Pentagon Official Elizondo makes statements regarding ETs, other species of humans, human consciousness, and the interdimensional nature of reality
For anyone that's been following the topic of UFO disclosure, the last few years have seen more official statements regarding the topic that range from an acknowledgement of a multi governmental cover up (via backchannel communication lines) to acknowledgement that we are not alone. Pentagon officials Chris Mellon and Luis Elizondo are at the forefront of this disclosure effort and Elizondo has made some notable statements recently in a series of podcast outreaches to the general public which are listed below. Edit: Several additional documented sources of information have been added to the end of this entry and these are a recommended read. TLDR: The UFOs aren't ours, we have their crafts, at times the past present and future overlap and there isn't always an even transition between them, there are other species that have been present here that experience reality in a fundamentally different way than we do and there is an interdimensional component to this, human consciousness isn't confined to the body and the body is just a life support system that carries the consciousness for a set amount of time, Elizondo has handlers that ensure the information he gives out stays within certain parameters. That UFO Podcast (2/1/2021): https://audioboom.com/posts/7788135-episode-27-luis-elizondo Lue states he's doing these podcasts because there's a media blitz he's involved with and this is part of phase 2 to reach everybody. They just need us having the conversation and it's happening. 1) He's working on a new project with the Lakota tribe and references their oral history being consistent with what we are witnessing today. 2) senior govt officials are making fake accounts to monitor the public discourse on ufo twitter 3) he keeps alluding it to being an intelligence operation with phases and they're moving onto phase 2 the international cooperation phase 4) in reference to Chris Mellon saying "it's not foreign or ours", Lue agrees to this and says basically you can't give people the information all at the same time because they will choke on it. He said it's been here for awhile it's not ours and we have to exercise caution with giving out the information to the public. 5) he said we may be led to some surprisingly simple answers 6) The interviewer brought up Lue's quote on "what if it wasn't mankind but it's mankinds". Lue struggles to answer this. He says we live in a 3D world where time is a function of the fourth dimension where time is a linear process. Space and time are joint. Spacetime is flexible. He says the linear universe we experience isn't actually linear. He gives the example of an electron: initially we are taught it revolves around the atom, now we know about the electron cloud where it's both present and not present in the same area at any given time. The present is a moment in spacetime where the future is transitioning into the past. He uses a cigarette as an example: the future is the unburned part and the burnt part is the past. The burning area is the present. That's how we experience it, the infinitesimally small burning area. WHAT IF there are things that can experience a larger part of the present than we can. What if there's a SPECIES OUT THERE that can experience the universe with an extra level of dimension. Meaning more elements of the future and past are experienced in the present. He gives the example of him being there having the ability to have that same conversation he's presently having 5 minutes before then or 5 minutes after it. He alludes to the possibility of these UAP not being experienced/seen by us because we aren't intersecting with their dimension at particular points in time. 7) he says with the example of the cigarette burning there's an uneven burn, and this translates to our past present and future intersecting and overlapping unevenly at points. 8) mankinds: the possibilities are limitless, every time we put a limitation on nature it displays there aren't limits. 9) we need to be cautious how we define life. He says life 'out there' might be fairly abundant. 10) when the interviewer asks lue a few questions at the end, he asks, "is it mankind or mankinds", lue turns the question back at the interviewer who states "Mankinds plural", lue says he would go with Mankinds also. This is Elizondo explicitly stating yet again there are other humans out there, and this goes exactly with what Bigelow recently stated in a George Knapp interview that he believes there are ETs, hybrids, and others that look like humans that are right here walking among us. This dovetails also with a Russian general stating the same thing to a reporter live on video (referenced below) He states disclosure is a process and we are in the middle of this right now. It's the recognition that the earth isn't the center of the solar system and we are in the throes of realizing this fact (humans aren't alone) There's a lot of opportunity with this Astronaut states aliens may be here: https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/06/uk/helen-sharman-aliens-exist-scli-scn-gbr-intl/index.html Russian prime minister Dmitriy Medvedev states aliens walk among us: https://youtu.be/dPigVM7mpAo https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2012/12/08/russian-premier-jokes-aliens/1755717/ Fade to Black Radio (2/2/2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrPYFQaJe3g Lue: "I've seen data indicating uap interfere with uap strike capability both defense and offense In Russia it's brought the nuclear capabilities online and here it's turned them offline. Interviewer says it's the most important statement in human history when Eric Davis briefed the Senate saying we have flying saucers. Interviewer asks Lue if it's true and Lue says it's true "Eric Davis doesn' lie" and then eventually says it's basically true. 2:08:20 interviewer asks "have you ever seen a ufo" Lue said he saw a lot of them because it was his job. Interviewer asks if he's seen one 'out' as a private citizen (while he was out in public not on government time) and he said he will answer it next time. He says he wants to present the information in a neutral manner with no personal bias or experiences introduced, just the facts. (Basically he's saying he saw UFOs while at work, meaning the government is in possession of multiple full UFOs or has many photos/videos of them.) Elizondo says the UAP can go 13,000 mph in our atmosphere. Elizondo describes ancient Roman battlefield observations of UFOs that looked like flaming shields that followed the soldiers from battlefield to battlefield. The same observables we observe now are all there in accounts of UAPs from the middle ages, Roman times, pre recorded history of the indigenous people. 2:15:23 Interviewer: "is the tic tac not of this Earth"? Lue responds: "Is the tic tac us or foreign adversary technology the answer is no. Is it from this Earth we don't know. We don't know if they're from outer space inner space or in between. There's a whole reality around us that we don't interact with and we are only now starting to explore quantum states. All these realities are part of the natural environment which we just don't perceive. We are very limited as a species in 3 dimensional space with time as an aspect of the fourth dimension expressed in a linear fashion for us. That's not to say there's not other things all around us. We can only experience the universe through 5 senses, yet we know that we can only perceive 1% of 1% of the universe that's around us. Most of the universe remains completely invisible to us, I don't mean the universe out there, I mean the universe right here (our personal surroundings). We know less than 5% about our deepest oceans we don't have an understanding of what lives on our own planet let alone anywhere else. It's foolhardy for us to say definitively "the buck stops with us, if we can't see it then it doesn't exist", it's clearly not true". Lue: We look at the world through a very narrow electromagnetic spectrum and that's just a sliver of what's really out there. We look at everything in terms of on or off and the universe doesn't work in that way. 2:21 he insinuates there is backchannel communications between countries regarding UAPs. He then states that he hopes this topic forces enemy governments to become friends to work together to discuss this topic and work together. 2:25 the ships and submarines have nuclear technology which is what the UAP are interested in and they are conducting surveillance on our nuclear capabilities. 2:26 the uap are 100% not ours and absolutely not a test of our own technology on our carrier groups and anyone who says that doesn't know how the government works 2:29 interviewer asks him what he's working on, and he says a permanent solution because UAPs are a persistent problem. A persistent capability is needed to address a persistent problem. He and Chris Mellon are part of a long term effort and TTSA has its own separate mission. 2:32 he maintains his DoD contacts and this effort is about helping the government do the job it's supposed to do and it's a coordinated effort. 2:35 the interviewer basically asks him if he has a government handler. Lue says they contact him frequently "I get texts all the time" regarding keeping within certain parameters with what he's saying from "the man" aka the government. Lue is basically saying he has a government handler. Project Unity (2/3/2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpi0YXboDQM 33:50 - interviewer asks "have you been warned by the govt to not discuss specific things" 33:14 - 34:30 lue basically says yes he has been warned by government affiliates (handlers) and he has to report regularly to security advisors. 38:50 - 40 : if people are abducted, that's kidnapping. We shouldn't be trusting of another external advanced species. We need to approach this cautiously. He doesn't think these are "necessarily a threat" 41:33- interviewer asks "is a tic tac with it's surrounding field able to be susceptible to weapons- the theory is that if the warp field around the uap is strong enough it could create a white hole artificial event horizon that prevents anything from penetrating. This means more advanced weapons being developed are already ineffective against them. Does it mean we need to develop more advanced technology against the threats presented by the operators of UAPs."... Elizondo says if that's out there then it does present a threat especially if other countries get that technology 45- interviewer says there were practicing members of the occult that started NASA from the American side and from the Nazis during Operation Paperclip where the Nazis were brought over. 46:50- elizondo states there were always organizations and groups that influenced our country like the Freemasons and that wasn't a bad thing. The Freemasons aren't a bad force. There's a long deep rich history of all countries being influenced by outside groups that have specific agendas. It's not just NASA it's other institutions even the military there's symbolism in everything we have from the dollar bill to the flag. 51:58- Elizondo: the body itself doesn't define who we are as human beings. It's a life support mechanism for what's inside like a space ship. If you look at each brain, the brain has a lot of commonalities. That doesn't define what each human being is. There's another aspect, a soul, that is an indelible part of a human being that isn't contained within the body or the mind. Human consciousness is a quantum process and it could very well be that our brains are quantum computers and there may be a fundamental part of human beings that is not locked into a three dimensional world and that isn't a linear function of time. 57:20- Interviewer mentions the infamous slide 9 and Lue says it's true. This is notable. Edit: slide 9 can be found here: https://mindsublime.blogspot.com/2020/01/advanced-aerospace-threat-and.html?m=1 59- the interviewer asks if some of these sightings are psychological warfare being conducted against our own troops. Luis said these sightings aren't any form of warfare conducted by the US. 1:03:15- the interviewer said he used nonlocal consciousness to establish contact with some aspect of the phenomenon. He would visualize coherent thoughts and project them out into space outside at night (CE5). He began to see orbs at certain intervals. He said on Aug 25 2019 he witnessed a dark staticky cloud coming over his house then do a 90 degree change of course. The cloud then vanished and inside the cloud was a clear orange formation of orbs and it eventually vanished. He's seen them on three other occasions. He asks lue about the nexus between consciousness and quantum mechanics and the ability to exchange information over large ranges of distance. Lue said he's not surprised he's had those experiences he's spoken to many people including the pilots who have been affected profoundly to trying to pursue this topic after witnessing UAP activity. We are witnessing a multi year government mediated disclosure effort that is giving us startling information at a slow rate to make it easier for the public to marinate on. This coincides with the official rollout of the Space Force and most likely new technology derived from extraterrestrial sources. Here are some other interesting sources that have released information that dovetails with what Elizondo has said: Robert Bigelow, CEO of Bigelow Aerospace and US defense contractor has been heavily associated with US DoD research into UFOs. He makes several remarkable statements in this interview that include 1) the phenomenon in the region of skinwalker ranch has been there for millennia and is intelligent, connected to UFOs (they appear there), and interdimensional. 2) crashed UFOs may have been intentionally left by ETs for us to try and reverse engineer 3) the ET presence has been here and there are likely ETs and hybrids that look like us and that are present among us: https://youtu.be/9Sv66dG6Ldc Below: (1) and (2) delve into Bigelow's previously released interviews, while (3) delves into part II of his recently released full interview: (1) Multiple paranormal phenomena are linked to the UFO phenomenon: interviews from Bigelow and Eric Davis (PhD verified working for the DoD's UFO research program): https://www.reddit.com/UFOs/comments/l3syr8/multiple_paranormal_phenomena_are_connected_to/ (2) This post describes part of Bigelow's interview with George Knapp: https://www.reddit.com/UFOs/comments/l3gbsa/robert_bigelow_interview_with_george_knapp/ (3) Most recent interview (Part II) https://youtu.be/9Sv66dG6Ldc 20:30 onwards - you need a weightless manufacturing environment to manufacture the UFO metamaterials 22:20 onwards - we are a galactic embarrassment. We may not even be able to operate the machinery because it's consciousness driven. "We have studied Psy and phenomenology where some people can have an effect on micro PK and macro PK events and they're not supposed to be able to do that" . Bigelow is indicating here that the government has studied and verified that trained people can move objects via thought alone. 23:50 onwards- we still have the potential to turn these technologies into weapons (because we are mentally primitive). 24:50- if you were a species on another planet and had this (advanced) technology you would not give it to us 43:30 the brain and mind are separate. The brain is physical and the mind isnt. The brain can cease functioning but the mind continues. The mind is amorphous, it's outside the physical container. We think in terms of structure, that space has a limitation of distance and that there is such a thing as time. Neither of which he believes. "Time and space are infinite. What is the container for the mind? The brain is dead, but how can people in near death experiences describe things that happened when they're dead. They should have no access to the information." 