift the onus of proof to the defendant.
Under the NSW amendment, the presumption was "any object that is held by (or resting on) a driver of a motor vehicle in a photograph taken by an approved camera, is a mobile phone for the purposes of a mobile phone use offence".
The cameras were cost-neutral to lease because of the income they generated.
ACT Transport Minister Chris Steel said road safety cameras used in conjunction with police enforcement would "play a critical role in addressing high-risk behaviours on our roads".
In the ACT, the offence carries a minimum fine of $480 and three demerit points. If the driver is using the mobile for social media or to surf the internet, the fine goes up to $588 with four demerit points.
"The penalties are significant, and reflect the risk that driver distraction poses to the community," Minister Steel said.
"Every accident that results in serious injury or death is a tragedy and costs the community in some way; including through heartache to family and friends, loss in productivity to our city's economy and increased pressure on our health system."
The detection cameras to be rolled out in the ACT were focused down at an angle which allowed them to "look" through the windscreen, and could screen up to three lanes of traffic.
The cameras take three infra-red photos and feed them through an algorithm which builds an "offence score" using artificial intelligence.
submitted by Rokekor to canberra [link] [comments]

🚨 In-Depth DD on $UAVS drone company + strategic acquisition + why it reflects Ark Invest Big Ideas 2021 + latest Amazon speculation

🚨 In-Depth DD on $UAVS drone company + strategic acquisition + why it reflects Ark Invest Big Ideas 2021 + latest Amazon speculation
What's AgEagle?
AgEagle is engaged in creating drones for commercial use. Founded in 2010, AgEagle is one of the nation’s leading commercial drone technology, services and solutions provider. Focused on delivering the metrics, tools and strategies necessary to define and implement drone-enabled solutions that solve important problems and provide new perspective on achieving critical objectives. Keep in mind this is not only a manufacturing company for drones: it's also into the leasing, testing, delivery, and agriculture business.
https://ageagle.com/drone-solutions/ I suggest you check their official website for more information.

proprietary drones
'Increasing demand for faster delivery in the transport and logistics industry is fueling capital investments in drone delivery initiatives across several sectors, including delivery of consumer packages, food, healthcare supplies and heavy cargo, among other payloads.
Since 2019, AgEagle has been actively engaged in the custom manufacturing and assembly of drones used for the testing and refining of a world leading ecommerce company’s commercial drone small package delivery vehicles, systems and operations. As a result, we are uniquely positioned to collaborate with other organizations seeking to activate and accelerate adoption of end-to-end drone delivery solutions to drive new and differentiated value creation in their business-to-business or business-to-consumer operations.

https://preview.redd.it/75qsl1oeaue61.png?width=2498&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f785c7de9c2878e618e639a0ba47f81d7e81be5
I will try to keep it short, but there are many points that need to be discussed about this company, since I think it's very well positioned to be a leader in this sector. Let me explain why:
The global commercial drone market size is anticipated to reach USD 129.23 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 56.5% over the forecast period, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The market is characterized by the growing application scope spanning a wide range of sectors such as construction, photography, real estate, and agriculture.With their capability to reach places that humans and other machines cannot, and their onboard computer controlled cameras, commercial Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) hold enormous potential to help farmers to monitor crops, law enforcement authorities to sharpen surveillance activities, and to support insurance agents in accessing damaged assets. Drone hardware has also become more affordable to produce and purchase over the years. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/commercial-drone-market

https://preview.redd.it/hz2ycwzyaue61.png?width=1679&format=png&auto=webp&s=839ce0b91aafad7c37b17d8860230947e1a26ea1
Why did I highlight this ? Because AgEagle is currently the best company offering such service for agriculture demand. 'Since our founding in 2010, AgEagle has earned distinction as one of the Agriculture industry’s leading pioneers of technologically advanced drones and aerial imagery-based data collection and analytics solutions for the precision and sustainable farming markets. We are trusted to help the world’s growers proactively assess and manage the health of commercial crops, reduce the chemicals in produced foods and products and preserve and protect natural resources. https://ageagle.com/agriculture/ ​Through the introduction of our solution, HempOverview, AgEagle represents the first agriculture technology company to bring to market an advanced Agtech solution that is designed to meet the unique complexities of the emerging American hemp industry and the needs and demands of its key stakeholders.

https://preview.redd.it/tmho66plbue61.png?width=2471&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1a588d8c4d23ff2fa0563068850b09a26ec6768
https://ageagle.com/agriculture/hemp-overview/ Our innovative HempOverview platform elegantly marries the simplicity of a web-based data collection and management app with the power of map-based aerial imaging technology. State administrators and growers are now able to connect, share, maintain proactive communications and collaborate on developing best practices for hemp cultivation registration, compliance and enforcement. Benefits include lower program management costs, new revenue channel development, real- or near real-time remote oversight of hemp fields, and much more
.https://ageagle.com/cashing-in-on-the-budding-u-s-hemp-growing-market/


https://preview.redd.it/xysumvzzbue61.png?width=2491&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac13eaf1b1124f8980c18610d4a718242eb1b15f
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/01/22/1973839/0/en/The-global-industrial-hemp-market-size-is-projected-to-grow-from-USD-4-6-billion-in-2019-to-USD-26-6-billion-by-2025-recording-a-compound-annual-growth-rate-CAGR-of-34-0.html

