Es begann alles mit dieser verkackten AufLinie Casino Werbung wo jedesmal am Ende gesagt wird "gilt nur für Typen aus Schleswig-Holstein". JA GEIL! LEB ICH ETWA DORT?!?!? WAS MACHT EUCH DENKEN ICH INTERESSIERE MICH FÜR DIESEN SCHEIß WENN ICH NICHT IN SCHLESWIG FICKEN HOLSTEIN WOHNE?!!!! Ich weiß, dass ist nur, weil Schleswig-Holstein das erste Bundesland ist, das AufLinie Casinos zulässt, aber warum zum fick darf die Werbung außerhalb gezeigt werden? Ganz davon zu schweigen das AufLinie Casinos eh verboten gehören. Bei Spielautomaten schaut wenigstens noch wer hin, aber bei den kack Netzseiten, welche in Steueroasistan sind, kann niemand kontrollieren ob alles mit rechten Dingen zugeht. Warum gibt es keinen Rationalitätsparagraphen, der so eine Scheiße unterbindet? Das geht ja bei der Schrumpfflation erst so richtig los!! Wenn Firmen den Inhalt des Produktes verkleinern und den Preis erhöhen. Eigentlich ist es ja nicht mal so schlecht da das größtenteils bei Müllessen passiert, aber komm schon! Das gehört bestraft. Besondere Maoam und Konsorten mit dem unendlichen Verpackungs Müll
How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know. So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.
THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:
Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...
ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.
Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects. Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all...
Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):
https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
$APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
$CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
$TLRY gets a UK deal
$TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price. THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:
NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.
IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF- do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.
SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.
Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent. Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof:https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
Am I the only one who feels like the heist was really overhyped for the amount of $$ it gives? The doomsday heist pays way more money and I spent way less time doing the preps etc
Well the long awaited Casino DLC Has finally arrived and....so far it really kinda sucks. Yes we could get more content via a slow drip feed, but if the past "Big" updates are any indication of what to expect, then we will probably get a few more cars, new t-shirts and maybe a new OP vehicle for those that suck at the game and need to feel like big boys...or girls...or whatever you wanna be. (Looking at you Oppressor MK2) then we will get jack shit until the next big-long awaited, disappointing update. So instead of giving us new properties to waist our money on, why not give us some updates to already existing content. This is one example of something I would love to see: Update the bunker. In particularly and specifically the research. Give us some new stuff to unlock like, 1) Rail Gun! Make it reasonable. Give it 2 to 4 rounds max, make the ammo super expensive and make it only reloadable via the MOC or Terrorbyte. This will limit griefing (from people like me lol) but this will help balance out the Oppressor MK2 problem. 2) New body armor. Light, medium and heavy. Make it worth having armor. Give it some real resistance. But make it fair. Make it so the heavier the armor, the slower you are, but also make it useful in the sense that you can still climb, jump and drive cars. 3) New vehicle mods for old cars. Do what you did with the Duke of Death and the Tampa. Make armored versions of old cars. Give cars like the Duke armored chassis like you did with the insurgent. Maybe even add a weapon like a gun and/or mines. This would bring new life to old favorites that have kinda gone out of date. 4) New MK2 weapons. Like the grenade launcher MK2! New rounds like, cluster rounds, incendiary rounds and most of all tear gas rounds. (Tear gas is one of the most underutilized and underappreciated weapons in the game. Great for flushing out the enemy so you can set them up for the kill.) So let me know if you would like to see this or if you would like to see other updates to old content.
Could anyone help me in searching for a website that’s deals exclusively about casino reviews and such? One to three suggestions would be very helpful, puhleezzz, TIA.
Hi everyone, could anyone help me in looking for a website that specialises on casino reviews and related stuff? To be specific, what I mean is online casinos, eh. It would be very handy if casino peeps could recommend me one or two sites; those that have good, detailed, and reliable information... I hope that the reviews aren’t too biased and partisan. Well, if you’re a casino player like me, you’d know what I meant by that xD Thanks!
Could anyone help me in searching for a website specialising on casino reviews and such? One or two would be very handy, TIA.
Hi everyone, could anyone help me in looking for a website that specialises on casino reviews and related stuff? To be specific, what I mean is online casinos, eh. It would be very handy if casino peeps could recommend me one or two sites; those that have good, detailed, and reliable information. Thanks so much in advance! PS – one more detail for my request though, I hope that the reviews aren’t too biased. :D
Could anyone help me in searching for a website specialising on casino bonuses and such? One to three would be very handy, TIA.
Hi everyone, could anyone help me in looking for a website that specialises on casino bonuses and related stuff? To be specific, what I mean is online casinos, eh. It would be very handy if casino peeps could recommend me one or two sites; those that have good, detailed, and reliable information. Thanks so much in advance! PS – one more detail for my request though, I hope that the bonuses aren’t too crazy and off-the-roof. Well, if you’re a casino player like me, you’d know what I meant by that xD
[Voiced scene here] [The watery depths of darkness greets us.]Guda: ...Huh... [The scene shifts to what appears to be the Moon Cell.]Guda: ...This place is... [Accompanied by static, Kiara in her third ascension's mermaid cosplay appears before us for a brief second before she disappears and we find ourselves in the middle of a city.]Guda: ??? [Once again, Kiara appears, this time in her first ascension swimsuit.]Sessyoin Kiara: Fufu. The meal at the restaurant just now was very delicious. As expected of Master; you have a discerning eye, or perhaps I should say you have heavenly luck. At this point, I'm almost fully sated. Guda: [1] Sessyoin Kiara-san...! Kiara: ...Aah. You're calling my name with such a smile on your face again... I am happy about your feelings, but please have patience. We are still in the middle of town...right? Guda: [2] You're Sessyoin Lily's...! Kiara: Fufufu. Keep your feigning of ignorance in moderation. I can't guarantee what'll happen otherwise in all sorts of meaning, you see? Kiara: Now then, since we have filled our stomach, shall we visit our favorite beach? I finally changed into a swimsuit, but I could only try it out at a lake... The one who invited me to the sea while I was lamenting that...was none other than you. I was so happy, I couldn't sleep last night. I might be unable to fall asleep ever again♡ Ju~st kidding☆ Fufufufufu! Since it's a vacation on Valentine's, I'm in high spirits. It might be out of season, but this is a garden of pleasure without any discomfort. That rumored Altar of Perpetual and Everlasting Summer that I've heard of... Umm, if I remember correctly, Luluhawa was its name? I absolutely won't lose to such a wicked thing. I've snuck in there and done my research, after all. Guda: I see. So today was Valentine's. / I see, you are the night time's Sesshouin... Kiara: Yes, of course. Please, spend this holiday so you'll have no regrets afterwards, Master. [We spend the day on the seashore with Kiara, and then, at night...]Kiara: Swimming at the beach where no one else is around, enjoying the sunlight, and engaging in conversations as we listen to the sound of the waves... It was a very pleasant holiday, Master. I've returned my childlike innocence as I frolicked about. Aah, but, being unable to order a few drinks...would be my only regret. Downing your glasses all night will be a thing for when you're a little older♡ ...Oh. Putting that aside... I might be giving it to you at the very end, but would you accept this...? It's chocolate for Valentine's. [Kiara's choco acquired!]Guda: I'll gladly accept it! / I see, it slipped my mind! Kiara: You being pleased with it is all that matters to me. To commemorate this Summer, I tried to imitate a flower ornament. It might be some plain chocolate compared to what you received from the other Servants... ────Aah, however. If you still find it insufficient...if it still does not satisfy you...if you still want more... There might be more after this...perhaps? Guda: [1] No such thing, this is more than enough! Kiara: ────I see. Then this is where it ends. I have been turned down. Yes, Valentine's only lasts one day. It's not something to repeat over and over again for several days. Then, let us return to Chaldea, Master. You have no need for the tranquility of the depths. Please, join hands with everyone and take back our great planet, okay? [GOOD END] Guda: [2] ...You are right, it might be a little lacking... Kiara: ────You wished for it, right? Then close your eyes for a bit. Let my following version guide you even deeper. How cruel to say that pleasant affairs end in an instant. If they can continue, let them do so for eternity. That is what everyone honestly wishes for. [Suddenly, everything goes white. Then, accompanied by static, images of the Moon Cell and the previous city flashes before our eyes and we find ourselves in an Oriental capital.]Guda: ────Huh? [We hear the sound of an approaching bike and Kiara skids to a halt before us in her second ascension's getup.] Kiara: Oh my. My preferred unsightly pig Master has been foun~d♡ ────Ahem. That's not it. Stop there, you bitch (if female)/swine (if male). Get on your knees and raise your hands. You aren't allowed to resist. If you move even a little, I'll smack you in the ass (if female)/between your legs (if male) with this baton. Guda: This is also Kiara-san...? / So next is Kiara Police! [Kiara smiles before she