NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 4: Chiefs edge

nfl week 4 picks ats score predictions

nfl week 4 picks ats score predictions - win

Game Matchups Preview AFC Championship: Bills @ Chiefs

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome!
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense
In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch.
And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night.
Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense
While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy.
Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level.
There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen.
This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense
The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat.
Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defense here) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and…
Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers.
This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense
The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about.
In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him.
I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams
Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs.
As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL.
For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play.
And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl.
Why We Will Win
This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing.
Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Chiefs 28
Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.
submitted by UberHansen to buffalobills [link] [comments]

Dynasty Deep Work

I recently read Cal Newport’s book Deep Work.
To summarize his work in two sentences is to do it a disservice, but I think the gist is this:
Deep work, or “the ability to focus without distraction on a cognitively demanding task” is a profoundly important skill, which enables much of today’s most valuable work. Yet, the constant blur of email, social media, and the internet inhibits our ability to go deep—indeed, many have lost the skill entirely.
Suffice it to say, I find this an apt description of who I am as a dynasty fantasy football player (not to mention that dynasty may be one such distraction from more important work in my life). I have aggregated Twitter lists of (fantasy) football accounts which I endlessly scroll through. I peruse this subreddit, the DLF forums, and dynasty discords, constantly skimming others’ insights.
Now, to be fair, I think this has made me pretty successful at dynasty.
I’m ahead of the curve on many sleepers. I rostered James Robinson, Myles Gaskin, Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Robert Tonyan, and Logan Thomas on two or more of my five dynasty teams this past year, and added all for free (or close to it).
Outside of drafting N’Keal Harry in two leagues in 2019, I’ve drafted fairly well.
That being said, doing so takes a lot of time, is unfulfilling, and adds little value.
Moreover, although finding a reason to be involved in football year-round is great, I find little value in staying engaged (at least in the shallow, surface-level way) from between when the regular season ends until about a week before the NFL draft.
So, I guess this is my way of announcing (to nobody in particular, at least nobody who should care), that I plan to take a break from dynasty reddit/TwitteSleeper, and that I’d encourage you all to do the same.
That being said, to atone for the fact that I’ve made you read a wall of text, written with a snobbish, somewhat self-important tone despite its relative unimportance, I’d like to consolidate some of the best quantitative and qualitative insights I have on fantasy football to keep you all from wasting as much shallow time on fantasy football as I have.
I also do this to hopefully spark some idea for a “deep” dynasty project (akin to Jordan McNamara’s Analytics of Dynasty or Peter Howard’s database) and possibly find collaborators. I’m thinking that perhaps a public database of ‘21 prospects which consolidates tweets/articles written about those prospects by notable analysts (film, analytics, or otherwise) could be helpful.
Here are helpful statistics for...
Though these are the “stickiest” statistics, they still only have a R^2 of around 40% (with some variance by position). Peter Howard talks about them all here (around minute 85).
This sounds trite, but it’s not. Good RBs are generally good as rookies (some possible indicators of “being good” are yards per team attempt (RBs with two top-12 season average around 1.4 YPTA in their rookie year, minute 89), rushing yards over expectation, or praise from film analysts like JMoyer and Matt Waldman). Moreover, most long-term stud TEs generally breakout in their first or second year.
Again, not the end-all, be-all, but this is why you pick up Robert Tonyan and Logan Thomas instead of Jace Sterberger, Jeremy Sprinkle, and Thaddeus Moss.
​
This year that could have netted you Josh Jacobs, Ronald Jones, Terry McLaurin, and Calvin Ridley at the beginning of the year, and Tee Higgins and Myles Gaskin during the middle of the season. (Who knows if all those will turn out to be good buys, but most of them seem to have seen their value rise significantly in dynasty after when they were identified as good buys.)
Of course, all of this is just an aid. None of these indicators are deterministic or have flawless records. But, the nice thing is, they can help you account for earlier misses. For instance, if you—like most of breakout age twitter—faded Terry McLaurin as a rookie, when he had an incredible PFF grade midseason and at the end of the rookie year, plus > 2.0 yards per route run, plus was valued higher in redraft than dynasty, those all should’ve told you to buy Terry McLaurin aggressively.
Here are a few narratives I FADE and BUY:
FADE coach-centric narratives *
* Unless with the current personnel (meaning offensive starters and OC), that coach as clearly demonstrated and articulated their preference (for instance, Carrol and Zimmer’s desire to establish the run), I find you often lose more value than you gain by making predictions and projections based on qualitative coaching tendencies.
BUY talent
(That being said) FADE unproductive rookies
BUY that the startup is the easiest place to accrue value (and trade for future rookie picks).
FADE “can’t stay on the field” narratives, namely someone being “injury prone” or having “character concerns.” * Here’s why (part 1) (part 2).
* Like always, there are a few exceptions. Soft-tissue injuries (particularly an achilles injury) can be significant. Talk of a player being deep in the drug-prevention program (particularly if they’re a highly-valued player) and an indefinite suspension is a real threat is worth paying attention to.
BUY far-out rookie picks.
BUY “base rates” narratives.
FADE narratives which use one metric / threshold to encourage not drafting a player (rookies, in particular).
BUY narratives which use multiple metrics / thresholds to characterize a rookie class as a whole. (Basically, what I’m saying is that context is important.)
FADE college awards as being anything more than an indicator that someone is a good college player. (Also FADE conference-driven takes.)
FADE consensus “buy lows / buy highs”
So, on a related note…
BUY “buy high / sell high" narratives
BUY PPR is the best scoring system.
Whew! That was a long post. Hopefully some of it was helpful. I’ll end by encouraging some great Twitter follows (though again, I’d encourage simply taking a break, like I’m about to do, from that entire world until about a week before the draft).
AdamHarstad
You’ll get smarter if you follow him, and be a better a dynasty manager. Incredibly kind, too, which is arguably more important. If you want to avoid falling victim to Berkson’s and other types of selection of bias (well, as much as you can), or simply marvel in awe at someone with an encyclopedic knowledge of PFR, he’s your guy.
JMoyerFB
He’s the (RB) film analyst I most trust. Underrated follow in this community, I think. (MattWaldman also does great work, but I can’t keep up with his endless stream of content. MarkSchofield is great for QBs.)
RayGQue
Great devy film analyst. As the rest of my post indicates, I obviously skew toward metrics/analytics. He’s a great counterbalance. (Though they all vary in how film-centric their analysis is, I’d put devydeets, angelo_fantasy, ProFootballPSI, and JordanReid in the same category. 7RoundsInApril is also a great follow for insight into draft prospects.)
Not for everybody, but absolutely worth a follow:
DevyEusuf
All-star Twitter user. Receipts for days, and he’s right more often than anyone else I know when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. His “fuck off” quote tweets are hilarious (or possibly humiliating / infuriating if you’re on the other side.) If you don’t want that energy, then don’t follow, but at least check out what he has to say.
Fantasy_Mansion
Matt Kelley draws the ire of many on this subreddit for how often he trumpets speed score and breakout age, but there’s a reason he does that: they’re good metrics. He’s built a fantasy football media empire, and playerprofiler is an incredible free tool (which he built).
A couple quick hitters (in list form):
evansilva and RyanMc23
If you’re not following Evan (if only for his weekly takeaways during the regular season) and Ryan (if only for his DLF ADP data), what are you doing? Fantasy giants.
MattHarmon_BYB
Reception perception is awesome.
sidelinehustle
Great at identifying some underrated / good route-runners.
GrahamBarfield
His yards created model is great.
SamWallace_FF
Great at spotting talent.
HaydenWinks
Great points over expected model.
LordReebs
SigmundBloom
MiKeMeUpP
Ihartitz
ChadParsonsNFL
dwainmcfarland
ClutchFantasy
JerrickBackous
DFBeanCounter
MetricScout
CPatrickNFL
PatThorman
DBro_FFB
ChrisAllenFFWX
ZWKfootball
32BeatWriters
JetPackGalieo
jlarkytweets
goldengate_ff
FairlyOdd_FF
FFNewsletter
FF_RTDB
DynastyJacobian
Justin_14P
Whew! That’s all for now, folks. Also, the formatting copied weirdly, so I'm sorry about that.
submitted by rockthefield to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

NFL Championship Round Predictions Thread (2021 Playoffs)

Happy Inauguration Day, /NFL! While we do our best to keep politics out of this subreddit, it is an important day that I hope everyone appreciates. We had a pretty great Divisional round with some great football being played. We most likely saw the end of an era with Brees possibly playing his last game in the Superdome. We saw the Bills continue their hot streak to advance to the Championship game. We also got scared when we saw Mahomes go down and Henne take over. The Divisional round gave me a 3-1 result. I would love to hear everyone else's final results if you all want to post them. We're down to the final two games before the Big Show with some young dudes playing in one conference and some old dudes playing in the other. Let's do this!