https://preview.redd.it/shz4cq7kcue61.png?width=2268&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7a84b4d07a3d065e35d10aa0a26ade9a4e09170
“After having largely managed registration, oversight and reporting of the 2020 hemp planting season manually, we recognized that we needed to adopt a more advanced technological solution to better streamline our registration and oversight processes moving forward. To that end, we believe that the HempOverview platform best serves the needs of the state and our farmers. We are very excited for the 2021 season.” https://ageagle.com/ageagle-aerial-systems-announces-state-of-iowa-chooses-hempoverview-for-managing-registration-and-oversight-of-hemp-crops/ There are several articles about different states that intend to use AgEagle HempOverview, since they currently offer the best service in this market.
What should we be excited about?
Well, AgEagle recently made two, in my opinion, BIG moves towards leadership in this sector and I will briefly explain why it should make you excited about it. First, they partnered with Valqari : Valqari has created the only universal, standardized, safe and secure drone landing station that protects people, property and packages. The seven and a half-feet high Drone Delivery Station offers a convenient landing station with six separate storage units to accommodate multiple drone and traditional postal deliveries or pickups. The station also maintains a digital chain of custody throughout the entire delivery process to give users peace of mind knowing their packages are secure until retrieved. This entirely automated process provides communication technology that authenticates and verifies every delivery while also eliminating any potential interference that may occur during the final stage of drone delivery. https://ageagle.com/ageagle-aerial-systems-partners-with-valqari-to-manufacture-drone-delivery-stations/
Second, they acquired MicaSense: MicaSense has been at the forefront of advanced drone sensor development since its founding in 2014, having formed integration partnerships with several leading fixed wing and multicopter drone manufacturers, including DraganFly™, senseFly™, Quantum-Systems and Wingtra, among others. MicaSense’s patented, high precision thermal and multispectral sensors serve the aerial mapping and analytics needs of the agriculture market, and are well positioned to address applications in advanced inspection in the energy and insurance sectors and autonomous flight safety for package delivery, among other solutions. MicaSense’s high performance proprietary products, including Altum™, RedEdge-MX™, RedEdge-MX Blue™ and Atlas Flight™, have global distribution in 70 countries. https://ageagle.com/ageagle-aerial-systems-announces-acquisition-of-micasense-for-23-million/
AgEagle’s Chief Executive Officer J. Michael Drozd stated, “Joining forces with MicaSense will empower AgEagle to drive true innovation and advancements of commercial drone systems and solutions for a number of high growth industry segments."
Leadership is really solid. What caught my eye was Matt Martin, the Vice President of Operations. https://ageagle.com/leaders/matt-martin/ 'Matt brings AgEagle over 30+ years of manufacturing experience in the aerospace industry, with emphasis on program engineering leadership and concentration on commercial and military aircraft, large scale system integration and quality systems controls, and compliance with complex regulatory requirements. Prior to AgEagle, he served as Vice President of Airbus Programs at Spirit AeroSystems, where he orchestrated the vision of Airbus Programs worldwide. He was originally recruited to Spirit AeroSystems in 2013 as Director of Product Design Engineering before being promoted to Program Director of the A350-900 Section 15 program. In this capacity, he was a key leader in the program’s final certification, entry into service and successful turnarounds in delivery, quality and financial performance. Prior to Spirit AeroSystems, Matt served as Vice President at Hawker Beechcraft Defense Company, where he spearheaded the execution of the Joint Primary Aircraft Training Systems contract for the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy with an overall value of approximately $1+ billion. Earlier in his career, Martin rose through the ranks at Boeing, holding senior leadership roles on key programs, including the International Space Station Program, 767 TankeTransport Program and the Air Force One Maintenance, Modifications and Upgrades Program. Matt is the proud recipient of the Silver Snoopy, a prestigious award bestowed by NASA on individuals who have significantly contributed to the human space flight program to ensure flight safety and mission success.
I don't want to sound boring so I'm leaving a link for everything, so you can check yourself and go more in depth on the subject.
If you check Ark Big Ideas for 2021 https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK–Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf you'll see what the future is expecting from the Drone Business.

https://preview.redd.it/myoutgx9gue61.png?width=2493&format=png&auto=webp&s=60eb3f4dbc98ef43a7be2c8c96e46b8ff4cd4689

https://preview.redd.it/5em4ln5cgue61.png?width=2493&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccd717dd57b5a1fb6fc90416975751b7ed95e7bf
ARK believes that in the not-too-distant future drones will deliver our packages, food, and even people quicker and more conveniently than ever before. Drones are likely to transform shopping behavior, reduce travel time, and save lives. https://www.urbanairmobilitynews.com/market-analysis/drones-and-evtols-part-of-new-ark-invest-arkx-space-exploration-fund/ “Orbital Aerospace Companies are companies that launch, make, service, or operate platforms in the orbital space, including satellites and launch vehicles. Suborbital Aerospace Companies are companies that launch, make, service, or operate platforms in the suborbital space, including drones, air taxis and electric aviation vehicles.”
I left this E-Commerce and Delivery slides last on purpose . Remember Micasense? The company acquired by AgEagle for 23m? Well, this is just speculation, but ex Micasense CEO Gabriel Torres is currently working for Amazon as a Technical Program Manager for Amazon Air . https://twitter.com/DaTrade33/status/1354567365988556803?s=20
I know people in the past said this partnership was never going to happen, but this acquisition is different and it happened just 5 days ago.
more connections: https://twitter.com/DaTrade33/status/1356066923742523393?s=20 shoutout to DaTrade33 for the insight. If you like to speculate, feel free to research more.
AgEagle institutional ownership: https://fintel.io/so/us/uavs
https://twitter.com/StocksPokestatus/1354096324468084737?s=20 shout out to @stockspoker for this key insight
https://preview.redd.it/empx1y5okue61.png?width=1107&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0aeab5afb9bd8c9c0f2ffc537de1d8c7b57bcfe

Latest third quarter results: https://ageagle.com/ageagle-aerial-systems-reports-record-third-quarter-2020-financial-results/

  • Gross profit margin on sales improved to 43% from 21% for the three months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019, respectively. Likewise, gross profit margin on sales for the comparable nine month reporting periods in 2020 and 2019 rose to 46% from 20%, respectively.
  • Revenues for three-month reporting period ended September 30, 2020 increased significantly to a record of $750,000 compared to $42,000 for the comparable three month period in 2019. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, revenues increased to a record of $1.2 million compared to $108,000 reported for the nine months in the prior year period. The notable increase in revenues was primarily driven by follow-on purchase orders for manufacturing and assembly of drones and related package delivery equipment for the Company’s largest customer.
  • Net loss for the three months ended September 30, 2020 totaled $579,000 compared to $563,000 in net loss for the same three months in 2019. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, net loss was $2.2 million compared to $1.9 million in the prior year nine-month period. Overall, the increase in net losses were due to higher operating costs relating to the shifts in our long-term growth and business expansion strategies.
  • After factoring non-cash accounting charges relating to our financing activities, the net loss attributable to our common stockholders improved to $579,000 from $604,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019, respectively. After factoring non-cash accounting charges for the comparable nine month reporting periods in 2020 and 2019, net loss attributable to the Company’s common stockholders was $11.3 million compared to $2.0 million, respectively.
  • As of September 30, 2020, the Company’s balance sheet reflected cash of $24.7 million compared to $718,000 as of December 31, 2019. The Company had no long-term debt and total stockholders’ equity increased to $28.1 million compared to $4.3 million as of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, respectively. The material strengthening of the balance sheet was largely due to the successful closing of equity financings completed in the first half of 2020.
Disclosure: I do not own shares yet, I plan on opening a LONG position soon accumulating day by day.
🚨 Keep in mind this is just speculation, I'm just trying to connect the dots. I try my best as always to bring useful informations out, I invite you to do your own research and be aware of all the risks. Huge upside, huge downside. YOU ARE THE BEST JUDGE ON YOUR NEXT MOVE . Don't let me or other posters influence your decisions. I'd like to hear your thoughts, let me know also about the negative aspects related to this stock since I'm keen to learn more everyday. Thanks. 🚨
Pacho Out
submitted by pachocabrera to trakstocks [link] [comments]

