Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.	Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.	Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.	Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.	Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.	Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.	Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.	Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.	Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures ~~suicidal thoughts~~ losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.	Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.	Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.	Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.	Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.	Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.	Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.	Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.	Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.	Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.	Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.	49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.	Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.	Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.	Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.	Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.	Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.	Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.	Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.	Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.	Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.	Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.	Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.	Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

Super Bowl LV Proposition Bets

MAC is going to get it done the way it's supposed to be done tonight, our NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (VMI +16 vs FURMAN -16)

32 Teams/32 Days: Day 14: The Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers

Division: NFC North
Record: 7-9 (2-4 Division) (3rd in NFC North)
Last season's post.

Introduction

In 2016, the Packers went 10-6 and kept the dream alive all the way to the NFC Championship Game. In 2017, the Packers went 7-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Get out your black light and latex gloves -- we have a murder mystery on our hands. Who killed the Packers' season?

Statistics

The elephant in the room that was Green Bay's 2017 season was that they trotted out one of the worst starters in the league for 10 games. Note the stark differences between the Packers with Rodgers and the Packers with Hundley:
Offense

Category	Stat (Rank)	W/Rodgers	W/Hundley
Offensive DVOA	0.4% (15th)	-	-
Points/Game	19.5 (21st)	25.7 (5th)	15.2 (30th)
Yards/Game	305.7 (26th)	344.5 (13th)	282.4 (31st)
Yards/Play	4.9 (22nd)	5.7 (8th)	4.4 (32nd)
Turnovers	25 (T-23rd)	24.0 prorated (T-22nd)	25.6 prorated (26th)
Pass DVOA	-1.4% (25th)	-	-
Pass Yards/Game	198.0 (25th)	248.2 (9th)	167.8 (32nd)
Net Pass Yards/Attempt	5.2 (30th)	5.8 (19th)	4.8 (32nd)
Interceptions	18 (T-28th)	16.0 prorated (T-25th)	19.2 prorated (30th)
Rush DVOA	10.1% (4th)	-	-
Rush Yards/Game	107.8 (17th)	96.3 (27th)	114.6 (15th)
Rush Yards/Attempt	4.5 (4th)	4.5 (3rd)	4.4 (7th)
Fumbles Lost	7 (T-12th)	8.0 prorated (T-14th)	6.4 prorated (12th)

With Rodgers -- including the Carolina game, where he came back too early and threw 3 picks in a game for the first time since 2009 -- the Packers looked roughly like a top-10 offense. With Hundley, they were somewhere between the 30th- and 32nd-"best" offense.
Defense

Category	Stat (Rank)	W/Rodgers	W/Hundley
Defensive DVOA	4.9% (20th)	-	-
Points Allowed/Game	23.1 (30th)	21.5 (21st)	24.1 (31st)
Yards Allowed/Game	348.9 (22nd)	332.2 (16th)	358.9 (27th)
Yards Allowed/Play	5.5 (25th)	5.5 (24th)	5.5 (25th)
Turnovers	22 (T-13th)	24.0 prorated (12th)	20.8 prorated (19th)
Pass Defense DVOA	21.6% (26th)	-	-
Pass Yards Allowed/Game	236.8 (23rd)	205.8 (6th)	255.4 (31st)
Opp Pass Yards/Attempt	6.9 (29th)	6.4 (21st)	7.2 (30th)
Interceptions	11 (T-20th)	8.0 prorated (T-28th)	12.8 prorated (18th)
Rush Defense DVOA	-13.0% (8th)	-	-
Rush Yards Allowed/Game	112.1 (17th)	126.3 (29th)	103.5 (8th)
Rush Yards Allowed/Attempt	3.9 (9th)	4.3 (24th)	3.6 (5th)
Fumbles Recovered	11 (T-7th)	18.7 prorated (1st)	6.4 prorated (22nd)

Broadly speaking, the defense also played significantly worse with Hundley at the helm. With Rodgers, it was a slightly below-average unit (20th in DVOA, 21st in points, 16th in yards). With Hundley, it took off like Sunny Bono down a ski slope (31st in points, 27th in yards).
General

Category	Stat (Rank)	W/Rodgers	W/Hundley
Point Differential	-64 (23rd)	+48 prorated (11th)	-131 prorated (29th)
Pythagorean Wins	6.2 (22nd)	8.9 (14th)	4.7 (29th)
Opponent Win %	0.539 (T-5th)	0.531 (T-8th)	0.544 (3rd)
Overall DVOA	-3.3% (17th)	-	-
Special Teams DVOA	1.3% (14th)	-	-

The million-dollar question of our murder mystery is: Was Rodgers was propping up a bad team, or was Hundley dragging down a pretty good team? Is Hundley the killer, for licking more ass than Two Tone Malone? Or did Ted Thompson shoot the roster full of holes, only for Mike McCarthy to drive the getaway car into the ditch because Dom Capers failed to stop it? We'll revisit this as we go through the regular season, but let's do an autopsy on the team, first.