53:15 onwards- Bigelow discusses physical apparitions that can be touched and felt. He states to Knapp that there are individuals they both know (DoD associated individuals) that have personally touched and felt these apparitions with significant controls (experimental controls). 1:09:40- the ETs are hybrids or look alike and could actually be among us. He says to follow the literature and the discarnate entities from skinwalker ranch are absolutely among us USAF Colonel Dedrickson confirming UFOs exist and nuclear detonations interfere with their ability to fly: https://youtu.be/BncRHgBXeGw Head of Israeli Defense Ministry's space directorate Haim Eshed states ETs are real: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weird-news/former-israeli-space-security-chief-says-extraterrestrials-exist-trump-knows-n1250333 Soviet airforce Colonel Marina Popovich's book (released in 2003) detailing UFOs and containing information on the non Earth origins of their isotopic ratios: https://itexts.net/avtor-marina-mihaylovna-popovich/271794-nlo-nad-planetoy-zemlya-marina-popovich/read/page-2.html USAF general Steven L Kwast claims we have extremely advanced space technology: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31445/recently-retired-usaf-general-makes-eyebrow-raising-claims-about-advanced-space-technology Edit: To those questioning Elizondo's credentials, read these: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/politics/pentagon-ufo-harry-reid-navy.html https://www.newsweek.com/pentagon-lot-more-classified-ufo-videos-ex-head-secret-government-program-1517003 Paul Hellyer: Former Canadian Minister of Defense- TLDR: mirrors what Elizondo has said, but Hellyer has been stating this for years. There are different species of aliens present here, some of these extraterrestrials look human and others don't, there are other humans out in the universe, there's been an increase in activity since humanity started using atomic weapons, there is a galactic federation that doesn't want to involve us because we are too primitive, the extraterrestrials want us to get our act together. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/dailybrew/former-canadian-defence-minister-paul-hellyer-says-aliens-205829262.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Hellyer Brazilian Air Force: Operation Prato- operation undertaken by the Brazilian Air Force to study heightened close range UFO activity in the Brazilian state of Para. This is extremely extensive and there are interviews with several separate verified commanders within the Brazilian Air Force which are referenced in this article (highly recommended to read, the scope of the incidents is extensive and very convincing): https://pt.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opera%C3%A7%C3%A3o_Prato Colonel Uyrangê Hollanda- gave an interview about Operation Prato regarding a very heightened period of UFO activity that occured in the Brazilian Amazon. https://youtu.be/qawjwWyIUMk This is a summary: UFOs appeared to be studying the area and appeared with regularity along their own linear flight paths spanning hundreds of miles. The UFOs appeared to respond in a semi aggressive fashion after humans started shooting at the crafts (bullets and fireworks on different occasions). The UFOs would immobilize/slow down the people with a narrow green beam then give them a small burn with a narrow red beam. (My own opinion: the green beam interacts with the body's own electrical signals and affects the central nervous system). One man died from coming too close to a UFO due to the radiation from the craft. There were 9 separate types of UFOs recorded. 4 films 500 photographs and all are classified. At 11:35 he describes the UFO he witnessed with military colleagues (30m in diameter, 200m in the air, disk, black, with a small yellow/amber light in the center). The craft brightened and emitted a yellow light then dimmed and repeated this 5 times. The craft then shut off the yellow emanating light, the small amber light in the center changed to blue, and the craft flew East (over the Atlantic). 13:40- he describes the noise coming from the craft as the pulsating sound emitted from an air conditioning unit. A second lesser sound emanating clearly from the craft was like the sound of pedaling a bicycle backwards. 15:46- he was directed to go to a site where a UFO was spotted outside of Belem. A UFO appeared and appeared different relative to his last sighting, it had a green/red light and a turbine type sound different from the previous UFO. 17:08- another one was witnessed with a yellow/amber colored light in the shape of an orb "sun" passed over tree level and over the river. He states the reflection was seen on the water and a "track" was left on the water (my opinion: not sure if that would be from air displacement or the levitating ability of the orb itself) 18:40- him and the other military personnel camped out at the river that night and witnessed another strongly lit orb "sun" much larger than the previous one. It got to where they were, switched off the light, and an object the size of an American football was there in its place. It moved slowly towards them and it had an amber light. When it came over them the light shut off and it resumed the shape of a large bright translucent orb 100m long and it had windows. The windows were lit up and along the center. After passing overhead it disappeared. He remarks it had the same pulsating deep sound of an air conditioner with the reverse bicycle brakes simultaneously. 21:44- the object reappeared at 1:30am the same night. It was a large bright orb "sun" emanating a beautiful blue light heading in the direction of Belem at tree level then it stopped and came towards them. The intensity of the light was extremely bright but didn't affect their eyes. It stopped in front of them and the light switched off after 3 minutes. In its place there was again the American Football shaped craft in a vertical position 70m in front of them and this craft was immense such that they had to bend their necks to look at the top of it. It stayed in that position for 3-5 minutes (didn't make any sound) and began going upwards. A green light appeared at the lower side and a red light at the top and these were blinking as the craft was going up slowly. It elevated to 1000m-1500m (estimated by the Air Force personnel witnessing the event). There was then a large blast (like thunder) and a flash and the object accelerated off with immense speed into the sky. This is a well sourced research article documenting convincing UFO cases spanning from pre-Roman times up till the present: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342347097_Aliens_and_UFOs Note that there are commonalities in all of these cases which include orbs, craft shapes, yellow/ambeblue emanating lights, etc. Several countries have declassified documentation they have collected regarding UFO cases. These are Spain's for example (in PDF form): https://bibliotecavirtual.defensa.gob.es/BVMDefensa/i18n/consulta/resultados_ocr.do Chinese Foreign Ministry official Sun Shili- says extraterrestrials are already here and live among us: https://youtu.be/Tfwh376S_30 13:58- "here on Earth there is the presence of beings from other planets. Some even work among us. Notably, our goal is the same as these beings. Today's Earth has undergone significant pollution and the environment, the human environment, both inner and outer, is affected." https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/11/world/beijing-journal-a-ufo-boom-doesn-t-worry-china-s-rulers.htmlHttps://rense.com/general27/for.htm Ok so this is possibly the most interesting interview as to why the Pentagon has released UFO footage and is classifying UFOs as a potential threat. This individual is stating the US will label UFOs as a threat in order to increase defense spending, and this interview is from 2013: Lachezar Filipov (Prof. Lachezar Filipov, Deputy Director of Sciences at the Bulgarian Space Research Institute) - states there will be an intentional move by the US to increase space related defense spending on the level of the proposed 1980s Strategic Defense Initiative (colloquially termed the "Star Wars Program": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defense_Initiative ... See the section labeled Space Based Programs- it seems the current Space Force may include aspects that are a continuation of this). He took this stance after hearing this information from the president of the French Aeronautical and Astronautical Association (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_A%C3%A9ronautique_et_Astronautique_de_France) and from this official organization: (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupe_d%27%C3%A9tudes_et_d%27informations_sur_les_ph%C3%A9nom%C3%A8nes_a%C3%A9rospatiaux_non_identifi%C3%A9s) This interview is from 2013 (or earlier) so it's interesting to note what he's predicted looks like it's happening: https://youtu.be/Tfwh376S_30
Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion! Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types: LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments. Team, We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED. The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there. Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range). Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too! Now let us get into it: Leadership I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left. Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company? Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense. It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job. In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below. SPACE Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the new space race. In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget. Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B. Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel. LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO) The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages. There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO. SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG) The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector. The top 6 holdings of ITA are: Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46% Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84% Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62% General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78% Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74% Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64% As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress. Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending. Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side. Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog. Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63. General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT. Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129. Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog. The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more. FREE CASH FLOW Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow. HEADWINDS New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block. Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets. Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic). TAILWINDS Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins? International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority. 5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract. TRADE IDEAS Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway. Share price today: $321.82 Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean) Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26 Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot). LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy. LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat. SOURCES https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/ https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/ https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/ https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988 https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646 https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/ https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a
Also on my blog with better formatting, cute footnotes and inlined images. Note that not much here is new material, mostly rehashing existing points.
Disclaimer
This article started out as research for my betting against Bitcoin on the stock market. This isn't financial advice. As a matter of fact, I encourage all readers you to not buy or short crypto, through any market or derivative. Use your money for productive uses. Here's a TL;DR:
The current parabolic price increase in Bitcoin is a bubble that has started popping.
A stablecoin called Tether is either one of the largest frauds or money laundering operation in history, and is providing most of the liquidity in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Proof of concept: No argument here, but now that the market cap of cryptocurrencies is closing in on a $700B, this seems moot.
Cheap Payment Network: Nonsense, since BTC transactions are currently >$10 and this worsens the more people use it.
Anonymous Darknet Currency: I'd have said "no argument here", but apparently it's surprisingly easy to trace BTC nowadays. However, crypto ecosystem as a whole seems to do a decent job at laundering money as we'll see later.
Reserve Currency for Crypto: Since a reserve currency should be useful as a means of exchange, and I wrote several thousand words on how BTC is not that, my position is pretty clear. Also, the fact that a cryptocurrency indexed to the US dollar has trounced BTC as the main means of exchange in the crypto ecosystem speaks for itself.
Programmable Shared Database: You know what's programmable, shared and a database? The database we use at work. Just learn to implement access control lists on your SQL server.
Uncorrelated Financial Asset: Given BTC crashed just like the rest of the market when COVID showed up, this doesn't hold up
The stupidest version of the "uncorrelated asset" argument I hear is "Bitcoin is a great hedge for inflation!" You know what's a good "hedge for inflation"? Literally anything. The definition of inflation is "the price of money". If the price of money goes down (inflation) then everything else has a positive return by comparison. People who say "bitcoin is a good hedge for inflation" shouldn't be trusted to manage their own money, let alone give financial advice to anyone.
Censorship Resistant e-Gold: This is a roundabout way of saying "BTC is a store of value"! Which, again, can only be said by people who've never read the definition of "store of value" in a textbook.
I already went into detail into this, but BTC is a terrible store of value because it's volatile. Assets that can lose 20% of value overnight don't "store value". BTC is a "vehicle for speculation". The only way price is sustained for BTC is that you can find some other idiot to sell it to. Just as a reminder, 50% of Gold is used for things that aren't speculation, like Jewelry, so you'll never have to worry finding a seller there. Here are some real uses for bitcoin:
Gambling is fun. You buy BTC, the price might go up! Or down! This is exciting.
Hackers, money launderers and other criminals certainly find cryptocurrencies useful.
Reminder: BTC is an ecological scourge The current cost to mine a BTC is around $8000 in electricity. This electricity mostly comes from subsidized coal in China. And given the current amount of BTC generated each day, we're using about equivalent to the electricity from all of Belgium, largely in coal, to keep this going. I don't mind wasting time on intellectual curiosities, but destroying our planet for glorified gambling is not something I'm happy about. I want cryptocurrencies to go away entirely on this basis, philosophically.
