Whew lads hope all is well. Well just because I'm in desperate need of story time I figured I'd share this with everyone. What was the biggest time you had one event lead to really letting you lose your shit? I just had the oddest spell of events recently and I just got fired about an hour ago during lunch so I'm still trying to piece it all together... [I mean hey I guess on the bright side its not like I was married at least with kids but Jesus I still have to eat and a disabled mother to provide for.]
This particular one started fairly innocuous a few months ago, I met and connected with a beautiful girl on a dating app after being out of a long term relationship and we began to see each other. Of course it was during the WORST time to be meeting someone: thanksgiving, Christmas and new years time. Funny part is I'm huge fucking degenerate but also an attorney so I think I managed to slip under her radar as a crazy. She made me feel good, got my confidence up and shit I even stopped drinking during most of December because she doesn't do any drugs or drink so I figured there's no way she's going be able to handle my drunk self. So I started lifting weights again, actually cut my hair for once, became more well groomed, etc. but there was always a crack just ready to shatter in that foundation...
Well this was one of those odd flings because we bought each other presents, use to eat at parks (covid right?) and do cutesy stuff together... We went to Vegas during covid and drive in movie theaters. Then comes Christmas and I find out my family has cancelled their plans [okay sure sounds good to me, time to get tanked!] If I'm being honest I was probably heavily depressed with the holidays coming up and literally feeling like nobody gave a shit about me (I mean I was dating but I didn't think she really cared). Well this nice girl who at this point I had been seeing since early November is a nurse by trade and is all about the money so she was working all the major holidays (she made sure I knew lol) so I figured she's not going to see me on Xmas if we didn't see each other on Thanksgiving. Well bad calculation on my part, I start getting all these texts about "hey babe what are you doing" blah blah and I'm probably like half a bottle of Jameson in. Even though I was inebriated I knew better than to have her come over because she isn't a drinker or a smoker so I basically blew her off and told her we should just play games (she's a twitch gamer girl).
She agrees to that so we get to our gaming. At this point I'm so fucked up I'm like that kid on the basketball court that is talking shit, thinking he's the shit but bricks almost every shot. She voices her displeasure. At the time maybe I was just too drunk or didn't care but I paid it no mind since hey I'm a drunk sometimes this side comes out. [Well enter the next day.]
She's slightly not as receptive to my texts, so shit I figure not a problem maybe she's just busy. I'm usually much more crazy when I'm drunk so I didn't think much. As the day progresses I can start to realize though that she's becoming distant, I start popping the beer because the work day is over and get online to start gaming figuring hey it will be different if we just game and I'm not texting her weird shit. All of a sudden I notice that I can't find her on my friends list.... I start to question, hmmm that's weird maybe I did that when I drunk?
At this point I've already had a few beers on an empty stomach so I start the text to her pretty calmly asking her if she wanted to play games. She basically just tells me that it isn't going to work out and for me to leave her alone. I gotta give it to her.... She slowplayed me to the T. I refused to take that for an explanation because it just wasn't an explanation at all tbh. I demand she gives me an explanation. She then blocks me on text. I get super pissed and start texting her on google message (I have had experience being blocked and know how to get around it lol) and she finally says she can't see me because "I'm emotionally unstable." I don't know what it was but it almost felt like that meme where it says "and that was the moment that...." I couldn't handle this, we had a bunch going on and then you just dropped me literally still hot and fresh out of the oven.
I started getting furious, naturally drinking to fuel this unreasonable fire. I start insulting her, saying whatever the fuck I want and none of it is nice. [Fade to black]
At some point I woke up the next day on my floor next to my bed. I'm kind of doing one those "'doh not again moments!" when I realize its actually 1pm on a Monday morning. O SHIT I HAVE WORK. But the aftermath of my drinking is already apparent, I'm shitting blood, dry heaving and with crazy head pains, [like can't do anything type of shit.] I furiously try to find some more booze to take the edge off and sign into work, shit storm of emails. [Short backstory but I had a no call no show back in December so I think it was already a bit dicey.] They are just not happy. I have all these emails putting me on blast and like I said I'm an attorney so its a stressful job but ultimately I do have responsibilities.
Well that 1pm booze I was hitting must have been kicking in different or something because once I saw all those emails I just basically said "you know what? fuck all this. I'm going back to booze and then sleep bc I frankly don't give a damn." Then I get a weird text from a cousin who has now informed me that my grandma has been dead for over a month (covid) but they are doing the funeral tomorrow. Well RIP grandma but you were always kind of a piece of shit to me and wrote my immediate family out of your will so NAH but hey why not drink more because she's dead and that's affecting you! The bender ensues.
Honestly guys I know we joke about it but when was the last legitimate time you had a long bender? I'm talking like you are drinking from sun up to sun down shit. Well this developed into that. I'm now drinking a 750 ml bottle and at least 4 heavy beers every day and also still haven't reported to work. Anxiety is going up the roof but I finally managed to send a drunken email on Tuesday about not being able to show up till Monday due a family passing. The drinking continues to rock star levels, party of one.
Six days pass, its finally Monday again [today]. That time warp shit is real. I look around my room - it smells like shit (literally because of my nasty beer sweating ass), there were 9 jameson bottles around my room all tapped and various amounts of micro brewery beer (the 8%+ stuff). Literally looking like some hoarders/intervention shit. I casually clock back into work then I get the sweet sweet email from HR: "Hello please give this person a call to discuss a few things about last week." I give them the Disney version and just reference the email I had sent reflecting my grandma's passing. The lady says she needs to discuss this with her manager and hangs up. Hmm I lament, that was really not the answer I was looking for (although I should expect considering I left the job for a week). My boss insists I continue to work until I hear from HR so I do.
More stressful times? Well might as well drink as I'm drafting this motion! All of a sudden I get a phone call again from someone I don't know. They informed me that they had a few other people on the call my managing attorney being one of them. They let me know that being tardy like that is unacceptable and blah blah and then let me know I am being let go. I give them the corporate speech of being appreciative, thank you for your patience, etc. Dead silence on the phone: "So do you have anything else to say?" I'm like no then they just straight up hang up on me. Pretty razzle dazzle day, going to get a few beers in me and assess this tomorrow. Chairs.
submitted by My fiancé watching me savagely cut open a 14lb package: "You better not have bought more clothes."
Me:
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Details
Agent: Wegobuy for everything with credit card
Taobao total clothing cost: $215.50; prices below are what I paid at the time.
WeChat sellers total clothing + expert service fee total cost: 4246.20 CNY
$99.80 parcel shipping cost for 6.44 kg with SAL
I'm 5'2" (God didn't make me tall because he knew I wouldn't act right), 128 lbs. and my waist measures 27" with tape, 26" for a tight fit. I have a little quarantine weight on me right now around the midsection and that's fine, surviving a pandemic is cool with me and I've already dropped a few lbs with my new peloton. This is the last area to be hard on myself in. I'm a 30DDD/32DD (thanks boob job). My jeans size vary widely depending on the brand but I'm a 27 in Reformation and Frame auth jeans with some comfort/room in the waist. I can be anywhere from an xs to an m in tops depending on how I want it to fit.