Draft Picks

"Overall" numbers are approximate after the 3rd round due to compensatory picks, which could be announced as soon as today. Right now Overthecap.com projects that the Packers will receive 1 additional 3rd round pick, plus 3 more 5th rounders.

Round	Pick	Overall
1	14	14
2	13	45
3	12	76
4	14	~110
5	13	~141
6	12	~172
7	14	~206

Upcoming Free Agents

The "Projected Market Value" for our biggest free agent, Morgan Burnett, is from Spotrac.com (see link for more information on comparable players/contracts). The projected values for Brooks, House, Evans, Goode, and Dial are simply the values of the one-year deals they all signed in 2017; none of them wildly over- or under-performed their paper.
DickRod's projected value is based on Ed Dickson's (get it?) current deal, which happens to be somewhere between the value of Mychal Rivera's 2017 deal with the Jags and Dennis Pitta's 2014 deal with the Ravens. All three started their careers with roughly DickRod's level of production, and signed their comp deals around DickRod's current age.
All other players will likely sign for at or near the league minimum.

Player	Position	FA Type¹	Projected Market Value
Morgan Burnett	S	UFA	4 yrs, $9.8 million AAV
Ahmad Brooks	OLB	UFA	1 yr, $3.5 million AAV
Davon House	CB	UFA	1 yr, $2.8 million AAV
Jahri Evans	G	UFA	1 yr, $2.3 million AAV
Quinton Dial	DE	UFA	1 yr, $0.8 million AAV
DickRod	TE	UFA	3 yrs, $2.0 million AAV
Brett Goode	LS	UFA	-
Ulrick John	T	UFA	-
Demetri Goodson	CB	UFA	-
Jeff Janis	WR	UFA	-
Joe Thomas	ILB	RFA	-
Jacob Schum	P	RFA	-
Joe Kerridge	FB	ERFA	-
Gerronimo Allison	WR	ERFA	-
Joe Callahan	QB	ERFA	-
Justin McCray	G	ERFA	-
Jermaine Whitehead	S	ERFA	-
Lucas Patrick	C	ERFA	-
Taybor Pepper	LS	ERFA	-
Donatello Brown	CB	ERFA	-
Michael Clark Duncan	WR	ERFA	-
Adam Pankey	G	ERFA	-
Herb Waters	WR	ERFA	-

¹ "UFA" = "Unrestricted Free Agent," "RFA" = "Restricted Free Agent," and "ERFA" = "Exclusive-Rights Free Agent." It's easiest to retain ERFAs, a bit harder to retain RFAs, and significantly harder to retain UFAs. More information on the distinctions can be found here.

Potential Free Agent Losses

Morgan Burnett
This is the one player that would be a significant loss. Take a look at his career numbers alongside one well-regarded peer:

Name	Games	INTs	Deflections	FFs	Sacks	Tackles	TDs
Morgan Burnett	102	9	46	8	7.5	511	1
Mystery Player A	109	12	50	9	2.0	434	0