Current BTC prices are a bubble
Before we go into tether, reminder that at the time of writing, the plot of BTC price against the S&P500 looks like this BTC price has increased by ~800% since March. Still, no one uses it for anything useful since the last bubble in 2017, or the other one before that in 2013. This is another bubble however you put it. BTC is not "new technology" 10 years the internet became popular, Google and Amazon already existed. We're 8 years after the popular emergence of deep learning and it has already revolutionized machine translation, computer vision and natural language processing in general. You could argue that deep learning and the internet existed before their emergence, but so did cryptocurrencies. Look up b-money and hashcash for instance. Bitcoin has existed since 2008 and emerged in popularity around the same time as deep learning did, yet we're still to find actual uses for it except speculation and criminal uses. It's a solution waiting for a problem. Institutional investors are also idiots The narrative this time is that "institutional investors" are buying into BTC. This doesn't mean it's not a bubble. Many of the institutions were buying through Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Rather, many of them were chasing the premium over net asset value that hovered around 20%. Basically, lock money in GBTC for 6 months, cash out and collect the premium as profit. Of course, this little Ponzi couldn't last forever and the premium seems to be evaporating now. Similarly, totally-not-a-bitcoin-ETF-wearing-a-software-company-skinsuit Microstrategy (MSTR) trades at a massive premium over fundamentals. There will always be traders chasing bonuses from numbers going up, regardless what is making the number going up. The same "institutional investors" were buying obviously terrible CDOs in the run-up to 2008.
Tether is lunacy
Tether is a cryptocurrency whose exchange rate is supposed to be pegged to the US Dollar. Initially this was done by having 1-to-1 US Dollar reserves for each tether issued. Then they got scammed by their money launderer, losing some $800M, which made them insolvent. Anyway, now tether maintains their reserves are whatever they want them to be and they haven't gotten audited since 2017. You know, normal stuff. There's a problem to backing your USD-pegged security with something that isn't US Dollars. Namely, if the price of the thing you're backing your US Dollars against goes down, you're now insolvent. If you were backing $10B in tether with $10B of bitcoin, then the bitcoin drops by half, you're insolvent by $5B. And then this spotlessly clean company they somehow added $20B to their balance sheet in the second half of 2020 Reminder: one side of that balance sheet is currently floating around the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Cryptocurrency traders own it as an asset and sell it to others. The other half of the balance sheet is whatever tether wants. There are only two possibilities that explain tether's growth:
It could also be a happy mix of both. One particularly interesting date is 30/8/2020, where tether added $3B to its balance sheet overnight. This is interesting because it predates the subsequent movement in bitcoin price and large movements in other cryptocurrencies. The story from tether and tether's bank's CEO is that this money largely comes from foreign nationals through an OTC desk which implies the transaction goes as following:
That OTC desk converts the money to USD and sends it to tether's correspondent US bank. The OTC desk gives tether to the foreign national.
Wait tether has a correspondent US bank?
Oh, I forgot to mention, no bank wants tether as a customer because they obviously break KYC/AML compliance. So tether first boughtinvested in a bank called Noble which then lost its relationship with Wells-Fargo when they realized tether were lying to them about AML. Poor tether lost its legal access to USD. Tether has been banking in the Bahamas with a bank called Deltec since. First they had a money launderer called Crypto Capital Corp to send funds to customers, who stole the $800M from them and subsequently went to jail. But worry not! Tether found a way to get banked in USD afterwards. Curious coincidence, an executive at Deltec was randomly blogging about buying small US community banks in 2018. You know, that thing money launderers do. So tether's story is that in 2020, they took in roughly twenty billion USD of shady foreign money into the small community US bank their deltec bankers bought. These transactions are necessarily breaking KYC/AML. The foreign parties to those transactions wouldn't take such a rickety route to convert billions into cryptocurrencies if they weren't laughed out of the room in serious banks. But of course, Deltec will say it did KYC on tether. Really solid KYC, clearly, since they're the last bank on earth taking tether's business. Tether says they do KYC on their customers (the large OTC desks). And I'm sure the OTC desks would be shocked, shocked if the cash money they get in Russia and China turns out to be dirty. So everyone can pass the buck of responsibility down the road and claim "We do KYC on our customers". Sure you do, tether. If you did such great KYC, you wouldn't have such problems finding banking relationships. I mean when even HSBC is not doing business with you you're apparently more obviously moving criminal money than fucking drug cartels. And, according to tether's people, this money is what's backing tether's reserves. Money that will get frozen the instant a prosecutor even looks at it. Reminder: the above is the charitable, positive case for tether. The less charitable case is that they took crayons and added zeros to their balance sheet, and that there's a couple billions waiting to burn a hole in the crypto ecosystem. Anyway, the $25B garbage fire that is tether will make a great book/netflix series at some point and their hilariously stupid CTO going on podcasts while flinching on questions about how BTC ended up on their balance sheet will be a fun part of it. But I'm not here to write a book, I'm here to make money by shorting all of this. For my purposes, even in the positive case tether is a ticking time bomb waiting to burn a hole in the crypto ecosystem, because...
KYC and AML are coming for cryptocurrencies
If you listen to "crypto news", all incoming crypto regulation is just great, because that means crypto is becoming legit. However, companies investing in crypto are very angry about them. This is because crypto transactions break the FinCEN travel rule, where KYC information should "travel" along transactions, to prevent money laundering obfuscation schemes. Of course, according to the crypto industry this is "stifling innovation". A more reasonable take is that by being leaving the crypto industry outside normal financial regulations, we're enabling a "race to the bottom". As we saw with shadow banks in the 2000-2007 era this leads to "creative banking". I don't want my bankers to be creative, I want them to be solvent.
Tether's effect on the crypto ecosystem
When tether implodes, it's taking most of the crypto industry along for a fun ride. Tether can implode in one of a few ways:
A BTC price crash triggers it. If
Regulators decide they've had enough of AML avoidance and regulate them.
The NYAG investigation, which is waiting for an update in a few weeks, finds something and shuts them out.
Let's assume tether falls to $0 for simplicity. The analysis is the same directionally if tether significantly "breaks the buck". This doesn't happen instantly, but it happens quickly. The peg breaks, and most people holding tether will try to sell it for other crypto (BTC, ETH, etc.). This puts downward pressure on the price of tether, incentivizing even more people to "pass the buck". Automated inter-exchange arbitrage bots might try to exploit emerging gaps in bid-ask spreads, only to end up with worthless tether instead, as their operators rush to pull the plug. Then, we have a small village of cryptocurrency enthusiasts being out some $24B. With the trading bots turned off and the trading lubricant (a dollar pegged asset) gone, the bid-ask spreads blow up. You get a predictable flight to safety -- that is, to real money. This puts downward pressure on BTC. While all of this is happening, there are all sorts of fun second-order effects happen. A lot of DeFi derivative products are priced in cryptocurrencies, so having normally stable prices shuffle around (eg. USDC price moving above $1 in a flight to safety) triggers a tsunami of margin calls. Some exchanges might insolvent (they're the ones redeeming tether for USD after all).
If BTC price drops below $8000, fun things happen
Currently, the price to mine a BTC is roughly $8000. Most of the mining comes from huge mining farms using subsidized coal in China, and mining costs more the more hardware there is to mine it. Since the price of BTC hasn't substantially dropped below cost to mine we're in for a fun experiment if the price drops below this threshold. Most of these farms should turn off so that the price to mine comes back to breakeven in a case of prisoner's dilemma. But if too much hardware turns off, this leaves mining hardware idle and the door becomes wide open to a 51% attack. It's not clear at what price below breakeven cost to mine a 51% attack becomes a serious threat, but once this threshold is crossed, we're in the "irreparable harm to BTC" risk zone. And for a person like me, who just wants to see crypto disappear forever this is very exciting. Maybe those mining farms could be replaced with nice forests soaking up all the carbon they emitted for posterity. One can hope.
How do I bet against all of this?
Microstrategy (MSTR) is, at this point, a bitcoin ETF wearing the skinsuit of a dying software company. Michael Saylor, MSTR's CEO, is quite the character. I wrote a lot about his lack understanding of what a currency is, but it's on another level to look at the early stages of a bubble pop and decide this is a good time to buy $10M more of the stuff, as seen here However, this bubble is tame by Michael's standards. Look at the historical stock of his company What's happening on the left is that Saylor pumped the numbers with accounting fraud then the SEC took issue with the fake numbers. The stock dropped 90% practically overnight. Their accountants, PWC, paid $51M in fines. Saylor and friends paid fines, partly with company stock. You could also short GBTC, but when Mr. Saylor provides you with an options market instead, why not use it? Shorting on crypto exchanges that might become insolvent in the very event you want to happen with this bet is a bad idea, on the other hand.
Mike can't cash out
The bitcoin market is illiquid and leveraged when it comes to real money coming in and leaving the ecosystem. Buys in the $10M-$100M seemingly move the price of BTC by upwards of $1000 in the last weeks. This means hundreds of millions of real money means tens of billions in movement in BTC market capitalization. Now imagine what cashing $1.1B of BTC into real money would mean for the price. And this is purely in market terms, before the PR damage from bitcoin's demigod abandoning ship would have second-order effects. Saylor has painted himself into a corner. Even if he wanted to cash out, he can't.
MSTR fundamentals: Why it should be valued below $10
In early 2020, MSTR was a slowly dying business. The EBITDA has been rapidly evaporating in the last 5 years At that point, MSTR a stock price of $115 meaning a market cap of $1.1B. This included some $560M of cash they were sitting on. I presume the remaining $550M was an implicit sales premium for the inevitable private equity firm investors expected was going to relieve them of this stock and make the business profitable again. Of course, they didn't sell. Instead, they took the $560m they were sitting on and bought $400m of BTC at prices $11k and $13k in late summer 2020. Then, in early December, they took on $600m of debt to buy BTC with at $23k. They also bought $10m more in January at a price of $30.5k. At this point, we can mostly value MSTR like a trust.
Price the underlying software business as being worth $600M, as the market did before the bitcoin nonsense. If BTC went to $0, this is what we'd value it at, and the MSTR stock should be around $65.
But wait! MSTR took on $650M in debt in December. Their actual value with a BTC priced at $0 should be much, much lower than $65 depending on how you value the debt. You could make an argument it should be in the single digits.
They hold 70,784 BTC. At current prices ($32,000) this is worth roughly $2.2B. With the current market cap of MSTR ($577 stock price), this means MSTR is currently priced at an eye watering $3B premium over fundamental value.
GBTC's 20% premium-to-NAV is a joke compared to the MSTR premium.
Trump and Republicans launch unprecedented efforts to sabotage Biden's administration
Not only did President Trump’s administration delay the transition, his administration and Congressional Republicans have launched efforts to sabotage the economy, light foreign policy fires, and cement harmful regulations before Biden takes office. Note: This list is not exhaustive. Particularly regarding potential policy changes, it is difficult to predict which ones the White House is going to prioritize. For instance, there are 14 policy changes the White House is actively reviewing to finalize and there are 17 rule changes that have been put forward for consideration.
Economy
Senate Republicans have failed to prioritize legislation to alleviate the suffering of unemployed Americans and mitigate the fiscal crises facing state and local governments. Most recently, on Tuesday Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejected a proposed bipartisan coronavirus stimulus package worth $908 billion, saying he only supports up to $500 billion in new aid spending. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is putting $455 billion in unspent Cares Act funding into the agency’s General Fund - an account that the Biden administration’s Treasury Secretary will not be able to access without authorization from Congress. While the move may not be upheld as legal, it will certainly delay the Biden administration from accessing funds to assist in pandemic recovery.