Superstore Nanaimo still has mask less employees even after confirmed cases

Went to Superstore this morning and there were at least 1 employee just wearing a face shield with no bottom. In every single test related to droplets these perform terribly. So bad in fact that they do not count as a substitute for a proper mask.
BC CDC quote:
The design of the face shield does not necessarily protect other people as it may not block all of your droplets or spray, which can escape from the bottom or sides of the shield. The BC Centre for Disease Control does not recommend the use of face shields as a substitute for masks.
Your employer may ask you to wear a face shield as extra protection. The face shield should not replace other prevention measures such as physical distancing, hand hygiene, barriers, and non-medical masks.
Worksafe BC on face shields:
Members of the public are advised to wear a mask, defined in the order as a medical or non-medical mask that covers the nose and mouth. Face shields are not a substitute for a mask, as there is an opening below the mouth. Employers are advised to review selecting and using masks in non-health care settings for guidance on appropriate masks for workers.
BC Human Rights on mask exemption accommodation:
This does not apply if someone is able to wear a mask but chooses not to as a matter of personal preference.
I strongly recommend that duty bearers proactively develop options to accommodate those who cannot wear a mask or face covering. Some examples of accommodations include: • offering curbside pickup, which may allow a person to receive a retail service even if, because of their disability, they are unable to wear the mask required to enter a store • determining whether an employee can work remotely • increasing ventilation in enclosed spaces

So before anyone says "they have an exemption" I am not arguing that I am saying that even if that is true they should not be allowed to risk the health of others with their inability to wear a mask. These employees could work from home potentially or be accommodated in other ways. Their right (if applicable) to not wear a mask should not endanger the lives of others
In the meantime I suggest everyone avoid Superstore until the management and staff start to take this more seriously.
submitted by throwaway13993394 to nanaimo [link] [comments]