Both players have been similarly durable (each entered the league in 2010). "Mystery Player A" has a few more picks, but Burnett has more sacks and tackles. Burnett is himself, and Mystery Player A is... Kam Chancellor. I'm not going to die on the "Burnett is better" hill, but the two are at least in the same ballpark. Burnett also moonlights at ILB and CB in certain subpackages (apparently playing the latter quite well), handles a majority of pre-snap signal calling, and is one of the longest-tenured members of the defense.
He's also 29, plays a position where losing a step can be a huge liability, missed a quarter of 2017 due to injury, and in 2018 only graded out as "average" at Pro Football Focus. One intriguing option is the franchise tag, which next year is estimated to be around $11 million for safeties (compare this to the projected $9.8 million AAV of a long-term deal). A one-year tag would also allow potential replacement Josh Jones (a '17 draft pick) to grow a bit more before being thrust into a larger role.
Ahmad Brooks, Davon House, and Jahri Evans
These guys all fall squarely in the "nice to have" category. None of these players lit the world on fire, but they were all reliable, capable players -- every team can use a few cogs like that. Brooks (1.5 sacks on 346 snaps, "average" per PFF), House (great in coverage through most of the year), and Evans (3 penalties, 3.5 sacks allowed, "average" per PFF) all played well enough to earn NFL contracts in 2018, and the Packers could use them all back on modest, one-year deals. On one hand, there's a real value to shoring up the roster with veterans that don't break the bank -- not everyone on the roster can be a superstar, and there are some roster spots where "average" is acceptable. On the other hand, the team can't pay everyone veteran money, the performance of these players isn't that far above what could be expected from a draft pick/UDFA/second-year player, and every time the team keeps a Davon that means potentially cutting the next Tramon Williams or Sam Shields.
Quinton Dial
Dial did not stand out on the stat sheet (0 sacks, 12 tackles on <30% of defensive snaps) and graded out as "poor" on PFF. He's a backup who drew minimal FA interest last season. As he was a step down from even the modest production of the Brooks/House/Evans group, he falls into the "move on and give his snaps to a fresh face" bucket.
DickRod
DickRod is probably not worth even the modest $2.0 million AAV contract he's projected to earn. He's not a notably good blocker, he isn't particularly good after the catch, and he can't stretch the field. His hands are his best asset, and even they aren't anything special -- of the 54 tight ends who've had 100+ targets since DickRod sprung into the league, he ranks 26th in catch percentage. If signed he would get the short end of a timeshare with Lance Kendricks, who we're already paying to be an unspectacular veteran presence. I think a ton of TEs could match DickRod's production with Rodgers at the helm, and he doesn't bring enough or play a crucial enough position to warrant the cap space and roster spot it'd take to hold on to him.
Jeff Janis
I'll never forget the '15 Divisional round against the Cardinals. Dude had 145 yards and 2 TDs, including 101 yards on two Hail Marys during the last drive of regulation to send the game into overtime. He didn't even have the common courtesy to tell Pat Peterson "bite the pillow" before going in dry, but then goddamn Larry Fitzgerald power bottomed right back in OT. I turned the TV off, went straight to the White Horse Saloon, drank a bottle of cheap whiskey, vaguely remember the band playing "Eastbound and Down" at closing time, ate about a dozen street tacos, then stumbled back to my hotel and drug my ass out of bed 4 hours later for a meeting. Good times.
I love Jeff Janis, and sometimes if you love something you have to not even bring it back for the minimum because a good special teams gunner who isn't going to grow into anything more isn't worth a roster spot. Keeping him in 2018 might mean cutting the next Donald Driver.
Everyone Else
The team's remaining UFAs will come back for the minimum if they come back at all, so they don't warrant much discussion. Bring them to camp, let them earn a spot. Joe Thomas (the ILB) probably won't draw a lot of attention from other teams as a RFA, so he should be brought into camp cheap as well. Jake Schum (P), the other RFA, might be worth a minimal investment to keep around -- he's not exceptional, but he's adequate and could grow into above average. I expect us to retain all of our ERFAs, because they're all essentially on cheap team options.

2017 -- Look Back At It

Preseason Expectations
At the end of the 2016 season, CB and RB were top needs, with some concern about ILB play, TE, and the pass rush.