Sunday, January 24th

Matchup Time/Network Winner Comments
Buccaneers @ Packers 3:05p ET on FOX Packers Green Bay looked unstoppable against the Rams with Rodgers' efficiency and a running game by Jones, Williams and Dillon. They generated just 94 rushing yards in their loss at Tampa this season ignited by two Rodgers' INTs. The Bucs had five sacks in that game. White and David are speedy LBs who can stuff the run, which will be the challenge for a Packers' O-line. Rodgers needs those play-action opportunities to work with Adams and Tonyan. Green Bay made it look easy against the Rams. Then there's Brady, who's working with a loaded group of receivers. Jones had 113 yards and two TDs in the first meeting, and Green Bay's defense has been susceptible to the run. DT Clark needs to be more disruptive in this game. Gary, and the two Smiths need to pressure Brady, or he will sit back and work down the field. It'll be interesting to see who wins the red-zone matchups between Gronk, Evans and Green Bay's secondary with CB Alexander and S Savage Jr. With these two QBs, it'll come down to a few key plays. The Packers will hold on to a one-score lead at halftime, but Tampa Bay ties it early in the fourth quarter with a Brown/Evans/Godwin TD. It really might come down to which QB has the ball last and which defense comes up with the stop. Then there's the cold of Lambeau Field, which might make a slight difference in this potential epic game. Brady has a chance to make the Bucs the first team ever to host a Super Bowl. He'll just have to outplay Rodgers, who is arguably having his best season ever.
Bills @ Chiefs 6:40p ET on CBS Chiefs It's hard to pick this game without knowing whether Mahomes is playing this week, but we're going to go with him playing. It'll be a strong Bills favorability if he doesn't. CEH practiced last week but was inactive for the Browns' game. He had 161 rushing yards in their regular season win against the Bills in Week 6. Williams started over Bell last week, so he could be the focus if CEH can't go. The Chiefs also were without Watkins last week. Kelce and Hill were still in action; they can hit the chunk plays against Buffalo's secondary no matter who is at QB. Bills QB Allen has a stronger connection now with Diggs, who has emerged as one of the best WRs in the league. Allen will target Diggs frequently while Beasley and Brown help take advantage of their 1-on-1 opportunities. The Bills need to generate a running game with Singletary early, and Allen will make more plays this time. Again, this pick still comes down to Mahomes. If he's cleared, then assume he's healthy enough to lead the Chiefs to another Super Bowl appearance. I think Buffalo takes the early lead on a Diggs' TD, and the Bills cling to a third-quarter lead before the Mahomes magic act begins. Second-half TDs to Kelce and Hill re-take the lead, and KC closes the door behind the running game in the fourth quarter. It's tight again, but KC repeats as AFC champions. I think many would love to see a Buffalo upset, though.
Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck!
Update: 1-1, Super Bowl in two weeks.
Championship Round based off current predictions.
submitted by baconlovr to nfl [link] [comments]

Official r/NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 15 Official NFL Power Rankings! A circle of parity has finally been created in the unlikeliest of fashions, with late season pushes bringing some teams closer together than ever. Will any more bottom feeders continue to prove themselves with two weeks left? Can losing teams shake their bad juju to finish the season strong? Discuss! 29/32 Reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Chiefs -- 13-1 The Chiefs offensive line was going to be a weak spot in this game, and the Saints defensive line took advantage. An already so-so group had to deal with injuries and despite being pressured on over 40% of drop backs, Mahomes still made magic. The Chiefs were definitely given all they could handle though, as they didn't score on 7 possessions and credit is due to the Saints for a good game on defense. An off night from Brees and a solid performance from the Chiefs defense gave the Chiefs offense enough opportunities so they could pull ahead just enough for a win. Will the Chiefs style of letting the offense be the closer at the end of the game continue to succeed? It's hard to say. However, with the 1 seed basically locked up and Mahomes at QB, it's hard not to be optimistic about the Chiefs' chances to get back to the Super Bowl.
2. Bills +1 11-3 The Buffalo Football Bills have secured the AFC East title for the first time in 25 years. Not only that, but a Pittsburgh loss has thrust the Bills into the second seed. Josh Allen might have the hottest hand in football right now, coming out in a nationally televised game and lighting a defense up for the third consecutive week. With John Brown due back, this Bills offense is fully primed and ready to make a playoff push. Now, it’s off to New England, where Buffalo opened as six point favorites. Shortsman good, hoodie man bad. No matter how far the Patriots have fallen this year, a big win in Gillette would still feel great.
3. Packers -1 11-3 After the start to that game, it was almost disappointing that the Packers didn't score more than 24 points, but the defense stepped up and got the win. Saints and Rams both lost, so now the Pack can clinch the 1 seed if things go their way next week. Next week is the Titans, so a win certainly isn't guaranteed. Not looking forward to Derrick Henry stiff-arming are godawful run D but hey at least the Packer have Trubisky in the back pocket for Week 17.
4. Saints -- 10-4 A loss to this Chiefs team isn't unexpected; but the Saints will need to return to form to avoid a Steelers-esque collapse. If Anzalone recovers that fumble, who knows what the final result would have been.. The defensive unit got the Saints in a hole early but deserves praise for adjusting and holding Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce to their lowest yardage numbers since October, while also keeping Tyreek Hill contained as well.
5. Colts +2 10-4 Powerranking convention stipulates we keep our blurbs short and don't write in 1st person. Screw it. After a decade of doing this I have three left before I retire so I'm going to trade in my editorial chips for this one. This Colts team is one of my favorites ever. They're inspiring. I'm going to pull up this highlight as indicative of everything I'm talking about. The AFC is really good this year; the Colts needed this W against the Texans. Houston, driving, final seconds, 4th & 5 from about the 15. Does the pursuit slack when Coutee finds a hole, or even more when he makes a man miss at the 5? Hell no! Not only did Leonard recover perfectly to punch the ball out, I was all about Kenny Moore on this play. Falling on a fumble in the endzone is never as easy as it appears (see Saints ' attempt near the half of the Chiefs game). Moore, in an instant, dives over the ball to block Jordan Aikens from recovering. By doing so, he ensures blue jerseys are at the bottom of the pile and the Colts get out of there with a victory. What heart. What a team. I know it sounds trite but the journey has been worth it, even if the Colts don't win it all this year. Watching veterans like Papa Rios, Xavier Rhodes, and Justin Houston serve as auxiliary coaches to this young Colts team warms the soul. I can't say enough good things about this team. Merry Christmas to all.
6. Titans +2 10-4 The Titans were able to get to 10 wins for the first time since 2008 on the back of Ryan Tannehill's 5 TDs against the Lions on Sunday.
7. Browns +4 10-4 The door to the playoffs is no longer closed. With two games to go the Browns could very well win the division. The Browns will face the struggling Jets and then a final game against Pittsburgh. Will it all come down to week 17? The history of fans being a stressed out mess says yes.
8. Seahawks +1 10-4 The Seahawks scraped by with a win against the Football Team week 15, but oh lordy was it ugly. The decline in the offense continues in even more apparent fashion this week, as someone who simply cannot be the same MVP frontrunner from the beginning of the season completed 18 passes for 121 yards through the entire game. The offensive line, however, did not give up a single sack to the WFT D-Line, which is kinda cool. The defense has absolutely taken a major step forward as of late. DJ Reed played lights out on Sunday, nabbing 1 of 2 Haskins interceptions. He has certainly earned himself a role on this defense even once (if?) Quinton Dunbar returns from injury. Rookie Alton Robinson had a great game as well, getting to Haskins for a strip sack and making his presence felt throughout the game. The Seahawks offense will need to wake up this week as the Rams come to Seattle fresh off a shocking loss to the Jets. Aaron Donald is going to be hungry. Please I miss the DK bombs.
9. Ravens +1 9-5 Two straight games with 40+ points is looking great on this final playoff push, even if it's against awful defenses. The defense still needs to do more work, though. Congratulations to Matthew Judon for the Pro Bowl invite! Ringo Starr is smiling somewhere. It's also nice to know that Huntley's got wheels, cuz bruhhh.
10. Steelers -5 11-3 Hubris. Injuries. Predictable playcalling on offense. Bad throws, guys not catching the ball on the occasions they are on-target. The Bengals played well. The Steelers did not. This wasn't the Steelers playing down to their opponent. This is them simply playing down while the Bengals played with inspiration. It's especially embarrassing to lose after JuJu does a TikTok video on the Bengals logo, fumbles there, and Kevin Greene passes away. Such a bad look. It's time to get serious and RIP to Greene. Arrogance needs to give way to humility and hunger.
11. Buccaneers +1 9-5 After starting the game down 24-7, Tom Brady once again did his best William Tecumseh Sherman impersonation and destroyed Atlanta again. Devin White decided to play a (rare) good game, sacking Matt Ryan three times, while Mike Evans had another centennial game. For the first time in 13 years, playoffs appear close to certain for the Bucs. Perhaps, they'll find more success there than they did the Pro Bowl, where only one player from the Bucs was named (Jason Pierre-Paul).
12. Rams -6 9-5 There really wasn’t anything that went right for either team this game. For the Rams, a new low was reached in the Sean McVay era as they got outplayed and outcoached in all phases: the inconsistent offense again started too slow, the defense failed to make stops or create any sparks, and McVay made some questionable decisions down the stretch. All this cements the Rams as the most inconsistent team in the NFL, capable of making a Super Bowl run, or losing to an 0-13 team. For the Jets, well, you know.
13. Dolphins -- 9-5 What a week for the Dolphins! They run the Pats right out of the playoffs and the Jets drop from the top pick in the draft, while the Dolphins top draft pick moved up a bit. That said, while the offense performed very well in the 2nd half, running the ball in a way that the team hasn't in years, they need to figure out how to play an entire game again, because they're in playoff situation football from here on out, and the competition will get better every week.
14. Cardinals -- 8-6 Hurts and Murray both played well in an exciting game where the Cardinals came out on top to hold onto the final playoff spot, for now. However, the game wasn't without issues. The offense had two redzone turnovers and aside from getting an early safety the defense making Hurts looks like a superstar (which he could very well be) made the game a lot harder than it should have been. Another must win will be a Saturday matinee against the 49ers.
15. Bears +3 7-7 The Bears are coming back stronger than a 90s trend and have played themselves into a position to make the playoffs if they get a little help. Driving this resurgence is an offense that has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games for the first time since 2013. The Bears recent W-L record hides a concerning trend by the defense, which has surrendered 27+ points in 3 of the last 4 games.
16. Washington FT -- 6-8 Washington's 4 game winning streak comes to an end but once again they find a way to stay in the game and have a chance to win in late. This team is proving they aren't an easy out for anyone. This loss ultimately doesn't change their situation much thanks to week 15 results in the division. Their best case scenario at the moment, beat Carolina next week and hope NY falls to Baltimore and they're in.
17. Raiders -2 7-7 The season is basically over for the Raiders now. The only good thing to have come from their loss against the Chargers is knowing that the best backup QB in the league is on the Raiders. On to the next game, and thankfully, soon enough, the next season.
18. Vikings -1 6-8 The Vikings were effectively knocked out of playoff contention after their injury-riddled defense comprised almost entirely of backups only forced one punt from the Mitch-Trubisky led offense. The silver lining for this Vikings' squad is how good their rookie class looks: Justin Jefferson made the pro bowl after breaking Randy Moss' record for most catches by a Vikings' rookie receiver and is currently second only to Davante Adams in WR grade, Cameron Dantlzer is PFF's highest-graded cornerback over the nine weeks since the Vikings' bye week, Jeff Gladney and Ezra Cleveland are two of the higher-rated rookies at their respective positions, and DJ Wonnum is third among rookie DEs in pressures.
19. Patriots -- 6-8 Well this is how it happens, worst record since drafting Brady - missing the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. Can't overstate how the shit Miami running game steamed us, while we failed to steam them at all! Congrats to punter Jake Bailey on being selected to the pro bowl. for sound analysis check here
20. 49ers -- 5-9 Once again, turnovers doomed the 49ers. Two fumbles in the first 6 minutes of the game put them down 14-0. Then after clawing themselves back into the game, turnovers doomed them down the stretch, with Mullens throwing a pair of interceptions to go along with his first half fumble. The Niners are out of the playoff hunt, but expect Kittle and possibly Jimmy G to make their returns before the end of the regular season.
21. Chargers +6 5-9 This was more interesting than it should have been. Herbert and Mariota turned this game into the Eugene Air Show, with both QBs trading scoring drives routinely throughout the game. Chargers special teams continued to struggle with two 4th quarter FGs missed, but the Chargers got it done in overtime. Justin Herbert now has the most 300+ passing games by a rookie in league history (7) and ties Baker Mayfield's rookie passing TD mark (27) with two games to go, the first of which will be the final home game this season against Denver.
22. Falcons +1 4-10 Some will claim a curse as the only answer as to why a three score lead in the second half means nothing anymore, but they might be underestimating coaching ineptitude. At least they gained as much ground in the draft as Fournette did on this first down. Remaining games in Arrowhead and Raymond James aren't instilling confidence anytime soon, not when a pandemic can't even protect Atlanta from bad man Brady.
23. Eagles +2 4-9-1 Even in a loss the jump from Carson to Hurts is looking more solid by the week. Hurts was 24-44 for 338 yards, 3 TD/ 0 INT, you'd have to go back to last year to find a game where Wentz had a better passer rating than Hurts on Sunday. Unfortunately with three of four secondary starters out, Murray had one of his most efficient games to date.
24. Giants -2 5-9 The Giants’ offense has reached levels of ineptitude that the defense cannot come close to overcoming. A hobbled DJ nor a healthy Colt are going to be enough to keep Big Blue competitive against Baltimore. Jason Garrett has been as advertised by Cowboys fans, and we’re paying the price for it.
25. Broncos -4 5-9 Losing a blowout on a Saturday in the middle of a day in front of an empty stadium during a pandemic in a game broadcast on NFL Network has to be to the most pathetic thing an NFL team can do, no?
26. Panthers -2 4-10 Another game, another chance to win or tie on a final drive, and another failure by Teddy Bridgewater. This season has started to become something like Groundhog Day, and it’s not getting better. Yesterday, our GM Marty Hurney was fired over “philosophical differences” on how to build a team. The next GM is most likely going to be in-house, either Pat Stewart (currently Director of Player Personnel) or Samir Suleiman (currently Director of Player Negotiations), and will have a huge decision to make regarding who to take with our first pick and what to make of Teddy “Deja Vu” Bridgewater.
27. Cowboys +2 5-9 Thirty points for the second week in a row, and a second win to go along with it. 24 points off of turnovers paint a more complete picture, as this team produced 150 fewer yards of offense than the 49ers, losing the TOP battle by ten minutes as well. Still, improvement exists, and somehow playoffs are not yet off the table.
28. Lions -2 5-9 Welp, The Detroit Lions have been eliminated after their loss to the Tennessee Titans Sunday. After two very competitive showings against the Bears and Packers, this week was lopsided. Matthew Stafford decided to play through his injury and played well. Unfortunately, his injury was the least of their problems. Defensively; missing many starters, Detroit was dominated everywhere giving up 46 points. The Lions offense did move the ball consistently, but they were unable to keep pace. A costly fumble by TJ Hockenson on a drive destined to cut the lead to 2 shifted the momentum big time. Detroit made some simple mistakes like missing extra points which didn't help either. Darrell Bevell has two opportunities left to continue to make a case for a job in Detroit or elsewhere. #Onepride (Credit DoseOfDion 2.0)
29. Texans -1 4-10 Losing on a red zone turnover to a division rival is bad enough. Doing it twice in three weeks to the same team doesn't numb the pain any further. Not with a blowout loss to the Bears sandwiched in between and the Dolphins reaping the reward of Houston's draft capital.
30. Bengals -- 3-10-1 After Joe Burrow got hurt things did not go well for a while, and it was hard to see...It's just nice to win one.
31. Jets +1 1-13 Sunday's win over the Rams may go down as one of the worst losses in franchise history.
32. Jaguars -1 1-13 Finally, the Jaguars manage to slip into first... pick in the draft! There isn't much else to say. The Jaguars are the worst team in football. This trend will continue for the remainder of the season. If anything, fans have the post-season fireworks to look forward to.
submitted by NFLPowerRankers to nfl [link] [comments]