[Spoilers Main] Daenerys, Tyrion, and the fate of King's Landing

Since the ending of season 8 of Thrones, I've been thinking about the ending to Daenerys' character, and how it may be different in the books. From what I've mostly read (on here and elsewhere), it's pretty much accepted that Daenerys' turn to madness and the burning of King's Landing was something that George told Dan and Dave would happen in the books, and that the ending doesn't work in Thrones due to a lack of set-up. But I've always found the ending to be unsatisfactory on a conceptual level too, no matter how good the possible set-up may be in the books. So after a lot of theorising, I've come up with a possible alternative series of events that could happen in the books that - I feel - would be more satisfactory.
(Apologies in advance if any of these points have been discussed in detail before and I'm just re-treading old ground.)
To start with, I want to go over the reasons why I don't believe Dany burning King's Landing is a fitting end for her. There's a lot of points I want to make here, so I'll try to be brief.
Dany's characterisation throughout the series so far has not exactly convinced me that she could become a villain. Sure, she can be violent at times (but never unjustly) but so can other characters in our story - not least of all Jon Snow (my personal favourite), who is quite prone to violent outbursts at times. And yet, I've not seen people criticise Jon's violence as foreshadowing of madness or an "evil" nature. I think this is indicative of double standards within the fanbase - people can forgive Jaime for throwing a child out of a tower, forgive the Hound for cutting down the butcher's boy, and appreciate that these characters are complex, that they aren't simply black-and-white. But Dany crucifies slavers? Evil. I hesitate to call this double standard sexist, but it definitely exists, to be sure, and I think it affects how some readers view characters and their actions. If I had to guess, this double standard emerges from the tendency of writers depicting women using violence in fiction to be an act of evil - so when it's done in a just manner, we scrutinise it more than we would if it were, say, Jon doing the same act. Indeed, throughout the books, Dany's characterisation is the opposite of cruel. She is shown to be compassionate, idealistic, selfless even (at least towards the innocent and disenfranchised). A prime example is when, in ADWD, Dany goes into the crowds of Astapori dying of the bloody flux and personally tending to their needs herself - despite the obvious risk to her own health. I also don't see Dany as a careless figure - true, she can be impulsive at times, but when making big decisions she usually has a lot of self-doubt (not exactly indicative of carelessness). I bring this up as a theory I've seen a few times claims Dany will burn King's Landing by accident (i.e., burn a specific part but accidentally ignite the caches of wildfire beneath all of King's Landing). If carelessness was a major part of Dany's character, I'd be inclined to agree, but as it stands I'm not convinced by this theory either.
The next thing I want to discuss is Dany's purpose within the overall narrative of A Song of Ice and Fire. The way I see it, Dany is one of three characters that follow the traditional monomyth (or Hero's Journey), alongside Bran and Jon Snow. I don't believe either Bran or Jon to be (or to be on the path to) villainy. Darker paths, perhaps, but still heroic at their core. It wouldn't make sense for Dany, with her parallels to Jon and Bran, to be the only one to become evil when the stories of all three follow the same basic narrative structure. The way I see it, Dany has been set up as a messianic figure - a saviour. With the Long Night descending back on Westeros, Dany's role will not be to defeat the Others (that's Bran's purpose in my opinion), but to provide safety and protection to the smallfolk of Westeros - a kind of motherly (or Mhysa) role. This role becomes rather complicated if you're also responsible for murdering a good chunk of them (as yes, I do believe the destruction of King's Landing to take place before the Long Night, as opposed to the show. It's just neater storytelling).
Thematically, a mad and villainous Dany would also not make much sense. One of the major themes of Dany's story is that children can be better than their parents and that they can right the wrongs of their forefathers. Whilst it’s difficult for her to accept, Dany has slowly realised the types of men Aerys and Viserys were, and she is determined to be better than them – to prove to the world that a Targaryen can be more than Fire and Blood (regarding her final chapter in ADWD, I see her thoughts as the musings of a young girl who is lost, delirious, looking for direction, and wracked with self-doubt, and not any sort of significant soul-searching. I suppose only time will tell, though). It’s one of the reasons she’s so obsessed with trying to liberate the slavers in the most peaceful way possible. Now, Daenerys doesn’t necessarily have to achieve her goals and she can fail – but to do so would be nihilistic. Daenerys is a heroic figure, an empowering character, and a symbol of hope. For her story to end in failure would be suggesting that these thing's are not true, and would be incredibly nihilistic (and no, George is not a nihilist).
A common claim I've seen before is that Dany becoming a villain works because it's subversive, but... didn't season 8 teach us that subverting expectations for the sake of being surprising is not good writing? What's more, however, Dany becoming a villain is not as subversive as some people think. Stories of fallen heroes are not that rare. In fact, I'd argue that as a hero, Dany is more subversive, given her origin story is essentially that of a villain - a child born of rape and incest, with an abusive and traumatic childhood, sold into slavery before coming into her own power that takes the forms of dragons, traditionally seen as destructive and evil. For her to have this story yet be a hero is far more interesting in my eyes. I think it's also worth noting that mad villain Daenerys reinforces a number of problematic and sexist stereotypes within fiction, including; powerful women in positions of power being evil, women being less emotionally stable than men and therefore less fit to rule, promiscuous and sexually active women being seen as evil, infertility driving women to madness, et cetera...
I'm worried this post is getting over-long, so I'm going to move onto the second part. Suffice to say, if I haven't convinced you that it's out of character for Dany to burn King's Landing yet, I don't think I'll be able to. What I want to argue now is the case for an alternative character that I believe will burn down King's Landing instead of Dany. Because I do believe it will happen and that George told Dan and Dave who it would be. I just think that the showrunners were forced to change the culprit. And no, I don't believe it will be Cersei. Nor Aegon, or Jon Connington, or even Arya (which I've seen a few people suggest at times). Who we're looking for is a villainous character, that has a motive to burn King's Landing, but who couldn't (for whatever reason) do so in the show. Cersei was the show's final, major villain, so I think that rules her out for the books (again, assuming it's not just going to be Dany anyway). And I think that leaves us with one major candidate.
Tyrion Lannister.
There's been much and more discussion regarding Tyrion becoming a villain on here, so I don't think I'll go through interviews where George claims Tyrion is a villain, or villainous things Tyrion does in ADWD, or anything like that. I'm just going to assume everyone is on page with Tyrion becoming (at least to some extent) a villain. Good? Good.
I want to start by going over Tyrion's character arc and themes. Like Dany, Tyrion is obsessed with his poor relationship with his family (and particularly Tywin). It's something that defines him and his motivations in many of his actions. But unlike Dany, Tyrion's obsession does not exist from a selfless desire to show people his family can do good. It comes from a selfish desire to distance himself from the people he despises. As such, this obsession manifests itself negatively rather than productively, bringing out Tyrion's darker side. Whereas Dany's relationship with her family and who she is provides her with the motivation to do good, for Tyrion it presents his fatal flaw. Because, try as he might, Tyrion is (as Genna says) Tywin's son. Like Tywin, Tyrion is obsessed with his reputation. And like Tywin with the Reynes and Tarbecks, Tyrion will, eventually, stop at nothing to bring destruction unto those that have ruined his reputation and have mocked him. His family - and the denizens of King's Landing. And if innocent lives might be lost in exacting this revenge? Well, ask yourself; would Tywin have cared?
So Tyrion has a motive to destroy King's Landing (especially if it is still being ruled by Cersei). What's more, he's one of the few characters with a great knowledge of the wildfire beneath King's Landing. And I think this is important - the city will be destroyed by wildfire, not dragon fire. It's arguably the series' biggest Chekhov's gun. In other words, you wouldn't establish that a city sits above tons of gunpowder, only to then drop an atomic bomb on it. And in many ways, it' somewhat fitting for this to be the conclusion of Tyrion's role as a villain. Tyrion's embrace of villainy arguably begins after the empty on his life during the Battle of the Blackwater, where he first made use of the wildfire against the enemies of King's Landing and his family. For it all to come full circle with him using it against them fits far better than anything relating to Dany burning King's Landing, in my opinion.
Fundamentally, Tyrion is a far darker character than Daenerys. Where Dany burning the city is nihilistic, Tyrion doing so is a tragedy - much more in line with the rest of the series. And it's fitting, in a cruel and ironic sense, for the people of King's Landing to have always seen Tyrion as a monster (even when he was there hero), and in doing so - in mocking Tyrion and bringing out the worst in him - he becomes their monster. And then destroys them. In many ways, one could argue they were responsible for their own fate.
(EDIT: I forgot to mention why I think the show changed this twist and gave it to Daenerys. To be brief, Tyrion was the show's most popular character, and I think Dan and Dave knew that. As they shifted towards making Thrones a more accessible show, I think they made the decision to keep Tyrion as a good guy, hence why they cut his more villainous behaviour in ADWD from the show. However in doing so, they would have needed to give his twist to another protagonist, and Daenerys is the second best candidate, at least amongst the series' heroes.)
It's tragic but it has more to say than Dany's senseless, out-of-character destruction. And all thing's considered, I think it makes for the better story.
submitted by FavWorst_Humbug to asoiaf [link] [comments]

The Wood County study is an example of how contact tracing in schools is not reliable