CB: After Sam Shields went down early in the year the team was forced to roll with second-year men Ladarius Gunter, Damarious Randall, and Quinten Rollins. Including the postseason, they gave up passer ratings of 112.4, 113.4, and 133.8, respectively. Despite his sky-high passer rating against, Rollins earned the best PFF grade of the group... at 58.1, or "poor." Gunter and especially Randall were significantly lower, and yet they were still better than the various practice squad guys we trotted out late in the season. Micah Hyde moonlighted a bit at corner, but didn't play there primarily and still only qualified as "average." Coming into 2017, even with the free agent addition of Davon House and a high 2nd-rounder spent on Kevin King, the entire position group was a question mark.
RB: Despite a few impressive yards/attempt showings (5.1 for Eddie Lacy, 5.9 for Ty Montgomery) no Green Bay running back eclipsed 500 rushing yards in 2016. Between injuries and ineffectiveness the team gave 246 carries to the likes of 30-year-old James Starks, Christine Michael, Knile Davis, and Don Jackson, plus assorted FBs and WRs. Montgomery appeared to be the best option by the end of the year, but outside of a casual fist-fucking of the Bears (162 yards, 10.1 yards/attempt, 2 TDs) he only had two other games with 50+ yards on the ground. General Manager Ted Thompson added 3 backs through the draft coming into 2017, but none were taken higher than the 4th round.
ILB: This position had been a concern since before AJ Hawk left, back before the 2015 season. 2016 rookie Blake Martinez was expected to make an impact early, but he wound up playing just 43% of defensive snaps, including less than 25% of defensive snaps in each of the last three regular season games. The consensus was that he had tailed off or gotten into the coaches' doghouse. He, along with fellow ILBs Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas, remained unproven after 2016. Despite no standout in the position group, no ILBs were added through the draft or free agency heading into 2017.
TE: As noted above, DickRod has never been bad, but he's never been good at anything, either. He's the type of player who's OK as a backup if he's cheap, but if you have him as a starter he's on the upgrade list. DickRod had played all 16 games in 2016, and wound up with about as many targets and exactly as many receptions as the talented (but injured and ultimately overhyped) Jared Cook. Teddy T swapped out Cook for Martellus Bennett before 2017 in what was perceived at the time as an upgrade.
Pass rush: Although the team tied for 6th in the league with 40 sacks in 2016, the only Packer with 10+ sacks was Nick Perry, who had an injury-plagued history and who had never come up with more than 4 sacks in a season before. The team's second-leading sack artist, Julius Peppers, left for Carolina after 2016. Clay Matthews -- the only other Packer that year with 5+ sacks -- had just 5 sacks, and had just turned 30. The front office added 3rd-round DT Montravius Adams, 4th-round OLB Vince Biegel, and 33-year-old free agent Ahmad Brooks to shore up the group heading into 2017, but concerns lingered.

Nonetheless, the 8-game "Run the Table" streak that took Green Bay to the 2016 NFC Championship Game ensured that preseason expectations were right up there with the best of the NFL. Six Sports Illustrated writers had Green Bay in the Super Bowl, and two others had them in the NFC Championship Game. All seven writers at CBSsports.com had the Packers winning the NFC North, and three had them in the Super Bowl. ESPN was similarly rosy, projecting that Green Bay would go 12-4. Oh, my sweet summer child.
Regular Season Recap