“Secretary Mnuchin is engaged in economic sabotage, and trying to tie the Biden administration’s hands,” Democratic Senator Ron Wyden said in a statement after Bloomberg reported on the Treasury’s plans.
The Fed said in response that it “would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.” Senate Republicans are attempting to stymie the incoming administration by installing Trump’s picks to the Federal Reserve. Two weeks ago, McConnell tried to advance controversial nominee Judy Shelton but failed to gain enough votes, with both Sens. Grassley and Scott in quarantine for the coronavirus. It is possible for McConnell to bring her up for another vote. Meanwhile, while not as controversial, later this week the Senate will vote on a second Trump nominee to the Fed: Christopher Waller. If both are confirmed, Trump will have chosen six of the seven sitting governors.
Labor
In response to an executive order Trump signed in October, the Office of Management and Budget has identified 88% of its workforce as eligible to lose key job protections. The order allows employees “in confidential, policy-determining, policy-making or policy-advocating positions” to be moved into a classification called Schedule F. Once re-classified, these employees can be dismissed at will. Civil service experts and union leaders estimate that anywhere from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of federal employees can be stripped of job protections under the new order.
The Office of Personnel Management is also rushing to shuffle many of its own roughly 3,500 employees into the new category, a senior administration official said. Other agencies are pulling together lists of policy roles, too — but the budget and personnel offices volunteered to be test cases for the controversial policy, this official said…
On the flip side, the order would also allow the Trump administration to place political appointees into career positions, bypassing the merit-based system typically required in the hiring process. “Once they are in Schedule F, former political appointees have a more permanent status than they have today. So Schedule F is a huge gift to them.”
House Democrats are pressing congressional appropriators to block the order in the next spending bill they need to pass by mid-December to keep the government funded.
Republicans on the Senate Appropriations Committee are advocating an across-the-board pay freeze for civilian federal workers in 2021. In their draft government funding bill, the GOP did away with Trump’s proposed 1% pay increase. A group of House Democrats led by Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) is pushing for a 3% increase in federal civilian pay.
Foreign policy
The White House fired Christopher Maier, the head of the Pentagon’s Defeat ISIS Task Force, and disbanded the office. A Defense Dept. statement said his duties would be transferred to offices led by Ezra Cohen-Watnick and Anthony Tata, two of the Trump loyalists installed in a recent purge of top Defense officials. The dissolution of Maier’s team came as they were answering “dozens of questions” from the Biden administration regarding terrorist threats and counterterrorism work.
...the move by the newly promoted Pentagon leadership to eliminate that central hub will almost certainly slow the flow of counterterrorism information to Biden transition aides in the coming weeks, several officials said.
At the end of last month, Iran's top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was killed in an alleged assassination that the country's foreign minister linked to Israel. Though no official U.S. participation has been confirmed, Trump almost immediately retweeted a statement saying the killing was a “psychological and professional blow for Iran.” The attack will likely complicate Biden’s effort to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, which he has previously pledged to do.
“The Trump administration’s goal seems plain,” said Robert Malley, who leads the International Crisis Group and was a negotiator of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The administration’s plan, he said, was “to take advantage of the time remaining before it heads to the exits to solidify its legacy and make it all the more difficult for its successor to resume diplomacy with Iran and rejoin the nuclear deal.”
Iran has promised retaliation and U.S. officials are quietly monitoring intelligence, trying not to inflame an already tense situation. Just days before the assassination, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had visited Israel and other Gulf countries to discuss Iran. 11 days prior, it was reported that Trump asked advisors for options “to take action against Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks.”
After Mr. Pompeo and General Milley described the potential risks of military escalation, officials left the meeting believing a missile attack inside Iran was off the table… Trump might still be looking at ways to strike Iranian assets and allies, including militias in Iraq, officials said.
Furthermore, Israel Defense Forces have reportedly been told to prepare for the possibility the Trump will direct a military strike against Iran before leaving office. The White House-led purge of Defense Department officials has only added to worries of rash action by Trump. Before his firing, Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned that withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and Iraq will put service members’ lives at risk, alienate allies, and erode credibility. Nevertheless, Trump replaced Esper and announced 2,500 troops will leave by January, just days before Biden’s inauguration, leaving another 2,000 or so U.S. forces in place. The Trump administration is seeking to designate the Houthis, a Yemen militia group, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Experts have panned the idea, saying it will only disrupt international aid and impede U.N. peace efforts. Harsh actions against the Houthis will also risk driving the faction further into Iran’s arms, cementing divisions in the region that Biden will have to work hard to neutralize.
“If this is rushed through, we might see trade and financial flows dry up across Yemen, the diplomatic process blown up and the Houthis deciding they need to repay the favor by increasing the tempo of attacks into Saudi Arabia while turning to Iran for more support,” said Peter Salisbury, senior analyst for Yemen at the International Crisis Group.
Related: The Trump administration is pushing to finalize a massive weapons sale to the United Arab Emirates before Biden’s inauguration, increasing the instability in the Middle East. The deal is already facing bipartisan opposition in Congress and from numerous human rights groups. Trump is reportedly planning to take actions to lock its hardline China policies in place and “box in the Biden administration.” This includes imposing additional sanctions and trade restrictions with Chinese companies and government officials, as well as moving China hawks into senior roles in U.S. government. Shortly after the election, Secretary State Mike Pompeo embarked on a 10-day, seven-country trip in which he antagonized the leaders of France, Turkey, and Palestine. Bloomberg described it as a trip “calculated to offend” and full of “pronouncements likely to make Biden’s life difficult.” In Paris, he prioritized meeting far-right French media before seeing government officials. In Turkey, Pompeo demanded government officials come to him in Istanbul instead of meeting respectively at the capital of Ankara. In the Israel-occupied West Bank, he visited a pro-settlement winery occupying land taken from Palestinian families.
The biggest announcement of Pompeo’s trip was that the U.S. will allow goods produced in Israeli settlements to carry a “Made in Israel” label. Moves like that will be difficult for Biden to undo, subjecting him to criticism from Republicans running for president in 2024 -- perhaps including Pompeo -- that he’s weak in his support of Israel.
The U.S. officially withdrew from the Treaty on Open Skies, a decades-old pact meant to reduce chances of open conflict with Russia by allowing unarmed reconnaissance flights over each other’s territories. Significantly, Trump ordered not just withdrawal from the treaty but also the disposal of the airplanes that are used to maintain the current mutual surveillance regime.
An American withdrawal from the Open Skies treaty would give Putin more leeway to make forays into areas like eastern Ukraine, where he'd love to keep his actions concealed from western scrutiny… By withdrawing from the Open Skies treaty, the United States would fulfill Putin's goals by effectively "driving another wedge into the NATO alliance," [Kingston Reif, director for Disarmament and Threat Reduction Policy at the Arms Control Association] says.
Environment
The Trump administration is rushing to complete regulatory actions on energy and the environment, hoping to lock in place harmful policies before Biden’s inauguration. If Republicans maintain control of the Senate, it will be difficult to repeal many of the last-minute rules under the Congressional Review Act. Some of these actions include:
Finalizing the “Strengthening Transparency in Regulatory Science” proposal, which would require that scientists disclose all of their raw data, including confidential medical records, before the agency could consider an academic study’s conclusions. The measure would make it more difficult to enact new clean air and water rules because many studies detailing the links between pollution and disease rely on personal health information gathered under confidentiality agreements.
Finalizing a rule to keep in place a 2012 standard on industrial soot pollution despite the research from the E.P.A.’s own scientists, who wrote last year that the existing rule contributes to about 45,000 deaths per year from respiratory diseases, and that tightening it could save about 10,000 of those lives.
Career E.P.A. employees are working to stymie Trump’s deregulation, hoping to hold the agency together until Biden’s inauguration. The Trump administration has launched the process to sell oil rights in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, raising the prospect that a lease sale might happen just days before Biden's inauguration. The coastal plain region, where land could be auctioned, is considered some of the country’s last pristine wilderness, containing dozens of polar bear dens, essential migratory bird habitat, and caribou calving grounds held sacred to the Gwich’in people.
Update: As I published this post, news broke that the sale has been scheduled for Jan. 6.
Luckily, there is a potential path for Biden to reverse the sales:
If sales do occur before Biden takes office, it would be challenging – but not impossible – for Biden to walk back leases issued. “Even if leases are issued by the Trump administration, the Biden administration could seek to withdraw the leases if it concludes they were unlawfully issued or pose too great a threat to the environment,” Grafe said.
Last month, the Trump administration finalized new National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) rules that would make it easier to cut down trees and build new roads without having to engage local communities in the process. The rule change creates oversight loopholes across the 193 million-acre national forest system, amounting to a broad “permission slip” for logging and development without taking environmental harms into account. The Trump administration is rushing to sell the rights to a sacred Apache Indigenous area outside of Phoenix, Arizona, to a mining company this month, a full year ahead of schedule. Democratic Arizona representative Raúl Grijalva and Senator Bernie Sanders have introduced a bill calling for the land transfer to be repealed. “If the land exchange happens, it will be difficult to roll back,” Grijalva told the Guardian. The Bureau of Land Management is poised to approve a four-lane highway through protected wildlife habitat and public lands in Utah, ignoring vocal opposition from local conservation groups. The road would cut through the Red Cliffs Desert Reserve, critical habitat for the threatened Mojave desert tortoise. Conservation groups say BLM did not seriously consider alternative, less-damaging routes. The Trump administration moved forward on gutting a longstanding federal protection for the nation's birds, over objections from former federal officials and many scientists that billions more birds will likely perish as a result. The change could be made official within 30 days.
The wildlife service acknowledged in its findings that the rollback would have a “negative” effect on the many bird species covered by the 1918 Migratory Bird Treaty Act, which range from hawks and eagles to seabirds, storks, songbirds and sparrows.
Last month, Michael Kuperberg was removed from his job leading the program that produces the National Climate Assessment; he is likely to be replaced with a climate change denier. Appointing a climate change skeptic to the position would facilitate the contracting of researchers who reject climate science, keeping them in place after Biden takes office in January.
Miscellaneous
Senate Republicans are rushing to confirm Trump's nominee to the Federal Communications Commission in order to create a 2-2 deadlock for the Biden FCC. On Wednesday, the Senate Commerce Committee voted to advance the nomination of Nathan Simington, a Republican in favor of greater government oversight of speech on the internet. Simington is viewed as a friend to the Trump administration’s desire to make changes to Section 230. The Justice Department has rushed to expand possible execution methods to include electrocution and death by firing squad as they expedite a slew of scheduled executions in the final days of the Trump administration. The proposed rule cleared White House review on Nov. 6, according to the report, so it could be finalized any day.
...three inmates would be executed in the weeks leading up to President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, bringing the total number of inmates scheduled to die during the lame duck session to six.
Trump is considering an executive action to target birthright citizenship in his final weeks in office. According to The Hill, “The administration is aware the order would be promptly challenged in court, but officials would hope to get a ruling on whether birthright citizenship is protected under the 14th Amendment…” The Trump administration is also racing to make it harder for skilled foreign workers to gain visas, narrowing the definition of a “specialty occupation” eligible for a skilled-worker visa under the H-1B program. A second fast-track regulation would raise the wages that employers must pay to demonstrate foreign workers will not displace Americans in the same occupation and geographic area.
JANUARY UPDATE: The Most Important Turning Twenty-One Ever!