We have all heard the claim that Covid-19 transmission is low in school.
Recently, the CDC released a study of 17 schools in Wood County, Wisconsin. The study found that "with proper mitigation strategies, K–12 schools might be capable of opening for in-person learning with minimal in-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2."
I have a few problems with this study.
To begin with, the schools selected for the study seem to be the best-case scenario. The schools in the study:
So you have a predominantly white population with low rates of poverty, which means you have a population that are more likely to be able to practice social distancing outside of school, and are more likely to keep their students home from school if they are sick. You also have a population that are at a lower risk compared to people of color.
I also have issues with how the data for this study was collected. The study:
The report itself admits that contact tracing "is less accurate than is genomic sequencing" and that the survey data is "subject to recall and social desirability biases". The researchers did not verify the data they gathered at all. They claim that there were no instances of child-to-adult transmission in the schools, but admit that "the prevalence of asymptomatic spread could not be determined" since they didn't do any systematic covid testing.
This gets to a problem with how we are determining covid spread in schools. The way covid safety protocols and contact tracing in schools have been set up has made it so that cases contracted in schools may be excluded from the data.
If you:
  1. Space everyone six feet apart and require everyone to wear masksAND
  2. Exclude anyone who was six feet away from a covid-positive person as a "close contact"
you essentially eliminate everyone around that person from being considered as having contracted covid from that person. Add on the fact that:
  1. Contact tracing is being conducted by school administrators
  2. Compliance with the mask-wearing and social distancing policies is self-reported by the schools
you are creating a scenario where it is very likely that, even in cases where people were not complying with social distancing, they may still be excluded as having possibly contracted covid in school. You are also making it impossible to verify whether or not the social distancing and mask wearing is even working.
The study makes no attempt to account for the pressure on schools to demonstrate that they are providing a safe environment, the pressure on elected officials to show that they are being effective at eliminating spread, the pressure on teachers to show that they are doing a good job of enforcing school policies, or even just the basic fact that people are more likely to follow rules when they know they are being observed.
For all we know, every single person in this study was just lying. We have no proof that the administrators conducting the contact tracing were being honest, because the researchers didn't verify their information with independent data.

The study found 191 total cases, and attributed seven of them (3.7%) to spread within the schools (191 cases among 5,530 persons, or 3,453 cases per 100,000, or 1 in 20). They compared this to rate of spread in the broader Wood County community (cumulative = 5,466 per 100,000, weekly 34 to 1,189 per 100,000) and determined that spread was significantly lower in the schools.
But again, they didn't conduct any systematic covid testing and relied on self-reported data, so we have no way of knowing if this is true.
So, the study finds that 3.7% of the school population contracted covid in the schools. It compares this with the 7%-40% of positive test results in the broader community, but does not compare it with the percentage of total community members who tested positive (a total of 3,393 new cases were reported during the time of this study, which equals 4.6% of the total population). So they are comparing the percent of positive test results in the broader community with the percent of the total school population that tested positive. They are comparing two different types of data.
The study also did not distinguish rate of spread among students vs teachers, when comparing to the wider community, despite admitting that children are more likely to be asymptomatic carriers (and thus less likely to be tested for covid, which again, was NOT required by the school). Of the 654 staff members in the study, 58 tested positive for covid. This is a rate of 8.8% among staff members.
Of the 4,876 students, 133 tested positive. This is 2.7%.
And, I will emphasize again, the study did not systematically test subjects for covid so we have no way of knowing if this is the actual number of positive cases.

I do not understand why this data, which was gathered with unreliable methods from a population that is not representative of the broader country, is being used to determine policy.
TL;DR: The Wood County study is bad, and it also shows how contact tracing methods are potentially excluding cases of in-school transmission from data.

Edit: formatting
submitted by TalkToPlantsNotCops to Teachers [link] [comments]

BCRX the Embarrassment of Riches

BCRX the Embarrassment of Riches
The aim of this article is to sum up all the relevant DueDiligence of the company in one single article. After discussing the value of each drug in the pipeline and giving them the fair value they deserve, we come to the conclusion that BCRX should currently be valued at $184.77. If you are looking for some extensive and detailed DD on the company, i think this is the article you look for, and I highly suggest you keep reading it. In case you find the given information useful, i encourage you to support the article in order to reach more people and rise awareness of how undervalued BCRX is.
If you want to dig deeper, check out u/bio9999 and the community BCRX, some of the informartion related with Galidesivir directly come from bio9999's posts.

  • About Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. BCRX, is a commercial-stage drug developer headquartered in Durham, North Carolina, that focuses on developing oral therapeutics for rare diseases.
https://preview.redd.it/h14qnmmii1g61.png?width=352&format=png&auto=webp&s=3be0a507d364bdbeeb4c4a9a2e781890858902f6


  • Unique staff team
The company was founded in 1996 and is currently led by Jon P. Stonehouse CEO, a renowned pharmaceutical executive with over 20 years of thought leadership. Stonehouse previously served as the Senior Vice President of Corporate Development at Merck. Among his numerous accomplishments, Stonehouse was responsible for the game-changing acquisition of Serono S.A in 2007, the largest biotechnology company in Europe at the time.
What makes Jon Stonehouse a unique CEO is the dedication he has towards patients through his commitment to working faster in order to bring life-saving rare disease therapeutics to patient populations around the world. His passion is further substantiated by the note he had pasted on his monitor during the 2021 JPM Healthcare Conference
https://preview.redd.it/9f8th8iji1g61.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb8376b619942b56af61eec34bde9262ecdcc19c


  • Institutional ownership
Apart from having a stellar management team, what prospective retail investors should also pay close attention to is BioCryst’s rockstar institutional investor syndicate, which includes both generalist industry stalwarts such as State Street/BlackRock and sector-specialist biotech funds like Baker Brothers/Sarissa Capital. Making institutions reach to own 78.77% of the company.
https://preview.redd.it/wf23vakki1g61.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fc25facdf792148c474d72a1e923318456e326c

What should catch investors attention is Alex Denner, head of Sarissa Capital Management recently increasing his stake in the company, managing to own 5% of it. He is one of the most well known biotech investors in the industry. He is the largest inside shareholder of Biogen pharma, ticker BIIB, and notorious for not only finding incredibly deep value in preclinical companies, but for being an "active" vs passive role in their success.
After taking large positions in his value finds, he becomes an advocate for high level decisions from management that unlock shareholder value. He speaks up against possible bad M&A deals and has been known to bring two companies together to facilitate other deals.


  • Pipeline.