Packers vs. Seahawks, W 17-9. With the stage set, let's go through the victim's last moments. The Packers opened the year with a tough home win against Seattle. Despite a halting game from the offense, the D balled out and kept Lore and Co. out of the endzone. Recently departed Eddie Lacy runs for a whopping 3 yards on 5 carries; he goes on to average just 2.6 yards/attempt on the year despite averaging 5.1 yards/attempt in 2016 with Green Bay (and very publicly meeting Seattle's offseason weight goals). Is this a (raging) clue that the Packers' offensive line is actually pretty good, or just further evidence that Seattle's line blows? Maybe it's both?
Packers @ Falcons, L 23-34. The Falcons jump out to a 31-7 lead, and they're shitting their pants. At first it's just a little squeak from between clenched cheeks when the announcers first bring up 28-3. But then Rodgers starts to go off -- he finishes with 343 yards passing, and the Falcons finish soaking through their shorts. The announcers keep bringing up 28-3. Ty Montgomery keeps squirting through holes en route to 110 yards (on 16 carries) from scrimmage and 2 TDs. The Falcons keep furiously squirting hot lava. The announcers keep hammering 28-3. Matt Bryant has died of dysentery. Is there a (raging) clue here about shitty defense? Is allowing 27 defensive points (7 came from an Atlanta fumble return for a TD) to a team that averaged 33.8 points per game in 2016 that bad, or does shit like that just happen in the modern NFL?
Packers vs. Bengals, W (OT) 27-24. Again we see the Packers go down early, falling behind 21-7 after Rodgers' first career pick six. The defense locks up, and Green Bay is able to tie it up and then (finally) get Rodgers a win in OT. At this point close observers were starting to worry about Ty Montgomery -- through this game he had just 124 rushing yards while averaging almost exactly 3.0 yards/attempt. Had the front office adequately addressed the RB position in the offseason? Is the line just not good enough?
Packers vs. Bears, W 35-14. According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers had a 94.3% chance of winning with 9:49 on the clock... in the first quarter. Rodgers chipped in 4 TDs (on just 179 yards passing!), Aaron Jones sees his first significant action (49 yards on 13 carries, 1 TD), and Chicago coughs up 4 turnovers. The calm before the storm.
Packers @ Cowboys, W 35-31. In a troublingly familiar pattern, the Packers are down 21-6 halfway through the 2nd quarter. In addition to Rodgers posting a sterling 122.9 passer rating, the comeback happens because of two breakout games. First, Aaron Jones goes for 125 and a TD on 19 carries, treating Dallas linebackers like Ezekiel Elliot treats Dallas DJs. Second, Damarious Randall -- coming off a awful sophomore season, coming off getting benched against Mike Fellatiating Glennon the week before -- comes up with a pick six and some clutch coverage down the stretch. We're also seeing the rise of Davante Adams (7 for 66 and 2 TDs) and the fall of Jordy Nelson (2 for 24 and 1 TD). The (raging) clues here point to a pretty decent supporting cast for Rodgers.
Packers @ Vikings, L 10-23. Aw, fuck. Rodgers gets railed (with gawd as my witness he's broken in half!), Hundley gets railed (39.6 passer rating!), Jones comes back to earth (41 yards on 13 carries), and Monty continues his poor start (28 yards on 10 carries). Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, shooting up and listening to "The End" on a loop. The defense didn't play bad overall (23 points allowed; the Vikings would average 23.9 for the season) but Hundley sure didn't get a ton of help from the rest of the offense.
Packers vs. Saints, L 17-26. Hundley plays awful -- 39.9 passer rating, 87 passing yards -- but the defense plays reasonably well (gives up 26; the Saints average 28.0 on the year) and Jones comes to play (131 yards and a TD on 17 carries). The Packers actually have a 52.5% chance of winning early in the 4th quarter. At this point it looks like if Hundley can improve a little, and if we can ride Jones for a stretch, and if the defense keeps playing OK we might be able to hang in there. I think this perspective (and a general lack of quality backup options) is what kept the front office/coaching staff from picking up another QB over the upcoming bye week. At the same time, this game is squarely on Hundley -- he had the run game working, the defense wasn't getting torched, but he couldn't even move the ball 100 yards in the air.
Packers vs. Lions, L 17-30. After an extra week of preparation, Hundley plays... reasonably well. 245 yards passing and an 86.0 passer rating is a huge improvement over the Saints game. That performance probably would have won the Saints game. The problem is A) the defense gets lit up and B) the run game fails to show up. This wasn't a game where it's close throughout and a late Lions TD makes the score look worse; this is a game where the Packers were down 10, then 17, then 20 before scoring a garbage time TD of their own to make it look more respectable. Based solely (raging) clue is now pointing towards the roster not offering enough support for the QB. No 40-yard rusher, no 60-yard receiver.
Packers @ Bears, W 23-16. It's a bad situation. The team is 4-4, headed to the Illinois Bears, and the Mitch Brutitsky has replaced the giraffe. Everyone is looking forward at the schedule -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Cleveland -- and wondering how likely a 3-1 record over that stretch is if Chicago wins today. Hundley takes another step forward -- 110.7 passer rating, 212 yards, 1 TD -- and after Jones goes down with an ACL sprain Jamaal Williams and Monty combine for 142 yards from scrimmage. Adams shows up (5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD), too, and while the defense gives up almost 297 yards and a big TD late, it locks down in crunch time and holds on for the win. This is the blueprint that was envisioned after the Saints game: Passable passing, a strong run game, solid enough defense. No one is calling for Hundley's head at this point (why would they?) and it's back to looking like he has enough tools around him to make this thing work.