Here's an in-depth breakdown of Super Bowl LV:

​
https://preview.redd.it/xm2rmxgccif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=727ec6ddc09f8e0ebc58dfbb4bfe5a6e702fff49
​
We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
​
​

Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

​
The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
​
https://preview.redd.it/ydhdh09bbif61.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=2130b984b7228140b0a17d05759752e7a8a09a87
​
It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
​
https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player
​
Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
​
​
For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
​
https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/kab5kwvkbif61/player
​
Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
​
​

Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

​
As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
​
https://preview.redd.it/ymqekb5nbif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61bc935642ddc713da5a866d8bc8fea123ea1dbf
​
When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
​
https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/eopgbempbif61/player
​
While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
​
​
I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
​
https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/meu60dlrbif61/player
​
Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
​
​

Examining the first matchup:

​
Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
​
When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
​
https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player
​
Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
​
​

What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
​
For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
​
https://preview.redd.it/enx2gsi8eif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=1de643c848aefd212231c5e7a3059c580c0967b7
​
​
On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
​
​

X-factors:

​
https://preview.redd.it/3hthyyz2cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=05ce975ec5a0319694f3e404cce356c9e82c60c4

Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/tof7xfc4cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=acd57311d38bd8217491b102f927017514a6b1bd

Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
​
​

Prediction:

​
On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
​
https://preview.redd.it/njt5v586cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c20c0b875bf0f9fb7d19841500f93ec8ad78f42
​

Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

​
So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
​
​
If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