○ Orladeyo(berotralstat) oral pill
Orladeyo is the first Oral approved treatment used to prevent swelling attacks in people with hereditary angioedema (HAE), disease which is estimated to affect 1 in 50,000 people.
Berotralstat is currently approved in two countries, on December the 3rd it got approved by the FDA in USA, and on January the 22nd in Japan. The company expects approval of Orladeyo in Europe to happen early Q2.
Before oral Orladeyo was approved for HAE, patients would only have treatments that required usage of needles. This dramatically reduced the quality of their life, making some of them quit using the treatment. That's the main reason why Orladeyo is a game changer.
After the approval, surveys on patients were done, showing a large number of new patients that were not treated before due to needles, now willing to be treated taking oral form Orladeyo pills.
https://preview.redd.it/iuh6qnrli1g61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5228ca462d8e56709a8b5ddde1a5c0c6c10b4d71

As it's shown in the page 13th of the January 2021 Corporate Presentation (page 13), in their recently undergone survey, 59% of the patients expressed high willingness to use Orladeyo, and that number rised to 71% with Physician recommendation.
https://preview.redd.it/m7fffvomi1g61.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=1facd08901d25f90de1a74b7e966d9503a748859

Additional surveys were undergone on patients using treatments from the competence "Cynrize, Haegarda, Takhzyro" and the results were the following ones (page 14).
https://preview.redd.it/utqjd8lni1g61.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb6c59ce6f26fce2301d9bf2b0a47fc1fc4164e0

Number of Patients

USA
In the USA there are 10,000 patients, 7500 diagnosed and treated, 1700 diagnosed but not treated, 600 treated but not diagnosed.
Physicians expect to prescribe Orladeyo for over 41% of HAE patients. Conservatively thinking, taking 7,500 patients out of the total 10,000 pool in the USA, with over 41% of patients prescription ( page 16 ) we would conservatively aim for 3,075 patients.
Japan
On November the 5th Biocryst undergone an agreement with Torii Pharmaceuticals.
A local Japanese company that will be in charge of getting new patients to be treated with Orladeyo in Japan and commerzialing it.
After Orladeyo received the approval in Japan, Goichi Matsuda, president of Torii said the following words "Until now, HAE patients in Japan had no therapies approved to prevent attacks, so the approval of Orladeyo marks a significant advance in HAE treatment", "We are pleased to have the opportunity to bring the first oral treatment option to Japanese HAE patients and are actively preparing for the commercialization".
Japan has 2,500 HAE patients, and Biocryst conservatively expects to at least reach 500 patients this year.
Europe
It's estimated to be around 12,000 HAE patients in Europe. Following the physician prescription of over 41% of patients to prescribe (page 16) for Orladeyo. We get a total of 4,920 patients in Europe

Pricings/Revenue
Each patient will have to pay 485K/year to access the drug in USA. In Japan and Europe the pricing system changes since pricing and jurisdictions work in a different way there. Making it 200K/year.
With this yearly prices and the amount of patients defined before, we get the following results.
3,075 x 485K = 1,491,375,000$
500 x 200K = 100,000,000$
4,920 x 200K = 984,000,000$
Summing it all up we get 2,575,375,000$. From that number we have to subtract 74,625,000$ making it a total of 2,500,750,000$. The sustraction happens as a result of the undergone Royalty agreements with Torii Pharmaceuticals and Royalty Pharma.
In the following link, you will have access to a google sheet, where yearly revenues generated by Orladeyo is estimated. A wide range of multipliers regarding the total patient pool that Orladeyo could capture is added, ranging from ( 10%, 20%, 41% and 75%).Revenues have been estimated with the actual price of Orladeyo in 2021 485K/year, it also has an estimation looking forward to 2025, on how the price of the drug will rise due to inflation. Finally there is a chart that gives an idea of what the the market cap could reach to be using revenue multipliers.
Orladeyo value
Having in mind the discussed numbers before, Orladeyo alone will be generating 2,500,750,000$ a year, using the average mid-cap Biotech company multiplier x7. We get a total of 17,505,250,000$, meaning an increase of 99.40$ in the stock price.
https://preview.redd.it/rk2jrdpoi1g61.png?width=1403&format=png&auto=webp&s=02ebca8ee2255345dbf8cf4f02f092746398f66b
Orladeyo value: 99.40$ SP


○ Peramivir(Rapivab)
Peramivir (Rapivab) is an antiviral drug for the treatment of influenza. Peramivir is a neuraminidase inhibitor, acting as a transition-state analogue inhibitor of influenza neuraminidase and thereby preventing new viruses from emerging from infected cells. It is approved for intravenous administration.
On 19 December 2014, the FDA approved Peramivir to treat influenza infection in adults. Peramivir has also been approved in Japan and South Korea and is available in Japan as Rapiacta and in South Korea as Peramiflu.
The U.S. government (department of Health and Human Services) gave BioCryst Pharmaceuticals more than $77 million to finish the Phase III clinical development of peramivir. In 2009 the department of Health and Human Services had already given about $180 million to the program.
In 2013 the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA/HHS) released new funding under the current $234.8 million contract to enable completion of a New Drug Application filing for intravenous (IV) peramivir.
Rapivab is a bio-defense drug that is often stockpiled by the government. Last time being September the 26th, with a purchase of $14 million.
Peramivir value
With all the explanations given above and having in mind Peramivir is a government bio-defense drug the value of Rapivab can not be less than $750,000,000 conservatively speaking.
https://preview.redd.it/g3xkfbjpi1g61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=677f4881c4c1ec1b223a393356d826ef994cd59d
  • Peramivir value: $4.258 SP


○ Galidesivir - BCX4430
The NIAID and BARDA have been funding the development and testing of Galidesivir for over 15 years as they recognize its importance in preparation for all future pandemics. Recently, the 31st of August, 2020 NIAID Awarded $44 Million Contract to Advance Development of Galidesivir.
Besides COVID-19, the world suffers from 200 million infections per year from filoviruses (Ebola, Marburg), flaviviruses (Hepatitis C, West Nile, Dengue, Jap Encephalitis, Yellow Fever, TBEV, OHFV, and Zika), arenaviruses, bunyaviruses, orthomyxoviruses, picornaviruses and paramyxoviruses (think RSV). Galidesivir is the first antiviral that has ever shown such potential, and to top it off, it is now known from the Phase I trial and now the Brazil part 1 trial to clearly be safe and show dose-sensitive effects in people. And based on multiple animal studies, it works equally effectively as a pill that is stable for years at room temperature. Not only that, but this antiviral, unlike any of the others, has excellent penetration of the blood brain barrier as was seen in the macaque Zika virus study.
Efficacy
Phase I safety trials in humans had shown that it was safe and well tolerated .NIAID on April 9th 2020 its expansion of the Brazilian yellow fever trial to include three cohorts of 8 severely affected COVID-19 patients, each being given a different IV dose regimen . Unfortunately, but obvious in hindsight, this trial was from the beginning underpowered to determine a clinical benefit. The patients were followed for eight weeks after their treatments. The company on December 22nd announced that all three doses were perfectly safe for the patients. In addition, they found that patients had a dose-sensitive reduction in virus levels in their lungs. They went on to say that an animal model, which will likely be published shortly, showed that Galidesivir significantly reduced COVID-19-associated lung damage. Despite all this and even though the trial was not even powered to detect a clinical difference in the patients, the NIAID, after finding an insignificant difference in outcomes between the small numbers of drug-treated and placebo-treated patients, inexplicably decided to discontinue clinical trials of it for COVID-19, to the great confused dismay of investors and perhaps even taken advantage of by short hedge funds who brought the stock down in late December. Bear in mind that during this trial, one of the most lethal strains of COVID-19 we know of was affecting the Brazilian trial sites, later known now as the P.1 or Manaus strain, and could have easily negatively affected the clinical outcomes of this small trial too given that the trial was focused on very sick patients more likely to carry this bad strain.
Galidesivir value
First of all, we must have in mind that Galidesivir is a Government funded bio-defense drug, that aims to treat a wide range of viruses as explained before. Its global stockpiling for future pandemics is also an absolute certainty given its long-term stability. With all the explanations being given, conservatively talking Galidesivir can not be worth less than $2.5B, this is 14.20$.
https://preview.redd.it/la3l2rcqi1g61.png?width=1014&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7ad9c62790d7480afff31cfc35c4731ec86e078
  • Galidesivir value: 14.20$ SP