Packers vs. Ravens, L 0-23. Just when everything was going so well, Hundley craps out a 4-turnover game. He moved the ball alright (239 yards), Williams ran hard against a good defensive front (95 yards from scrimmage), and Adams brought his fistin' shoes (8 catches for 126 yards)... the turnovers were just insurmountable. The Ravens kicked field goals after drives starting on the Packers' 29 and 30, and scored a TD after a drive starting on the Packers' 3. That's all but 10 of the Ravens' points that the offense gifted them. A cleaner offensive game would have been highly winnable -- it was only 0-6 at the half -- but Hundley just didn't have it. He had plenty of help; Hundley's starting to look like the season killer.
Packers @ Steelers, L 28-31. Aaaaand he's back -- 245 yards, 3 TDs, 134.3 passer rating. He got a lot of help from Williams (135 yards from scrimmage, 2 TDs) and some big catches from Adams (5 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD), but Hundley played about as good of game as he could against a legitimate opponent on the road. This is one reason why the front office/coaching staff never picked up another QB -- every time Hundley shat the bed, he'd follow it up with a "huh, maybe he can do it" performance. The defense didn't play well, but they did keep three Hall of Famers from running away with the game. This is another loss where the team had a legitimate shot to win; another (raging) clue that the roster isn't all that bad. Bad rosters wind up in a lot more blowouts.
Packers vs. Buccaneers, W (OT) 26-20. Plenty of help from the running game (113 rush yards and a TD from Williams, a walk-off 20-yard TD from Jones in OT) and the defense turned in a winnable performance (7 sacks, a turnover, 20 points allowed, clutch stop late). Hundley forgot how to pass again (84 yards, 48.3 passer rating) but was a huge factor on the ground during the last two scoring drives (39 of his 66 rushing yards came after 6:00 left in the 4th). This is reason number two why the Packers didn't bring in another QB -- even when he couldn't pass, he could still run to the tune of 7.5 yards/attempt over the course of the season.
Packers @ Browns, W (OT) 27-21. The trap game of all trap games. The winless Browns, late in the season, playing a team with a backup QB. No one knows what to expect of Hundley at this point -- is he going to be Steelers Hundley or Buccaneers Hundley? Despite yet another slow start -- a flashback-inducing 7-21 deficit heading into the 4th -- he wound up with a 111.2 passer rating on 265 yards and 3 TDs. He even chipped in 31 yards on the ground to compliment Williams' 118 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs, and Adams further solidified his role on the team with 10 catches for 84 yards and 2 TDs. The return game even came to life with a key 65-yard punt return to set up the tying score. The defense struggled early but pitched a shutout in the 4th quarter and OT, including a pick that gave the offense the ball in Cleveland territory on the final drive. Pretty? No, but it got the job done. Isn't that what good teams do? How often do bad teams get big picks to ice the game, or pull out 60+ yard punt returns when it's late and close? We keep seeing example after example of the team getting itself in a position to win, which does an awful lot to exonerate the front office and coaching staff. And ultimately, the roster and coaching staff were good enough to keep the ship afloat long enough for Rodgers to have something to come back to. Isn't that the primary goal of any team who's forced to start their backup?
Packers @ Panthers, L 24-31. And just like that, it's gone. Rodgers played well all things considered, but he clearly was physically limited, and that resulted in 3 uncharacteristic turnovers. That makes all the difference in a one-score game. What's important to our mystery of "who killed the Packers season?" is how the rest of the team played, and if they folded when playing with a clearly reduced Rodgers (71.5 passer rating). Williams and Jones combined for an efficient 77 rush yards on 13 carries, two receivers went over 70 yards, and three different players caught a TD pass. The special teams unit pulled out an onside kick when everyone in the stadium knew it was coming, and Rodgers was able to march into Carolina territory before a Geronimo Allison fumble iced the game. Again, non-QB parts of the team stepping up and giving a limited passer an opportunity to win. My (raging) clue is pointed pretty solidly towards Hundley at this point.
Packers vs. Vikings, L 0-16. With playoff hopes eliminated, the Packers decided to tank. They shut down their MVP-caliber QB, and who knows how many other medical decisions suddenly became far more cautious because there was nothing to play for. Still, another winnable game. It was 10-0 at the half, and the Vikings' last field goal was gifted to them after a drive that started on the Green Bay 14; the essentially gave up just 13 to an offense that averaged 24 in the regular season. Had Hundley had a passer rating above 30.2 maybe the Packers could have stayed in it. His hands are looking pretty bloody.
Packers @ Lions, L 11-35. 113 combined yards from Williams, 59.7 passer rating from Hundley. The defense got shredded through the air (140.4 passer rating for Stafford), but the offense never really gave the team a chance, either. A bad game all around, but hey, they were tanking.