I have never been so excited to turn twenty-one again; 2021 that is! "There is an end to everything, to good things as well." The proverb originated around 1374. The verbiage has since been reconfigured and is more commonly known now as, "All good things must come to an end." Oddly enough, the proverb spawned little more than twenty years after approximately twenty-five million humans succumbed to the "Black Death." 2041 Proverb Prediction "Six feet mother-fucker!" There is an end to everything, which means bad things end as well. In one-hundred years, children will still have twenty year old textbooks, and they detail the unpleasantness 2020 bestowed upon humanity. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID19) pandemic drastically impacted, and devastated the entire globe. The United State of America (USA) also ceased this opportunity, in true USA fashion, to one-up other countries. World Series of Poker (Texas Holdem) Flop Russia: Call! China: I will raise one Global Pandemic. USA: Call! Russia: Call! Turn Russia: Call! China: Call! USA: I will raise some Political Consternation. Russia: Call! China: Call! River Russia: Call! China: Call! USA: I would like to raise some Police Brutality, Racial Inequality, Rioting, Looting, and Bombing In Nashville, Tennessee. Russia: Fold. China: I don't think we have a Nashville. Call! Dear 2020, I mean this with all sincerity; Go Fuck Yourself! What a topsy-turvey year 2020 has been. I vividly recall my Mother being disappointed with me during my teenage years. The one thing that irritated my Mother the most was me remaining in bed after noon. That very same action in 2020 is your commitment to the preservation of humanity. Lazy sleepers, like Kelly, are finally doing their part to save the world. Dear Reader, have you ever "coughed" to muffle a fart? I have. Now, I try to not-shit-my-pants when I forcefully thrust a fart out my balloon-knot in attempt to obscure a cough. If that's not "topsy-turvey" then I don't know what is. Just last night, I found out that two of my closest friends tested positive for COVID19. Yup, they are both fucking zombies. They have both lost their sense of smell, and taste. They were both clearly miserable, and I offered them my sincerest thoughts and prayers. Then Sloppy took the wheel and went hunting for laughs. Ring. Ring. Ring Mark: Hello! Sloppy: How you feeling buddy? Mark: Not good. Not good at all brother. I feel like a freight train hit me. I can't smell anything, and I lost my sense of taste. I can't even walk up the stairs. Sloppy: How is the rest of the family? Mark: Casey has the Rona too? Sloppy: That's horrible man. I am really sorry to hear this. Look at the bright side though. Mark: (Laughing) The bright side? I am fucking dying here, and you are telling me to "look at the bright side?" Sloppy: Yeah!?! Dude, you can totally ask Casey to do Ass-To-Mouth (ATM) now. This COVID thing may be a blessing in disguise. She won't taste a thing! Mark: (Cough-Laughing Hysterically) I don't know if she'd go for that buddy. Sloppy: Not unless you reciprocate. Tell her you're gonna tongue-punch her fart-box first! Lube that puppy up. Mark: (More Hysterical Cough-Laughing) Casey, NICKNAME has to ask you something. Casey: (Happy) Hey NICKNAME. What do you need to ask me? Mark: Look. Mark may, or may not be interested in an Ass-To-Mouth session, and your lack of taste will aid in this effort. Casey: (Laughing) Gross. No! NO, NO, NO. Sloppy: Mark said he'd tongue-punch your fart-box first though! Casey: (Cough Laughing) FART-BOX?!? (Laughing) Oh! Marky, you're gonna pleasure my fart-box? Mark: (Background) Never said that! Dear Reader, I am not saying you have to lick a butthole when life gives you lemons! What's the harm though, especially if you cannot taste the lemons, or wrinkle-grommet? Nail Salons, Hair Salons, and Waxing Salons have since been closed, and it is starting to get hairy out there. Literally, it's hairy out there, and I think the vagina-raptor next door feeds of the hairy chaos. Furthermore, I don't recall hearing any sirens, but Category-Five Human-Tornadoes hit every grocery store in my immediate area. I have personally witnessed geriatric humans physically squabble over toilet paper. Both Old Man River's probably believe Twitter to be a bird watching site, but they knew how to swing canes. Honestly, I was disappointed the fight was broken up, but I was more disappointed nobody was fighting over Depends. Dear Reader, the Moderators and I are taking 2021 to the extreme. We are going to make our own rules this year. The "Awareness Month" website I utilize is lacking for January. My fellow Moderators were on point with their suggestion. January 1ST, 2021 is National Hangover Day. Dear Readers, one "National Hangover Day" is not going to erase the misery that 2020 brought us. My fellow Moderators decided to extend "National Hangover Day" to "National Hangover Month!" I have never felt prouder of my fellow Moderators. Open Letter Dear Liver and Kidneys, I am coming for you! Cheers, FUckers Everywhere Dear Readers, I again, would like to say thank you for subscribing to FUckery. I am still baffled with the original growth. FUckery reached one-thousand FUckers in six days, and we have been rock-steady since then. Frankly, I have no ambition of transitioning into a "Super Sub" with millions of subscribers. It is my personal belief that the majority of FUckers are committed, and continually contribute to FUckery. FUckery is more of a living room, and less mall-like, and I enjoy it. I have little to offer than a humble thanks, but I do sincerely appreciate the contributions. There is typically a more serious note in the Monthly Post, and I will not forgo that nearly five month tradition. The past year (Almost There) was anything but pleasurable. I will forgo talking about struggling businesses, or the fiscal burden. They are very well known. I would like to take a moment to talk about social interaction. Generally speaking, the majority of us are very social creatures. This includes the strange introverts such as myself. However, this lack of human interaction is noticeable. I have not traveled much lately. I was never at odds when a deployment interrupted my holiday plans. This past year was different. I was anxious and excited to bond with friends and family during the holidays, but that never came to fruition. However, I am not as disappointed as I imagined. I have found a very close circle of internet strangers. Thank you for being a friend and a confidant (Golden Girls.) Please be cognizant of these interactions. I know they have helped me out tremendously, and I know that I have done my best to help others out. I would like to continue that tradition this month. No, I am not talking about pushing Sally into the ocean so she is properly "fucked" either. I am asking that you continue to be vigilant regarding our fellow FUckers. I hate it, and it is certainly cliche, but, "If you see something, say something." Believe it or not, Ken and I were friends last year. Maybe not friends, but we were at least cordial with each other. There is only one thing Ken ever said that made me laugh, and I think it is appropriate that I share it with you now. I think it is important to start our next twenty-first Birthday with at least a slight chuckle. Ken: Karen is all pissed off today. Sloppy: That sucks. Why is she angry though? Ken: She had a poor experience on the bus. Sloppy: Aren't any experience on public transportation poor? Ken: I suppose, but this time it was a bit different. Sloppy: Really? What happened? Ken: She was on her way to an appointment to have her mustache and back hair waxed off when the bus driver said, "That's the ugliest baby I have ever seen." Sloppy: He actually said that? Ken: That's what she tells me. Sloppy: That's horrible. Ken: But wait! It gets worse. Sloppy: Not possible. Ken: She then sits down, and tells the guy next to her that the bus driver insulted her. The guy said it would be best if she addressed this issue before she had another Herpes flareup. Sloppy: So what happened? Ken: She got up to go address the issue with the bus driver, and the man sitting beside her said, "Go on, I will hold your monkey for you." Sloppy: Did he hold the monkey? Ken Storms Away Yes Dear Reader, you've got me again. That was a joke. I don't think Karen rides the bus, and we both know Ken and I were never friends. I refuse to back-down on the other important information such as, but not limited to back hair, Herpes, or having ugly children. I also realize I have been lacking on recognizing FUckers. Besides drinking more alcohol, my other New Year's resolution will be to get my shit together, and do some Moderating. I still need to recognize people for November, and December as well. I will get there eventually though. Here's to the fantastic start to a wonderful New Year. Be safe, and be blessed. The garage is always open should anyone want to drink beer, and watch me totally not-fuck with my neighbors. Be forewarned though! I stopped drinking beer for good. I now only drink beer for evil, and that evilness will be directed at the assholes next door. Happy 2021 Cheers, Sloppy
It WAS aliens, and I think I know where they came from
Hi folks. When I started my research into these related phenomena, I was open to the possibility of ET visitation but was opposed to the Ancient Aliens Theory. Our group's research quickly convinced me that (a) high technologies were deployed anciently on Earth, and (b) they were brought here by someone else. Eventually, I learned where they came from. Here’s my recent email (with some edits to keep certain details secret for now) to Dr. Linda Elkins-Tanton, Principal Investigator of NASA’s impending mission to asteroid 16 Psyche, an anomalous metallic object in the so-called Asteroid Belt that seems to be the core of a destroyed planet. That mission is scheduled to launch in 2023, and to arrive there in 2026, hopefully around the time Movie 3 of the film version of my epic trilogy may come out. This message explains a discovery of stupendous importance we have brewing, which I predict, once confirmed, will be hailed as the most important discovery in human history--and aptly so, since in my view it reveals what engendered that history. Now, to be clear, Lindy did NOT say that she agrees with my assertion that Psyche is in fact exactly what it seems to be. Indeed, a main reason I contacted her was simply to confirm that NASA has no idea about this very real possibility, which her responses indicated they do not. But they do now, as will those of you who care to read this! How I arrived at this working hypothesis is detailed in my preliminary ebook edition of The Flood 1: Escape from Atlantis, now available at The Flood 1: Escape from Atlantis: Clevenger, John R.: 9798566415000: Amazon.com: Books. “Based in part on what I learned from pureblood Inca descendants, Psyche is not just another asteroid; it’s the core of the former fifth planet from the sun, called (we think) ‘Tiamat.’ The other objects in the Asteroid Belt are not leftover rubble of the early Solar System; they’re remnants of Tiamat. “The Inca descendants told me that their people, the ancient Aryans, were ‘servants of the Serpent Gods,’ a humanoid species with exceptionally long crania who had come to Earth from Tiamat. I call them ‘natural-born longheads,’ to distinguish them from their hybridized servants, who artificially deformed their children’s skulls in imitation of their masters. They said that Tiamat was a watery world that had been destroyed by the same celestial invader that would later cause the biblical Flood, as recreated in my novel/films. We’ve examined natural-born longhead skulls, which have seemingly nonhuman features. They were preeminent mariners who were clearly associated with ancient megaliths globally, including the pyramids in Egypt and such as Sacsayhuaman in Peru. Their DNA is linked with certain Middle Eastern populations, particularly in Iran, which very name derives from the word ‘Aryan.’ “Hence, we believe that there was some sort of genetic intermixing between Tiamatians and early humans. Most basically, the Tiamatians had red hair; so did the ancient Aryans. At the farthest extreme, it’s even possible that Homo sapiens sapiens was seeded by these aliens from a destroyed world within our solar system. If this central premise underlying my work can be proven, that would constitute a discovery of stupendous importance. We think that this occurred originally around the site of the Arkaim temple in central Russia, where a longhead skeleton was recently recovered, and that the ancient redheaded giants (such as the biblical Goliath) were also hybridized progeny of Tiamatians. We have some giant bones, and permission to dig for others at a South American site, where we’ve been offered land, on which we hope to build a research base. “There’s much more to this, to include also our theories on Tiamatian super-technologies, principally pyramid power, which increased agricultural yields, and a method for generating true antigravity fields, with which the megaliths were erected, and which I believe was a vestige of an ancient alien star-jump technology. I know some of this sounds nuts, but you should see the evidence we’ve assembled. Most of this is probably at least roughly correct; and some of it could be enormously consequential. People at NASA should be aware of these theories, and the strong evidentiary indications supporting them. And future missions to the Asteroid Belt (perhaps most aptly by the Indian Space Research Organization, since south Asian Indians are Aryans) should probably take into account the possibility of finding relics in all that rubble--including, for example, pieces of pyramids.”