○ FOP - BCX9250
FOP is an ultra-rare, severely disabling condition characterized by the irregular formation of bone outside the normal skeleton, also known as heterotopic ossification (HO). HO can occur in muscles, tendons and soft tissue. Patients with FOP become bound by this irregular ossification over time, with restricted movement and fused joints, resulting in deformities and premature mortality. There are currently no approved treatments for FOP.
There are an estimated 3,500 to 9,000 patients worldwide, with 900 diagnosed so far. Currently there aren’t any approved treatments.
Market size for this treatment is estimated to reach 500M-900M in 2025, growing to 3B in 2028 as more patients are diagnosed. With a price ranging from $900K-$1M/year.
Last December the 21st Biocryst announced positive Phase 1 results
“BCX9250 was safe and well tolerated at all doses studied, with linear and dose-proportional exposure supporting once-daily dosing.”.
“In preclinical studies, BCX9250 demonstrated potency for the target kinase, selectivity, safety and strong suppression of HO in animal models.”
BCX9250 Value
BCX9250 study will most likely take 4 years to finish, this is, until 2025. By then the potential market we will be aimming for, will be $750,000,000 aprox.
Drugs that are in Phase 1 studies are said to have a 10% chance of making it to the market. Following that, BCX9250 as of now shuld be valued at $75,000,000 = 0.426$
https://preview.redd.it/xv4s7d8ri1g61.png?width=1256&format=png&auto=webp&s=63c2574e418ec445ceb92946478057c04b034d17
  • BCX9250 value: 0.426$ SP


○ Oral Factor D inhibitor - BCX9930
BCX9930 is a novel, oral, potent and selective small molecule inhibitor of Factor D currently in Phase 1 clinical development for the treatment of complement-mediated diseases.
The 3rd of August 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Fast Track designation for oral Factor D inhibitor, BCX9930.
Staff excitement
Staff team from Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc seem to be really positive and excited about the incoming future of BCX9930. Such excitement has been seen in the last conference calls where staff members such as the CEO Jon P.Stonehouse, or the Vice President, William P.Sheridan would say the following words.
“Embarrassment of riches”. “We agree with Alexion that creating a potent specific and great oral Factor D inhibitor is a great challenge, and we are happy we have one” , “My only concern is i have no concerns”, “Pipeline in a molecule”, “My aim is to make c5 inhibitors obsolete”, “This is Big”.
Efficacy level
The key for efficacy with this kind of treatment is improving the number of Hb Hemoglobin levels. BCX9930 showed 3.8g/dL improvement ( page 31 ). The competence, Novartis showed 2.87g/dL improvement and Alexion 2.4-2.6g/dL.
https://preview.redd.it/5ow4oubsi1g61.png?width=1263&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef9f8339a593661c4741108fd09128ccfe0316e2

On December the 6th, 2020 BCX9930 data was released showing high potency and specificity for alternative pathway complement.
“BCX9930 monotherapy has the potential to inhibit both intravascular and extravascular hemolysis”,
“In the study, BCX9930 was highly specific for the alternative pathway and, after oral dosing of BCX9930 in primates, alternative pathway activity was completely suppressed.”
“These data demonstrate that BCX9930 is a highly potent and specific orally bioavailable Factor D inhibitor with potential for treatment of patients with PNH and other alternative pathway mediated diseases,” said Dr. William Sheridan”
Alternative Pathway
What makes BCX9930 be a game changer, is the wide spectrum of Alternative Pathway Dysregulation disease it can treat. It can treat up to 8 diseases (page 26) as of now, that is why insiders call it “Pipeline in a molecule”. The diseases it treats are the following ones.
https://preview.redd.it/hir48l0ti1g61.png?width=1273&format=png&auto=webp&s=36a8ee0c49df7d8d5fc1ca9a2c928f756430a6ef

PNH (Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria)
aHUS (Atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome)
ANCA vasculitis (antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis)
Lupus Nephritis
IgAN vasculitis
C3G (Glomerulonephritis)
PMN (Primary membranous nephropathy)
IgAN (IgA nephropathy)
Potential market size by 2025
Assuming BCX9930 will be approved by 2025, and it will be able to treat those diseases, we reach the following conclusion. The potential market size BCX9930 will be aiming for by 2025 scores up to 44.53B/year. Being that number obtained summing up the following ones.