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Timeline
11/10 - 11/11 - ordered everything
11/14 - pretty much all the Taobao stuff was stored in the warehouse by this time
11/21 - pretty much all the Wechat stuff was stored in the warehouse by this time
11/22 - submitted my package to ship
11/23 - parcel was picked up
11/25 - the airline received it
12/05 - made it through customs in LA
12/17 - held at my post office in TX (was out of town)
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Jeans are styled with my Wolford Colorado bodysuit and rep. Chanel slingbacks. Frame Le Skinny De Jeanne Raw Stagger-Hem – Size 27 / Light Blue
MINE AND MOD |
PSPs |
STORE |
W2C |
AUTH $46.46 USD | auth: $215USD
10/10 Okay I love these jeans. They are of the exact same quality as my other auth Frame jeans, if not a tad better, and have such a flattering fit. I posted a comparison picture of the different labels but want to be clear that if you google 'Frame denim label' there are plenty of photos that I have to assume are auth that look exactly like this pair. Jean styles, labels, tags, etc. change and vary all the time so these not matching my auth labels honestly doesn't mean much and is just a reference. What's interesting is the interior seam tag is different from my auth pair but the RN# is the same. Possibly grey market but not sure. Would recommend these and feel the price is fair.
Mother The Looker Ankle Fray Jeans – Size 27 / Girl Crush
MINE AND MOD |
PSPs |
STORE |
W2C |
AUTH $38.07 USD | auth: $210USD
9.99/10 I love these jeans! I feel like they look bomb on me and give me bawdy. I'm torn on if these are grey market or not - leaning towards no because of the stitching mistake on the right butt pocket and the pocket says these are the looker ankle fray jeans in girl crush but the interior seam tags suggest they are a different style. So it's possible they're a grey market reject pair due to so many factory errors but it's also possible that the factory that made these rep jeans have auth tags and are just sewing them on. Most obviously, the ankles are not frayed. The interior seam tag suggests this is the dazzler style but the fit doesn't seem to match that. I have handled Mother jeans (there are a lot at my local Nordstrom rack but never in my size, sigh) and these are just as high quality with a wonderful fit, TTS and very sexy. Took a tiny point off because of the errors (ankles not frayed, tags not matching what the pocket says, stitching error where the white stitches are triple-stitched on one of the Ms) but they are still leagues ahead of most of the jeans currently in my closet and an excellent value.
Toteme Twisted Seam Denim – Size 27 / Light Blue
MINE AND MOD |
PSPs |
STORE |
W2C |
AUTH $43.23 USD | auth: $241 USD
9/10 These are mad cute! I'm glad I branched out into something a little different from the straight leg tight-fit jeans I relentlessly buy. I've never owned or handled auth in person but these are probably the most high quality of all the jeans because of how thick the fabric is and the attention to detail. The tags look really great. Possibly grey market but not confident. These fit TTS but are high-waisted on me so I had to suck it in a little bit to button. Took a point off because they are not the most flattering - the crotch is a bit baggy on me and my butt disappears in these, which is fine because not everything needs to be skin tight but my butt went poof in these. I like it but can't say I'm in love with these jeans yet - but they are very cute!
Frame Le Skinny de Jeanne Raw Stagger – Size 27 / White and Black
MINE AND MOD (NSFW) |
PSPs |
STORE |
W2C |
AUTH $40 USD | auth: $205 USD
5/10 These are super popular jeans on here and on TB and I'm not sure why lol. There's a major discrepancy between colors when it comes to sizing. There's no way the white jeans are a size 27 because I can't even get them over my ass. Black is TTS but a bit tight - could not size down. Compared to my auth frame jeans as well the labels are inaccurate but frame jean labels CAN vary. So sorry the photos didn't focus very well but tbh you ain't missing out on a whole lot. The quality of these jeans are close to H&M's cheapest pairs because the fabric is pretty thin. These are not worth even $30 but I do like the black pair and they will serve their purpose. Maybe find these cheaper in another store? I'm gonna rule these as not grey market.
Gucci Tights – One size / Black
MINE AND MOD (NSFW) |
PSPs |
STORE |
W2C |
AUTH $7.75 USD | auth: $120 USD
10/10 Hey man these get the job done. My main concern here was that they would be very thin, fragile, and prone to snagging like many nylon stockings, but these are of a thicker material closer to sheer knit tights. The GGs show up very nicely and have a nice shape to them. No one will assume I am wearing the auth but they also don't immediately look fake either because the pattern is classy and subtle. For less than $10 these are a win in my book. Will wash on the delicate cycle in a mesh bag.
Gucci Jacquard Cardigan – White
MINE AND MOD |
FACTORY PHOTO AND PSPs | RAOTONG (WeChat: hh088606)|
AUTH 590 CNY / ~$90 USD| auth: $2050 USD
10/10 Out of everything I purchased, this is the BEST THING EVER. Hands down. I'm in love. You can tell in the try on photos I am truly feeling myself. And to me it's an absolute bargain. I know $90 for a cardigan can be a bit pricey but for what you get, trust me, I couldn't find a high quality and interesting cardigan elsewhere at that price. It checks alllll the boxes for me - high quality, stylish, great fit, stands out, and great value. I've wanted a Gucci cardigan forever but find the auth prices absolutely hysterical. The main flaw I see is the 'made in italy' tag sewn under the GUCCI logo tag shouldn't be there. Even the GG ... GG pattern alignment looks excellent. I am shooketh by the buttons - they look damn near identical to the auth (there's probably a difference but my eyes can't find it), just sewn on at a slight rotation to the right instead of a straight vertical. I don't know what the exact composition is supposed to be but the rep tag definitely suggests a wool blend. And it's so soft and luxe-feeling, I would rock this in the Gucci store with the confidence of the old white guys running the US government. Will hand-wash this.
Chanel Pullover Sweater – Small / Black
MINE AND MOD |
FACTORY PHOTO AND PSPs | ANNA (WeChat: anna2020luck)| Fantasy piece?
540 CNY / ~$83 USD
10/10 I've always wanted a piece like this from Chanel - something subtle but not subtle, a flex but only if you look, and something vague enough that one might say "Could be fake because everyone wears fake Chanel, but could be real because this girl looks like money." It's easy to turn down the flex if you put something over this. This is so soft, silky, and comfortable. I could've sworn I saw the auth of this at some point because I pretty much never intentionally order fantasy pieces, but I'm glad I took the plunge with this even though I can't find an auth link. And Chanel clothes in general are very difficult to hunt down given they're not very accessible online and fakes are truly everywhere. I was super concerned the C in the CHANEL on the back would come smaller and more misshapen than the other letters - I stared at the psps for a long, long time. But in person, all looks well to me. In person this is more of an off-white than pure white or cream like the psps look. The fabric composition according to the tag (mostly cashmere) feels about right. I also really like the fit - not too short or long, not too tight or baggy, the small was just right for me. Will hand-wash this.