Regular Season Summary
What's to make of all of this? Hundley was the killer, with the turnover, in the stadium. The rest of the team -- even the defense, which wasn't great by any stretch -- played well enough to win most games. Competent (not great) QB play could have potentially turned both shutouts and the Saints game into wins, and it could have given the Packers a puncher's chance in the less-competitive contests. Hundley and his 70.6 passer rating let the team down more than the team let Hundley down.

New Addition Review/Statuses

Martellus Bennett, TE
Free agent acquisition, released just 7 games into a 3-year contract. Did not score a TD, did not stretch the field (9.7 yards/reception), was on pace for just 533 yards. Fans said he was a great blocker, but the team's run and pass blocking didn't seem to suffer too much after he left, and "he's a great blocker" is notoriously hard to quantify. The warning signs were there, the risk was probably worth it, but the team got burned. This happens as often as not with big-name free agents. Picked up by Patriots, put on IR shortly after.
Lance Kendricks, TE
Free agent acquisition. 203 yards, 1 TD, 11.3 yards/reception. Not a huge impact, but flashed some good speed and made a few big plays (one 50+ yard reception, two more 20+ yard receptions). Signed for one more year at a reasonable price ($2.25 million cap hit for 2018). Makes sense to keep for a team that needs downfield weapons.
Ahmad Brooks, OLB
Free agent acquisition. Dinged up a bit (missed 4 games) but added a little pass rush at a position where the team can use all the help it can get. Currently a free agent.
Davon House, CB
Free agent acquisition. Graded out highly in coverage per PFF but received a "poor" overall grade from the same source. Either he's fine playing the receiver but struggles mightily in run support or PFF's grades don't quite add up. I'm going for a little of both. My general impression from watching him, reading about him, and the demand for him around the league is that he's fine, but not a player teams want to rely heavily on. It's OK if he's your third guy; it's not OK if he's your #1. Currently a free agent.
Jahri Evans, G
Free agent acquisition. By all accounts handled himself capably. "Average" PFF grade. Currently a free agent.
Ricky Jean Francois, DL
Free agent acquisition. Played sparingly (<6% of eligible snaps) and did not make an impact, released after 6 games, picked up by the Patriots. Currently a free agent.
Quinton Dial, DL
Free agent acquisition. Backup NT (<30% of eligible snaps), did not fill stat sheet, did not jump off the screen.
Kevin King, CB
Draft pick, 33rd overall. Played 9 games, 21 tackles, 5 deflections, 0 INTs, allowed a 102.9 passer rating when targeted, received "poor" grade from PFF. Saw heavy snaps when healthy, placed on IR mid-season. Underwent shoulder surgery. Question mark going forward.
Josh Jones, S
Draft pick, 61st overall. Played 16 games, 56 tackles, 5 deflections, 1 INT, 2 sacks, played about 70% of eligible snaps, received "poor" grade from PFF. Moonlighted a bit at ILB, potentially being groomed as Morgan Burnett's replacement. Looked beat sometimes on tape, but also made some plays. Question mark going forward.
Montravius Adams, DT
Draft pick, 93rd overall. Played sparingly in 7 games, 1 tackle. Foot injury sidelined him for beginning of season. Question mark going forward.
Vince Biegel, OLB
Draft pick, 108th overall. Played 9 games after foot injury early in season. 7 tackles. Question mark going forward.
Jamaal Williams, RB
Draft pick, 134th overall. Tough runner, above-average receiver. Finished with 556 rushing yards and 262 receiving yards, but had a concerningly low 3.6 yards/attempt. Will likely be contest between him and Aaron Jones for the starting job in 2018.
DeAngelo Yancy, WR
Draft pick, 175th overall. Did not take regular season snap with Packers. Cut, signed to practice squad. Question mark going forward.
Aaron Jones, RB
Draft pick, 182nd overall. Explosive runner, did not show much as a receiver. Finished with 448 rushing yards and just 22 receiving yards. Averaged a robust 5.5 yards/attempt. Will likely be contest between him and Jamaal Williams for the starting job in 2018.
Kofi Amichia, OL
Draft pick, 212th overall. Did not take regular season snap with Packers. Cut, signed to practice squad. Question mark going forward.
Devante "Billy" Mays, RB
Draft pick, 238th overall. Got in doghouse with 2 fumbles, only received 7 touches on the year. Question mark going forward.
Malachi Dupre, WR
Draft pick, 247th overall. Did not take regular season snap with Packers. Cut, signed to Buffalo Bills practice squad.