Game Matchups Preview Playoff Round #1: Bills vs. Colts

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 17th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Colts. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, this is the longest post I have written by a large amount. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Colts’ Passing Defense
Trivia, which QBs finished 2020 Top 5 in all the following categories; Completion %, Pass Yards, Pass TDs, Pass 1st Downs, Pass Y/A, Passer Rating, and QBR? Josh Allen, that’s it, that’s the entire list. Allen’s remarkable season is one that quieted a lot of skeptics in 2020, most of whom were rightly skeptical, and will likely earn him one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history. The massive improvements by the Bills’ QB were amplified by a dominate group of receivers with unique skill sets. Stefon Diggs is arguably the best all around WR in the NFL right now, Cole Beasley is the best Slot WR in the NFL, John Brown is an oft-overlooked weapon about to be unleashed, Gabe Davis is one of the more promising young offensive weapons in the NFL, and Isaiah McKenzie is a human Swiss Army Knife that consistently expands the box. The Bills have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the passing attack is the primary reason why.
Against the Colts the Bills’ Pass Offense will need to find a way to deal with an offshoot of the popular Cover 2 scheme. At a high-level Cover 2 is a zone scheme with two deep safeties. In the first few games of the season the Bills rarely saw two deep safety sets with teams testing Josh Allen’s ability to hit the deep ball, but after torching opposing offenses over that span future opposition took note and shifted multiple players deep in order to avoid a barrage of big throws by the Bills. The Colts’ Defensive Coordinator, Matt Eberflus, is an expert of this concept and also a sub concept known as Tampa 2. YouTuber Zach Hicks has a good breakdown of this concept if you want to see it in video format, but at a high level Tampa 2 is the same as a Cover 2 except that on a pass play one of the LBs is generally responsible for the deep middle of the field meaning 3 players are generally protecting against the deep ball. What makes the Colts so proficient at this type of defense is a well-rounded 2nd level that starts with a superstar at LB.
Have you heard of Darius Leonard? If not, you are about to. This “Maniac” was named first team All-Pro his rookie season after being drafted 36th overall by the Colts in the 2018 NFL Draft. Coming into this analysis I had Leonard marked as an incredible run defender with quite possibly the best instincts in the NFL but after watching some film on this guy I realized he is also one of the best zone defending LBs there is. In 2019 Leonard had 5 Interceptions, 4 of which came as the middle zone defender and 1 while man covering an RB. Against the Bills Leonard will be especially dangerous due to his exceptional abilities as a QB spy that when coupled with his instincts and zone coverage capabilities makes him as close to a perfect Josh Allen counter as you will find. This will be the determining factor in whether or not the Colts will be able to slow down the Bills’ vaunted passing attack, slow that down and the Colts will win this running away.
Behind Leonard is a solid stable of DBs, all of whom will provide unique challenges for the Bills. The primary outside corner is former Minnesota Vikings 1st rounder Xavier Rhodes who has built an 8-year career off being an exceptionally physical corner. Rhodes excels most with his hands on a receiver so even in the Colts’ Cover 2 expect him to press the WR lined up in front of him. The other outside position is predominantly controlled by 2nd year CB Rock Ya-Sin but because of an injury he will miss Saturday’s game and be replaced by 30-year old T.J. Carrie. While less talented than Rhodes, Carrie plays a similar style and within the Colts’ defense is playing the best football of his 7-year career. But the most dangerous CB on the Colts’ roster is their slot CB, one of the best in the NFL, Kenny Moore. Moore has exceptional instincts and out of the slot can read his primary responsibility while simultaneously providing help to his outside CBs. The last portion of this secondary are the safeties, Julian Blackmon and Khari Willis, both of whom can force game changing plays in the event any opposing QB tries to test them over the top.
With the key to the Bills’ offense being their ability to move the ball through the air this matchup could ultimately determine the first round of the playoffs. Diggs, Brown, and Davis will all be pressed by outside CBs who they will need to beat if the Bills even want to consider taking a deep shot. In the slot it remains to be seen if Cole Beasley will be good to go, though it is looking promising, but regardless if the slot is him, Stills, McKenzie, or even Roberts all may struggle against Kenny Moore. Brian Daboll will need to come prepared with his best playbook to beat this defense while all the weapons will need to execute if the Bills intend to host another playoff game.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Colts’ Rushing Defense
89 times this season a player has rushed for 100+ yards in a game. Out of the 32 NFL teams only 4 of them did not have such a player, the Panthers, Chargers, Seahawks…and Bills. A stunning turn of events for a Bills’ team that has not finished outside the Top 10 in rushing yards since 2014 has seen them fall to 20th this season averaging just 107.7 Y/G. And don’t blame the shift to a pass first offense as the primary reason for this as the Bills’ rank 19th in Y/A at just 4.2 with their top two RBs, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, at just 4.4 and 4.3 respectively. I’ve wrote about this in past “Matchup Preview” posts, that the issue is best described by the fact that out of the 51 NFL players with 100+ rushing attempts Devin Singletary ranks 49th (1.5) and Zack Moss ranks 43rd (1.8) in Yards Before Contact (YBC). This points to two root causes; RBs not hitting the hole fast enough or poor OL blocking, and while I believe both are part of the problem to me it is the latter that is the predominant issue.
The Colts run a 4-3 scheme meaning in their base package there are 4 DL and 3 LB but with the current state of the NFL most teams “Base” is actually their Nickel Package (1 LB is replaced by a DB). This is important to note in the context of the Bills running the ball because with the Colts predominately in Nickel the Bills may have success running the ball outside the tackles. To help visualize what it will look like picture the package where Tremaine Edmunds is flanked by one of A.J. Klein or Matt Milano. Ultimately this presents a situation where a defense becomes fully reliant on their DEs maintaining contain so that their LBs can scrape down the line and make a play on the ball carrier. In the worst case, where contain is blown and LBs can’t get to the ball carrier, a defenses reliance shifts to their CBs coming off a WR block or a safety coming down field and making a tackle in the open field. The Colts have the players in the secondary to accomplish this which is one reason why they are one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
While this section lends itself to be just another breakdown of Darius Leonard, he was covered in detail in the passing section of this post so instead the the emphasis here is on the Colts’ DL. This is a DL which is headlined by ex-49er, the 2016 #7 overall pick DeForest Buckner. While Buckner primarily excels as a Pass Rusher (9.5 Sacks this Season) he is also a great run defender capable of using his large frame (6’7”, 240lb) and a great stable of moves to wreak havoc against the run. Next to him at Nose Tackle is Grover Stewart the 4th year man out of Albany State. Stewart plays and looks more massive than his 315lb listing and is meant to be a plug in the middle that takes up 2 interior linemen. On the outside is a 4-man rotation (In order of Snap %) of Denico Autry, Justin Houston, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and Tyquan Lewis. Autry and Houston are vets that primarily rush the passer while Muhammad and Lewis excel more against the run. Yet, the more you look at this DL and their rotations the more you come to realize it is eerily similar to the Bills, albeit a more successful version against the run.
Running the ball against the Colts will be a tough task for this Bills’ team as the Colts rank 2nd in the NFL in Rush Y/A Against (3.7) while playing the likes of Dalvin Cook, the Ravens, Derrick Henry (x2), and Josh Jacobs. Most the of praise is owed to Leonard, and MLB Anthony Walker, but the whole of the defense is a highly disciplined unit that consistently does their 1/11th in order to dominate the defensive side of the ball. The one area where the Bills may be able to expose the Colts is via a run that is technically a pass, the McKenzie “Push Pass”. I expect this play to be run multiple times on Saturday and if I were to set an OveUnder on it I’d give out 2.5. Running this to the opposite side of Buckner should find success and if it does should slow down the outside pass rush of the Colts.
EDGE: Colts 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Colts’ Passing Offense
Coming into this analysis I hypothesized that a reason for the Bills’ struggles against the pass was that teams were throwing against the Bills far more in 2020 than they had in previous seasons. After all, the Bills’ offense was so prolific this season that more often than in a long-time, teams were playing from behind against the Bills. Turns out the 573 Passing Attempts against the Bills this season was only 20 more than the 553 from 2019 and remarkably the same number of pass attempts against as 2017. Digging deeper I found that even though the Bills had given up the same number of 300 yard passing games in 2020 (5) that they had from 2017 to 2019 their Passer Rating against was not drastically different. In fact their passer ratings against over the past 4 seasons were; 78.9 (2017), 82.6 (2018), 78.8 (2019), and 86.9 (2020) while the league wide Passer Rating over the same span followed a similar trend being 86.9 (2017), 92.9 (2018), 90.4 (2019), and 93.6 (2020). Turns out the Bills’ pass defense didn’t really regress all too much and in fact is still one of the most dominant units in the NFL, peaking at the perfect time.
And in the first round of the playoffs the Bills will play a team which I describe as a Run First team that really likes to throw the ball. What does that mean exactly? The Colts did run the ball (459) less than they passed (552) so doesn’t that make them a pass first team? Technically yes, but with only 371 of those passes being completed and 114 of those going to RBs the Colts either ran or had an RB touch the ball on an astounding 69% of “completed” offensive plays. For context the leading rusher in the NFL was Derrick Henry of the Titans where they ran or had an RB touch the ball on just 66.8% of those plays. Moral of this all is exactly what was stated, Run First but love to pass, but make no mistake about it, when the Colts need to air the ball out, they do have some weapons to do so.
The Colts have 3 good WRs and 3 solid TEs giving them high level depth in the passing game. By now every NFL fan knows T.Y. Hilton who has been one of the best deep threats in the NFL for just under a decade and though 31 still put up over 750 yards with a 13.6 Y/R in 2020. Opposite him is Zach Pascal who is in the 3rd year of his career and while unlike T.Y. in stature, coming in at 6’2” 215lb, is like him in that he is primarily a deep threat at this point in his career. The last WR of note is by far the most intriguing, 2nd round rookie Michael Pittman Jr. A player that was at times mocked to the Bills, Pittman is a massive receiver at 6’4” 225lb and has 4.5s 40yd speed. At moments he has looked unguardable for the Colts in 2020 but has a long way to go to reach his full potential, though he seems fully capable of it. At TE the Colts’ 3-man rotation is Jack Doyle, Mo Allie-Cox, and Trey Burton. Each of them is 6’2” 230lb or bigger and have at least 20 receptions with the 3 of them accounting for a total of 82 catches. These guys aren’t’ just redzone threats either, though they do account for 8 TDs, they are also big-time weapons in the middle of the field moving the sticks a combined 46 times.
Throwing all those guys the ball will be the walking HOF-litmus test, Phillip Rivers. At 39 years old he has without a doubt lost a bit of zip on his throws but still was able to put up over 4000 passing yards and complete 68% of his passes. One very interesting stat of note is that Rivers, and the Colts, has only played 3 outdoor games north of Tennessee this season. In those games Rivers completed 60.4% of his passes, had a 2:3 TD:INT Ratio, and a passer rating of 81.2. In all other games Rivers completed 69.6% of his passes, had a 22:8 TD:INT Ratio, and a passer rating of 100.4. Needless to say the weather in Buffalo will have a major impact on the outcome of the game Saturday but if you don’t think Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and the rest of the Bills’ secondary will also have an impact, well…just wait.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Colts’ Rushing Offense
The Buffalo Bills’ ability to stop the run will ultimately be the reason they have a successful or unsuccessful playoff run. If you believe in Dualism the Buffalo Bills’ run defense should improve your ability to debate it. The Bills have had 8 (5-3) games where the opponent rushed for 100+ yards, for an average of 167.6, and 8 (8-0) games where the opponent has rushed for under 100 yards, for an average of 71.6 Y/G. The crazy thing about this is that there is no tangible pattern, not competition, not location of game, not injuries, the Bills are simply just really good or really bad against the run. This week they can’t afford to be bad against it.
To fully understand just how integral RBs are to the Colts’ offense see the analysis of their Pass Offense above. This Colts’ team by all measures had 4 solid RBs rostered going into the start of the 2020 season with Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins but when Mack popped his ACL in Week 1 the Colts were forced to scramble. Over the next few weeks, they would rely most on rookie Jonathan Taylor to carry the load on the ground but saw mixed results. By Week 8 Wilkins was out carrying Taylor and by Week 10 both Wilkins and Hines were. And then something happened, and this something happened to the Colts’ play calls and to Taylor who quickly shifted into the monster from Wisconsin. Over his final 6 games Taylor rushed 119 times (19.8 G) for 741 (123.5 Y/G) which is a Y/A of 6.2. At the end of the day Taylor is who a lot of draft experts thought he would be, a dominant all around back that can single handedly change games. Don’t get it twisted though Bills Mafia, Nyheim Hines will also play an integral role for the Colts’ offense on Saturday.
But the talent at RB is one thing, the talent on the OL is a whole different monster. Working from right to left this week at RT is Braden Smith a 2nd round pick that has been a 3-year starter for the Colts. Smith is a freak of a human at 6’6” 315lb giving him the ability to toss opposing defenders around at will though the one knock on him is his slow dissection of incoming blitzes. At RG is Mark Glowinski a 6-year vet who like Braden Smith has power to spare but lacks elite quickness, yet he still exceeds the description of proficient RG. Then there are the big boys. At Center is Ryan Kelly who just earned his 2nd consecutive Pro Bowl nod as one of the best Centers in the NFL. An incredible blocking center and a master of dissecting opposing defenses Ryan Kelly is not only himself great, but he also makes the QB under him and the OL to the left and right of him better every single play. LG Quenton Nelson. 3 years into his career, 3 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pros (and possibly a 3rd on the way), is it absurd to call a player a HOF 3 years into his career? Not for Nelson. This kid is a monstrosity that will control not only who is in front of him, but he will throw that man back into an LB like they are a rag doll. So, the Colts have 4 good to incredible OL, until we get to their LT. Starting LT Anthony Castonzo hit IR after an ankle injury in practice on Christmas Eve and was replaced by retired Jared Veldheer against the Jaguars. This is the only question mark for the Colts’ OL but if Veldheer can even play at 75% of his pre-retirement level he should provide suitable protection on the left side of the line.
The old adage is control the trenches and you control the game. While I 100% agree with that statement I don’t think that is the key to this matchup. Whatever the Bills’ DL looks like this week will obviously need to do their job up front and make a play or two, and I’m especially excited to see what Ed Oliver and A.J. Epenesa will do this week. For me though, the LBs and Jordan Poyer are the entire key to this matchup. I fully expect Poyer in the box more often this game than we have seen all season allowing the Bills to put their Best Big Nickel (Foot) forward. Stop the run in whatever way you can and force Rivers to beat you through the air means the Bills will be stunting at whatever gap they can to force the young Taylor to try to bounce to an opening. For me this game will not determine my feelings on Tremaine Edmunds but will go a long way in deciding his future. Edmunds must make multiple big plays this week, and if he does, I’d fully expect McDermott to hand him the game ball regardless of how the offense plays.
EDGE: Colts 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Colts’ Special Teams
It is officially no longer hyperbole to say that the Buffalo Bills have the best Special Teams group in the NFL. The Bills’ primary return man, Andre Roberts (Pro Bowl, #1-NFL Kick Y/R, #7-NFL Punt Y/R) got a rest on Sunday resulting in backup return man, Isaiah McKenzie, bringing a punt 84 yards to the house for the Bills. That was the Bills first Punt Return TD since Marcus Thigpen did so on December 14, 2014. At Punter is the Bills’ second most improved player of 2020, Corey Bojorquez. Of punters who played all 16 games Bojo finished with the least punts (41) but lead the league in Punt Average (50.8), had the longest punt in the NFL (72), and finished 5th in Net Punt Average (44.0). Outside of one bad punt against the Cardinals, Bojo had just about as good as season as a punter can have. Last is the single season record holder for Points by a Buffalo Bills’ player, rookie Kicker Tyler Bass. Bass drilled 57 of 59 PATs (Possibly 58) and 28 of 34 FGs finishing the season with 141 points. It is also worth noting that the Bills finished 7th in the NFL in Opponent Average Drive Start (Own 26.6) primarily because of Bass’ ability to control the location of his high arced kicks resulting in the NFL’s second-best Kick Y/R Against (17.9). Bass is just another weapon on a team filled with them.
The Colts also have one of the better special teams’ groups in the NFL. The Colts go about returns differently than the Bills using one player primarily for Kicks and another primarily for Punts. Handling Kick Returns is 2020 6th round pick Isaiah Rodgers who is averaging 28.8 Y/R which includes a 101-yard return for a TD in Week 5. Small in stature at 5’10, 170lb Rodgers has barn burning speed (4.28 40yd) and has the ability to return kicks for big yardage which may alter the Bills’ “Short-Kick” strategy on Saturday. Handling Punts is dynamic RB Nyheim Hines who has a Y/R of 10.0 and a long of just 26 implying consistent positive gains on Punt Returns. Punting for the Colts is Rigoberto Sanchez, who also handles kickoffs, ranks 14th in Punt Average (46.2) and 19th in Punt Net Average (40.0) giving up just 7.5 Y/R. At kicker for the Colts is another rookie, Rodrigo Blankenship. Blankenship is having a similar season to Bass missing just 5 FGs and 2 XPs but looks to be a kicker that will spend a long time in the NFL.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Colts matchup surprisingly well against the Buffalo Bills, probably more so than they would have against any other team in the AFC playoffs, outside of maybe the Browns. On defense the Colts should without a doubt stop the Bills’ RBs from moving the ball on the ground which means the Bills’ ability to score points will come down to how often Josh Allen and the Bills’ receivers can beat the Colts’ secondary. More importantly for the Colts is how many turnovers their defense, which ranks 5th in Takeaways, can force. With the way that Josh Allen and the Bills are playing right now it seems the only way to beat them is to take the ball away from them and keep it away, the Colts can do that.
On offense the matchup is even better for the Colts. The Bills struggle against the run and while they have at times shown the ability to successfully defend against it their inconsistency will be a problem against one of the hottest RBs in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor. Colts’ fans know that they will be getting some yardage on the ground and while how much, and how many TDs, remains to be seen the consistent movement of the ball in this fashion is paramount. If successful, the Colts will take time off the clock and keep the ball away from Josh Allen. In the event the Colts must throw the ball they will likely be testing the Bills’ LBs with throws to their TEs and RBs allowing them to avoid the Bills’ highly talented secondary. All of this spells points for Indy, less time for the Bills’ offense, and the possibility of stealing this game in Buffalo.
Why We Will Win
Talk about broken records? “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team” Saturday. How many times did we get to say that in 2020? On offense it really hasn’t mattered the talent level of the defense in front of the Bills; Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, Lee Smith, Reggie Gilliam…Ok I’ll stop but they have all shredded opposition through the air. And let’s not forget the RBs, sure the Bills have struggled on the ground this season but have flashed big play potential with both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them has another Saturday. This offense will put up points regardless of who is on the other side of the ball and have proven that time in time again this season.
On defense here is the deal, the Bills should completely stymie Phillip Rivers in the cold air of Buffalo. When I say “stymie”, I mean that when he must throw the Bills should be all over the ball and if he tries to fit one in a tight window take it away. I’ll put money on it that the Bills have at least one interception Saturday and might even drop the same bet on two because the Colts will HAVE to throw the ball. When they can avoid throwing, they will run and run again which is something Bills’ fans should be fearful of. But remember those 6 games where Jonathan Taylor had success which we discussed in the Colts’ Rushing Offense section of this post? The 6 defenses he played over that span ranked 18th (GNB), 30th (HOU), 28th (LVR), 30th (HOU), 5th (PIT), and 24th (JAX) by Run Defense DVOA. The Buffalo Bills rank better than all but one of those teams coming in at 17. This is the Bills’ game to win.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Colts 20
When the Bills made the playoffs last season, I predicted they would win the game, and they should have. But that team was different than this one. This team isn’t coming to the playoffs to win just one game, this team is angry, this team is afraid of no one, and they are the hottest team in the NFL. This year there’s no “Foot off the pedal”, there’s no “Worrying about Common Sense”, there’s no Overtime. There’s just a Buffalo Bills’ team that wants much more than a “Fine and Dandy” hat and shirt. Your Buffalo Bills are coming for everyone and everything and it all starts on Saturday with 6700 fans greeting them in a stadium that will sound like it has 100,000 in it. Paraphrasing the great Steve Tasker, buckle up Colts, “It might be Chilly”.
EDIT 1: Corrected Titans to Colts in Bills Rushing Offense section (Thank you some_random_noob)
submitted by UberHansen to buffalobills [link] [comments]