"And she was floating - floating in eternity, floating in nothingness, floating in the nakedness of a tapestry laid bare. She reached out to the magnificent flame, flickering and crackling, and brushed her fingers against its delicious glow. Yet there was no warmth or burn, but only the stillness of Nil."
Chasing the Sun
Across the universe, trillions of stars blaze gloriously and majestically, dispersing scattered rays of light and other forms of radiation invisible to the mortal eye into the boundless void - rays which would shoot off into the uncharted realms of space for eternity. Only a tiny fraction of these reach the surfaces of asteroids and space debris, not to mention that which hits planets such as our own. Within a star's inferno thrums its beating heart, its core, where it is fueled by an unfathomable volume of hydrogen. Therein lies what keeps a star, and thus the universe, alive - nuclear fusion. Each second, trillions upon trillions of hydrogen atoms combine due to the incredible heat of the star to form helium. Then, eventually, as the star ages, heavier and heavier elements are forged - carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and all the other elements up to iron. As less and less energy is provided through these heavier reactions compared to the input required, the star's gravity eventually overcomes the force exerted by fusion, resulting in a total collapse - but not before, in some cases, a defiant last act: a supernova, an explosion so magnificent and powerful it could rival the Sun in broad daylight even from hundreds or thousands of lightyears away. In the end, supernova or not, the star leaves behind an obituary, a mark that it once existed - whether it be a slowly decaying and fading dwarf star, an immensely dense neutron star, an all-consuming black hole, or dust and debris which will one day reform into another star. Ever since humanity first discovered the wondrous properties of atomic fusion and the inner machinations of stars, many have wondered whether it would be possible to not only replicate the reactions which fuel a star but to harness it for the sake of generating electricity. If it were possible, such a source of power - fusion power - would be a truly revolutionary breakthrough for not only scientific advancement and for the electrical grids of Earth, but for humanity in general. In practical terms, the discovery of cheap fusion power has the ability to completely change our understanding of the universe and its functions should it be found in certain ways. Yet, to this day, commercial fusion energy remains a matter for science fiction novellas and the pipedreams of underfunded research teams. It has been a decade since the last true breakthrough in the field, and what little spark of political will once existed for investment into fusion has been extinguished by more "practical" pursuits and sources of power - safer fission power and more efficient renewables, to name some. Despite this, the dream of fusion continues to burn on just as it does in our own natural source of light and heat, the Sun.
The Fact of the Matter
Fusion power generation is a complex and often confusing subject, with many different theories and models. For the sake of this post, we will focus on the tokamak, one of the leading types of fusion reactors which has been successful in the past - in fact, the title of reactor which has most closely approached scientific breakeven (a concept explained below) is held by a tokamak known as the Joint European Torus. The core concept behind practically all forms of nuclear fusion is the production of a plasma in which fusion reactions can take place. This plasma has to both be at an extremely high temperature to increase the movement of particles and thus the rate of collisions (which lead to reactions), have a relatively high density or concentration of particles so that sufficient collisions occur, and be confined within a specific volume through compression or magnetic fields. Only if these key conditions and others are met will fusion be possible. Modern fusion reactors typically use a fuel consisting of a mix of deuterium and tritium, two isotopes of hydrogen. This is usually a 50-50 mix. This is largely because the deuterium-tritium fusion reaction only takes a single collision, while others take multiple - even in the comparably dense plasma, particles are still far apart and less likely to collide and thus react. Power is generated during a fusion reaction as a tiny fraction of the mass is lost and a large amount of energy is released, in accordance with Einstein's famous formula e = mc2, which is why fusion is theoretically an extremely efficient way of generating electricity. However, energy released by the deuterium-tritium fusion reaction is primarily carried by neutrons, which poses a drawback as energy can not be converted as easily in this case in comparison to in the form of a charged particle. Specifically, 80% of the energy is carried by the neutron, while the remaining 20% is carried by the positively charged alpha particle also released by the reaction. Furthermore, the significant amount of free neutrons can also pose a maintenance problem through their bombardment of materials making up the reactor. A tokamak reactor is a specific type of reactor in which magnetic fields are used to confine the fusion plasma in a torus shape. This is possible due to the ionized and thus charged nature of the plasma. Tokamaks are now regarded as the most feasible candidate for practical fusion power. Though the tokamak as a concept has existed since the 1950s, advances in the field and in engineering improvements to said concept throughout the late 20th century created what is now known as the "advanced tokamak", which employs a myriad of theoretical and practical solutions, components, and design choices to ensure its sustainability, efficiency, and safety, such as material choices for reactor walls and the introduction of the divertor, a machine used to remove heavy elements which would've cooled down the plasma otherwise. Theoretical tokamaks are continually improved on by experts as advances in fusion and in science in general are made which could benefit the reactor's capabilities. The ultimate goal of any fusion reactor, including tokamaks, is to reach a point known as scientific breakeven, at which the amount of energy released by the reactions is equal to the amount of energy being used to maintain the plasma and allow for said reactions. No reactor has reached scientific breakeven yet. However, scientific breakeven, defined as Q = 1.0 where Q is the ratio of output to input energy, is far from the ideal. For a reactor to be practically useful for generating electricity, it must have a Q value far higher than 1.0. Usefully, though, the fusion reaction also releases its own heat through alpha particles, which can collide and heat other fuel nuclei. The rate of self-heating is proportional to the rate of fusion. Thus, as fusion becomes more and more efficient, more of the heat needed to continue reactions will be supplied by the reactions themselves, reducing the need for external heating. At a point known as ignition, external heating ceases to be necessary and fusion reactions become self-sustaining. This is the ultimate goal for fusion research, as it opens the doors to a potentially limitless power source.
Revisiting ITER
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, or ITER, is an in-progress megaproject aimed at conducting experimental research into nuclear fusion and consistently surpassing by five times what is known as scientific breakeven, the state at which the power generated by the reactor is equal to the power required to maintain the conditions, particularly temperature, in the plasma required for fusion to occur and thus power to be generated. An international project involving the EU, the USA, Japan, Russia, China, India, and South Korea, ITER hopes to reignite interest in commercial fusion by demonstrating its feasibility. Theoretical calculations and research into ITER's designs and workings have already shown the possibility of the reactor outputting ten times as much thermal energy as is input, though net generation of electricity continues to elude the minds behind the project due to its nature as a research reactor and inadequate thermal-to-electrical energy conversion systems. ITER was first initiated in 1988, and steady, if slow, progress, has taken place ever since. In 2020, it was estimated that the reactor had reached more than 70% progress towards the first generation of plasma, which experts predict will be possible by 2025 following current trends. Once finished, ITER will become the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experimental facility and the largest fusion reactor ever built. However, several major issues arising recently have impacted the development of ITER, all culminating in a lack of funding and investment which has slowed down the building of the facility. Firstly, scientists and engineers have voiced concerns over the problem of neutron bombardment caused by the fusion reaction, which could damage the reactor and make it not only unsustainable to maintain but ultimately demonstrate economic unviability. Further issues have complicated not only ITER but all reactors of its type, including potential damage to the magnets involved in the reactor and power load on divertors which remove waste material from the reaction chamber actively while fusion is taking place. However, facilities and tests meant to examine and study these problems have not been adequately funded or even started in some cases, leading to a loss of confidence in ITER. Secondly, the general public, activist groups, and politicians have all criticized ITER and fusion power as a whole for various reasons. Some cite concerns over radioactive waste produced by fusion and potential dangers of using high-energy tritium and deuterium while others say that fusion research is a waste of time and is unworthy of investment due to the escalating climate crisis, claiming that focus should be directed towards development of better and safer renewable sources of energy rather than investigating fusion, which could take years or decades to perfect and even more to commercialize. Either way, both critiques of ITER have meant that the political and financial backing behind the project has slowly faded away, and precious funding for the project continues to dwindle as deadlines are extended and targets reset. However, ironically, it is the lack of funding of the project which is further exacerbating these criticisms and leading to draining of funding in turn, creating a feedback loop, as both the safety and sustainability of the reactor have yet to be tested and studied due to a lack of funding and interest by investors. The debunking of the argument against ITER and fusion that it is unviable and an unworthy investment is itself a goal of the project, which experts hope will show to the world that fusion is both technologically and economically feasible. Without properly funding ITER, it is impossible to know whether these concerns are valid or not.
Solving ITER
Thus, we come at the reasonable conclusion to addressing ITER and its problems: allocating sufficient funds for research to be conducted on identifying flaws with the system and design and developing solutions to said flaws. However, this funding is complicated by the sheer number of nations involved in ITER. Not only do we have six world powers, which are in competition with each other, funding the project, but we also have a union of 27 countries and Switzerland adding to the fray. It will be difficult to get all of them to agree on multilaterally increasing spending on it. However, as the organization controlling the territory on which ITER is built and a prominent funder of the program, the EU has significant leverage over the other participants, giving us the ability to pressure them. The European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM), which is currently in control of the construction of ITER and represents the EU and Switzerland in the ITER Council, will be tasked with negotiating with the other six parties. This will be achieved through a carrot and stick strategy. We will first propose a substantial increase to EU funding for ITER. Currently, EURATOM accounts for 45% of ITER funding, which in the future will be lowered to 34% of costs post-construction. This is our carrot: EURATOM will raise its contribution percentage to 50% during construction (i.e. right now) and 38% post-construction, with the percentages of other participants lowered in accordance to current ratios. This may not seem like a huge increase, but it will be due to our next point - in exchange for this generous increase in contributions, total funding for ITER must be increased substantially. In 2018, ITER received approximately 380 Mn euros from member countries - a pittance compared to what the project actually needs. While the EU Parliament and Council authorized a (relatively) massive 7 Bn euros in spending over the period of 2021-2027, this has not been matched by other countries. Our increase to regular contributions, which is therefore more of a minimum, will thus not have a significant impact until the target for the sum of these regular contributions by all countries is changed. The target for the sum of all regular contributions to ITER funding by all seven participants will thus be raised to 2.0 Bn euros per annum, a certainly ambitious but necessary goal if we are to achieve fusion in any realistic timescale. This discounts the 7 Bn euros we have funded through the act passed by the European Parliament and Council, and thus we will expect the other parties of the ITER Council to raise their annual contributions to match the new target in accordance with the set-out contribution percentages. Should any participant be unable or unwilling to pay their target contribution, terms should be negotiated with EURATOM and the ITER Council as a body. Here is where the stick comes in. The nature of international relations means that we cannot directly punish the other participants of ITER. However, as by far the primary funder of ITER, we hold most of the cards of the project, and thus can leverage its progress and future to threaten the other parties. Should the other parties refuse to accept the new annual target without valid reason and not reach a satisfactory agreement with the EU and the ITER Council, we will threaten to unilaterally leave ITER altogether and withdraw all future EU and EURATOM funding to the project, and remind said parties that it is in the EU where ITER is being constructed. It is hard to believe that ITER would be able to continue without European funding, after all. It may be a heavy hand, but it will work.
Beyond the Unknown
Even after securing sufficient funding for ITER, there is still a long way to go until commercial fusion power is in the palm of our hands. For ITER itself, we must secure funding for and immediately begin side projects which aim to study the problems currently affecting ITER and theoretical challenges to the project, and ultimately develop sound solutions to these issues. Furthermore, we will also need to plan and invest in megaprojects beyond ITER, whether on the European or the global scale, particularly a reactor which can, for the first time in history, surpass engineer breakeven (net generation of electricity) through conversion of thermal to electrical energy, with the ultimate goal of fusion ignition kept in the back of our minds. Below, we will provide a rough roadmap and timescale for European and international progress in fusion, especially in relation to ITER and its accompanying and successor projects, as well as a table explaining each project or initiative and how it links back to ITER or fusion research in general. These projects will be funded either through a part of the existing ITER budget or a separate budget created and agreed upon by the ITER council in the case of international initiatives, and EURATOM and the institutions of the EU for European ones.