reverts to her previous stern expression.]Kiara: Shut up. There is no chance for you to explain or a right for you to vindicate yourself. You should have learned in compulsory education that in this town being a Master itself is a sin, right? Moreover, to think you'd be leisurely walking on the main street...are you not aware that you're a piece of trash? You────know what's going to happen next, right? Guda: Perhaps...going along voluntarily to be questioned by the police? / Could it be...I'll be forcibly detained? Kiara: Yes, a tiny piece of trash belongs in the trashcan. A miserable pig belongs in the pigpen. And so, you're under arrest~♡ Game over for you, best regards? [More choco acquired!]Kiara: Fufufu. I wonder if you'll like this handcuff-shaped chocolate. Now then, the continuation will be happening in solitary confinement, plenty of it. This Saint Graph does not adhere to the master-servant relationship. It is the form a ruthless ruler. I will thoroughly train that lax attitude of yours without any mercy. Yes, even if it will take a year or a decade. As you wished, forever, right? Guda: Eh...? / A decade...? [Our vision goes white once again.]Kiara: Don't you find it strange? Why are the bubbles the Shen spews forth called mirages on the surface? If the bubbles reflect the insides of the shell, what appears on the surface should be simply the clam's muscles. So then, the reason why oases and capitals emerge────is that what's inside the Shen is literally a castle (read as town). [1] An ideal world envisioned by the people of the secular world. An earthly paradise without any discomfort. A perfectly convenient and infinitely vast city. This is the insides of the mirage. A different world contained within the palace of the clam. Even so──── For me, it is nothing but a cramped bed, you see? [Accompanied by the sound of static, we find ourselves at a pool.]Kiara: How about something of this aspect this time? Though you might already be sick of eating chocolate. [Even more choco acquired!]Kiara: Ufufu. Beaches are great, but pools like this are fine too. Well, since the current is too strong, it is not to my liking... Fortunately, the current me is a mermaid as you can see. No matter how many times you drown or how far you are swept away, I can easily scoop you up, you know, Master? Guda: ............ Kiara: What might be the problem? You seem to be under the weather based on your expression. Could it be...the clam chocolate from before wasn't to your liking? ...As expected, mixing clam with chocolate was dangerous... No, this only happened by a chance, it's just an accident! It's not like I'm better at cooking when I'm in Lily form! ...Oh, that's not what I should be saying. Master? If your stomach hurts, how about we return to the hotel? This is a high-class resort that even has casinos. There is no shortage of entertainment even at the hotel. Guda: It's about time... Kiara: Yes? Guda: If I don't return to Chaldea soon... Kiara: ─────── ─────── ────Then let us do that. Go ahead and return, Master. I won't stop you. That is. If you can escape? [We leave behind Kiara and run through the city, the Moon Cell, the beach, and reach the Oriental capital where we encountered Kiara Police.]Guda: ────pant pant──── ────No good, this city, is way too vast──── [The ground rumbles and *the faint image of Kiara we could see in the sky all this time comes into view and Kiara's voice echoes out.]* Kiara: ────Pfft. Fufu, ufufu, aah, how funny! Just what are you talking about when you are so out of breath? This is an immensely vast world. After all, this is next to my pillow. It is a castle that would be sent flying if I were to blow on it. Guda: ────Just what, is that──── Kiara: After you take refuge in illusions, you won't be able to leave. ...Indeed, I also find it regrettable. To think you'd fall so deep after being bewitched by the sweetness of sugar. I can't view you as Master anymore. You're like an ant that ran around restlessly and separated from its colony. I wonder if I should cover you in chocolate and eat you. [The ground rumbles once again.]Kiara: Fufu, of course, that was just a joke. This is an earthly paradise, inside the dream released by the Shen. If you are fine with empty illusions, here you will be granted tranquility lasting until your death, no, lasting forevermore without you being able to die. Will you disappear along with the illusions in a single breath from me or will you cling to my fingers seeking salvation──── Regardless of what you choose, there is no way for you to return to reality. Resign yourself to your fate, Master. [A pink mist fills our vision.]Kiara: Your fall will lead to the Heaven of Pleasure. The Hell of the woman who captivates her prey. ...Fufu, you wish you hadn't gone to something like the Palace of the Dragon King, right? [BAD END] (Moral of the story: Don't be greedy. Or Kiara will trap you in illusions and toy with you for eternity.)
Bond CE
A Single Summer's Mirage Set Valentine's chocolate from Sessyoin Kiara (MoonCancer). Chocolates matching each stage of ascension are stored inside the Tamateba[2] ......correction, a multi-layered lunch box. You can eat any of the "flowers floating at the waterside", "handcuffs" and "shellfish" that you prefer. However, moderation is important for everything. If you eat just one or two kinds, the boddhisatva will watch over you with a charming smile, but if you display an unsatiable desire where you eat everything at once──── 「Fufufu, what's stored inside the box might not be only chocolate, you know?」 Translator notes: [1] "Mirage" is written with the kanji for "Shen" "emission/spirit/mind" and "building/tower", so mirages are "buildings created of what the Shen emits", I guess? [2] The narration was gonna say Tamatebako before it cut off.
It's fucking great. I wake up happy, I do pretty much whatever I want during the day, I go to sleep happy. I indulge my limited passions and hobbies, I plunge down fascinating rabbit holes of knowledge, I bugger off to places for months at a time (harder with Brexit, you xenophobic malcontents), I spend time with people I want to. I feel smug. I don't have an alarm waking me up, I don't need to take any shit off anyone, I don't burn 90 mins a day on a loud bus screeching stop announcements at 90db in my ear. In the summer I sometimes pop over to the local greenery, have a pint and meal, read a book, soak up the sun. Great stuff. My phone is always on silent. It can wait. People occasionally ask me “what I do all day”. If your imagination is so limited, living in such an incredible time, with so much at your fingertips, that the question even crosses your mind, then carry on working and bitching about it, you don't know how to be happy. “Scipio used to say that he was never less idle than when he had nothing to do “ - Cicero, On Duties.
2How to get there
2.1Difficulty modes
2.1.1Easy mode: Get free university education, get a good job, buy a cheap house
Not too difficult if you were born in 1972. Easy mode is now disabled in the UK. Maybe available in foreign versions of the game, such as in Greece or Denmark.
2.1.2Medium mode: Don't have kids
I swear to god, I have been pretty lucky not to accidentally father a crotch goblin, and believe me, little Goocho often vetoed my brain. Use contraceptives. Notice how all the shit hole countries don't give women control over their reproduction. If I had foolishly crapped out a kid, I would have had to work another 10 years at least I reckon. Ugh. Borrow kids to play with them, and return when they start crying.
2.1.3Hard mode: Have kids
Look, if you are spending 100k or whatever to raise a kid I don't know what to tell you, at least you got laid eh? I hope you enjoy working like I didn't. Seriously, if you have a job you like, great stuff, things will be much easier for you. The impetus to leave it won't be so great. The point of all this is to be happy after all!
2.2Control your costs
Filling your house full of nonsense is consumerism at it's worst. I practice a kind of minimalism. So I don't own a freezer, a cooker or a dish washing machine. Guess what? They will never need repairing or replacing! But I do own an amazing OLED tv, a solid speaker system, loads of films and books. Minimalism is a whole other subject, and attracts the mentally ill who take it to extremes. Spend money on a decent mattress you fools. Subscriptions are death by a thousand cuts, and will weigh you down. However Netflix and Amazon Prime are great. Shades of grey. Screw charities, charity workers get paid salaries and you are supposed to give for free? Nope. Begging scum. “it is only the price of a coffee”, bitch please, I pay 10p a cup for my lovely coffee. Pay your taxes. Don't be a leech on society. Live in a small house. Aldi is great. If you don't get married, you can't get ruinously divorced, . Insurance is generally a scam, if you are drunkenly fucking up so regularly than you need your phone insured, sort your life out. You really need that car? Hmmm. If you are driving to the supermarket and paying for the gym, you are an idiot. Those two cancel each other out. Only unhappy people play the lottery. Buy a decent phone for £200, pay £5 a month for service. You think iFruit users will look down upon you? Comparison is the thief of joy. DIY accomplishments are mentally rewarding, great exercise and cheap – or you can throw money at a problem to make it go away, this is the point of money after all, we sell and buy time with it. Before I buy anything big, I ask myself, is this worth x days sitting in an office for? Spend your money how you like, I am not your mum. Enjoy what you have.
2.3Plan a little
Write down (don't guess) how much you spend a month over a couple of years. For investments, assume inflation cancels out general increase in non distributing equity value. This is all a rough guessing game anyway, don't pretend it isn't. I think there are two ways to look at when you can stop working:
2.3.1Cash drawdown per month until death
If you assume you are going to die around 85 (actuarial tables available online), divide your cash + private pension wealth + state pension amount will pay you until age 85 by the number of months left to live, this tells you how much you can spend a month before you die. Sounds like enough? Investment appreciation means you might have more than that.
2.3.2Cash dividends per month
You have a lumpsum of wealth. Flexible uk pension rules means you no longer need to take the annuity gamble. 4% returns a year seems conservatively doable. Can you live on that? Means you die with a load of cash. Stash it in your silk lined coffin.