They Called It: Analysts who Foresaw Boom Performances... and those who didn't (Week 8)

Hey y'all!
As I'm sure is common knowledge, FantasyPros offers ECR (expert consensus rankings) every week. Some experts appear as outliers in these rankings—for example, Seth Klein of Fantrax ranked Adam Thielen 23rd this week—and sometimes, they're entirely correct. This post highlights the experts who totally fuckin' nailed it on this week's biggest boom performances.
All figures from PPR leagues.

Boom Performances

Matthew Stafford (QB4, 28.44). What a week for Matty S, who dragged the Lions to within twenty points of the Colts! This was an awesome week for Kevin Scott of The Intersecting, who ranked Stafford as the QB6—ten spots over the ECR.
DeeJay Dallas (RB5, 22.8). DeeJay Dallas just DeeJay Dicked the San Francisco 49ers, scoring twice en route to an RB1 performance. Dallas' biggest believer was Scott Engel of RotoBaller, who slotted the Seahawks RB in at RB21. This deviated +19 over the ECR.
Giovani Bernard (RB4, 22.8). Joe Mixon, Richard Nixon, Destiny Dixon idgaf, Bernard better than all of 'em. And my lad WALTER B.D. CHEREPINSKY called this one. His reasoning behind this prediction? "Giovani Bernard can be started with Joe Mixon is out again." [sic]
Robert Woods (WR3, 28.4). Robert "distributing dat" Wood(s) engaged in beastiality this week, taking the Dolphins for 7/85/1 and a rushing score. This lad Kevin Scott, who also called Stafford's breakout week, must be sippin' the fine cognac tonight! (Or whatever fantasy analysts can afford, so probably watered-down absinthe)
Corey Davis (WR5, 26.8). I know what you're thinking. Listen – do not pick up Corey Davis. He will fuck you. He will bend you over, open up a 55-gallon drum of lube, proceed not to use it and fuck you. That being said, my guy Isaiah Sirois, who had him a shit week last time around, pleasantly slotted in Davis as his WR22, +11 over the ECR. Nice call!

Bust Performances

I'm sure one of you out there started all four of these players. Take a good look at yourself, consider where you went wrong, then drown your sorrows in laboratory-grade ethanol.
Josh Allen (QB20, 12.46). Not the greatest week for Josh Allen. Now that people are low on him, I finally feel comfortable stating that he does not look good in shorts. His calves look like listless hotdogs and I don't like it. Neither does Zachary Hanshew of FantasyPros, who damn near nailed his ranking of Allen at QB19. Great work bromigo!
Jonathan Taylor (💩, 5.1). Unbelievable. In a week where Taylor was ranked as the RB4 overall, he watches Wilkins get 20 carries while taking his 13 touches for 29 yards. Who else would call this but WALTER, who slotted him in at RB11, -7 from the ECR.
D.J. Moore (WR48, 7.5). Say it with me: WALTER B.D. GODDAMN CHEREPINSKY! Unreal! He slotted in D.J. Moore as his WR27 this week, -13 from the ECR. The man may be #137 in accuracy (out of about 137), but fuck me if he doesn't make ballsy calls!
Diontae Johnson (fuck you, <2). You can blame shitty injury luck all you want, but at some point you gotta look to the common denominator. You. It's you. You suck at fantasy football. You are still reading this while being belittled – do you like that, you dirty pig baby bitch? You masochist. Who called this bust? Simply Walter, who slotted Johnson in at WR46, twenty spots below the ECR. What a week.

Miss of the Week

Until he gives me a reason not to, this section is dedicated to whoever ranked Davante Adams the lowest. This week it was simply KJ of Fantasy Team Advice, who ranked Davante at 13... Julio Jones at 19... Tyler Boyd at 32... and also Tee Higgins at 35. All four were -12 behind the ECR. Incidentially, the three analysts who ranked Davante Adams the lowest are #143, #144, and #149 in accuracy. How's that going for y'all, bitches?
Enjoy your Sunday night!
submitted by SontagWrong to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

I re-watched every Bucs game's highlights from this year. Here's the highlights from my notes.