Comme des Garçons Play Cardigan – Small / Black
MINE AND MOD |
FACTORY PHOTO AND PSPs | PINK (WeChat: duou7479)|
AUTH 550 CNY / $84 USD | auth: $400 USD
9.9/10 This cardigan is sooo nice but did come a bit lint-y. Looks like I rolled around on the carpet with it but that's how it came. My heart says that this is grey market. The details are impeccable, the heart patch looks excellent down to the position of the pair of eyes and the shape and position of the black pupils within the eyes. It also looks properly placed. The tag is sewn on exactly like the auth and the size part is the same font as the auth. Even the buttons look identical, shiny and pearlescent and I love that this came with an extra. The rep tag says 100% wool which is identical to the auth, and I believe it is 100% wool as it doesn't have a silky feel like many wool cardigans that are mixed with synthetics to make them softer and stretchier. I know I can be quick to say something is grey market but if this isn't grey market auth then this is a
DAMN good rep, like beyond. No reason to buy the auth. It's also one of the most expensive wechat purchase on this list. My only 'gripe' is that I feel it makes me a tad frumpy as the cut is quite boxy but perhaps that's just my body lol. Will hand-wash this.
Gucci GG Wool Jacquard Scarf – Black / Ivory
MINE AND MOD |
FACTORY PHOTO AND PSPs | ANNA (WeChat: anna2020luck)|
AUTH 477 CNY / ~$73 USD| auth: $480 USD
9.99/10 Have never handled the auth in person but chile. This is a damn steal. This is supposed to be mostly wool according to the auth composition list and I expect mine feels about similar. It's not as silky as a cashmere scarf but is more like a really nice wool blanket. I mean look at the size of this damn thing!! The G pattern looks excellent although I think the Gs themselves
could be a tad more oblong. Not 100% sure on that. Perhaps the frayed ends could be longer as well but also not 100% sure on that. The colors themselves look great but on the side with the dark grey (almost black) background, I think the factory could've mixed in more of the lighter color with the dark color and it would match the auth more. The tag is sewn on very similarly to the auth, it's just the placement of the red threads is slightly inaccurate. Overall this is a bargain to me and I'm beyond satisfied with it. One of my top 3 favorites of this haul. Will hand-wash this.
CELINE Cashmere Cowl Neck Sweater – Small / Cream
MINE AND MOD |
FACTORY PHOTO AND PSPs | ANNA (WeChat: anna2020luck)|
AUTH 396 CNY / ~$61 USD| auth: $1950 USD
9/10 Truly beautiful. The quality is beyond. I've felt some Celine auth sweaters and this definitely holds its weight in terms of feel and quality. There's a few pulled threads on this that are my bad - it arrived in perfect condition. But I would consider this piece fragile as a result. The knit pattern on the sleeves is so delicate and subtle but gorgeous once you catch the detail. The fabric feels, to the best of my knowledge, like what it claims to be (100% wool) but it manages to feel quite silky I suppose due to the weave and pattern of the material. It's supposed to be 100% cashmere according to the auth. The details with this aren't 100% there, like the lines going down the shoulders that connect the sleeves to the body of the garment are different on the rep. But it's damn close and I like the luxe, oversized look this gives. Would not size down. Was a bit concerned when looking in the mirror that this made me look a bit frumpy but I'm past that now that I can see some pictures of me in it. The turtleneck is a bit awkward though and takes some confidence to rock. Will hand-wash.
Balenciaga Oversized Sweater – Pink
MINE AND MOD |
FACTORY PHOTO AND PSPs | RAOTONG (WeChat: hh088606)|
AUTH 490 CNY / ~$75 USD| auth: ~$1250 USD
8.99/10 Love it. A true monstrosity. This is massive. I feel like I'm in a snuggie when I wear this and my cat likes to groom it. When I say this is oversized, this is beyond oversized. I have no idea where in public I would wear this except maybe to conduct traffic. Makes a wonderful sleeping gown in the winter. Stylish? Not sure. Comfortable? In many ways. Worth it? I think so. The material isn't silky soft but it's like cotton soft, which is good given this is 76% cotton. The font is surprisingly accurate to the auth and the striped nature of the sweater looks identical. The tags look excellent and high-quality. This is a super cute sweater and my cats are addicted to it. Maybe I'll put this on every time I need to grind down their nails and it'll make it more pleasant? Will hand-wash.
Loewe Logo-Embroidered Sweatshirt – Grey / White
MINE AND MOD |
FACTORY PHOTO AND PSPs | ANNA (WeChat: anna2020luck)|
AUTH 441 CNY / ~$68 USD| auth: $690 USD
7/10 I don't know why I green-lit this tbh. I wanted the coffee-colored version but Anna was out of stock, so I asked what other colors she had and this was the last one in my size. I didn't love it when she sent the factory photo so I'm not sure why I said 'yeah that's fine' but, well, I did. I didn't love the psps either when it arrived to the warehouse. And now that it's here? I'm still not sure that I love it. I mean it's a sweatshirt that looks like it's inside out lol. It looks a bit odd, which is cool because it grabs attention and is something different, but it also looks like I'm mistakenly walking around with my clothes inside out. And the grey is quite boring. Out of all the wechat sellers I checked with for this, Anna's LOEWE and logo symbol looked the most accurate. Even comparing with auth, it looks absolutely excellent - the font looks almost perfect, I would just rotate the O a few degrees to the right. The logo looks perfect to me. The inside-out style just looks strange and the coffee colorway looks so nice. Sigh. It's an excellent rep, don't get me wrong - it's just not the colorway I was looking for but that's on me for going through with the purchase. Maybe I'll learn to love it. Will machine wash.
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Agent satisfaction: 9/10 they are fast and responsive, and very communicative. PSP photos are on par with other agents. The service fee for sourcing from wechat and whatsapp is 5% which imo was fair for the service I received. For wechat psps, you actually get them emailed to you and they are seriously beautiful and look SO good. Unfortunately I didn't save them all in time so they expired and are no longer accessible. Don't be like me - save those pictures when you get them, you paid for them. I think ytaopal is cheapefree but they're more of a hassle to deal with which is why I branched out and tried something new. Wegobuy's website can be finicky and annoying at times too.
Overall haul satisfaction: 9/10 I think this was a score. I love that I've finally added some rep clothing to my wardrobe; it feels more complete. I'm very grateful this gigantic package didn't get inspected and/or seized and I'm glad I picked up some reps out of my comfort zone that should last awhile with care instead of paying for trendy clothes elsewhere. TB is still a high-risk place for me. I like it but I want to love it and I just don't. It's just a lot to sort through and the quality of what you get seems more random. I'm definitely looking to make more wechat purchases in the future. I'm glad I followed size charts but still ended up getting burned with one pair of pants. And now I still need a pair of white jeans lol.
BONUS unsolicited thoughts on dressing "like an adult": Awhile ago I had
asked in the daily thread for advice on how to curate a wardrobe and develop a sense of style, and there are a handful of really great tips on the thread. Since sales season (11/11, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, etc.), I invested more money and time than I would've liked into purging my wardrobe and buying high-quality staples. I ended up getting an auth Max Mara Manuela coat (about 50% of MSRP from Italy), an auth Burberry large check scarf (selfridges, 20% off), some cashmere from Naadam, some silk pajamas from Neimans, some Frame jeans, and
two Wolford Chicago bodysuits (selfridges, 20% off) in conjunction with my rep haul. Still looking for a lot of staples to add to my wardrobe, but here's what I've learned in the process:
- How to read care labels and understand the fabric and materials of my clothing. I spent some time really understanding how to online shop for high-quality clothing when I can't touch and see it in person, and how to make my clothes last longer. Many brands advertise their clothes as cashmere or silk when it's a blend so it's really important to check materials when possible.
- I'm more of a brand whore than I'd care to admit. And I'll be the first to admit that I like turning heads and getting compliments, even though I don't dress for other people. 90% of what I purged from my wardrobe was fast fashion.
- I have "boring" tastes right now. I really like how simple and minimalist things look on me as of late, perhaps because I'm biased towards staples and I'm all about accentuating my figure (hence why I was so on the fence about some of the looser items but it's just something to get used to).
- I care about quality to an extent. I am not one of those people you can blindfold and ask to pick out the $500 wool sweater vs the $50 wool sweater by feel. I just do my best to find brands with strong reputations and read composition carefully.
- Rep clothes aren't always worth it. This is of course specific to your financial picture. My local Nordstrom Rack has Frame, Mother, and Paige denim for about $90 a piece and I've seen some online for even cheaper than that (although a 27 is tough to find when sale). My Frame Taobao jeans factored out to be about $45 with shipping, but I don't have the guarantee that they are actually grey market, I had to wait a long time for them with seizure risk, idk how long they'll last, and returning them because of poor fit/quality/etc. is unrealistic. It might be worth that 50% of auth sale value for many, but if I can find the exact auth at a deep discount, I'll just get the auth. Everyone's calculation is different and it can be easier to do with purses than with clothes since paying $300 for a $6k bag is more of a no-brainer.
If you read this far, thank you and may your reps always arrive quickly and may you never experience a customs seizure!!
EDIT - Thanks everyone for the kind comments!! My nails are beyond busted, my braids need to be retouched, and some of these photos aren't even in focus and yet.....love this sub 💝💝💝
So I am converting a regular Merrill Lynch broker account into a margin account. Opening today or tomorrow. Reason is I want to be able to (infrequently and conservatively) short the occasional stock.
ML told me I would be charged interest on the amount of the “loan”, and that the subsequent value of security would not impact that loan balance that the interest is computed on. That makes sense ($100 short sale, 50 is my cash and 50 on margin, my loan is 50 and interest charge on the 50 until I return the security). Obviously market value could cause a margin call or maintenance call, fine. But market value change would not impact the balance on which interest charged (makes sense).
But oddly when I read the ML margin account opening disclosure agreement, it says this (in what I think is a cut and paste truth in lending section):
“short sales
The market values of securities you sell “short” are adjusted daily for interest calculation purposes by a process called “marking to the market.” “Short sales against the box” are treated in exactly the same way as short sales.
The market value of all securities sold short in your account,including securities sold “short against the box,” are treated as a debit for the purpose of calculating interest charges. The closing market value of the securities that were sold short is determined each business day and is either added to the net debit balance or subtracted from the net credit balance in order to calculate interest charges.
If the total market value of the securities sold short increases, then the debit adjustment to the net balance will increase by the same amount for the calculation of interest charges. Conversely, if the total market value of the securities sold short decreases, then the debit adjustment to the net balance will also decrease by alike amount for the calculation of interest charges. The market value of “long”securities held in your account against which a short sale is made is not included in the computation of interest charges.”
Question: is this correct? If not then Merrill Lynch really?
Also, since it is in the agreement, I would argue that if the short stock went down, then customers should have been charged less interest per the above as drafted by ML. If went up and ML never followed their own language too late but if I was a ML customer who has been shorting I would ask for a refund for all in the money shorts?
submitted by I'm not necessarily new to this forum, but I poke around just enough to only recently become aware of Bob's run. I have seen others get hot like this, and it has always ended in a blaze of infamy. Nevertheless, I love when this community comes together, and lately it has been fun cheering him on like a hot roller getting us all rich at the craps table.
However, I have to admit... in the back of my mind, the numbers-lover inside of me has been wondering... "Well, if enough people are posting their picks on a regular basis, what are the odds of one of them getting this hot just by luck?"
So, I decided to do that math. For me, personally, this is what makes our terrible hobby so enjoyable. I bet on sports not to make money, but because I enjoy playing with numbers (and having something very small on the line). So, this looked like a fun puzzle.
My first step was to calculate the probability of each of Bob's predictions hitting. The simplest way that I know to do this was to convert the moneylines that he conveniently posted to implied probabilities. Then, adjust these to "true probabilities" based on an assumed vig. For example, a ML of -110 has an implied probability of 0.524. However, it is likely that this is seen as a 50/50 bet by Vegas with 0.024 of juice. So, the "true probability" of Bob correctly predicting a -110 bet is .500.
I did this for all 24 of Bob's bets. The average "true probability" was .475.
Next, I wanted to calculate the probability of being successful 19 out of 24 trials, each with a .475 probability of success. To do this, I have to calculate the binomial distribution. See below.
P(k) = (n!/k!(n-k)!p^k (1 - p)^(n - k)
Where n = number of trials (bets)... k = number of successful attempts (hits)... p="true probability"
Based on my math, the odds of Bob having this run by luck alone is 0.0012.
In other words, if handicappers were all full of shit (I'm not saying they are - but let's pretend).. It would take about 821 of them posting their picks before we ran into a Bob.
Caveat #1 - These are not truly independent events. The formula assumes they are. But they are close enough.
Caveat #2 - I used an average probability (.474) instead of representing each bet's individual probability. This is a shortcut, because I'm tired and lazy and don't feel like figuring out the more precise method. But this would only matter if Bob's misses were disproportionately high/low probability bets. They weren't very different (.460 vs .474). Not worth the extra work.