2.4Play it safe, but not too safe
Assume laws and taxes will change. Don't count too much on that state pension. If the NHS falls ill itself, you might need some cash to go private. Good luck getting that hip surgery in the next 12 months post covid! If the stock market takes a 10% dump, you must still sleep soundly. Don't live too close to the edge. Assume and hope your parents will spend all their wealth on themselves, having a happy end of life in an old folks home. Points off as a human being for relying on your parent snuffing it for free money. What if your body conks out and you start shitting yourself and have to pay 4k a month to be served Dickensian gruel in a nursing home? Trust in the societal safety net? Work another 5 years just in case? Keep a cyanide pill by the bed? Sell your house I guess? I'm rolling the dice on this one. Maybe dancing in VR and these 50 degree Victorian terrace stairs will keep me fit (or kill me).
2.5Personal Story
Went to Uni, got a Computering degree, got a job I liked, autistic-ally worked at it, got paid lots of money, bought a house at 26 for 48k, parents threw in 10k to get rid of me, paid off the mortgage in 30 months. After 8 years in said job, started to dislike it, took 6 months off work. Worked another 2 years before I got made redundant, 15k for doing nothing? Yes please! Worked about half the time from age 32 to 46 as Contractor scum, in jobs I generally disliked or eventually hated. Had 2-3 years between jobs. Snatching retirement chunks from the future. I figured, why leave retirement until I am too old to enjoy it? Took around 3 months to get a new job each time, I didn't care, I loved not working! Played casino blackjack for a couple of years for ~8 hours a week, made £12k. Shuffling machines have stopped all that now, was bored of it anyway. Decided at 40 I had better get a pension, threw money at it when working. So at 46, when I walked out on the pathetic management at my last gig (FIS Birmingham, you see when you are retired, you really don't have to give a shit!), I had worked for a total of ~15 years, thoroughly enjoyed not working and was sick of working. At 47 I realised maybe I don't actually need another job? Started paying real attention to my finances. At 48, I have 110k cash & 140k pension = 250k. 4% a year dividends = 10k a year. I can live happily on that. £800 a month is enough. I spent £350 a month in December and January, had a great time. Will get a PS5 when available, boiler is bound to break eventually. It all evens out. My state pension fortells a sickly £117 per week. Meh. Forgive me for not factoring that in too much. Who knows where I will be in 20 years? Hopefully sleeping in late without an alarm clock.
Wir holen uns die Kohle zurück! Sino AG und L+S bis die Handelsrepublik publik geht!
Trade Republics Pläne sind klar: Der Copyshop aus Berlin will jedem Europäer ermöglichen mit KOs und Optionsscheinen das schmale Ersparte zu verzocken während Casinos usw. zu sind.
Aussichten
Mit der Expansion nach Frankreich öffnet sich ein riesiger Markt, die Registrierungswarteschlagen sind lang. Für die, die in der Schule nicht aufgepasst haben: Die EU hat fast 150 Mio. mehr Einwohner als die USA, das dortige Pendant Robinhood hat eine Bewertung von über 10 Mrd. USD und ist dort mit 13 Millionen Nutzern bereits in aller Munde. Trade Republic ist im Vergleich dazu mit 150.000 Usern nach eigener Aussage noch winzig, diese Zahl geht aber weiterhin täglich steil nach oben. Wie kann man davon profitieren? Die Trade Republic Bank GmbH bietet dem dahergelaufenen Autisten keine direkte Möglichkeit der Beteiligung, ein IPO steht zwar immer mal wieder im Raum, ist aber wohl noch eine Weile hin. Mit diesen zwei Unternehmen kommt ihr aber trotzdem übers Hintertürchen rein, und wie wir wissen ist dass eh der beste Weg.
sino AG / WKN 576550
Hauptsitz: Düsseldorf
Aktueller Kurs: 28,00€
Marktkapitalisierung: 64,98 Mio. €
ATH: 31,00€ (08.01.21)
Wertentwicklung 1J: 409,1%
Die sino AG ist ein Finanzdienstleister mit nur 33 Mitarbeitern aus Düsseldorf. Die Bude hat ihr Hauptgeschäft im Wertpapierhandel für reiche Boomer und Technologie für die Finanzindustrie. Kerntätigkeit schön und gut, 5 Mio. € Umsatz 2019, waren auch schon mal 6. sino AG kennt der ein oder andere aber vielleicht schon als einen der ersten und größten Investoren bei Trade Republic. Die Firma investierte 2017 als größter Anteilseigner in ein kleines Startup namens Neon GmbH welches später zur Handelsrepublik wurde. Das damalige 3 Mio. € Investment ermöglichte den beiden Gründern mithilfe des sino-CEOs Ingo Hillen, der als Geschäftsführer in das Startup einstieg, die Firma aufzubauen. Mit Ingos Hilfe kam HSBC an Bord, ohne ihn hätten die uns mit ihren Derivaten heute nicht abzocken können. Weil Ingo n fauler Sack ist und frische Kohle ranmusste verkaufte er im Zuge einer Finanzierungsrunde einen Teil seiner Anteile im Wert von 10 Mio. € an neue Investoren, auch Peter Thiel der alte Ficker kam dann über den Teich und schmiss TR Mulah in den Rachen. Die Beteiligung von sino schrumpfte damit auf 16%, trotzdem sind sie nach den Gründern der größte Gesellschafter, diese Anteile sind mittlerweile schon 22% los. Mit der Kohle aus dem Anteilsverkauft ist Ingo aktuell auf der Jagd nach weiteren Fintech-Startups zum Aufbau (habe gehört eine kleine Bude namens Wirecard aus München braucht im Moment etwas Kohle...) Trade Republic ist aktuell noch nicht profitabel, ist aber auf gutem Weg dorthin, spätestens dann fließt bei sino richtig die Kohle rein. Auch von einem IPO der TR würde sino zweifelsohne profitieren, die letzte Bewertungsrunde ergab einen Wert von 240 Mio. €, das wird bei einem IPO wohl deutlich höher werden. Die Aktie dümpelte lange im nichts rum und machte was deutsche Aktien am besten können: seitwärts gehen. Zuletzt wurde das Jetpack aufgezogen und Anfang dieses Jahres zu einem AZH von 31€ geflogen, von diesem Hoch ist es wieder etwas gedippt. Technische Analyse ist eh schwarze Magie aber für die, die es mögen habe ich hier mal n paar Linien zu Papier gebracht: https://www.tradingview.com/x/rlF1ySXv/ sino gibt es zum Handeln auf der Handelsrepublik selbst, wem die Spreads dort zu hoch sind, dem sei die Börse Stuttgart ans Herz gelegt, die haben höheres Volumen und sind näher dran an den sexy Kurven.
Lang & Schwarz / WKN 645932
Hauptsitz: Düsseldorf
Aktueller Kurs: 90,00€
Marktkapitalisierung: 243,5 Mio. €
ATH: 90,00€ (heute)
Wertentwicklung 1J: 549,4%
Wo wir bei Spreads sind, schauen wir uns doch direkt den Schlawiner an, der dafür verantwortlich ist dass unsere dummen Optionsscheine und KOs nie grün werden weil man sie mit 15% Spreads ins Depot holt und die Gurkenscheine das nicht rausholen: Lang & Schwarz. Ich könnte die ganzen folgenden Absätze mit Witzen über den Namen füllen, mach ich auch. So einen Ständer in der Wertentwicklung kann eine kartofellige Alman-Aktie mit Bildschirmbräune natürlich nicht hinlegen, Lang & Schwarz hingegen kriegt das hin. Neben der Funktion als Emittent von jährlich über 30.000 faulen Derivaten hat Lang & Schwarz mit dem Trade Center auch einen eigenen Handelsplatz. Die LS-X oder LS-TC ist ein Handelsblatt den fast alle deutschen Broker im Programm haben, anders als die Autistenrepublik setzen die anderen aber eher auf ne Gruppenszene statt ne 1-Mann-Vorstellung. Trade Republic und LS arbeiten bereits seit Beginn zusammen, auch die Froschfresser kriegen nur schwarzes Fleisch auf den Teller. Die Mathematik ist einfach: Je mehr Orders ihr macht, desto mehr Kohle verdienen die Jungs bei Lang & Schwarz. Von der Kohle geben sie zwar nichts in Form von Dividenden wieder her aber sein wir mal ehrlich: Dividendenaktien sind was für Finanzen. Zur Erinnerung: Der Euro den ihr für euren eine Stunde später wertlosen Goldturbos hinlegt geht komplett rüber zu denen, die Handelsrepublik wird von denen im Gegenzug mit ein paar Cents pro Order beteiligt. Geiler Deal für beide, die Geier kriegen aber anders als die Gegenüber beim "Film"-dreh den Hals nicht voll und haben regelmäßig geisteskranke Spreads für alle Lebenslagen. Komplett autistisch aber wir lassens ja mit uns machen. Das Prinzip ist also klar: mehr Autisten europaweit -> mehr Orders für TR -> die landen bei L+S -> Stonks. Aktuell steht die Aktie auf einem Allzeithoch, also eigentlich der perfekte msw-Einstiegspunkt: https://www.tradingview.com/x/0523F5Ph/ Wer auf einen Dip warten möchte der nie kommt weil die Raketen vollgetankt sind und die Startsequenz den Point of no Return überschritten hat, dem sei vielleicht eher der A1JX52 ans Herz gelegt. Ich saß letztes Jahr bei Tesla an der Seite und hab irgendwann gemerkt, dass ich da lange warten kann, wenns scheiße läuft. Also rein in die Olga 🚀🚀🚀 Der Haken an L+S ist dass mans nicht bei LS-X kaufen kann, ihr seid also auf einen anderen Broker angewiesen. Jeder andere größere deutsche Handelsplatz hat die aber am Start.