Week 1 @ Saints L 34-23
Brady will QB sneak even if it's a full 2 yards.
defense is aggressive, gets burned by screens and double moves
brady lacks zip – pick-six on out-route
McCoy gets beat bad in pass protection
Week 2 vs. Panthers W 31-17
Led 21-0, but lead was cut to 21-14 with Panthers driving, when Bridgewater throsws a pick.
McCoy drops TD - so he's getting benched...
Week 3 @ Broncos (Driskel) W 28-10
They really love Evans in the red zone - two TDs
Driskel is awful
brady likes to underthrow/backshoulder – DBS need to get head around
Week 4 vs. Chargers W 38-31
Herbert beats zone deep (to a psquad wR)
brady lacks zip, pick-six on out route
ugh, Herbert is good.
Chargers take 24-7 first half lead. Then a fumble inside their 10 when they are just running out the half – Evans red zone TD
The key is the Bucs interior O-line. They are a wall and Brady can step up in the pocket. It's not a big area, he's not fast enough to go anywhere else. Get there and you can really disrupt him, but they do a great job protecting it.
Chargers flea-flicker does not work, nowhere to throw at all. DBs Not fooled.
chargers punt on 4th in 1 with 7 to play when losing and being torched for the last 20 minutes.
Week 5 @Bears (Thursday) (Foles) L 20-19
The Brady forgot what down it was game (they don't include this in the highlights, SMH)
Foles torching them with throws along sideline, especially in improv moments.
EVans red zone TD
Kyle Fuller murders a guy (Brady with the assist) https://youtu.be/avI2_Bc8sYo?t=490
Bears offense not impressive, but they win anyway
Bucs get ball under 3 minutes, up 19-17, just need a couple first down – get to 3rd and 12 – rough 3-and-out
Brady forgets what down it is. Woof. PAst his bEd tImE.
Week 6 – Packers W 38-10
Rodgers takes big hit as he goes in for a TD (kinda) to make it 10-0. They don't score again, so I wonder if that hit has anything to do with it. https://youtu.be/LtAD1jLuSFc?t=106
Rodgers doesn't step into throw, little zip – pick six. Next drive, Rodgers throws another near pick-six (returned almost for a TD), but the play should either have been blown dead for neutral zone infraction or false start and shouldn't have counted: https://youtu.be/LtAD1jLuSFc?t=208
Another red zone, another Evans staredown, but it's not there, throws somewhere else.
Horrific rb pass pro leads to sack on Rodgers: https://youtu.be/LtAD1jLuSFc?t=336
Brady underthrows deep ball for easy PI https://youtu.be/LtAD1jLuSFc?t=528
Dbs need to get head around
Week 7 - @ Raiders W 45-20
Was 24-20 in the 4th Raiders have tipped pass interception, gets out of hand in the last 8 minutes. But was closer than final score appears.
Brady loves to take deep shots to Scotty Miller, lay it out for him to catch up to it, while with Evans/Godwin he tends to put it high or back-shoulder, let them go up and get it/be physical.
Week 8 @ Giants (1-6) (MNF) W- 25-23
Giants try a WR throwback, secondary doesn't bite, nobody open downfield it seems. (Trick plays are just not working on this secondary it seems)
The dumpoff to Rbs are wide open and Brady takes them so often. How are you not keying on those at all? (season long, not just a giants problem)
Jones throws horrific INT – Bucs first play after is predictably is a play-action deep shot to go for the jugular (not there takes dump off)
red zone – gronk TD, Evans for the 2 (defended)
red zone - 1st and goal, throw to Evans.
Tons of room for Jones to scramble, he mostly doesn't take it.
Giants score to pull within 2- don't get the 2 and game ends. Bucs easily could have lost this game.
Week 9 – Saints Huge game, Saints already beat them, division title basically on the line - L 38-3
https://youtu.be/T3MDyQ9nrV8?t=41 – secondary tooo aggressive, bites on a short route to Kamara, leaves another receiver wiiiide open in end zone.
Jared Cook fumbles at the Bucs 2 as Saints are going to go up 14-0, instead, turnover.
its 21-0 Saints before Bucs get a first down (and they had a drive end in a fumble at the 2, easily could have been 28-0 before Bucs had a single first down)
They get a first down! Then a tipped ball at the line is intercepted. Saints go up 28-0
Brady throws bad pick, no idea what's going on
if you can get Brady to scramble instead of having his office in the pocket, it is not pretty. Ditto
Bucs settle for fg while down 38-0 and 6 minutes to go in game - woof
Bucs set NFL record for fewest rushes in a game with 5 which includes a Blaine Gabbert kneel down.
Absolutely embarassing loss in the biggest game on their regular season calendar.
Week 10 – @Panthers W 46-23
Another Evans – Red zone TD
Bucs lead 20-17, 7 minutes into 3rd, Panthers have been leading, but it's back-and-forth. Panthers pin the Bucs on their own 2 with a punt. Whole game turns on this as RoJo has a 98 yard td run, then Bridgewater is hit as he throws and picked on the first play of the next drive (settle for FG, but then its 29-17). Then Panthers run fake punt, fail, hand them another short field, held to another FG. 32-17.
Bridgewater then leaves game, Bucs win 46-23, but it's down to this AWFUL 3rd quarter. Could have been a much closer game.
Week 11 – Rams (MNF) past Brady's bEd TiMe! L 27-24
Brady throws a duck, not picked somehow : https://youtu.be/EeWXw6UuPrM?t=63
Another Evans red zone TD
Bucs D made Goff look good. Cooper Kuff feasted on YAC
Goff throws WTF pick, Bucs held to FG (tie at 17), Rams respond with missed fg
Brady horrible pick
Brady sacked and then hit on back to back plays: https://youtu.be/EeWXw6UuPrM?t=448 both just a 4 man rush getting home.
https://youtu.be/EeWXw6UuPrM?t=493 – brady pass batted down, he catches it and throws it again?
Goff pick – short field, Bucs TD to tie it at 24 with only 4 minutes to play.
Rams FG to take 27-24 lead, giving ball back to Brady with 2+ minutes left, down 3, he promptly throws a terrible pick to lose the game: https://youtu.be/EeWXw6UuPrM?t=631
Week 12 – Chiefs - L 27-24
Chiefs get cute in the red zone: https://youtu.be/j9hlfqaw4i8?t=32 have to settle for fg on opening drive (at the 2)
Tyreek bomb for TD on first play: https://youtu.be/j9hlfqaw4i8?t=82
Bucs 3 and out, another quick punt.
Kelce with the hook and ladder fake out: https://youtu.be/j9hlfqaw4i8?t=122
Now they try man: https://youtu.be/j9hlfqaw4i8?t=140 Tyreek beats em again.
17-0 after 3 drives.
4th KC drive gets inside the Bucs 10, ends in a Mahomes strip-sack – Fisher gets beat bad and quickly. If not for this, could easily be 24-0 after 4 drives.
https://youtu.be/j9hlfqaw4i8?t=247 – horrific chiefs tackling lets them score way too easily
Chiefs eat the clock to end the half and get a FG, leaving no time for Brady to come back at them – 20-7 at half. Bucs get ball to start 2nd half, go down to red zone, stall for a 26 yard fg. 20-10
https://youtu.be/j9hlfqaw4i8?t=384 – Chiefs respond by hitting Tyreek again for a TD (27-10). Chiefs over 450 yards of offense 8 minutes into the 3rd quarter. (on pace for 700+ yards for the game).
Brady responds by throwing up a prayer when pressured, picked by Breeland: https://youtu.be/j9hlfqaw4i8?t=416
Brady pressured, throws a terrible pass that's “tipped” because it hits Dirty Dan in the forehead at the line of scrimmage: https://youtu.be/j9hlfqaw4i8?t=444 picked by Tyrannasaurus
Chiefs go 3 and out thanks to a holding call and two leveon runs for 1 yard total.
27-10 in the 4th quarter – chiefs stop bringing blitzes, trying to rely on just 4 man pressure, Bucs go down and get a TD.
chiefs run out the last 4 miuntes (with quite a few passes).
Week 13 bye
Narrative is that they figured out all their problems in this bye, haven't lose since. Let's see how that plays out.
Week 14 – Vikings W 26-14 Vikings go down and score, but miss XP, next drive missed 36yd fg – should be 10-0, instead 6-0
7-6 – then Vikings miss 54 yard field goal
Evans targeted in red zone – PI call.
1 second left in half – they throw a hail mary, and the Vikings are called for PI on a hail mary... Bucs get a FG. Wow. Don't know if I've ever seen a pi call on a hail mary before.
17-6 Bucs, could be 14-13 Bucs (if not missed fg/xp, hail mary Pi) Bucs go down and score a TD on first drive, suddenly it's 23-6.
Vikings drive down to bucs 9 (23-14, 10 minutes to play) Bucs bring blitz, Cousins doesn't see it coming at all, takes bad sack/fumble (recovers) takes another sack, pushing all the way back to a 46 yarder and it's another miss.
26-14 final score, if not for kicking woes and that hail mary PI, instead of 26-14, we're looking at 23-23 tie in the 4th. Instead they win by 12. So don't just look at the score, this is a close game.
Week 15 @ Falcons W 31-27 (no Julio Jones mind you)
Matt Ryan has tons of time in the pocket or to scramble, Mahomes could feast if the line holds up this well.
Falcons bring only 4 (but a zone blitz, bringing a safety) and get immediate sack, fools o-line: https://youtu.be/nkzys5ARecw?t=126
Calvin Ridley roasting Murphy-Bunting – 14-0 Falcons lead.
Surprise S blitz and fools brady for a sack: https://youtu.be/nkzys5ARecw?t=227
Falcons up 17-0 at half (uh oh)
Trade Tds to start 2nd half 24-7
This isn't even a rub/pick, just bad D by the falcons in the red zone: https://youtu.be/nkzys5ARecw?t=440
Extremely close play, a forced fumble on Scotty Miller, but his knee was down a split second before, so it's no fumble on review: https://youtu.be/nkzys5ARecw?t=492 – Game changing split second.
Falcons offense dies in the 2nd half, letting Bucs just take over quickly goes from 24-7, to tied at 24.
Ridley feasting – 10, 163 yards, 1 td
https://youtu.be/nkzys5ARecw?t=604 – Look at that time in the pocket.....but TD pass is just barely broken up. Sad. Settle for FG,
Bucs respond with deep ball to Antonio Brown, take 31-27 lead.
Falcons respond with deep ball, nearly hit: https://youtu.be/nkzys5ARecw?t=687 To me, if that's Pat and Tyreek/Mecole/Sammy that's a 77 yard TD.
https://youtu.be/nkzys5ARecw?t=724 – look at Gronk and LT in pass block. Woof.
Bucs win 31-27. Really a squeaker, and the Falcons were without Julio (and a bang-bang turnover barely goes Bucs way).
*Week 16 @ Lions * W 47-7– Lions had like no coaching staff because of Covid (and firings), and Stafford is injured on the first drive, it's a Chase Daniel game. Bucs run away with it easily.
Week 17 Falcons W 44-27
Don't have a linebacker guard Godwin 1-on-1, now you know Atlanta.
Evans tweaks his knee, Brady hits hand on helmet on follow through on the same play. https://youtu.be/dly-nKcW-GA?t=186
Falcons fumble a qb/rb exchange for the 2nd time in the first half.
23-17 Bucs, 7 minutes into 3rd quarter. 23-20 to start 4th quarter -- again, final score is wayyy out of whack with game flow.
https://youtu.be/dly-nKcW-GA?t=741 – Bucs red zone d, 4th and goal at the 1, bites hard on the run, wide open play action to the TE.
Bucs LT decides not to block anyone? https://youtu.be/dly-nKcW-GA?t=764
Bucs up 3, 3rd and 12, at own 44, 5:32 to play. Hit a deep shot to Godwin. If incomplete, punting back to Falcons, up only 3. Instead, the pass is complete, they go down and score to make it a 10 point lead, then Falcons immediately turn the ball over and the final score is 44-27. If they don't hit that Godwin deep shot, you're looking at a totally different game.
Wild Card – @ a 7-9 Football Team W 31-23
Heiney – deflection/interception, pretty lucky for the Bucs, gives them short field, they get a TD. (9-0)
Heiney making plays, escaping pressure, eyes downfield, this dude is good. And that bucs pass rush can get him off his spot, but that doesn't mean it ruins the play (secondary can't hold up):
https://youtu.be/WrXfJJEu-Oc?t=106
https://youtu.be/WrXfJJEu-Oc?t=125
https://youtu.be/WrXfJJEu-Oc?t=140
https://youtu.be/WrXfJJEu-Oc?t=267 – is this one of the worst blitz calls you've ever seen? A safety blitzes from 10 yards off the line of scrimmage, takes 3 seconds to get even near Brady and by then the ball is out. Why?
https://youtu.be/WrXfJJEu-Oc?t=372 – Heiney escapes pressure, scrambles. This dude is good. Football team scores to make it 18-16 with 2 minute to go in 3rd (then misses a 2-pt).
HUGE play – Bucs up 28-16, 5min to go. IF you want to close out a win, you do it here. WFT 3rd and 10 at Bucs 11. No pass rush, burns Murphy-Bunting for a TD, pull within 5. 28-23. https://youtu.be/WrXfJJEu-Oc?t=509
Bucs get ball, can go win it with a TD, instead, settle for FG, which makes it an 8 point game (31-23) with 2:49 to play
Drives past midfield then stalls. So if they'd hit that 2 point conversion, the football team has the ball with 2:00 to play at midfield, down only 6. This is not a convincing win, especially given who is playing QB. He is good, don't get me wrong, but you'd think an elite defense wouldn't be beatable by a dude who was on the St. Louis Battlehawks like 10 months ago.
So the whole "Bucs figured everything out in the bye week" thing -- uhh, so after the bye they had close games with Vikings and Falcons, then blew out the coachless Lions, and beat up on the "ready for golf season" Falcons. 3 of those 4 games against teams that had already fired their coaches, and then they open the playoffs against a 7-9 team starting a nobody at QB. So yeah, this "streak" is not super impressive. The next two games are, but as we'll see, they aren't exactly big convincing wins either.
Divisional – @ Saints W 30-20 Brees throws basically a pick-six (returned to the 3), noodle arm.
Brady throws pick, dude just doesn't get feet down (but probably should have): https://youtu.be/elkS8MEHY0Q?t=270
https://youtu.be/elkS8MEHY0Q?t=430 – brady throws another probably-should-be interception
Even with Brees throwing basically a pick-six, with 4minutes left in 3rd quarter it's 20-13 Saints, Saints driving over mid-field when Jared Cook turns it over with a fumble. https://youtu.be/elkS8MEHY0Q?t=457
IF not for handing them the almost-pick-six, and if Jared Cook doesn't fumble (and this drive settles for FG), then it;s 23-6 to start the 4th quarter. Instead it's 20-20 game. Credit for forcing a fumble (though they are super random), not sure how much credit you get for Brees noodle arm (playing this year through 11 broken ribs and a partially torn rotator cuff, dude just doesn't have it anymore).
Another near pick from Brady: https://youtu.be/elkS8MEHY0Q?t=553
Brees throws the game with multiple picks. Saints are the better team, as we clearly saw in two games in the regular season. Bucs had the breaks and Brees noodle arm bail them out. If this is week 1, healthy brees (also we know now Michael Thomas has like multiple injuries needing off season surgery), then this is a Saints win.
NFCCG – @Packers W 31-26
Steal a possession before half, and then Packers D-coordinator runs a Greg Williams patented “fire me” defense and gives up an atrocious TD to end the half. A HUGE swing in the game.
Then Packers fumble and hand Bucs short field to start 2nd half, another TD. Again, you gotta force the fumble, credit where credit's due, but they are just so random (especially who recovers a fumble).
https://youtu.be/Gt6NsqMbByo?t=133 – The Bucs we torched are still torchable
https://youtu.be/Gt6NsqMbByo?t=149 - What percent of the time do you complete this? That's on 3rd down too, and they end up with a TD, that 50-50 ball is a 7 point swing.
Bucs runD is good between the tackles, but the outside stuff is open. Look for Jet sweeps and misdirection and not much runing between the tackles. They are big dudes and not that fast.
Packers just forcing it to Davante Adams in the redzone and failing.
Kinda surprised at Rodgers being a bit of a statue. He CAN move, but he is often sacked by not that much pressure, he just is not effectively moving around in the pocket or evading pressure. Staring down field and not that much pocket awareness it seems. Maybe having one of the best o-lines in the league made his pocket awareness skills rusty?
This game completely turns on the end of the first half, fumble to start first half. 14-17 point swing right there. Credit to the Bucs, but if you take care of business and don't turn the ball over, Packers win.
After obviously force feeding Davante Adams in the red zone all day, the Bucs decide to single-cover him and blitz and give him an easy TD.
failed 2 (bad drop by Equanimeous Tristan Imhotep J. St. Brown ), would have made the game 28-25, instead it's 28-23...
https://youtu.be/Gt6NsqMbByo?t=545 – Brady under pressure just flails the ball down field. He isn't even touched I don't think. Fallon d'flor material there.
Neither offense wants to do anything with it for most of the 4th quarter.
31-23, Packers stall in red zone..
https://youtu.be/Gt6NsqMbByo?t=635 – just run it – if you don't get in, go for it on 4th, if you fail to get that, you've at least pinned them deep. No you know what, let's try to force it to Adams again, they won't see that coming.
Overall, my big takeaways:
  1. Evans is the Red zone target, double the shit out of him.
  2. Get pressure on Brady, disguise blitzes, make that o-line adjust on the fly, often you can get pressure with exotic blitzes. If you pressure Brady he has barely any mobility, will not scramble, all you need to do is get him off his spot and his passer rating drops a ton.
  3. Bucs offense hits a lot of deep passes, and likes to go back-shouldeunder throw, and let their big physical receivers go up and get it OR get a PI call. DBs MUST turn their heads and look for balls. Brady throws picks or interceptable balls quite often if the DBs get their head around.
  4. Bucs offense is not very efficient. They might hit big plays, but they also go long stretches where they don't get anything done. They are still running the ball a lot on early downs instead of throwing (which is one of the biggest no-nos according to analytics).
  5. Bucs streak is largely down to strength of schedule dropping, and then quite a bit of luck in the playoffs. If not for Brees being a shadow of himself (And Michael Thomas hurt), the Saints should beat them. Brady throws 3 picks against Green Bay, but they win largely because of two flukey plays (the end of first half greg williams defense TD, and the start of 2nd half fumble).
  6. Bucs benefitted throughout the playoff run from a lot of short fields. Against just the Packers and Saints They have TD drives of 3, 8, 20, 40 yards. In the 16 other drives in those 2 games (excluding kneel downs), only 3 are TDs (51, 66, and 73 yards). So if you don't turn the ball over and give them a short field, they are not efficient and don't produce many long drives. For comparison, against just the Bills, the Chiefs had TD drives of 82, 80, 77, 75, and 58 yards. Chiefs do not need short fields, they are both explosive and efficient and sustain drives.
  7. Bucs offense has gotten more drives than the Chiefs. Credit to their defense...though they played the corpse of Drew Brees, a St. Louis Battlehawk, and the Packers playing not to lose... But you look at a drive chart and you see lots of punting back and forth, or trading interceptions.
Bucs across 3 games: 2.96 points per drive
Chiefs across both playoff games (only Mahomes drives, no Henne): 4.3 points/drive
Chiefs had only 8 possessions against the Bills (including one which was Hardman fumbling, so the offense only had 7, excluding kneel downs/clock killing), and Mahomes had only 6 against the Browns (team had 8 total). Through 8 drives against Bills, Chiefs had 38 points, through 6 against Browns with Mahomes, they had 22 points.
Bucs had 12, 10, and 10 drives (excluding kneel downs/clock killing). They're getting more possessions...again, credit to their defense...but look at opponents as well.
Through first 8 possesions, the Bucs had 18, 20, and 28 points in their 3 playoff games. And the 28 includes the Scotty MilleGreg Williams atrocious half-ender, and an 8 yard td "drive."
So if you hear people say the Bucs should limit the total number of possessions, just remember, if there are only 8 possessions each, in Mahomes 7 playoff games so far, through the first 8 possessions, they average 28 points scored (38, 22, 24, 35, 34, 21, 24). Bucs in their three playoff games are averaging 22 points scored through their first 8 possessions.
Brady, last 7 playoff games (age 41, 42, 43 seasons) 165/271 60.8%, 288 yards per game, 9 Tds, 7 Ints, rating 84.4
Mahomes in 7 playoff games in career: 165/252, 65.4%, 293 yards per game, 17 Tds, 2 Int, rating 109.8
submitted by jeffp12 to KansasCityChiefs [link] [comments]