Coaching Staff Review

The Packers have almost completely overhauled their coaching staff. You can compare the 2017 coaching staff to the 2018 vintage in as much detail as you like. I'll highlight a few of the most impactful changes.
Mike Pettine replaces Dom Capers as Defensive Coordinator
The pros of the Pettine hire are enticing. He's had highly-ranked defenses in the past, going all the way back to his days as a position coach in Baltimore. He coached up not only All Pro and HOF-caliber talent, but he also got useful seasons out of journeymen. No former players or coworkers have anything negative to say about him, and Rex Ryan thinks he'll be the best coordinator in the league. He was regarded highly enough to get a head coaching offer, and has been consulting with the Seahawks this past year.
The cons of the Pettine hire are concerning. His highly-ranked defenses came almost entirely under Rex Ryan, so there's a legitimate question of who was more responsible for the unit's success. His past defenses also were stacked with great talent, and there's no Ed Reed/Darrelle Revis/Ray Lewis/Terrell Suggs to anchor his scheme in Green Bay. While he received a head coaching job with the Browns, he was apparently not a name other teams were interested in, and it appears that the Browns hiring process was rushed. And while he had quality talent on defense in Cleveland, his second year there the defense fell apart. He hasn't coached at any level for the last two seasons, which begs the question of if he's such a great DC, why weren't teams falling over themselves to snatch him up in 2016 and 2017?
Joe Philbin replaces Edgar Bennett as Offensive Coordinator
McCarthy calls the plays and is heavily involved in the offense, and Philbin, who coached in Green Bay before, is presumably not bringing too many new ideas. This may be a case of going back to what worked before, but if what worked before was so great, and Philbin was such a big part of it, why has he only been coaching the Indy offensive line for the past two years? This smells like a cosmetic, ass-covering move, but it's possible that it's rooted in personal relationships and getting the "right guys" in the meeting rooms and on the field.
James Campen retained as OL Coach
The Packers have an excellent track record over the last few seasons at turning mid- to late-round offensive linemen in to productive pros. Campen is likely a part of that, and I'm glad to see him sticking around.
Joe Whitt, Jr. retained as Defensive Pass Game Coordinator
Joe Whitt was formerly a secondary coach with the Packers, and under him we've seen a number of young prospects stall out in recent years. He's had past success, but it seems curious that he's getting a promotion when his last few proteges have developed unevenly, or not at all.

Free Agency/Draft Concerns

The "need" hierarchy is (1) would need to make a unit average if the roster is healthy and performs well, (2) would need to make a unit good if the roster is healthy and performs well, (3) backups for injury risk positions, (4) backups for positions without significant injury risk.

CB: Still have multiple below-average corners we're relying on for heavy snaps. Must upgrade to improve defense.
OLB: Clay Matthews is aging, Nick Perry has a long injury history. If they stay healthy they're a good duo, but that's a hell of an if. The time to plan for the future is now, and you can never have too many pass rushers.
WR: Adams is the only receiver on the roster who has a definite long-term future in Green Bay. The team has sorely missed a deep threat since Jordy's injury sapped his breakaway speed, and a guy who can stretch the field vertically is the difference between MVP Rodgers and merely great Rodgers.
TE: Maybe Lance Kendricks will have a big year with a season in Green Bay, more opportunities, and a healthy Rodgers, but he was available cheap for a reason. He's never been hugely productive and he's 30. No one of note behind him except free agent DickRod, and he's the definition of marginal.

I expect new GM Brian Gutekunst to stay conservative with free agency -- he was privy to whatever discussions dissuaded the Thompson administration from taking big FA swings, and there's ample evidence that big-name free agency is a losing bet. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if some of these holes are filled with Davon House/Lance Kendricks/Jahri Evans-type vets on cheap, 1-2 year deals. The risk and reward is better balanced in that market.

Prop Bet Results thread!

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Super Bowl 55 Prop Bets Expert Game Predictions & Analysis

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Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings