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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 30th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 30th, 2020.
Stocks on track to close out month of big gains as jobs data looms - (Source)
Stocks next week will come off one of their best months ever into a busy week of economic data and the ongoing tensions between the spreading virus and positive news on vaccines and treatments. Another highlight of the week is expected to be Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the Senate Banking Committee. They will be discussing the emergency measures taken to help the economy after the outbreak of the pandemic. The Dow was up nearly 13% for November so far, and if it holds its gains into Monday’s close, it will chalk up its best month since January, 1987. The S&P 500 closed at a record 3,638 and was up 11.3% for the month. The gain is its best performance since April’s 12.7%, which was the third best month for the S&P 500 since its origin in 1957. November was a big month also for market rotation, with investors favoring stocks that would benefit from a rebounding economy and showing less love for long-held favorites among big tech and internet names. Financials were up more than 17% in the past month, and industrials rose nearly 15%, as investors bet vaccines would help the economy return to normal next year. Tech notched a single digit gain for the month so far and lagged the broader market. But some strategists expect big tech and internet names, stay-at-home stocks, to fare better in December. “The death of big tech has been announced over and over again, and we see that the market doesn’t abandon them, but in fact migrates to big tech whenever there are concerns,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The post-pandemic question is whether big tech can co-exist with the small and mid-cap.” Small caps were one of the biggest winners in November, with the Russell 2000, up 20.6%. “We did not see major selling in Nasdaq,” as investors put funds in cyclicals and value, she said. Nasdaq was up 11.9% for the month so far, slightly better than the S&P 500. Experts have warned that there could an even bigger surge in virus cases, following the Thanksgiving holiday which could start to show up in the coming week. There have been more than 12.6 million cases in the U.S.
Jobs report
There are some important economic reports in the week ahead, the most important being Friday’s November employment report. There is is also ISM manufacturing data Tuesday. “My thought here is the data is going to matter because if you listen to the Fed, and if you read through the Fed’s minutes, they’re in transition here. They’re becoming more concerned about the rise in Covid cases, certainly about the lack of fiscal support,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. Strategists say another key report will be weekly jobless claims, which showed an increase in each of the last two weeks. “The employment data clearly has been weakening,” said Faranello. If it continues, it will keep a lid on Treasury yields, which move opposite prices. Jefferies economist Tom Simons expects the elimination of Census Bureau workers to detract from the job gains in November, and he forecasts the economy added just 340,000 jobs. “It is hard to envision a particularly strong report coming out on Friday,” noted Simons. Bank of America economists forecast just 150,000 payrolls were added for November, compared to 638,000 in October. The private sector is expected to add 300,000, but expected government layoffs impacted total payrolls in their forecast. Faranello said he expects the bond market to be much more active than normal this December because of the pending change in the White House, as well as the runoff election in Georgia Jan. 5 that will decide whether Republicans keep their Senate majority. The market has also been concerned about the lack of stimulus from Washington. “The theme in the market right now is definitely hope and optimism versus the on the ground dynamic with Covid,” said Faranello. “The real question is can the vaccine rally hold up if we see the virus rise and we continue to see shutdowns. How does the market perform in light of that?” Krosby said she expects the market to watch for vaccine news. “The question I think is now whether or not we see the emergency authorization given to Pfizer and followed by Moderna,” she said. “I think that is a catalyst to the market because that is when you will start to see the vaccine distributed.” The Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee has a meeting set for Dec. 10 to discuss emergency authorization for the Pfizer Analysts expect investors to continue to gravitate to value and cyclicals, since they could have the biggest gains compared to already high priced big tech. But tech is still attractive. “We still see the Nasdaq leading,” said Krosby. “Whereas we enjoyed the vaccine related boom in the market, the fact is that investors and and traders are looking for big tech names to give them that growth in earnings and revenues.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month. In the last seventeen election years, December’s ranking changed modestly to #2 DJIA, #5 NASDAQ, but S&P 500 remains #3. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in ten election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.
For most of the past year, one significant trend on a sector by sector basis has been the outperformance of sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. The relative strength lines of these sectors have consistently shown outperformance versus the rest of the S&P 500 as a whole, but since August, other sectors have begun to take the wheel. As we noted in today's Sector Snapshot, just about every sector has had a banner month in November with some of the biggest month to date rallies of the past 30 years, but some sectors have seen much larger returns than others. One of the best examples of this has been Energy which has risen over 35% in November. Similarly, Financials has risen an astounding 19.5% this month compared to more modest but still significant rallies of around 10% from Tech and Consumer Discretionary. Given those large degrees of outperformance, the relative strength lines of Energy and Financials have taken a sharp turn higher in recent weeks. Similarly, they have seen a turnaround in their weightings in the S&P 500 as shown in the charts below. Over the past three months, the Financial sector has gained a full percentage point weighting while the Technology sector has lost 1.36 percentage points with a decline in weighting in three straight months. For Financials, that is the largest gain in weighting in a three month span since January 2017. For Tech, outside of the reshuffling in 2018 that saw a large share of its weight change into Communication Services, the last time the sector lost this much or more in weighting in three months was November of 2008. Prior to this recent string of losing weight over the past three months, Tech had seen weight gain in every month from October of last year through August. Even though the weight loss has been significant, it has only put a dent in the increased share of the entirety of the past year as the sector's weight is only back down to where it was in May. Similarly, looking at the other sectors, while Financials have added a full percentage point in share over the past few months, that follows nine months of declines running from last December through August. That brings the sector's weighting back above 10% in the S&P 500, but that is only at the highest level since March. Similarly, Materials and Industrials have also seen their weights rise for three and four months in a row, respectively. As for Energy, the 0.44 percentage point gain in November is set to snap six straight months of declines; the longest such streak since at least 1990. As with Financials, that turn around this month has only put a dent in the longer term trend of weight loss as Energy's weighting is now only back to its highest level since July. Opposite of Energy, Consumer Discretionary is on pace to lose weight for the first time since March.
Heading into today with just three trading days left in November, the average Russell 1,000 stock was up 17.44% month to date. As shown below, not one of the five largest stocks is up even close to 17% on the month. For a market that had recently been driven higher in large part because of the five mega-cap Tech names, November has seen the mega-caps stall a bit while the rest of the market has seen broad participation. This is the type of breadth that market bulls have been waiting and hoping for. Of the 35 largest stocks in the Russell 1,000, Tesla (TSLA) is up the most so far this month with a gain of 43%. The other big winners include Chevron (CVX), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Disney (DIS), and Comcast (CMCSA). Not one stock in the top 35 is down on the month, but the ones that are up the least are Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble (PG), Amazon (AMZN), and Home Depot (HD).
Looking at sectors, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1,000 is up 46% month-to-date but still down 27% year-to-date. Three other sectors have seen their stocks average MTD gains of more than 20%: Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate. Stocks in the Health Care and Utilities sectors are up the least on an average basis this month, but even these underperformers are still up more than 5%.
There are 37 stocks in the Russell 1,000 up more than 50% so far in November. Below is a list of this month's biggest winners. Coty (COTY) and Nordstrom (JWN) stand out the most with gains of more than 100%, followed by Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Empire State Realty (ESRT). The list of biggest winners this month is full of names that got hit hardest by COVID in areas like energy, travel, retail, and real estate. Notably, while these stocks are up an average of 68.5% in November, they're still down an average of 23% on the year. On a median basis, they're down even more year-to-date at -31.55%.
The market started off November on a positive note, and even after the election has continued to add to its gains. Through the close today (11/24), the S&P 500 is up 7.90% since the close on Election Day. Relative to every other Presidential election since the beginning of the S&P back in 1928, the three-week performance of the S&P 500 following this Election Day ranks as the second-best of all time. It came down right to the wire, but the only other US President to see a stronger market reaction to their election (or re-election) was Ronald Reagan in 1980 (7.97%). Behind Reagan and Biden, the only other Presidents where the S&P 500 experienced an upside move of 5%+ in reaction to their elections were Hoover in 1928 and Clinton in 1996. On the downside, the most negative reaction of the market in the three weeks after Election Day was the 14.75% decline following President Obama's election in 2008. In addition to Obama, the S&P 500's four other three-week downside moves of more than 5% came after the elections of Truman in 1948, the election of George W Bush in 2000 (although at the time it was unknown who was the winner of that election), the election of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932, and Dwight D Eisenhower's re-election in 1956. In aggregate, the S&P 500 hasn't historically responded all that great in the three weeks after a Presidential election. For every one since 1928, the median return of the S&P 500 in the three weeks after Election Day has been a gain of just 0.35%. Breaking out returns by party, in the three weeks after a Democratic candidate is elected, the S&P 500's median performance is a decline of 1.11% compared to a median gain of 3.04% when a Republican is elected.