Roadmap
Roadmap
Timescale
ADX construction begins
Q4 2022
IFNIF final site construction begins
Q2 2023
ITER main facility finished
Q1 2024
ITER first plasma
Q2 2025
DEMO design finalized
Q2 2025
IFNIF final site construction finishes
Q4 2026
ADX construction finishes
Q1 2027
DEMO construction begins
Q1 2027
ITER full D-T reactions begin
Q1 2029
DEMO construction finishes
Q4 2032 (with adjusted funding)
Facility Information
Facility
Description
ADX
A test facility built to investigate the effect of higher-than-expected power load on tokamak divertors and test current divertor designs, as well as to engineer more effective designs for divertors in the future. Construction has not started as of 2022.
IFNIF
A group of test facilities built to test the effect of neutron fluxes and neutron bombardment on fusion reactor materials and superconducting magnets used in tokamak reactors, as well as to provide data to improve on conceptual and engineering designs for future reactors. In progress.
DEMO
The "successor" to ITER, proposed by experts as the first fusion reactor which is a net generator of electricity, with an estimated energy output to input ratio of Q = 25.0. Requires a larger physical size than ITER and higher plasma density. Design in progress. Estimated cost of >30 Bn euros; ITER and EURATOM budgets to be readjusted when DEMO begins construction.
Other test sites
Other facilities which may need to be built to investigate issues encountered as ITER becomes operational and first plasma is achieved. Funds will be set aside should such issues crop up so we can begin construction of these immediately.
Begun, the Drone Wars have: Turkey, Libya, Syria, the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, and how drones are changing warfare
When you were voting, I studied the drone. When you were having coronavirus, I mastered electronic warfare. While you wasted your days at the firing range in pursuit of vanity, I cultivated force projection. And now that the world is on fire and the barbarians are at the gate you have the audacity to come to me for help. --Anonymous Redditor, 2016 [translated by AmericanNewt8 into 2020ese] A new kind of warfare has taken the world by storm this year. While most of us were preoccupied with the election, the coronavirus, and the other exciting events that have taken place over this year when decades happen, a small number of people have kept a close watch on distant battlegrounds in the Middle East; where the face of war has changed since January in ways that few would have predicted--and with it the region as a whole.
1. In the Beginning
But let's go back a ways; to the ancient world of circa 1980. Drones were not a new technology in any sense of the word--but they weren't particularly of interest beyond hobbyists, target drones, and occasional odd military projects like the D-21 reconnaissance drone. However, things were changing with the introduction of digital cameras and increasingly capable processors and transmitters as computers rapidly developed--and so it was only a matter of time before someone took advantage of that. That someone was the Israelis. Israel has a high level of technical expertise, large defense needs, but a relatively small industrial base, so it often pioneers technologies of this sort, and so it did with the Tadiran Mastiff. This innovation quickly proved to be of significant utility in the First Lebanon War. Besides spotting Yasser Arafat, leader of the PLO, they played a crucial role in the still-infamous "Bekaa Valley turkey shoot" in which Israeli aircraft supported by UAVs destroyed a massive quantity of top-of-the-line Soviet hardware--almost 90 Syrian aircraft and 29 surface-to-air missile batteries at the total loss of minor damage to a pair of F-15s and one UAV shot down. Electronic warfare and AWACs control also proved crucial in this conflict, which in many ways paved the way for the successes of Desert Storm and the 2003 Iraq invasion; and reportedly shattered the self-confidence of the Soviet Union in its air defenses. Since that first incident; UAVs have become an increasingly prominent part of the arsenal, particularly of the United States; though Israel and China also manufacture numerous UAVs and theirs are more popular in the export market due to lower prices and fewer scruples about "human rights" or "political stability". UAVs have become key reconnaissance assets and popular for precision-strike counter-insurgency missions. However, neither the United States nor China can claim credit for the latest developments--and Israel, at best, has played a peripheral role. The nation that everyone is watching now is Turkey.
2. Turkey
For most of history, Turkey; or at least the geographical area of Anatolia, was a great power of some shape or another. The modern Turkey, however, rejected the idea of empire and foreign adventurism under Ataturk; the father of the Republic. While it has generally tended towards the West--directed in that way both softly by the allure of Europe and drive for modernization; and with great force by the military, which has tended to depose any government that even hinted at reintroducing religious or Middle Eastern aspects back into the aggressively secular Republic, Turkey has not been a particularly major player in the past century. Despite joining NATO for protection against the Soviet Union--which despised Turkey's chokehold on the Bosporous--it never had much appetite for interventionism. In the era of the "Great Convergence", where nations seem to be returning to historical norms of influence and power, it should be no real surprise then that Turkey has become more assertive. It has grown much wealthier thanks to its association with Europe; and that wealth is actually created by the Turks, not dug up out of the ground like it is in much of the Middle East. It is more educated; more progressive [this of course being a rather relative term] and, importantly, much better at fighting, than most of its neighbors. Turkey has been working to build a domestic armaments industry with great success--barring a handful of key items like jet engines which hardly anyone can manufacture well, Turkey can do most things. In between indigenous development and picking up knowledge from South Korea, China, Ukraine, and so on, Turkey has one of the world's better arms industries--I'd say it's about reached the level that South Korea was at ten or twenty years ago, which is pretty good. Its drone program, however, started because of a different problem. The Turks wanted drones back in the early 2000s for what we in the business call "reasons". Evidently the United States saw through this; because, despite allowing Turkey to license-assemble F-16s and build parts for the F-35, it did not sell Turkey drones for fear that they would be used against the Kurds[a perception that proved to be correct as Turkey has indeed used its UAVs against Kurdish insurgents]. As a result, Turkey decided to do it themselves, and started building up their own drone program from scratch. By the beginning of 2020, Turkey had a large drone program and advanced electronic-warfare equipment. But nobody was really paying attention to their drone program; it was a sideshow of limited interest compared to the big players, that would presumably be of some utility but not a game-changer. I mean, their premiere drone literally used an engine made for homebuilt aircraft and was the size and weight of a smart car. Nothing too impressive. That is, until January.
3. Libya
The Libyan conflict is a deeply convoluted one that is difficult to explain. In essence; Libya has been in some sort of civil war since Gaddafi was deposed in 2011, but the most recent division is between the GNA, or Government of National Accord--the UN-recognized government of Libya located in Tripoli--and the "Tobruk Government" which acts as a rubber-stamp body for Gaddafi wannabe General Haftar. Haftar started off this year with things looking pretty good. After breaking the second cease-fire agreement in as many years, flush with cash and support from the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and France, Haftar was on the move, pushing for Tripoli itself. It was going to take a while, but nothing could stop Haftar from defeating the ragtag GNA militias. Nothing, that is, until Turkey unexpectedly showed up because of a completely different dispute over rights to the seas around Cyprus. Libya [the GNA to be precise] was willing to delineate its boundary with Turkey in a way which cut off Greek and Cypriot claims, and, in return, Turkey arrived after a highly contentious vote in the normally placid Turkish Grand National Assembly, with Syrian mercenaries in tow; but also a large number of drones--mostly the Bayraktar TB2-- and KORAL land-based standoff jammers. What happened next was a deep humiliation for Russia in particular. Russia and the UAE had supplied General Haftar with a number of its premiere short-range air defense system, the much-vaunted Pantsir which was designed to shoot down UAVs, cruise missiles, and other small munitions. Unfortunately, the Pantsir proved much worse at shooting down Turkish drones than serving as target practice for them. Estimates suggest 23 systems were destroyed [Turkey even captured one system and presumably picked it apart for intelligence] while perhaps ~16 Bayraktar TB2 drones were destroyed--which doesn't sound terrible until one remembers that those drones caused significantly more destruction than the air-defense systems and come in at a third of the price; and becomes even less favorable when one realizes that as the conflict went on the ratio flipped increasingly in favor of the Turks. Ultimately, the Turks achieved their goal, with Haftar being pushed back to Sirte and another cease-fire agreement being signed. This conflict, however, has contributed significantly to the increasing rift between France and Turkey, and their respective relations with Russia.
4. Syria
Russia likes to test its luck--to see what exactly it can get away with. Invading Crimea, shooting down a civilian airliner, attempting to murder exiles with Novichok. Often, it does get away with it. But when nations actually push back, they often find great weakness--for instance, the infamous incident where Americans killed 200 Russian "mercenaries" in Syria after Russia denied they were Russian soldiers, or when American cyberwarriors shut down Russian trolls during the 2018 election. Nowhere is this more illustrated than in Syria, where, early this year, a "Syrian" airstrike killed 29 Turkish soldiers even though Russian involvement was an open secret. What followed was not the usual vague condemnation and angry letter-writing that one might have expected. Instead, Turkey responded with a substantial escalation of force, again largely done by drones. Ultimately, around 200 Syrian government soldiers were killed in this short offensive--along with 45 tanks, 33 artillery pieces, 33 transport/utility vehicles, 20 armored vehicles, a pair of Su-24 aircraft that attacked a Turkish drone, and several SAM systems, which again proved largely ineffective against Turkish drones. While the conflict stopped before it went any further, the lesson was clear: Turkey was willing to escalate beyond where Russia was willing or able to respond, and there wasn't anything they could do about it. Besides having a nice moral--extremely hard pushback is the best way to respond to Russian provocation, because they aren't expecting it and can't fight back since they lack effective escalation methods--this conflict proved again that Turkish drones were highly effective even against a state actor [albeit a weak one, like Syria]. The world watched--but nowhere else as closely as Azerbaijan.