Zu lang (höhö) nicht gelesen (TL;DR)
sino AG: größter externer Gesellschafter von TR, CEO hat den Laden groß gemacht, sucht weitere Fintechstartups 🚀🚀🚀🚀 Lang & Schwarz: geiler Name, muss ich noch mehr sagen? Na gut: TRs einziger Handelsplatz, profitiert an euren autistischen Geschäften 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Schlussworte / Disclaimer
Der Herr, dies ist keine Finanzberatung sondern ein Burger King (cooles neues Logo btw). Ich bin bei beiden Unternehmen an Bord, zu meiner Seite ist aber noch Platz in der Rakete, kommt rein ist auch klimatisiert. Meine Recherche basiert auf öffentlich zugänglichen Informationen, googlt doch selber wenn es euch interessiert.
[The watery depths of darkness greets us.]Guda: ...Huh... [The scene shifts to what appears to be the Moon Cell.]Guda: ...This place is... [Accompanied by static, Kiara in her third ascension's mermaid cosplay appears before us for a brief second before she disappears and we find ourselves in the middle of a city.]Guda: ??? [Once again, Kiara appears, this time in her first ascension swimsuit.]Sessyoin Kiara: Fufu. The meal at the restaurant just now was very delicious. As expected of Master; you have a discerning eye, or perhaps I should say you have heavenly luck. At this point, I'm almost fully sated. Guda: [1] Sessyoin Kiara-san...! Kiara: ...Aah. You're calling my name with such a smile on your face again... I am happy about your feelings, but please have patience. We are still in the middle of town...right? Guda: [2] You're Sessyoin Lily's...! Kiara: Fufufu. Keep your feigning of ignorance in moderation. I can't guarantee what'll happen otherwise in all sorts of meaning, you see? Kiara: Now then, since we have filled our stomach, shall we visit our favorite beach? I finally changed into a swimsuit, but I could only try it out at a lake... The one who invited me to the sea while I was lamenting that...was none other than you. I was so happy, I couldn't sleep last night. I might be unable to fall asleep ever again♡ Ju~st kidding☆ Fufufufufu! Since it's a vacation on Valentine's, I'm in high spirits. It might be out of season, but this is a garden of pleasure without any discomfort. That rumored Altar of Perpetual and Everlasting Summer that I've heard of... Umm, if I remember correctly, Luluhawa was its name? I absolutely won't lose to such a wicked thing. I've snuck in there and done my research, after all. Guda: I see. So today was Valentine's. / I see, you are the night time's Sesshouin... Kiara: Yes, of course. Please, spend this holiday so you'll have no regrets afterwards, Master. [We spend the day on the seashore with Kiara, and then, at night...]Kiara: Swimming at the beach where no one else is around, enjoying the sunlight, and engaging in conversations as we listen to the sound of the waves... It was a very pleasant holiday, Master. I've returned my childlike innocence as I frolicked about. Aah, but, being unable to order a few drinks...would be my only regret. Downing your glasses all night will be a thing for when you're a little older♡ ...Oh. Putting that aside... I might be giving it to you at the very end, but would you accept this...? It's chocolate for Valentine's. [Kiara's choco acquired!]Guda: I'll gladly accept it! / I see, it slipped my mind! Kiara: You being pleased with it is all that matters to me. To commemorate this Summer, I tried to imitate a flower ornament. It might be some plain chocolate compared to what you received from the other Servants... ────Aah, however. If you still find it insufficient...if it still does not satisfy you...if you still want more... There might be more after this...perhaps? Guda: [1] No such thing, this is more than enough! Kiara: ────I see. Then this is where it ends. I have been turned down. Yes, Valentine's only lasts one day. It's not something to repeat over and over again for several days. Then, let us return to Chaldea, Master. You have no need for the tranquility of the depths. Please, join hands with everyone and take back our great planet, okay? [GOOD END] Guda: [2] ...You are right, it might be a little lacking... Kiara: ────You wished for it, right? Then close your eyes for a bit. Let my following version guide you even deeper. How cruel to say that pleasant affairs end in an instant. If they can continue, let them do so for eternity. That is what everyone honestly wishes for. [Suddenly, everything goes white. Then, accompanied by static, images of the Moon Cell and the previous city flashes before our eyes and we find ourselves in an Oriental capital.]Guda: ────Huh? [We hear the sound of an approaching bike and Kiara skids to a halt before us in her second ascension's getup.] Kiara: Oh my. My preferred unsightly pig Master has been foun~d♡ ────Ahem. That's not it. Stop there, you bitch (if female)/swine (if male). Get on your knees and raise your hands. You aren't allowed to resist. If you move even a little, I'll smack you in the ass (if female)/between your legs (if male) with this baton. Guda: This is also Kiara-san...? / So next is Kiara Police! [Kiara smiles before she reverts to her previous stern expression.]Kiara: Shut up. There is no chance for you to explain or a right for you to vindicate yourself. You should have learned in compulsory education that in this town being a Master itself is a sin, right? Moreover, to think you'd be leisurely walking on the main street...are you not aware that you're a piece of trash? You────know what's going to happen next, right? Guda: Perhaps...going along voluntarily to be questioned by the police? / Could it be...I'll be forcibly detained? Kiara: Yes, a tiny piece of trash belongs in the trashcan. A miserable pig belongs in the pigpen. And so, you're under arrest~♡ Game over for you, best regards? [More choco acquired!]Kiara: Fufufu. I wonder if you'll like this handcuff-shaped chocolate. Now then, the continuation will be happening in solitary confinement, plenty of it. This Saint Graph does not adhere to the master-servant relationship. It is the form a ruthless ruler. I will thoroughly train that lax attitude of yours without any mercy. Yes, even if it will take a year or a decade. As you wished, forever, right? Guda: Eh...? / A decade...? [Our vision goes white once again.]Kiara: Don't you find it strange? Why are the bubbles the Shen spews forth called mirages on the surface? If the bubbles reflect the insides of the shell, what appears on the surface should be simply the clam's muscles. So then, the reason why oases and capitals emerge────is that what's inside the Shen is literally a castle. [1] An ideal world envisioned by the people of the secular world. An earthly paradise without any discomfort. A perfectly convenient and infinitely vast city. This is the insides of the mirage. A different world contained within the palace of the clam. Even so──── For me, it is nothing but a cramped bed, you see? [Accompanied by the sound of static, we find ourselves at a pool.]Kiara: How about something of this aspect this time? Though you might already be sick of eating chocolate. [Even more choco acquired!]Kiara: Ufufu. Beaches are great, but pools like this are fine too. Well, since the current is too strong, it is not to my liking... Fortunately, the current me is a mermaid as you can see. No matter how many times you drown or how far you are swept away, I can easily scoop you up, you know, Master? Guda: ............ Kiara: What might be the problem? You seem to be under the weather based on your expression. Could it be...the clam chocolate from before wasn't to your liking? ...As expected, mixing clam with chocolate was dangerous... No, this only happened by a chance, it's just an accident! It's not like I'm better at cooking when I'm in Lily form! ...Oh, that's not what I should be saying. Master? If your stomach hurts, how about we return to the hotel? This is a high-class resort that even has casinos. There is no shortage of entertainment even at the hotel. Guda: It's about time... Kiara: Yes? Guda: If I don't return to Chaldea soon... Kiara: ─────── ─────── ────Then let us do that. Go ahead and return, Master. I won't stop you. That is. If you can escape? [We leave behind Kiara and run through the city, the Moon Cell, the beach, and reach the Oriental capital where we encountered Kiara Police.]Guda: ────pant pant──── ────No good, this city, is way too vast──── [The ground rumbles and *the faint image of Kiara we could see in the sky all this time comes into view and Kiara's voice echoes out.]* Kiara: ────Pfft. Fufu, ufufu, aah, how funny! Just what are you talking about when you are so out of breath? This is an immensely vast world. After all, this is next to my pillow. It is a castle that would be sent flying if I were to blow on it. Guda: ────Just what, is that──── Kiara: After you take refuge in illusions, you won't be able to leave. ...Indeed, I also find it regrettable. To think you'd fall so deep after being bewitched by the sweetness of sugar. I can't view you as Master anymore. You're like an ant that ran around restlessly and separated from its colony. I wonder if I should cover you in chocolate and eat you. [The ground rumbles once again.]Kiara: Fufu, of course, that was just a joke. This is an earthly paradise, inside the dream released by the Shen. If you are fine with empty illusions, here you will be granted tranquility lasting until your death, no, lasting forevermore without you being able to die. Will you disappear along with the illusions in a single breath from me or will you cling to my fingers seeking salvation──── Regardless of what you choose, there is no way for you to return to reality. Resign yourself to your fate, Master. [A pink mist fills our vision.]Kiara: Your fall will lead to the Heaven of Pleasure. The Hell of the woman who captivates her prey. ...Fufu, you wish you hadn't gone to something like the Palace of the Dragon King, right? [BAD END] (Moral of the story: Don't be greedy. Or Kiara will trap you in illusions and toy with you for eternity.)
Bond CE
A Single Summer's Mirage Set Valentine's chocolate from Sessyoin Kiara (MoonCancer). Chocolates matching each stage of ascension are stored inside the Tamateba[2] ......correction, a multi-layered lunch box. You can eat any of the "flowers floating at the waterside", "handcuffs" and "shellfish" that you prefer. However, moderation is important for everything. If you eat just one or two kinds, the boddhisatva will watch over you with a charming smile, but if you display an unsatiable desire where you eat everything at once──── 「Fufufu, what's stored inside the box might not be only chocolate, you know?」 Translator notes: [1] "Mirage" is written with the kanji for "Shen" "emission/spirit/mind" and "building/tower", so mirages are "buildings created of what the Shen emits", I guess? [2] The narration was gonna say Tamatebako before it cut off.
William Eyelash had taken the lead in this match, and though as a leader, he hadn’t done the best job, getting Jack visibly injured, as a combatant, he had managed to withstand the aggressive and area-painting onslaughts of himself from not so long ago, and of a much more experienced version of the partner he’d once had. It had made him catch his breath, reflect on all that had come to this point, to recall that moment where Ocean Eyes had been the one to embrace and protect him. “Yes… I understand now,” William answered, walking carefully through the snow, “you had something good going there, Jacob Brown, but… Y-you didn’t seriously think I would fall for tricks like those coming from my own Stand, did you?” Didn’t even know it could do all that, though… Even now, I can still grow, huh? That put a smile on his face, then, as he approached the injured Jack, helping him up. “You still with us?” “Hee hee, I’ll peachy keen as peachy cream in a little while… But right now I’m very much hurting yes.” Jack chuckled, resting his eyes and looking things over. “In the end, though… I called that other me in the hoodie an impostor, but he knew my Stand better than I did. He was even more me than me… What does that mean?” He looked down. “Am… Am I the lie?” “I, uh… I don’t know how to answer that,” William said, “but… You’re one of the most genuine people I’ve ever met. And, uh… You helped me out a ton. Sorry for getting you hurt, uh, not that used to leading, but you really seemed to trust in me…” “We all make mistakes!” Jack said, not minding that at all, “but… I suppose you’re right. I won’t let some stranger get in my head… But I guess that all of us were telling the truth in our hearts, then.” He looked to the defeated ‘Billy’ and the slightly-older Jacob, both bleeding and unconscious, the latter falling much faster. Already, a strange white blob was moving through the snowfield towards them, examining them. “So I guess we spare them today... if they survive what we’ve given already!” Neither would realize it for another few minutes, but for Jacob Brown, those words had proven prophetic. “S-still though… If you’ve really lived a full life here, become the same person with the same Stand, same memories,” William said, “does that mean that can just… Happen? But how, wh-when really, by probability and stuff…” “So is the unusual burden of ‘Fate,’ felt strongest upon this city,” a familiar, altered voice spoke, and sitting on a park bench, William and Jack spied none other than the Institute’s head, still heavily layered as he always was. “Oh No…” William muttered. “‘Oh no?’ Is this a problem of a person?” Jack asked, then giggled. “Heeheh, just a little joke. I know about the Institute, of course!” “The ‘Fortuna Double’ might exist at any point in time, for any Stand User from outside its walls, and no matter how irreconcilable the circumstances, how ‘impossible’ it should be for two people to have the same fated path, even for the slight differences of the city… The ‘Same Person’ can unquestionably exist. Wouldn’t be surprised if you, ‘Jack,’ and this ‘Billy’ here were simply the first you encountered who were close enough to your age that you immediately noticed.” No tilted his head. “Why, even that cute creature who followed the elder Jacob Brown is, literally, the same being as the Bert that just died… Yet, unlike them, bound still by fate. I wonder, then, what will prove to be the same, to be indomitable ‘fate,’ and what will prove not so.” “I think sometimes about if I’ve ever had one here… Or will, in the future. That sounds utterly boring if so, though. I refuse to know my fate; it’s vexing enough of a limit on myself that I’m burdened by, knowing it’s predetermined to exist at all.” “Uh… Right.” This was heavy, huh? William tried to figure out what it all meant. “Fortuna Doubles, huh… So they’re both real, completely and absolutely, then?” “Precisely!” No remarked, cheerily. “Would you like to speak more about this? Go on, sit with me.” Only a few hours remain still in your window of time to vote in a match between an Agnes and some Guy in a crowded concert hall brought down to size. Scenario: Alexis Williams was sinking. Every day, the myriad of matters which plagued the outwardly-cheerful woman’s mind seemed to be growing worse and worse. The unhealthy relationship she’d had with her Stand had turned into an even worse sort of tension, a fundamental disconnect with an aspect of herself which she literally could not be away from. It hadn’t been uncommon for some time for her to wonder if a given day would be her last. Over the last several months, those feelings had only grown and grown in their intensity, in their power over her, and it had even begun to show outwardly. It wouldn’t be long now, surely, before- Alexis’ hotel room door was kicked so hard that one of the hinges flew off, and through it launched, not an attacker like she might have imagined, some hostile Stand User out to invade her home, but something arguably even worse. “ALEXIS!” Her friend and fellow Eighth Circle mainstay, Bucket. She clutched her forehead and forced a smile, turning away from what she’d been using to get through the day and towards him. Already, she could tell that the chaos agent, formerly known for the octopus on his head, now sporting sick sarashi and a pompadour, was here with intentions ranging from ‘good’ to ‘no intentions whatsoever,’ and it wasn’t in her nature to tell someone like that to fuck off. “Bucket! Hey!” She said, an edge to her chipper tone. “You, uh, surprised me there… You’re gonna fix that door, right?” She blinked. “Wait, weren’t you at that Metra show? I thought I’d heard everyone there was shrunk down to-” “Forget about that!” He answered, earnestly drawing closer, grasping her by the wrists suddenly, yet at once gently. “Alexis, I don’t know what’s going on with your head or heart or anything else, but I know I can’t just stand around outside your door watching you get more and more miserable! Even I noticed, so it must be really really bad whatever’s hurting you inside! I’m an acolyte of the boogie now, the example of Rudolf Pavlova, so I can’t let a friend be in need!” “Rudolf…” Alexis had heard of his passing, so soon after helping her put on such a wonderful show, and been unsurprised. Wait, though, since when did Bucket- Ah, never mind. She shook her head, looking him in the eye. The highly chaotic, unstable hellraiser of the Judecca Highrollers was giving her puppy-dog eyes. “Did… Did you want to do something?” “Yes! I want to make you better!” Bucket exclaimed, pulling away and bouncing upwards. “So c’mon! Let’s head out… Make some trouble, follow no rules but our own and to be happy!” He stopped, then, pulling back a moment, as if reading the room once again, folding his arms over his chest. “I mean, if you want to.” Alexis thought it over. He meant well, clearly, and wished dearly to cheer her up… A person didn’t need to understand the nuances of the soul to see when a person was hurting, and to reach out for them. She doubted it would make things better for her, but who’s to say it needed to be? “That sounds great,” she said, relaxing her forced cheer slightly and nodding. “Maybe it’s what I need right about now.” The Woods at Aurelio - Midday - Near the Northern Bridge “So you’re sure that he’s got a base out here?” “Crystal clear!” Tiger ‘Glitch’ Ricky answered Effie Linder, tilting her head one way and then the other as she and her Stand attempted to scope out the sounds of the area. “There was only basically one cop left and then Ugo made them quit, took the place over, paid them off… So now he just sorta comes and goes around that little old ‘empty’ police station!” “If he hangs out at the town’s police station,” Effie asked, confused at her coworker’s demeanor, “then why are we out this far away from it?” “Because!” Glitch answered, huffing and folding her arms. “I said he comes and goes! And prrobably isn’t there right now. Mrr, you’re the one who wanted to come out here with me, so let’s keep searching!” “…” Effie nodded. “You know what, fair enough. He never was the type to stay still long, so looking where the Watch is going would be a start…” Since that day she fought that shithead twink Agnes and that Italian twink Arpeggi at Tigran Sins’ casino, Glitch had been gradually, increasingly mulling over the idea of becoming something not so much unlike the latter… A vigilante, out to not just cause problems on purpose, but sometimes even solve them on purpose, in the way a Stand User knew best: shenanigans and violence. Hearing about the way that Ugo McBaise had sabotaged the capture of the very villains whose challenge had inspired her to act, had directly gotten people killed and responsible for dangerous people staying at large, that felt like reason plenty to break out ‘shenanigans and violence’ on him. Effie caught her on the way out, and had said then, “what, am I gonna wait around for Fira to send me on some bullshit errand? If you’re turning that piece of shit’s head concave, I’m in too.” And so, enthusiastically, Effie had joined, and the pair had been circling the outskirts of town atop Vida Loca ever since, Effie also using her murder of crows for further observations than what her eyes alone could tell her. Glitch’s ears perked, as did her Stand. “…something’s up ahead. A bunch of people hanging out by the river…” “Hm? Yeah, I think I see it!” Effie remarked, producing a pair of binoculars to look that way. “VALKYRIE guys… You know what that means up here, don’t you?” Though most of the company fell in line with Rushen Smith’s new leadership, it was something of an open secret that Ugo McBaise had very specifically drilled the former Neighborhood Watch, which had become a new unit of the company, into being loyal to him, not to his rank. Fears being stoked about the potential of ANVIL going to war with the town was all that kept them from being disbanded outright, feeling that people familiar with the area were best-suited for watching it. Glitch hissed. “Alright, then, you know what we’ve gotta do!” “Wait, it looks like they’re being talked through something by…” Effie adjusted the binoculars, peered through the crowd, and recognized a very identifiable vest… and a bald head, shining in the midday sun. “Mr. Jones?” Mr. Jones had been having a good few weeks himself, ever since his earlier, very successful outing with Dread. It had ended in him successfully acquiring not just any ‘Memento,’ but perhaps one of the city’s most dangerous, and the life-fearing compliance of the kidnapped alleged immortal who led it to him, taught him its secrets. Apparently some kitty somewhere was sad about that, but eh, when you’re making an omelette, yeah? “Wait wait wait,” he said affably to the crowd of VALKYRIE agents he’d once called a neighborhood watch, “you say a guy in a blue pomp and a dancer’ve been… Spray painting your cars? Throwin’ dead fish at ya? Sprayin’ ink to get away?” He snickered. “You’ve had a hell of a morning with this prankster pair, then, if they keep givin’ you the slip.” “Please, Mr. Jones,” a young man said as he continued to wipe fish guts off of his helmet visor, “I… I know, technically, you aren’t our leader anymore, that the bosses don’t like you much, but.” He sniffled, earnestly. “But you’ve always been so good to us, even since then! You’ve been loyal to us, and we still love you for it, no matter what they say you did!” “Heheh… Hearin’ you say that makes it worth it, y’know that?” Mr. Jones wiped a finger under the eye of his sunglasses, looking them over. “Think I know who might be the whodunnit-er here, actually. Just gimme a hot minute to track the guy down, and-” “Got a lot of nerve talking to my men, Jones.” Everyone went silent, then, at the sound of a hammer, for dramatic effect, being dragged along the pavement of the road, then swung in the air by an absolute cinderblock of a man. “You got a problem, and you come running to him because he happened to be passing by? What happened to using your damn heads?” Ugo chewed his subordinates out, then, before looking to the neighborhood watch founder. “I think you’ve confused these people, Worm, by still keeping up that paternal reliable neighbor shit. They’ve all been taught well and good that they listen to me, not some replacement,” he pointed his hammer forward, then, threateningly, “and sure as hell not some serial killing scum!” “Now now now, Ugo, c’mon, it’s clear they like us both, yeah? So let’s just… Clear the confusion up, if y’care that much!” Mr. Jones reached for the sabre sheathed at his side, then, drawing it with a golden sheen; he’d fished it out of the wreckage of Capital Island one day after it wasn’t destroyed in Jack’s ritual. He, too, pointed it forward. “I know the language you speak, so let’s talk in that.” Ugo grunted, then, swinging his hammer back over his shoulder as a very feminine form appeared behind him, looking like something of a curvy, thickset cowgirl. “Aw, Ugo and I concur, y’all know we’re down t’bash some heads and take a name or two! Why, sugar, we’re about to put you down like a sick dog!” Mr. Jones got a snicker out of the odd word choices of ‘She’s a Big Boy,’ finding the contrast between Stand and User in all but their brutal aggression amusing; sometimes he’d tried in the past to talk to him and unpack what the Stand actually said about Ugo’s soul, but it was a conversation the very straightforward, taciturn former football star never quite liked to have. Jones gestured with his head, then. “Watch, get back to HQ, yeah? Whoever you see walk through that door, few hours from now, respect that, yeah?” “Uh… S-sure?” The ex-Watch member who’d been speaking said, turning around. “C’mon, guys, let’s get pizza or something… I guess.” Alexis had been sitting by the bank of the Wormwood River, mulling over the shenanigans Bucket had encouraged her to join in with, ever since she’d happened to spot all the Watch members they’d been harassing seemingly surround somebody; it was an action which led Bucket to say ‘just gimme a minute’ before diving into the water. It was a shame, honestly. This harmless problem causing had actually been kind of fun, in a way. Bucket splashed up soon after. “I knew it!” “Knew what?” “There was this bald guy talking to all the VALKYRIE guys about all our awesome pranks, and then that no-good bastard Ugo showed up and they started slugging it out and moving towards a sewer grate. And then, you wouldn’t believe it… The bald guy turned into Conqueror Worm!” That gave Alexis pause, then. He was here? “We… We should probably go somewhere else, then! If people out there are fighting, I want no part in it whatsoever… And you probably shouldn’t anger guys like that either.” “I can’t just turn away from this, Alexis! I’m here to cheer you up, and that guy… When he helped kidnap you, that’s when you started to feel even worse! So, I’m going to roll up there, give him my fiercest look possible, and make him apologize for being mean to you.” That… Wasn’t where Alexis was expecting Bucket to end that sentence, but it made her sigh, momentarily. Her mood was good and ruined now anyway by these revelations, and Bucket was suggesting something dangerous nonetheless. “Look, Bucket, not everybody is good-natured, okay? You can’t just walk up to somebody and-” “But I will!” Bucket insisted, flexing. “Because I have the power of ‘the boogie’ on my side, don’t you get it? This will cheer you so far up! You don’t even need to come along if you don’t want, because I dunno I might punch Ugo a bit if he hits first! But either way, you will get your apology, I swear it!” Then, Bucket ran off. To confront two very dangerous brick shithouses of men. In a sewer. “He’s going to get himself killed…” Alexis felt awful now, standing and looking Southward. She could just leave, couldn’t she? Bucket even said he wasn’t expecting her to follow when it could turn into a fight… In the end, were humans not all fated to fall victim to their own mistakes, their own vices and eccentricities? …I can’t just leave a friend like that, even if I’m feeling bad. “Bucket!” Alexis called, beginning to run after him. “Wait up for me! I’m coming along too! Let’s… Get that apology!” She was having to babysit the guy who came to help her out, now, was that it? “Ghhgh, it’s a two-for-one special on the worst in the city, isn’t it?” Glitch complained, trailing Effie down a ladder into the sewers. “First we’re tailing Ugo, and then Mr. Jones, and now they’re fighting… I don’t even know who’s worse!” “One’s a serial killer, and yeah super dangerous,” Effie pointed out, “and the other keeps getting a lot of other people killed with his own dangerous stupidity… Keeps causing us problems, and helped escalate that warzone. I don’t like being an enemy of ANVIL, Glitch… I really don’t.” “Mmrhh… They’re gonna get a piece of our best attacks.” The pair, then, touched ground, and Effie saw around them the signs of battle, of pieces of the ground seemingly terraformed, nicked, busted-up, and the sounds of clashing in the distance. Undoubtedly them. Then, though, as they stepped forward, soon after, a pair literally dropped down behind them, one after the other, first a scarred, pompadoured idiot doing a cool roll, then a redheaded gymnast landing coolly not far behind. “Wait a minute… Bucket? And, uh, that performer from that thing everyone liked… Alexis Williams?” Effie remarked, backing away a bit, trying to figure out the pair’s intentions. “What are you doing here?” “Oh, you know!” Alexis tilted her head, very blatant in how forced the chipper tone had become, especially by the nature of what she’d said next. “Losing control of my life, letting weird things get out of hand… But I’m here now. I’ve committed to my choice, and I hear sounds further back. So, Bucket! Let’s get a move-on, yeah? I don’t particularly care much for being in a sewer…” Bucket, however, had been unmoving since he had begun to stand. Glitch, too, faced directly his way, allowing him to look her in the eye as a strange expression came over them both. Effie and Alexis, then, were deeply confused, until Vida Loca appeared, and the sounds of beatboxing seemed to fill the air. “Wh-” Effie was taken aback. “Glitch, we’ve got something going on here. You’re not seriously going to-” “Hey fishman, the cat’s here to catch ya / Tiger ‘Glitch’ Ricky on the mic comin’ atcha / In a hotel or a diner or even a sewer / My rhymes gonna run you through like a skewer!” This was physically painful for Alexis to watch. She covered her mouth as she prepared for Bucket to open his, well aware that half of their social circle was probably going to slap him for whatever came out. “Name’s Bucket, B-U-C-K-E-T / Got beat but came back now with the Boogie! / Was chasin’ a killer but this fish can still school you / With my friend Alexis here, my rhymes’ll hit true!” “…hit true?” Alexis couldn’t help but find that groan-inducingly hilarious, though her momentary joy, then, was cut short by the fact that Effie, meanwhile, was absolutely seething. “C’mon, do this literally any other time!” She exasperatedly proclaimed, tugging at Glitch’s arm, “we can’t let those assholes get away, c’mon, you know we need to cut this out and-” Bucket threw a fish at Effie’s face. Everyone went silent, then, as it slid off and hit the ground, her own expression dry with displeasure. “Did… Did you just throw a fish at me?” “Yeah! Because you keep ruining the vibes!” Bucket huffed. “So cut it the hell out, or I will do it again!” “Really now,” Effie said, keeping her hand by her slingshot and beginning to walk further Southward. “If you keep distracting us, I’ll have to get you out of our way.” One of Bucket’s massive knives, then, was drawn, blade resting centimeters from Effie’s face. “Don’t threaten me, alright? That’s completely against the spirit of this.” Glitch hissed, then, her own mood ruined, “hey! You can’t just pull a weapon on my friend like that, even if she’s being a spoilsport! That’s way over-the-line!” As both sides fell back, not losing sight of the other as they attempted to pull away and regroup, it was clear that three-fourths of the quartet had been angered enough at one another in an instant that a fight was about to brew. Alexis had been deliberately trying not to send out her Stand this entire time, wanting some semblance of mental distance from it after their disagreements had turned increasingly mean, her literal fighting with herself and grappling with her demons leaving her wanting absolutely none of this. Bucket was about to get himself killed over, easily, the stupidest thing she had ever seen a fight start over. This day has gone from sad to fun to the most frustrating I have ever seen… I tried to make a good day out of it, but here I am now. I can’t just abandon Bucket after he tried for me… But boy is he trying me. OPEN THE GAME! (Credit to CaptainSpooky27 for yet more awesome match art!) Location: One of Los Fortuna’s sewer pathways, specifically far on the Northwestern outskirts of the town of Aurelio. These are one of the many entrances to the elaborate and interconnected underground networks of the city, though you’re in a pretty straightforward section of it that doesn’t branch off all that many surprising ways. Not far South from here, but distant enough that it won’t ever affect this match, you can hear the sounds of a simultaneous battle between Mr. Jones and Ugo McBaise. The area here is 63 meters by 33 meters with each tile being 3 by 3 meters. With TGS on the left and JHR on the right, represented by their character tokens. The light grey tiles are the concrete paths, the darker grey tiles are the walls, and the blue tiles are sewer water. The walls are solid all the way through. The sewer itself is actually relatively clean here, as clean as underground sewer water can be really. The water level is about 1 foot below the walkways and the water is 3 meters deep. The ceiling is 4 meters above the walkways and the walkways have cheap metal guardrails between themselves and the water, as represented by the bolded outlines. The orange rectangles are the metal bridges between the walkways and the yellow circles are open manhole covers with light streaming through. The grey triangles are strange stalagmite-like protrusions, likely somehow created by Ugo and Jones’ fight. They match the same material as the stone walls, take up most of the walkway in width, and reach up to the ceiling. Goal: RETIRE your opponents! Additional Information: Logic is allowed to kill me(Kak) and both of the players who made me write this.
"Are you mocking me? You went into the ground with your zipper? Are you copying me?" This whole thing has gotten so absolutely lame, that it’s killed your attempts to cheer your friend up and to have an awesome rap battle. So these guys are lame, and need to feel it! Make sure to find creative ways for your strategy to humiliate your opponents!
“You think that you can escape my punches when you're surrounded by walls of dirt?” Bucket’s gotten people into another frustrating situation by not thinking, huh? Well, you’ll get him out of this in one piece by using your head. Use this underground sewer environment to your advantage!
“They say that sound reverberates better in liquids than in solids.” Seriously, Glitch? Seriously? Well, at least as long as you’re in this gnarly sewer, you can get something out of it by using your head. Use this underground sewer environment to your advantage!
"Do you think you stand a chance against me by going underground?!" So now you and your opponents are going to be trying to one-up each other, huh? Bucket is an immensely clownable guy, dammit, and you were so hyped to do so verbally… Make sure to find creative ways for your strategy to humiliate your opponents!
Link to the Official Player Spreadsheet Link to Match Schedule As always, if you would like to interact with the tournament community and be among the first to get updates for the tournament, please feel free to PM a member of our Judge staff for an invite to our Official Discord Server!
L'affaire GameStop et WallStreetBets expliqué par un imbécile
Bonjour à toutes et à tous, Pour celles et ceux qui n'auraient pas suivi, il se passe des choses de pas très catholiques au royaume des gros sous, c'est en partie dû à des jailuseurs et c'est assez rigolo. ------------------------- Ce post fait doublon avec celui-ci, mais j'ai passé bien trop de temps à mettre mon museau dans cette affaire pour ne pas vouloir partager un peu ce que j'ai compris. Et je me suis dit que je pourrais peut-être amener des détails intéressants. Et puis quitte à perdre ma journée de boulot, autant le faire jusqu'au bout. Dérevendications :
J'ai la gueule de bois, syntaxe et clarté vont en pâtir, désolé.
Je n'ai jamais touché de près ou de loin à un marché financier (St Manu m'en garde), donc je suis désolé si je galvaude des termes dont je ne comprends pas le sens et que par ailleurs je traduis un peu bêtement de l'anglais.
Évidemment j'élude quelques détails, mais ce poteau est déjà suffisamment long comme ça.
Bon, et puis je me suis un peu laissé emporté par mon enthousiasme, mon poteau n'est pas objectif. Il y a mieux ailleurs si vous voulez une analyse éclairée du sujet. Je ne passe pas suffisamment de temps ici pour avoir pu me rendre compte qu'il s'agit d'une énième bête tartine sur cette histoire et je n'ai pas trouvé de meilleur endroit pour raconter tout ça. => Si vous en avez assez ou cherchez de l'information fraîche sur le sujet, ce n'est pas ici.
------------------------- Pour commencer, le premier personnage de notre récit : GameStop. Tout ce qu'il faut savoir, c'est que c'est une chaîne américaine de magasins qui vend des jeux-vidéos, consoles, etc, bref, que c'est une pâle copie de notre Micromania national. Comme vous vous en doutez, les beaux jours d'une telle entreprise sont derrière elle et sa santé financière n'est pas tout à fait au beau fixe en ce moment, avec la dématérialisation croissante des jeux-vidéos et les restrictions de déplacements actuels. Autrement dit, le prix de ses actions glisse lentement mais bien sûrement vers les abîmes (et les magasins ferment et les gens perdent leur emploi, etc, la classique). Deuxième chose à comprendre, il est possible sur les marchés financiers d'emprunter des actions. Rien de bien spécial; j'emprunte une action à monsieur A contre la promesse de lui rendre au bout d'une certaine échéance avec un petit intérêt. Pour quoi faire, vous demandez-vous? Eh bien si je parie à la baisse sur son action, je lui emprunte et la vend immédiatement à Mme B. Mettons que le prix baisse effectivement. Une fois l'échéance révolue, il me suffit de racheter mon action à Mme B, moins cher, donc, que je lui ai vendue, pour pouvoir la rendre à M. A. Bilan de l'opération pour moi, j'ai gagné la différence entre l'ancien et le nouveau prix, moins les intérêts que je dois à M. A. Twingo. Si le prix monte, l'opération à exécuter est la même, mais j'ai perdu de l'argent. Dommage. C'est la bourse ma bonne dame. Deuxièmes protagonistes de notre histoire : les fonds de haie (fonds spéculatifs, pour les non-anglophones). Ce sont des organismes qui gagnent leur pain en spéculant sur des produits financiers plutôt que d'investir dans la vraie économie, ouh, les méchants. Vous aurez compris que ces fonds de haie, bien certains que le cours des actions de GameStop (actions GME de leur petit nom) ne pourra à peu près jamais se relever, se sont mis à jouer au petit jeu de "prêtes-y moi tes actions que je me fasse du pognon avec pendant qu'elles plongent doucement" avec celles-ci. Malins comme ils sont, ils ne se sont pas contentés de simplement emprunter à M. A pour vendre à Mme B. Ils se sont aussi mis, aussitôt l'action vendue, à la lui réemprunter pour la revendre ensuite ailleurs et se faire encore plus d'oseille par le même mécanisme. A l'échéance du prêt de M. A, il leur suffit de racheter l'action GME à qui la possède pour la rendre à M. A, puis de