What a wild year 2020 has been! With the DJIA closing above 30,000 today, it was the second first-time upside break of a 1,000 point threshold this year. While there have only been two new upside crosses of 1,000 point thresholds, due to the sharp pullback in March from the pandemic that briefly took the DJIA below 19,000 on a closing basis, there have actually been 12 different upside 1,000 point thresholds at some point in the year. The table below lists the first time that the DJIA closed above each 1,000 point threshold in its history along with the total number of times the index has crossed that level on a closing basis throughout history. The thousand point level that has seen the most crosses on a closing basis was 11,000 (87 crosses) while 10,000 ranks second at 67. Obviously, the higher the DJIA goes, the less impactful a move of 1,000 points becomes. At current levels, 1,000 points represents just 3.3%, which is really nothing more than a very bad day in the market. Given the diminishing impact of 1,000 points in the DJIA these days, their significance declines. Even still, the twelve new 1,000-point crosses since the 2016 election has given the President (who has publicly discussed the stock market more than any other President in history) plenty of ammunition to tweet about.
As 2020 winds down, it has been an extremely tough year on all of us. Still, there are many reasons to be thankful and today we will share some reasons investors should be thankful. Stocks have had one of the largest reversals ever in 2020, something to be thankful for. In fact, this could be the first year ever to see the S&P 500 down more than 30% peak-to-trough and finish higher.
We should also be thankful that Congress was split in 2020, likely marking the 11th consecutive year the S&P 500 gained under a split Congress. Gridlock is good they tell us and that very well could be true yet again. Want something else to be thankful for? We likely will have a split Congress for another two years after the two Georgia runoffs are official.
Let’s be thankful that it is looking like stocks once again will be higher the year a President is up for re-election. In fact, you have to go back to FDR in the ‘40s the last time the S&P 500 was lower for the year when a President was up for re-election.
We are thankful that we are in a new bull market, which if history plays out once again, could have a lot of life left to it. In fact, the average bull market has lasted more than five years.
“Let’s be thankful that the huge move off the March lows was a major clue of more strength,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We noted at the time (many different ways) that the enormous move we saw off the March lows likely suggested significantly higher prices, while many ignored the market signals and instead looked for a re-test for months on end.” The 20-days off the March lows was the second best 20-day rally ever and sure enough, the returns have been very strong.
We are finally seeing many stocks participate in this bull market, another reason to be thankful. In fact, the Value Line Arithmetic Index recently made new all-time highs. This index is a great look at what the ‘average’ stock is doing and is a sign that this move isn’t being led by just a few large cap tech stocks.
Let’s be thankful that the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline line is at new highs. This looks at how many stocks are going up versus down and new highs are a sign of very healthy participation.
Emerging markets have started to turn higher and we are thankful that this group could be on the verge of a major breakout to new highs, clearing their peak from 2007. As we move into ’21, this is one group we think could continue to do quite well for investors.
We upgraded our view on small caps in September and the Russell 2000 Index is currently on pace to have its best monthly return ever. Investors should be thankful that this group is finally participating, as there are many more small caps than large caps, another sign of improving breadth, while small caps are also more domestic by nature and could be suggesting a strong US economy next year.
Investors should be thankful for the incredible strength around the election, as the S&P 500 gained more than 1% four consecutive days. This is extremely rare, yet, extremely bullish going out a year.
As we showed in Frothy Sentiment Rides Bullish Technicals, the huge number of stocks in the S&P 500 making new monthly highs should make bulls quite thankful.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Friday 12.4.20 After Market Close:
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Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $471.61
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $694.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share on revenue of $685.00 million to $690.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 971.43% with revenue increasing by 316.89%. The stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 72.1% above its 200 day moving average of $274.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,957 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.3% move in recent quarters.
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.00% with revenue increasing by 16.33%. Short interest has increased by 47.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% above its 200 day moving average of $199.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,759 contracts of the $260.00 call and 8,560 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
At Home Group Inc. (HOME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $470.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 47.46%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 93.5% above its 200 day moving average of $9.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 522 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.2% move in recent quarters.
CrowdStrike, Inc. (CRWD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $213.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $211.00 million to $215.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 111.11% with revenue increasing by 70.80%. Short interest has increased by 43.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 51.8% above its 200 day moving average of $99.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,249 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.
DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $360.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $358.00 million to $362.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.69% with revenue increasing by 44.44%. The stock has drifted lower by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.6% above its 200 day moving average of $163.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,534 contracts of the $180.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.97 per share on revenue of $8.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.73% with revenue increasing by 14.43%. Short interest has increased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.1% above its 200 day moving average of $187.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 893 contracts of the $220.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.
Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 AM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $542.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $542.00 million to $557.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.28% with revenue decreasing by 12.85%. Short interest has decreased by 25.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.7% below its 200 day moving average of $19.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,128 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $750.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.22 to $0.28 per share on revenue of $712.00 million to $788.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 47.06% with revenue increasing by 13.27%. Short interest has increased by 69.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $32.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
Autohome Inc. (ATHM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share on revenue of $326.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $317.00 million to $323.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.71% with revenue increasing by 7.62%. Short interest has decreased by 12.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.3% above its 200 day moving average of $84.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,382 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 30th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 30th, 2020.