5. Artsakh
Artsakh is; or perhaps more aptly was, an Armenian state--not recognized by any other state--within the borders of the former Azerbaijan SSR. It emerged out of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, one of the nastier conflicts resulting from the breakup of the Soviet Union. In short; the Soviet Union put an ethnically Armenian area in the Azerbaijan SSR that was semi-autonomous; called Nagorno-Karabakh, that Armenians viewed as rightfully part of Armenia. When the Soviet Union broke apart--even before it had done so completely--Armenia and Azerbaijan were already engaging in low-level fighting; and in scenes reminiscent of the Partition of 1949, Azeris living in Armenia fled the country--as did their Armenian counterparts in Azerbaijan. Then, as the Soviet Union properly collapsed, both sides geared up for war. The Soviet Union had left quite a lot of stuff lying around as it collapsed; and Azerbaijan ended up with the bulk of it due to the disposition of Soviet forces. Both sides bought black-market weapons and armaments from conscript soldiers in the confusion of the the collapse. And then they went to war. The result was a years-long, brutal conflict that killed tens of thousands of people--in two relatively small countries--and, despite Azerbaijan having more equipment, more men, and more foreign support--from Turkey, which never had much love for Armenia and was building ties with the Turkic peoples of Central Asia [of whom the Azeris are one], and from Israel, who saw a potential new partner in a dangerous region. Armenia had some support from Russia, largely due to connections through a shared religion, nervousness about the Turks, and feelings among the Russian elite that were more sympathetic to Armenia. However, against all odds, the Armenians emerged victorious. In 1994, with the Armenians poised to break out of the mountains and attack the heart of Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan exhausted from years of war, a cease-fire was signed. From that day onwards; both nations began preparing for the return of conflict. It was only a matter of time. Armenia had not only taken Nagorno-Karabakh, they had taken large portions of ethnically Azeri land as well, including sites that were of paramount cultural and historical importance to the Azeris. They also engaged in ethnic cleansing, and to this day Azerbaijan, at least nominally, has hundreds of thousands of refugees from the conflict. In the intervening years, however, things changed. In particular; Turkey rose to a newfound regional prominence, and Azerbaijan, though being careful to always maintain a measure of proximity to Russia sufficient to not cause its rulers concern, slowly drifted towards Turkey and Israel. Ties with Turkey stretched to a mutual defense agreement.Ties to Israel included offering potential basing in Azerbaijan, the sale of oil [not many nations would sell Israel oil until recently] along with shadowy intelligence connections--Mossad operations in Iran are believed to be launched out of Azerbaijan [for a number of reasons, Iran and Azerbaijan don't like each other very much]. And Azerbaijan, noted for its oil reserves as far back as the Second World War; collected large revenues which it sunk into military spending. Meanwhile, Armenia, despite making large purchases from Russia, fell behind in military readiness, and in its economy--not helped by the fact that, because of a mix of pro-Azeri Turkish policy and Armenian distrust and even hatred of Turkey [thanks to the fact that Turkey argues over whether even discussing "those unfortunate events of 1915" is okay], the Turkish border remains closed--meaning that trade can only go via Iran or Georgia. Meanwhile, the peace process dithered on, with occasional small skirmishes breaking out. The regular theme was that Armenia would hand over the Azeri-majority [now unoccupied] territory it captured, and Nagorno-Karabakh would, in return, be recognized, or become autonomous, or something of the sort. The Minsk Group led these efforts; though not particularly well--all three members had significant biases. The Russians were pro-Armenian though not anti-Azeri [mostly, they were in favor of the status quo, which favored them], the French were pro-Armenian [on account of disliking Turkey and having a politically influential Armenian population much like the Cubans in Miami], and the Americans were sufficiently pro-Azeri that they created manuals like this and defending the fictional nation of Atropia [which just happens to be an oil-rich, pro-Western autocracy that is exactly where Azerbaijan is] against foreign invaders became a meme among the US military--you can buy "Atropia Veteran" swag, and it became so transparent that Europeans complained about "defending autocrats" in the exercise and Turkish officials complained that "Limaria" [Armenia] included areas that should have been in "Kemalia" [Turkey]. Ultimately, by 2020, a few things had changed. After victory in clashes in 2016, and purchases of new arms, Azerbaijan was confident that it wouldn't fail due to military incompetence like last time. Armenia had elected a new leader, more distant from Russia [especially since he came to power in a 'color revolution'], complicating any Russian response. Not only that, but Armenia had begun settling in territory that was formerly ethnically Azeri, and had attempted to rewrite history so the land they had taken was somehow always Armenian, making a land swap less tenable--especially after the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh was renamed to the Republic of Artsakh. Domestic protests about a lack of action on the issue further spurred action, but perhaps the most decisive factor was Turkey's drone-fueled rampage and Russia's no good, very bad year elsewhere [from the domestic economy to the chaos in Belarus]. So at the end of September 2020, they went to war.
6. Curb-stomp battle
Course of the conflict by Liveuamap Initially, the war looked like it was serious, but not out of line with previous escalations. Azeri and Armenian forces clashed along the border--but then Azerbaijan made a major incursion along the southern border, which is flat and nearly completely unpopulated, and through the rest of the war pushed through there until they ultimately cut the single road leading to Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia when they recaptured Shusha. At that point, Armenia capitulated. While the exact details of why this happened are of relatively little importance, what does matter is what drones did. Armenian air defenses proved completely defenseless against the onslaught of Azerbaijan, with even larger and heavier systems like Russia's S-300 being destroyed by Turkish-manufactured drones. Even the An-2, a literal Soviet 1940s cropdusting biplane, proved lethal to air defenses when rigged with the right equipment. As a result, Azerbaijan swept across Armenian forces with drones, targeting anything larger than a bicycle, destroying tanks, artillery pieces, and surface-to-air-missile systems alike. While initially Azerbaijan didn't advance, they pursued a strategy of attrition against Armenian forces--and were quite successful at it. Nowhere was safe for Armenian infantry--even miles behind the front, drones were still a risk. After a few weeks of this, Azerbaijan began their offensive. This was interrupted by several ceasefires, the most successful of which lasted around fifteen minutes. In the meantime, Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in tactics reminiscent of the War of the Cities. Armenians made rocket attacks on Azeri civilian targets, and even ballistic missile strikes with SCUDs and Tokchas against Ganja, an Azeri metropolis, with later attacks also taking place against Barda and other targets. Virtually all sources agree that Armenia conducted a deliberate policy of targeting civilians in retaliation from the advance of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, adopted what I would characterize as a callous indifference to Armenian civilian lives. We have relatively little documentation on exactly what they did, but it is likely that major war crimes were committed against Armenian prisoners. However, we do know that rockets and cluster munitions were used against civilian areas of Stepanakert. By and large, though, Azerbaijan's government is mindful of global sensitivities and would rather avoid making itself a bigger villain than it has to be.
7. Ending
By the first week of November, despite appearances, it had become clear Armenia was losing. While they still held most of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azeri forces were rapidly closing in on the major road [1 of 2] that connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia proper. Armenian forces were demoralized and lacked heavy equipment. Civilians fled; with most of the population of Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, fleeing before the road was cut. Analysts had few doubts that, within another few weeks, before winter arrived, Azerbaijan could take all of Nagorno-Karabakh. But fortunately, several factors coincided. First, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan realized the situation Armenia was in, and presumably began talking about peace. President [and resident dynastic autocrat] of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev had achieved most of the territorial gains he wanted, but as far as I can tell had little to no interest in making his country notorious for what would surely be the ethnic cleansing of tens of thousands of people. Russia was interested in making sure that any deal possible happened that could salvage its privileged position in the region. And since Azerbaijan had acheived its major goals, Turkey was alright with suing for peace as well. The final impetus was provided by the Azeris taking Shusha, the second-largest city in the region [and one of tremendous cultural importance to the Azeri people], and, at around the same time, the Azeris accidentally shooting down a Russian attack helicopter on the border. The ultimate deal was incredibly favorable to the Azeris, which should be expected given that they could have taken the rest of the region with relative ease. It involved Armenia vacating most of Nagorno-Karabakh and all the ethnically Azeri land they had taken, bar the Lachin Corridor. Of particular importance to Turkey, and to the Azeri economy, was that the deal created a corridor through Armenia to Azerbaijan's western exclave, and hence to Turkey, for transit. While still an indirect route, it is nowhere near as difficult as traveling around through Georgia. Russia also got to pretend like it still mattered by deploying a few thousand peacekeepers for what seems likely to be a limited time. Azerbaijan celebrated. As far as anyone was concerned, they had won. Turkey also celebrated--they had, in their view, not only supported the Turkic Azeris in a victory against the Armenians, but also won a battle against Russia to see whom was the real dominant power in the Caucasus. Russia didn't celebrate, but felt that it had at least maintained some sort of influence in the region when initially things looked like they might ultimately sideline Russia entirely. Armenia, however, unsurprisingly, was enraged, and rioters smashed government buildings and forced Prime Minister Pashinyan into hiding; however, it looks like the Armenians realize that they really had no chance of winning and aren't going to resume the conflict.
8. What Now?
In a strange twist of fate, there is some speculation that peace is now more likely than it was before the war. In particular, some think that Turkey will be interested in finally coming to terms with the Armenians and opening its border with Armenia--which would significantly reduce Russian influence in the region and promote economic development--and some speculate that Azerbaijan may now be willing to make a lasting peace deal since it has, essentially, all that it wants. This war chronicles one of this year's themes--the decline of Russia, and rise of Turkey. I would expect to see more conflict between them in the future, and I'd expect to see, in a strange historical irony, Turkey coming out on top. Russia has not had a very good year at all and I think this conflict is really just the latest example of how far it has fallen in its military capabilities and political influence despite what Putin shows off. Small drones are now the obsession of every military planner, as is trying to figure out a way to shoot them down reliably. Already a number of nations have expressed interest in buying the Turkish drones that had such a decisive impact on these conflicts. It seems likely that this will especially transform lower-end conflicts where foreign powers can now intervene without risking more than a few million dollars in equipment, and where local powers can now field their own drones and precision-guided munitions while being, for the moment, largely unopposed. Whatever the ultimate impact, though, it is undeniable that this change in warfare has been one of the more important and interesting bits of 2020 thus far, though it's behind some truly massive things. Unlike the coronavirus, or Donald Trump, however, these trends are probably with us to stay for a while. I don't think we've heard the last of the drone-warfare revolution yet.
Free Football Tips and Predictions. Welcome to PredictZ! PredictZ provides free football tips and predictions, free analysis, football form and statistics, the latest results and league tables and much more. Moldova vs Russia prediction comes ahead of the international friendly fixture on Thursday, 13th November 2020, at Stadionul Zimbru in Chisinau. Let’s take a look at the match preview as we try to provide the best betting tips and correct score prediction for this tie. Moldova vs Russia Betting Tips . In the last few months, Moldova played in the UEFA Nations League – League C, where they Russia vs Sweden Prediction was posted on: October 5, 2020. Our prediction for this match: Russia. Match Time & Date: 08/10/2020. 09:15 AM. Prediction: 1-1. Sweden. Montenegro will be looking to build on back-to-back wins over Cyprus and Luxembourg when they take on Latvia in a friendly. Faruk Hadzibegic’s troops made a brilliant start to their Nations League campaign, and even though Matija We are an online football prediction site that provides free real football predictions and, sports betting tips to its users. Here we believe victory is better guaranteed, so we give you an edge by providing well researched football match forecasts that are properly categorized, and include the most recent odds offered by bookmakers. Our unique interface makes it easy for users to view the 1960Tips is the best football prediction sites in the world with free soccer prediction, football betting tips, analysis on over and under 2.5, btts, corners, cards, sure odds and more free soccer prediction and best football tips, visit us @ 1960tips.com now If you are looking for sites that predict football matches correctly, Victorspredict is the Best Football Prediction Website. soccer prediction site, site that predicts football matches correctly . Follow a Reliable Soccer Prediction Site and Earn a Good Amount of Money. Soccer is a game, which is thrill and fun-packed. Every single strategy and move of players make football excited and We provide soccer results and predictions since 1999. Choose soccer league and you will find statistics, picks, tables and information for all your betting needs. All football information on this site is free. You can choose a football game by date or select league from the country list. For detailed information about match click into score link. WHAT ARE THE BEST FOOTBALL PREDICTION SITES? Tips180.com is the best football prediction site. At tips180, we offer the best betting tips and guide on how to make money steadily from football betting. Example of scheme offered is football investment scheme where we unveil the world of football investment and guide you on how to increase your profits immediately! Our investment tracker shows Welcome to Betshoot.com! A sports betting prediction site that helps you improve your betting. You can learn more about us and our history. The main purpose is to help those involved in sports betting, beginners or experts. Experienced authors & trusted tipsters will guide you to have more accurate predictions, by providing detailed sports betting tips with the information you need before Russia vs Turkey prediction comes ahead of the UEFA Nations League, League B fixture on Sunday, 11th October 2020, at Stadion Dinamo in Moscow. Let’s take a look at the match preview as we try to provide the best betting tips and correct score prediction for this tie. Russia vs Turkey Betting Tips . Russia started the Nations League with six points from two matches. In the opening round
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