“"PNH Treatment Market Size Worth $5.8 Billion by 2025"
“"The global systemic lupus erythematosus market size is expected to reach USD 3.08 billion by 2025"
“"aHUS, having in mind the disease prevalence (2 and 5.5)/MM, and the disease being treated with Soliris - 500,000$/ year. The worldwide market size should range between ( $7.5B and $20.5B)" We take 7.5B as conservative.
“"Vasculitis treatment market size forecast to reach $743.2M by 2025"
“"IgAN, having in mind the 1/3,707 incidence rate, and the yearly cost of the drug $12,456 we are aiming for a market size of $4,660,088,544"
“"Having in mind C3G can be treated with Soliris and it costs $500,000 a year. Summing up all those 45,700 patients the market size we aim for is 22.85B"

All this data can be more detailedly found in the following google sheet mentioned before.
Alexion buy out
On December the 12th, 2020 Alexion announced that AstraZeneca was going to buy them for 39B. More than 90% of their revenue comes from their “Factor D” C5 inhibitor, being that the main reason why AstraZeneca wanted that buy out to happen.
You might think, why does this matter?. Well, remember we have a Factor D which has shown to be more effective than Alexion’s, and is able to treat more diseases than they do aswell. This buy out reflects how undervalued BCX9930 is.
Apart from the buy out, i think it's essential to mention that Alexion bought Achillion's factor D when it was in ph 2 for $930MM.
In 2019 Alexion's SOLIRIS® (eculizumab) net product sales were $3,946.4 million. Soliris is currently approved to treat PNH adn aHUS. Have in mind BCX9930 is able to treat 6 diseases more, aimming for a wider market size, and also having greater efficacy/safety.
Using a biotech mid-cap x7 revenue multiplier 3,964B = 27,748B. meanning a SP value of $157.56 for BCRX. I want to make clear again that BCX9930 is said to be best in-class treatment and it's able to treat more diseases, this numbers could go much higher.
Phase II study
Despite the company not PR'ing the start of the phase II study of BCX9930, the official page of clinacal trials, show that the start of phase II study was December the 18th, 2020. This is extremely bullish since it reasures our thoughts that Ph I data readout will be good and enough to keep the study going.
https://preview.redd.it/9nbz3y6ui1g61.png?width=1509&format=png&auto=webp&s=77833ece74cc7adfb5797de905b3db239b6ae214
BCX9930 valuation
Having in mind BCX9930 is a potential best-in-class treatment, Alexion got bought out for 39B mainly for their “Factor D” c5 inhibitor and the yearly market size it aims for in 2025 rounds 44.53B. BCX9930 valuation can not be less than a 30% of Alexion’s buy out price, this is 11.7B meaning 66.44$. I want to make clear that once the drug is approved and generating revenue, the average x7 revenue can be used, making it much more valuable than it’s now. Do not forget data readout is due Q1.
https://preview.redd.it/gw1389xui1g61.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a0071d67a1f1513b05c9a0055bc355d20643085
  • BCX9930 value: 66.44$ SP


  • Strong BO Buy Out candidate
As we have explained in the Institutional section before, all good bio-tech investors do know who Alexander J.Denner founder of Sarissa Capital is. After recently increasing his stake in BCRX, along with BlackRock, he now owns a 5.01% of Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Denner, has increased his position in BCRX by an stunning 789% in the last 3 quarters, showing strong conviction in the company.
Since Denner opened his position in Alexion, it took him 5 months to close the buy out deal, as shown in the picture below
https://preview.redd.it/bh8cf54xi1g61.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0f29d8baac51da14e88f333bd8271e43618ef81

After this exhaustive analysis on the company, we can easily acknowledge that BCRX is more than an strong BO candidate. A buy out coming from BIIB, company where Denner forms part of the BOD board of directors, would make total sense in the following 2 years once BCX9930 Factor D phase II data is unveiled.


  • Alexion's performance with Soliris
As we have explained before, Alexion pharmaceuticals has a Factor D "c5" inhibitor called Soliris.
This company could be the perfect example to have an idea of what we could expect from Biocryst's performance. From 2007 to 2014 Alexion's stock price grew a 1777%. Being valued at 10.5$ in 2007 and 186.6$ in 2014.
Revenue generated by Alexion gradually grew up as their Factor D was approved to treat additional diseases, and the market size they captured got wider.

Year Soliris revenue Stock price Market cap Events
2007 66.4 MM 18.6 2.8 B Soliris approval for PNH
2008 259 18.06 2.95 Split 2:1
2009 368.8 24.5 4.2
2010 541 40.2 7.45
2011 783 74.4 13.10 Split 2:1 Soliris approved for aHUS
2012 1134 97.6 19.5
2013 1551 131.7 26.05
2014 2234 186.6 37.10
https://preview.redd.it/l5ezigxxi1g61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e34d93d9f2d36d109b6207dfb100ff781d7bde7c

Biocryst Pharmaceuticals stock managing to do the SP move Alexion did, is more than doable with the unique pipeline it has. Having in mind Alexion made 66.4 MM revenue the first year while BCRX at least expects to generate 500 MM with Orladeyo, apart from it, additional revenue generated by Rapivab/Galidesivir stockpillings. Incoming Earning Reports are meant to be potential catalysts for the company, gradually becoming more meaningful as the market size they capture with Orladeyo becomes wider.


  • De-risked company
Last December the 7th, 2020 BCRX announced they made a Royalty agreement with Royalty Pharma and Athyrium Capital Management. With this agreement BCRX was funded with $325,000,000 in order to support Orladeyo launch. Setting the company in an attractive position of not needing to do any more money risings "offerings".
Jon Stonehouse CEO, also confirmed that the company will not need to do offerings anymore. The fact that the company is already generating revenue with Orladeyo is another strong evidence that confirms money risings will not be needed anymore.


  • Conclusion
After this exhaustive analysis, we come to the conclusion that BCRX sitting at $10.30 with a market cap of 1.82B is severely undervalued, and if we sum up the true value of the pipeline, it should be valued at 184.74$, representing a 1793% upside return. This stock price number will keep growing as we keep getting data updates from the on-going studies, making it an excellent long-term hold and buy out candidate.
Once the given information on the company is aknowledged, realizing how heavily the company has been manipulated by institutions, constantly making short pressure bigger in order to move the stock into ridiculous price levels, to be able to accumulate more shares at premium prices. Should not be of anyone's surprise, as this is a true "Embarrasment of Riches", like insiders call it, and they aim to load as much as thay can, at the very best premium prices.
Total value: 184.77$ SP

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define risk in safety video

Hazard ID and Risk Assessment - YouTube Introduction to Risk Management - YouTube Safe risk taking in your centre? - YouTube Hazard and Risk -- What's the difference? - YouTube Define Risk, hazard, unsafe act & Consequence - YouTube Risk Management Framework (RMF) Overview - YouTube private collection #50 definition of risk and safety ... Risk and How to use a Risk Matrix - YouTube How do you define risk? - YouTube Safety Moment - A better definition of RISK - YouTube

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Hazard ID and Risk Assessment - YouTube

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define risk in safety

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