Caveat #3 - I know handicappers aren't just operating off of pure luck. But I do track several of them with spreadsheets, and they rarely beat the juice over time. This is what made Bob's run so fun. I'll be interested to see if he beats the juice going forward.
submitted by Erundur: "Gay "marriage" hurts people. People have lost their livelihoods to gay marriage, have been sued for not participating in them. Children are forced to be adopted, and raised by them, despite their right to a mother and father. It changes the very foundation of our society, which is marriage. Marriage is about children, not feeling good about oneself, or being recognized by the government. Aside from the people obviously dragged into this debacle, such as any one who provides services to the public, who can say what long term effects such a radical change will have on society?"
AdmiralJones42: Alright, this is where you've pissed me off. You should be disturbed by how militant and grossly twisted your perception of "social freedom" is. Guess what buddy? Regardless of where I stand, not everyone agrees that abortion is not cold-blooded murder. Science hasn't ruled on it, society hasn't ruled on it, and the law hasn't ruled on it outside of one Supreme Court ruling that, no matter where you fall on the issue, was clearly a case of judicial fiat and legislating from the bench. As LIBERTARIANS we believe in an individual's right to life, liberty, and property, but who the hell are you to tell us what is and is not an individual? Your "left-wing" hive mind is nothing short of intensely disturbing. Don't agree? Get out. Have an alternative opinion? Get out. Want to dissent? Get out. Dare to mention the possibility that abortion might not be ok because of your philosophical belief that it is infringing on the rights of another human being? Get up against the wall, because you're not a true libertarian. What the hell is wrong with you? You have the gall to ask me why my party is even a party? That's not just an affront to me, that's a slap in the face to me and every single one of our hundreds of members. You should be completely and totally ashamed of yourself that you would even dare to go after my INTEGRITY IN MY BELIEFS just because I happen to not totally align with A DIFFERENT PARTY on ONE ISSUE. Crawl back to your little hole in the ground and keep covering up your ears and flinging your own feces at anyone who would deign to violate the sanctity of Democratic "social freedom". You're a disgrace to everyone who flairs themselves in blue.
Irelandball: SEVAG FUCKING STOP IT YOU SHITHEAD. I AM DONE WITH THIS I HAVE MY LIFE RUINED! RUINED! YOU FUCKING TRACKED DOWN AND STALKED MY WIFE, YOU DRAGGED HER INTO MY PROBLEMS. SHE WORRIES ABOUT ME ALL THE TIME BECAUSE IM SO FUCKING DEPRESSED AND DESTROYED FORM THIS SHIT. THIS ISNT HEALTHY!!!!
"WELL OF COURSE I FUCKING AM!!!!! DOES YOUR PEANUT BRAIN HONESTLY MAKE YOU THINK YOU CAN GET AWAY WITH ALL THE SHIT YOU'VE DONE TO ME AND COUNTLESS OTHERS, ALWAYS TRY TO ACCUSE ME OF STUPID LITTLE SHIT, AND THEN LAUGH IT OFF AS MEMEING. WELL FUCK YOU! DELETE YOUR ACCOUNT AND LET US ALL HAVE PEACE!"
KNOCK IT OFF YOU CUNT HEADS! IM TIRE OF WALKING INTO HERE AND HAVING A CONSTANT ANTI ME CIRCLEJERK! ITS THE SAME OLD SITUATION! IS THIS A FUCKING MOTLEY CRUE SONG?
ExpiredAlphabits: Their backgrounds, their cultures, the fairy tales they were taught as kids, the moral lessons they were taught as they grew up, all of that informs their biases. And those notions are not rational ones. They were ingrained in them without any formal logical background. And when they make a decision, all of that goes into the calculation of which direction they choose to go. They do this calculation subconsciously. They aren't even aware of what goes into the math they do. When they give the reasons for their decisions, they don't realize that this is what informs their decisions. If they gave clear and logically explained reasoning, I wouldn't have a problem. But the Triumvirate never gave clear reasons. Having the Triumvirate state their political leanings might give some clue as to which biases went into their decisions. And it would demand that they give clear reasons so that the people could not claim that the left-leaning triumvirate gave clemency to left-leaning members because of modbias.
"Do you feel that? That fear? That question: "is this against the rules?" And the fear of what might happen if it is. It is that fear which keeps us bound within lines no one drew. We fear stepping past a line which does not exist. And we fear the unknown punishment which may be laid upon us.
Or perhaps it is just a spectre. Perhaps there is no line. Perhaps there will be no punishment. Perhaps the only thing which grants the moderators the power to keep you within undrawn lines is your own fear. Perhaps the moderators are using your own emotions against you.
Likely, I will be punished for this. Not because I have crossed a line. There is none. But because I have challenged authority. I will be punished to be made into an example. "Anyone who crosses undrawn lines will be punished!" they yell. They hope to enforce your faith in the lines. They hope to make the spectre real. But you and I know that it is not.
There are rules. They are written by the moderators. There are also unwritten rules. Those are written by fear. Challenge them. Challenge yourself. Stand up and say that you will be bound only by established, democratically chosen rules. And have the courage to demand that moderators be bound to written rules.
There is no line which demands I follow finnishdude's request and I will be punished. There is no line that the demands I be punished, so why are the mods able to punish me? They can only if you believe that spectres exist.
Stand up for what is right. Demand the mods write down the rules. Demand that the mods follow them."
Idris: I don’t see why we need to give a fourteen year old with ego problems and an inability to be civil on Skype the vice presidency.
KHL: And who the fuck are you, do you know who I am, or do you know the shit that I have witnessed. The shit my family has been going through because the government would rather fund some shitwad sheboon or some dindu's 58th fucking child? Nooooo, or what my people are going through? The endless flooding of my homelands with third world trash that have destroyed whole white towns and turned them into a third world shit show, the endless programing of my people to hate themselves which is obviously representative here with the negative shit people have to say about themselves with this massive white guilt complex that a majority of you have. Or the forced normalization of genetic suicide. There is so much more but you have no fucking clue, you are living in a wonderful mindset free of an sort of suffering
Who is some overweight fat fuck in real life who has no friends in real life so he joins an online chat to fufil that deep empty feeling of having no one to talk to other than his she-beast mother and his goat fucking father (speaking about Amusei)
RossVDebs: You tell me...that these people...should GO HOME! SAY IT! SAY IT TO ME, COMMANDER! BECAUSE RIGHT NOW, YOU ARE STATING THAT THESE MEN AND WOMEN, WHO HAVE SAVED YOUR COMRADES IN THE PAST....GET to leave...and go back to the hellhole they came from, kicking and screaming...rounded up...LIKE ANIMALS! LIKE ANIMALS! SAY IT! LIKE ANIMALS! IN THE "JIGGABOO CHAINS" THEY CAME IN!
Cinci: "Quite a bit of salt I see spewing from your mouth and in your words. You ask who am I? I am a citizen of the United States that has a right to criticize the actions of other private individuals. Just as you can of mine and you have done so of others in this simulation, once in a musical number in fact.
You can disagree with my opinion as much as you want but I reserve the right to say this. You're actions are detrimental to the right. Your actions promote opportunism rather than cooperation. Your actions says in the greater context of this simulation that if you don't agree with a party form a new one. It forgoes any attempt at reconciliation or working to fix a party. Just so that you all can play leadership once the situation you wrought has turned against you.
That is why I have the right to speak. That is why I have the right to criticize. If you wish to abridge me of these rights then I deem thee a tyrant."
MDK: Gohte, your failure to understand anything about how people feel is incredible? Do you even think about others? Same with you Coat? Do you understand not everything is just the text on your computer? That real people are here? That you are not this cool kid? You can hide behind these usernames but you are a coward. You bully and harrass memebers and take everything for a joke. You guys are so immature it is unreal. After I write then you will make memes out of it and attack me more. If you can't be a person of this community that acts in any form of proffessional manner get out.
Idris: You let your little bitch Riley do whatever he wants, terrorizing, bullying, snitching, trolling, for months and now you crack down on us?And then you claim to care so much and you claim to listen to our feedback? Fuck off guys
weird RLP guy: My ideology is easily squared up with genuine communism, yours on the other hand...
This bizzare "euro-communism" advocated by some here is what Lenin called an infantile disorder. Communist states have long standingly blended both nationalism and naturalism. I am as left wing as they come, I simply haven't bought into the insanity of the contemporary fake left and hold true to genuine Marxist and Communist principles. Read some of my posts on the fake left globalists.
You don't have to like it, but everything I believe in and espouse is Communism. It would be a mistake to expel a genuine communist when the Socialist party claims to accept "many different political views and beliefs".
If anyone wishes to actually challenge me on this please do so here. I would be happy to engage in debate and discussion and prove to you why I am right. I would not consider many here to be socialists but merely followers of the fake left gaystapo posing as 'socialists'. Prove me wrong.
I request a trial. Not just a vote of the central committee. I request to be given opportunity to make my case for the validity of my communist ideology against the fake left poisonous ideology of left liberalism.
weird RLP guy (pt. 2): The recent witchhunt initiated by realnyebevan is completely unbecoming and thus I believe warrants a vote of expulsion.
realnyebevan has chosen to initiate a vote to remove me, a genuine and committed communist for opposing his own deviationist liberal interpretation of socialism. For in actuality his brand of "socialism" is mere capitalism.
The disease of liberal "socialism" has taken a foot hold across many traditionally communist and socialist parties in the world. Instead of focusing on advancing the cause of the working class, liberal socialists such as realnyebevan instead focus on non-issues such as gay marriage, open borders, abortion, and so on.
Why do so called "socialists" get funded by capitalist globalists such as George Soros? Because capitalism requires the free movement of labour, the contemporary liberal "socialists" who receive and do the bidding of globalists have always been cast aside from socialist movements as being traitors to the working class.
Carib: Toasty? The cuck who said he was “lookin forward to asking questions” in my hearing but instead caved to idris’ witch hunt against anyone that has ever slighted him?
Toasty, the cuck who didn’t realize that as AG I am now moving forward to dismantle his shitty MoP law using precedent that was set by the socialists themselves, and if he had a backbone and didn’t just take orders from Idris, I wouldn’t have the power to sue? But since he can’t think on his own, I retain that power as AG and will be using it? That toasty?
JJCreskoff: You are the most irrelevant, prude and pretentious piece of shit I have ever seen on
/ModelUSGov. No one knows who you are outside of this chat, and the only reason people notice you is because you act like a complete fool. You're more hated and irrelevant than IDRIS! Get off your high horse you irrelevant prick, no one knows who you are or cares. You just go around flaming people and baiting them and laugh at your own misery and suffering whilst taking it out on others. Get a fucking life, or perhaps attend church for once in your sorry life.
Mitch (about PGF): you are by far one of the most incompetent legislators I have ever come across in my time. And I've dealt with just as shitty republicans who can't write a bill. How have you managed to make yourself canonically get your self into dumb shit, lose to pacman twice, make the house coalition look like idiots trying to defend you, and after all this time: you still cannot even write a bill with the grammar situation being equivalent to a Lovecraftian abomination. Or any bill is wholly flawed, not only in execution. But its entirety wholly unconstitutional. So no. You are absolutely not the most qualified.
Ovarix (to Idris): Dude your budgets are legit worse; honestly you are a living breathing incel if you make those budgets. Like I can imagine Idris hating women because he is butt fuck ugly. Based on the fact he spends his time on the sim throwing meaningless numbers around. Idris is one of the few people who seem like they hate themselves genuinely, like Idris hates himself so much he is willing to associate himself with William despite being a socialist. He is so fake, he is also not black as he claimed. Like half of idris's ideas are retarded in all honesty. Everyone knows he's a white person pretending to be black In voice he bashes Jews a lot, so I wouldn't be surprised if Idris was at the unite the right rally.
Mashup: Hear, hear! This is a great bill! Alright, this is where you've pissed me off. You should be disturbed by how militant and grossly twisted your perception of "social freedom" is. Guess what buddy? Gay "marriage" hurts people. People have lost their livelihoods to gay marriage, have been sued for not participating in them. Children are forced to be adopted, and raised by them, despite their right to a mother and father. I would like to now interject with meaningful discussion. I think that DIDICET, please stop insulting me and my other party members. It's kind of annoying to have you bitching at us 24/7. Nice ad hominem, dumbass You let your little bitch PARTIALLY KRITKAL do whatever he wants, terrorizing, bullying, snitching, trolling, nice ad hominem dumbass, for months and now you crack down on us? Hear, hear! And then you claim to care so much and you claim to listen to our feedback? Fuck off guys gives all of you balls, but in a fucking government simulation you'll bow down like bitches FUCKING STOP IT YOU SHITHEAD. I AM DONE WITH THIS I HAVE MY LIFE RUINED! FUCK OFF SOLOMON RUINED! YOU FUCKING TRACKED DOWN AND STALKED MY WIFE, YOU DRAGGED HER INTO MY PROBLEMS. SHE WORRIES ABOUT ME ALL THE NICE HOMINEM DUMBASS TIME BECAUSE IM SO FUCKING DEPRESSED AND DESTROYED FORM THIS SHIT. THIS ISNT HEALTHY!!!!
Evan C.: Hello, all! My name is Evan C., and I'm running for the Civic Party's PMC!
As a party, we have so much to do, and so much to accomplish! I joined this party because of its strong commitment to reform, simplicity, economics, and indeed - pragmatism! However, we still have work to becoming the best we can be, and if you're looking for the guy to whip things into shape and make the most effective policy in MUSG, I'm your pick!
So, how do we get further in our goals of reform, and how to we continue the Civic Surge further? Well, here's my three-point plan to get the Civics to be the most pragmatic party ever imagined.
Ben: [speaking to Riley] You are a miserable person and an insufferable edgelord (your prof pic is Martin shkreli for Pete sake). If I were head nod, screw the constitution, you'd be banned so fast you couldn't begin to count to one, and if I were kicked out because of that act so be it.
Zach: No one has a right to suck dick. You are permitted to suck dick because the people as a whole have come together to develop advanced society. The only way to maintain a peaceful and orderly modern society is when everyone pitches in. Fail to do this and you will be left to fend for yourself.
GoldenCapitalist (to Idris) You need to have more respect for members of the Assembly, Governor. I am trying to make this a deliberative body, not one-party rule with you and Lorath in cahoots at keeping all minorities oppressed. I am fighting the power, and that power is YOU. I thought socialists were supposed to stand for equality for all. Turns out they believe the old adage "There was equality for all, but some were a little more equal than others." You don't care about the people of this Commonwealth, nor do you care about representing them. All you and Lorath have done is oppress, oppress, and oppress, stifling any and all opposition. I've tried working with your party, reaching out to find compromises and workable agreements, and I either get ignored or rebuffed. Your party has no interest in doing anything but solidifying yourselves as a one-party state where you persecute anyone who disagrees with you. That's frankly sickening, and such a perversion of democracy that I'm not even sure what you are even doing here in this sim.
Docnedkelly: Look at you,
Viktard! You’re the big man on campus! You can throw your weight around to show other people who the boss is
Viktard: "Hello fellow Democrats! I am very, VERY proud to be a member of this party and furthermore I wish to make it the absolute best it can be! The biggest problem this party is facing is a negative flow of young members!! We are turning a loss more than we are gaining leaving a dangerous level of new members of this party. We may have gained ground this election with a prominent quantity of support, but if we don’t act now we will witness a steady decay in our voters in future elections! This is where I want to fix our party and make it even stronger. If elected this will be the sole issue I will focus my time too, no other candidate here will get into detail on the “issues” that face this party and therefore can’t help the chairman lead it into the future. We may have achieved electoral success, but that won’t mean jack if we can’t bring in a new generation of democrats to run for office and to vote for us. No other candidate running has a clear vision for a bigger, stronger and united party than I act! Which is why I have decided to toss my hat in the ring to become a deputy, I won’t let this party down nor will I fall inactive in my duties!! My Experience is little as I am really new to this SIM (In fact, only 3 is months) but the vision and dedication should outweigh experience! We need a deputy who will always put the party first and a deputy that will have a clear and strong VISION of the future! To speak on my past experiences I was confirmed as Secretary of the Air Force and then later I became a state legislator (For the great Atlantic Commonwealth!) And now I am a newly elected Representative from West Appalachia. Although limited in experience I do believe I am a very qualified candidate to be one of the party’s deputies! Thank You!" -
viktard Taco (about ncontas): Please! The only work you do is napping when you should be legislating! Has there ever been a more inactive congressman?
Nothing wrong: val, panhead, stalin, big boss, jahalmighty, IR, hitler, pol pot, baruch goldstein, sherman, palpatine, the USSR, trotsky, nate, the founding fathers, jefferson, hasbighands, sean, sheets, japan, smitty, oblomov, the mods, vindi, jute, duce, balth, darwin, trump, pinochet, coat, apott, russia, allende, john brown, franco, petain, robespierre, david cameron, paul krugman, timanfya, brian williams, didi, the CSA, lenin, wade boggs, central banks, TNA, spez, obama, fidel, ayn rand, batista, mccarthy, the events board, castro, spindleton, romney, north korea, leif ericson, elizabeth warren, the KKK, orthodoxy, solomon, nixon, the pipeline constructors, pontius pilate, bernie, thomas dewey, henry george, the kaiser, ken bone, CCM, chamberlain, s1ngm1ng, KHL, assad, hillary, nat turner, madison, the cheka, javert, demon james, AJ, kerbogha, martin shkreli, satan, ataturk, keemstar, the PGP, lucifer, reckoner, lee harvey oswald, sevag, vak, socialism, weebs, kryoxz, david, harambe, snowden, aaron burr, von steuben, bill clinton, communists,
atheism, homura, ronnie, john maynard keynes, hamilton, imperialism, israel, islam, brandon, hamas, mao, FDR, the rich, america, republicans, vibe, mussolini, the federal reserve, edison, guy fawkes, florida, freikorps, the IRA, populists, farage, mugabe, waywardwit, wahhabis, lexus, rumsfeld, kissinger, suleiman, standard oil, the federalists, saddam, joan of arc, nestorius, kim jong-un, truman, mcgovern, rhodesia, ian smith, marx, charles koch, bernanke, hoxha, ed_san, judas iscariot, OJ, ben-gurion, oedipus, jack kevorkian, fewbuffalo, randomkdebater, kahane, vowels, ale, the kuomintang, hoover, pepe, martin luther, rhodie, kovr, njdeh, george wallace, richard spencer, pokarnor, bmanv1, ajamu baraka, the north carolina GOP, the black panthers, the falangists, the ottomans, sweden, duterte, the british, evan, tchaikovsky, kataeb, tojo, ML, and jar jar did nothing wrong
Nate: hey RLP. go fuck yourselves. no, fuck them. they are partisan fucks. I am one of the most left members of the libs, and you guys want to cuck me. just me. Not the libs. Just fucking me. fuck you guys. if you thought I had a vendetta against you, guess. what. motherfuckers. I will whip every goddamn party against you. If you want to get fucking pety and block me from committees, I will fuck up your sim potential. just you wait.
No_MF_Challenge: I think the obvious would be that I'm fairly anti-capitalist. In today's society I believe we need a mixture of Capitalism and Socialism. Although the reason I'm a member of RLP is I think socialism is the 'answer' for humanity as a whole, especially as technology advances.
Fewbuffalo: Good Day, My name is
fewbuffalo and I am the creator of the CSS used on
/globalpowers. It has come to my attention that your community has copied my work. In more specific terms, The Flairs and other features like the flag flairs. I did not consent for them to be used. I have giving you 24 hours before I begin further legal action as this is my work which I did not allow to be used here.
Sevag (to Idris): You don't seem to understand, we are not parliamentarians, we are revolutionaries. We don't give a fuck about parlimentary or liberal democracies because it is nothing but an illusion. Any threats you make against us will only make us stronger. We don't fear your party. We don't fear you Idris. We seek to destroy the system for the good of the workers, not within the system to achieve nothing but the oppression of the global working class. I will say this again, we do not fear you.
Ali: The foundations of economics are mathematics, anyone who has cracked open an actual economics book in their entire life knows that. Where policy and economics intersect is interpetation, as data can be interpreted in so many ways and twisted stupidly by political "economists" with an agenda to push! But in essence, always, economics is a mathematical field, and all the people who say otherwise are either dumb or are pushing the same agenda political "economists" are. Economics is statistics, data collection and analysis, and variable discrimination, NOT interpreting information to fit into your worldview!!!!!!
Duce: The death of progress is moderation. We will NEVER sell out for cheap political gain. If you want a Governor who isn't a CUCK, vote for DuceGiharm. Otherwise, vote for def- oops, he's gone! I mean Vak
Viktard (to David): Dear David,
I know our past has been complicated and one filled of drama and my rude remarks. I come to express how deeply sorry I am towards how I treated you. You are a person who seeks to protect the image of the party and the current administration and it was not within my right to challenge you. I hope that although I will no longer be a Democratic party member that we can move forward in our relationship. Being clerks we need to work as 1 team not a bunch of individuals divided on our past therefore I am looking to the future where we can be friends and members of the team who work together instead of fighting over petty arguments. I’m sorry about the deputy DNC elections where I attacked your idea’s of the future in such a harsh way and i’m deeply sorry any action I have taken to this point as caused you to dislike me. I hope we can move past the bridge and become on better terms as I hold no grudges or hatred towards you in any capacity.
Thanks, Hope we can get to know each other better
Viktard
Sevag: Party Under New Leadership
Or I guess in this case just leadership since there was no leadership in the first place.
Yeah I'm the supreme leader now (evidenced by me being the top mod) and you all have to do what I say now.
bomalia is my right hand man
Autarch: Yes, please tell me how a Socialist-Sunrise alliance worked out the last time you tried to coup me. :rofl:
Really, I don't mind y'all trash-talking political opponents. I know there's no lost-love between us, but the sheer underhanded animus here is quite astounding. The fact that Eddie -- a sim friend of mine with whom I've collaborated on a number of bills -- planted false hit-pieces in Fox News, or that the Socialist Party was so intent on splitting the Democrats that they attempted to suborn our own party chair, or else conspire with the Sunrise Coalition, reveals a lot about your party's mindset. You people just can't stand ideological differences. When a party which shares some of your socially liberal goals, and can compromise with you on economics and the environment, begins contradicting your mad revolution, you wish it's death with every fiber of your body. You lose all sense of context. You're willing to help bring to power your foremost ideological enemies to keep the Democrats in your clutches. It's quite disgusting actually. Don't get me wrong, I like some people in your party, even if they've been implicated in this; I might disagree with Socialism, but I have nothing against individual Socialists. Idris, who worked so hard to come to a budget compromise, DC, DocNed, even Boss and Eddie -- they have a different vision for this country but they're at least able to put the good of the nation above personal gain, above political revolution. But the tactics your party employs, the lies, the crookedness, the perversion of the political process, it repels me. You repel me.
Animus: But sviridovt, don't you understand? God is not actually a supreme being. He is ongabongo dodongo, The Fish That Dreams It Is A Man. He is actually greater than any supreme being! I used to think he was a mega-supreme being, but have since calculated that he is actually an ultra-supreme being, and that his power level is over 9000!
By reading stuffy old philosophers I have gained the ability to spout tautological bullshit so that you can never pin me down and nothing I say is ever falsifiable! This is because God is ultra domingo contra ceteris paribus flamingo— A Croatian Lipstick That Has Apotheosized Into A Divine Manta Ray.
I need only tell myself that I am the only person on earth that has ever been to college, or maybe read Kant or Heidegger, and that I am the only person on the internet who bought into the Transcendentalists! See, Kant thought that man's reason was insufficient to prove the existence of God, and I didn't really stop to think about what that implies, because the next step was going balls deep into ontology to think about what it actually means for something to exist, because when I can't prove God exists to people on the internet I get sulky and need to redefine what "existence" means!
You see, St. Anselm wrote that God is the thing that you can't conceive of anything greater than, and that such a thing must exist in your mind! And I kind of bogged down on that for a minute because it kind of sounds like implying that God is imaginary, but my priest helped me get past it by explaining that God is really cthulhu ftaghn klaatu barada nickto— the Space Lizard Whose Eggs Hatch Black Holes.
It all works out though, because God is the thing you can't imagine anything greater than, and if God only exists in the mind then I can imagine something greater than that— God existing for real and playing Madden with me on my couch! Therefore God must exist, because if I can imagine something greater, then it's not God yet, only I'm sitting here with Player 2 plugged in and ready to go, and he won't hurry up and pick a team!
I don't see anything wrong at all with this argument, nor do I think that it's maybe begging the question a little bit! And I'm not going to consider the fact that maybe things that exist are actually flawed because they necessarily have limits by virtue of existing within the rules of our rational, scientific world, which is provably going to cease to exist at some point, and so maybe something even more perfect than a God that exists is a God that only exists in our imagination, because there nothing can put limits on Him!
And so... wait... What? I seem to have Pascaled myself. You know, that feel when you're forced to concede that believing in God cannot be supported by any evidence or rational argument, but that you're going to continue to believe anyway because your imagination has kind of psyched you out about how bad hell might be? And so you're going to profess belief with a heart full of secret doubt because you're playing the odds, but forgetting that there are infinitely many non-Abrahamic deities who will punish you for your non-belief in them by making you spend eternity as mahalo station wagon verite et vestibule et vomitorium— "The Floss That One Uses For One's Butt."
No! No! Reverse course, brain! HMMMMMMM. Yeeees Jesus loves meeeee... Block out all doubts! Someone call the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith! Satan has sunk my battleship!
Didicet (to IBY): MY FUCKING GOD, YOU MEAN THE PRESIDENT HAD THE AUDACITY TO SLEEP WHEN GLORIOUS IBITEYOU DEMANDED HIS PRESENCE?? HOLY MOTHER OF GOD, HOW TREASONOUS OF HIM, AMIRITE???
To answer your IMPERATIVE question, no, we won't go to "war", whatever the hell that means in this simulation, over a letter like the one Sweden sent. I was affirming our support for Britain, a response requested by the mods. I wasn't going to post anything about it before they fucking pestered me about it.
One thing I find disturbing though, besides harassing me because I wasn't at your immediate beck and call, is your complete disregard for Britain, the nation we have the closest cultural ties with and with whom we share a special relationship, because they elected parties via democracy that they wanted in power. Basically, Britain must conform to you. Fuck their choice in the matter, amirite?
You also had NO CLUE that Sweden wasn't even in fucking NATO! You don't know who our closest allies are, and are willing to abandon the ones you do (God do I hope you do) know are close allies because they don't agree with you 110% of the time!
Now if you'll excuse me, I have to get to class, unless Her Majesty desires my presence for some other reason? No matter I'm sure. You'll spam my fucking inbox with stupidity regardless.
submitted by Which one is usually the volume of the spray of a nasal spray ? I recently used an etazene spray believing it was 0,2 per spray. Well today I measured it on 0,4/0,8/1 ml with two different sprays from the same vendor. Respectively I always had results such as 8 - 16 - 20 sprays and even slightly more since sometimes the spray “jams” and it looks like he cannot reach the last volume... now I guess it dispenses 0,05 ml per spray... this sounded oddly low to me but given etazene potency it makes sense ... are my calculation right or do you think is impossible for a spray to dispense such a low volume ?
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