faire de même à l'échéance de l'emprunt à Mme B en rachetant son action à M. A, par exemple. Là où le bât blesse, c'est qu'il y a un nombre fini d'action sur le marché. Du coup, notre emprunteur malicieux peut se retrouver à devoir rendre une même action à la fois à M. A et à Mme B, action qu'il ne possède plus. En ce moment, les fonds de haie doivent rendre à peu près 1,3 fois plus d'actions GME qu'il n'en existe vraiment (ou 2,3 fois, je ne suis pas sûr d'avoir bien compris. Quoiqu'il en soit, plus qu'il y en a effectivement sur le marché). C'est là qu'arrivent nos troisièmes protagonistes : les jailuseurs de wallstreetbets. wallstreetbets est un sousjailu où les gens s'échangent des conseils plus ou moins sérieux sur les façons de perdre de l'argent en bourse par des placements farfelus, ainsi que des blagues et des mèmes sur le sujet et pas mal d'insultes. C'est un endroit différents des sous "sérieux" en matière de placements financiers, pour jailuseurs un peu cyniques et débridés. Pour l'anecdote, le signature-mouvement du sous, communément appelé le "YOLO", consiste à placer toutes ses économies personnelles ou son prêt étudiant dans des valeurs absurdes pour la blague. Et de tout perdre en général. Ça vous donne une idée du niveau. Les gens du sous, un peu par blague puis par opportunisme, ayant repéré les magouilles des fonds de haie, se sont mis à acheter en masse des actions GME, en se passant le mot de ne surtout pas vendre. La logique est simple : les fonds de haie emprunteurs se retrouvent à devoir rendre leurs actions à M. A et Mme B sous peine de devoir leur payer toujours plus d'intérêts, toujours plus cher, et doivent donc acheter des actions GME sur le marché. En conséquence, la simple mécanique de l'offre et de la demande fait que les prix montent. Et continuent à monter – "jusqu'à la lune", espèrent nos jailuseurs – les acheteurs étant prêts à tout pour échapper à ces intérêts à payer qui s'accumulent. La suite logique de l'histoire serait que suffisamment de nos petits actionnaires se fasse un bon retour sur investissement en vendant leurs parts, maintenant que la valeur de l'action a bien monté, ce qui permettrait aux fonds de haie de rendre ce qu'ils doivent, à la machine infernale de s'arrêter et aux marchés de se calmer. Oui, mais voilà. Les jailuseurs ont non-seulement compris que la pompe pouvait ne jamais s'arrêter et le prix de monter s'ils continuaient à bloquer leurs actions, mais surtout qu'ils tiennent dans leur paumes les couilles de fonds de haie et de leurs financeurs, autrement dit, que des petits épargnants peuvent, pour une fois, étrangler des grosses boîtes qui jouent avec les économies des gens! Et voilà pourquoi les marchés financiers étasuniens s'affolent ces derniers temps à cause de jailuseurs qui se considèrent "autistes" et "retardés". Est-ce qu'ils parviendront à conserver leurs "mains de diamants" et à ne pas succomber à l'appât du gain jusqu'au bout? Est-ce que Melvin Capital, principal fond de haie trempé dans tout ça finira par laisser la clef sous la porte? Est-ce qu'une magouille financière ou institutionnelle mettra fin à tout ça (ce matin, le cours est reparti dans une baisse apparemment artificielle et provoquée par des mouvements spéculatifs visant à faire peur aux actionnaires en simulant une chute de valeur pour les pousser à vendre)? C'est l'avenir qui nous le dira! Je vous invite vivement à faire un tour sur wallstreetbets pour vous imprégner un peu de l'atmosphère survoltée qu'il y a là-bas. Tout le monde est un peu fou en ce moment, ça vaut le coup. Et puis leurs bêtises ne vont peut-être pas mener à un autre 2008, mais c'est quand même un événement assez particulier, ça mérite qu'on s'y intéresse un peu, je pense. On aurait presque envie d'aller mettre un peu d'argent dans le casino géant qui fait tourner le monde pour l'occasion. 💎🙌🚀🌕 PS : Comme je l'ai dit, ma compréhension de tout ça vient d'une petite session de rôdage sur les internets. Si un(e) vrai(e) économiste ou quelqu'un qui bosse dans la finance passe par là et est outré par les bêtises que je raconte, qu'il ou elle me le dise et je rectifierai.
Tiefgründige Gedanken am Heisl zu unserer Strandbrunzerregierung
Nennt mich linken Idealisten, oder Träumer oder was auch immer. Don't care. In dem nachfolgenden Rant geht's nicht um Links oder Rechts. Ich bin kein Fan des Kasten- oder Schwarzweissdenkens. Ich selbst würde mich jetzt in keine politische Richtung eingliedern, sondern sehe einfach in allen Bereichen massiven Handlungsbedarf. Auf Themen wie Freunderlwirtschaft, das Bedienen des spendenfreudigen Klientels, billige Polemik, inhaltlose Symbolpolitik, die offensichtliche Korruption sowie Zensur und Lügerei werde ich hier nicht eingehen. Stattdessen möchte ich in den Raum stellen, was alles bewusst ausser Acht gelassen wurde und warum der Hauptfokus der schwer inkompetenten türkisen Buberlpartie (die sich zu Unrecht hinter dem christlich sozialen Vorhang versteckt), einfach nicht ausreicht. Es gäbe so viel zu tun und zu verbessern. Den Türkisen geht's ja eh nur ums Image. Also warum nicht einmal das Richtige tun und zeigen, dass sie nicht nur konzerngeile Marionetten sind. Es sind die nicht vorhandenen Maßnahmen in den Bereichen: Bildung (Mindest ECTS beim Studieren zb.), Klimaschutz (den es nach wie vor nicht gibt), menschliche und faire Asylpolitik (keine Symbolpolitik wie eben kürzlich), Ausbau des Gesundheitssystem und Entlastung von Medizinpersonal (es wird uns früher oder später die Decke aufs Hirn krachen, wenn alle Mediziner in die Privatwirtschaft flüchten), Maßnahmen gegen die Abwanderung von Medizinstudenten (ja, es gibt eine EU - Quote, aber dann muss man das Angebot erweitern), Gegenmaßnahmen zum Lohndumping bei Pflegekräften und attraktive Entlohnung, vermehrte Investitionen in staatliche Wohnbauprojekte und Privatisierungsstopps in dem Bereich, attraktive Hilfspakete um die Abwanderung österreichischer Unternehmen ins Ausland zu verhindern (MAN Steyr), Intervention beim Verkauf österreichischer Ländereien und Unternehmen an andere Länder (Skigebiete, Casinos Austria, etc.), mangelnder Eingriff des Staates und verpasste Chancen der Verstaatlichung von Unternehmen (z.b. das Verhandlungsdesaster bei der AUA-Rettung), Wegfall sinnloser Zwangsmitgliedschaften (WKO), Überarbeitung des lächerlichen Strafmaßes für Alko- und Drogenlenker (wir sind EU-weit Schlusslicht), Sinnvolle Restrukturierung des Bundesheeres. Und und und (das sind die einzigen Sachen die mir grad am Heisl eingefallen sind). Was ist da jetzt eigentlich die letzten Monate passiert, ausser einem desaströsen Corona Management. Nicht einmal die wIrTsChAfT wurde sinnhaftig bedient. Da gabs weder einen Plan, noch Konzepte, noch langfristige Überlegungen. Stattdessen gabs Kohle an die Firmen (aber nicht alle) und aus. Well done. Slow Clap Und da wären wir beim Knackpunkt angekommen. Die Typen denken einfach nicht nach. Können sie auch nicht, weil sie keinen Schimmer davon haben was sie tun sollen. In jedem Bereich den sie angreifen hinterlassen sie verbrannte Erde und tun gleichzeitig so, als hätten sie das einzig Richtige gemacht. Jetzt kommt dann sicher ein Topcomment wie: "aBeR dIe AnDeReN pArTeIeN sInD nIcHt bEsSeR". Vielleicht stimmt das, vielleicht auch nicht. Wir haben seit Ewigkeiten einen türkisen (ehemals schwarzen) Stillstandsblock in der Regierung der sich einen Bullshit nach dem anderen gönnt und dabei "alles richtig macht". Parteien müssen Verantwortung für Ihr Handeln übernehmen und nicht nur Lobbys bedienen. Vor allem sollten Sie gesellschaftliche und ökonomische Barrieren beseitigen. Und das geht halt nur mit Leuten die in dem Bereich bewandert sind und nicht auf Spaltung aus sind. Ich weiß schon, dass diese Partei die Konsequenz des demokratischen Willens ist, aber vielleicht sollte man künftig darüber nachdenken, welche langfristigen Schäden dadurch verursacht werden (Beispiel Corona Hilfen. Wer wird das zurückzahlen, unsere Kinder oder Enkelkinder? Nichts gemacht in oben genannten Bereichen obwohl vieles davon für Post-Corona mmn absolute Voraussetzung ist). Ich finds traurig wenn man sich von PR-Spins blenden lässt und dabei der Fokus auf völlig falsche Dinge gelenkt wird. Ich hoffe wirklich, die Leute lernen was aus den letzten Jahren. Sonst schauts hier bei aus eher traurig aus. Sorry für den long post. Ich werd mir jetzt den oasch abwischen und spülen. Danke fürs Lesen.
How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know. So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.
THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:
Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...
ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.
Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects. Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all...
Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):
https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
$APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
$CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
$TLRY gets a UK deal
$TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price. THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:
NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.
IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF- do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.
SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.
Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent. Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof:https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
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