nfl week 4 picks ats score predictions video

NFL Week 4 ATS Picks for the 2019-2020 Football Season ... NFL Week 4 PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD, OVER/UNDER, UPSET ... 2019 WEEK 4 NFL PICKS!! - YouTube Bet On It - NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 4, Line ... NFL Week 4 Picks ATS 2019 - YouTube NFL Week 4 Score Predictions 2020 (NFL WEEK 4 PICKS ... Week 4 NFL Game Picks! - YouTube

NFL picks of the week. Free NFL expert picks for every NFL game of the season. Including NFL Picks Against The Spread, Moneyline, Points Totals. NFL expert picks, predictions for Week 4, highlighted by Buffalo at Las Vegas, Pittsburgh at Tennessee, and Atlanta at Green Bay Experts, Results So Far Gill Alexander, VSIN: SU: 31-16-1 ATS Get our top NFL picks for every game of the 2020/21 season including our NFL picks against the spread. We dive into the data, betting trends, team news, and a lot more to bring you the best expert NFL picks each week. Check out our NFL predictions and NFL best bets pages for our top plays on today’s NFL games. NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for Week 4 By Kevin McGuire , 10/3/20, 12:00 PM EDT Carson Wentz and the winless Eagles are heavy road underdogs against the beat-up 49ers In our picks and predictions against the spread for Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season, Patrick Mahomes battles the Cam Newton-less Patriots while Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers stay Picks against the spread in Week 4 include the Seahawks, Predictions ATS, Denver and New York might be the NFL’s two worst teams in Week 4. Week 4 of the 2019 season is upon us, and we’ve got all of the NFL picks and score predictions you need to get through the upcoming weekend’s schedule. We’re only heading into Week 4, and the 2019 NFL season has already been nuts. NFL betting guide, handicapping statistics, ATS trends, odds, lines, game matchups, free NFL picks against the spread and predictions break down the top NFL betting sites The Week 4 NFL schedule is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score picks. NFL computer picks are computer-generated NFL outcomes that rely only on facts and figures to provide the top, unbiased stats-driven simulated NFL predictions for every game each week over the course of the entire NFL season. NFL computer picks are popular because football bettors trust the accuracy of a computer’s algorithm over human influence.

nfl week 4 picks ats score predictions top

[index] [1284] [5015] [2889] [270] [9194] [9783] [5445] [9609] [5220] [6572]

NFL Week 4 ATS Picks for the 2019-2020 Football Season ...

💰 In this week's episode of Bet On it direct from Las Vegas, Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, and Gianni "The Greek Gambler" break down NFL Week 4 from a sport... 2020 NFL Week 4 Spread Picks. NFL Week 4 Picks ATS. NFL Score Predictions Week 4. The Goat House Social Media Twitter https://twitter.com/GoatHouseNFL Inst... Big Ry and the Fat Guy make their picks ATS for Week 4.Make Your Picks For Week 4: https://forms.gle/G7UgzeeZKpb8hwBNALeaderboard on www.bigryandthefatguy.co... Week 4 NFL Game Picks! Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBu Check out our other channels: NFL Vault http://www.youtube.com/nflvault NFL Network http://www.y... In this edition of NFL 'Pick Em" we go over our Week 4 NFL Picks!! There are some interesting games heading into this week. After my worst ever week at 9-7 c... Locks Record 12-6 Upsets Record 3-2 2019 NFL Week 4 LOCKS. NFL Week 4 Picks ATS. NFL Score Predictions Week 4 Playoff Predictions, Mock Drafts, Bonus Videos ... NFL Week 4 ATS Picks for the 2019-2020 Football Season Visit My Other Pages My Twitter http://www.twitter.com/halfmooner2 My Personal Sports Site (Get The La...

nfl week 4 picks ats score predictions

Copyright © 2024 m.alltop100casinos.site