Stocks on track to close out month of big gains as jobs data looms - (Source)
Stocks next week will come off one of their best months ever into a busy week of economic data and the ongoing tensions between the spreading virus and positive news on vaccines and treatments. Another highlight of the week is expected to be Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the Senate Banking Committee. They will be discussing the emergency measures taken to help the economy after the outbreak of the pandemic. The Dow was up nearly 13% for November so far, and if it holds its gains into Monday’s close, it will chalk up its best month since January, 1987. The S&P 500 closed at a record 3,638 and was up 11.3% for the month. The gain is its best performance since April’s 12.7%, which was the third best month for the S&P 500 since its origin in 1957. November was a big month also for market rotation, with investors favoring stocks that would benefit from a rebounding economy and showing less love for long-held favorites among big tech and internet names. Financials were up more than 17% in the past month, and industrials rose nearly 15%, as investors bet vaccines would help the economy return to normal next year. Tech notched a single digit gain for the month so far and lagged the broader market. But some strategists expect big tech and internet names, stay-at-home stocks, to fare better in December. “The death of big tech has been announced over and over again, and we see that the market doesn’t abandon them, but in fact migrates to big tech whenever there are concerns,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The post-pandemic question is whether big tech can co-exist with the small and mid-cap.” Small caps were one of the biggest winners in November, with the Russell 2000, up 20.6%. “We did not see major selling in Nasdaq,” as investors put funds in cyclicals and value, she said. Nasdaq was up 11.9% for the month so far, slightly better than the S&P 500. Experts have warned that there could an even bigger surge in virus cases, following the Thanksgiving holiday which could start to show up in the coming week. There have been more than 12.6 million cases in the U.S.
Jobs report
There are some important economic reports in the week ahead, the most important being Friday’s November employment report. There is is also ISM manufacturing data Tuesday. “My thought here is the data is going to matter because if you listen to the Fed, and if you read through the Fed’s minutes, they’re in transition here. They’re becoming more concerned about the rise in Covid cases, certainly about the lack of fiscal support,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. Strategists say another key report will be weekly jobless claims, which showed an increase in each of the last two weeks. “The employment data clearly has been weakening,” said Faranello. If it continues, it will keep a lid on Treasury yields, which move opposite prices. Jefferies economist Tom Simons expects the elimination of Census Bureau workers to detract from the job gains in November, and he forecasts the economy added just 340,000 jobs. “It is hard to envision a particularly strong report coming out on Friday,” noted Simons. Bank of America economists forecast just 150,000 payrolls were added for November, compared to 638,000 in October. The private sector is expected to add 300,000, but expected government layoffs impacted total payrolls in their forecast. Faranello said he expects the bond market to be much more active than normal this December because of the pending change in the White House, as well as the runoff election in Georgia Jan. 5 that will decide whether Republicans keep their Senate majority. The market has also been concerned about the lack of stimulus from Washington. “The theme in the market right now is definitely hope and optimism versus the on the ground dynamic with Covid,” said Faranello. “The real question is can the vaccine rally hold up if we see the virus rise and we continue to see shutdowns. How does the market perform in light of that?” Krosby said she expects the market to watch for vaccine news. “The question I think is now whether or not we see the emergency authorization given to Pfizer and followed by Moderna,” she said. “I think that is a catalyst to the market because that is when you will start to see the vaccine distributed.” The Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee has a meeting set for Dec. 10 to discuss emergency authorization for the Pfizer Analysts expect investors to continue to gravitate to value and cyclicals, since they could have the biggest gains compared to already high priced big tech. But tech is still attractive. “We still see the Nasdaq leading,” said Krosby. “Whereas we enjoyed the vaccine related boom in the market, the fact is that investors and and traders are looking for big tech names to give them that growth in earnings and revenues.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month. In the last seventeen election years, December’s ranking changed modestly to #2 DJIA, #5 NASDAQ, but S&P 500 remains #3. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in ten election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.
For most of the past year, one significant trend on a sector by sector basis has been the outperformance of sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. The relative strength lines of these sectors have consistently shown outperformance versus the rest of the S&P 500 as a whole, but since August, other sectors have begun to take the wheel. As we noted in today's Sector Snapshot, just about every sector has had a banner month in November with some of the biggest month to date rallies of the past 30 years, but some sectors have seen much larger returns than others. One of the best examples of this has been Energy which has risen over 35% in November. Similarly, Financials has risen an astounding 19.5% this month compared to more modest but still significant rallies of around 10% from Tech and Consumer Discretionary. Given those large degrees of outperformance, the relative strength lines of Energy and Financials have taken a sharp turn higher in recent weeks. Similarly, they have seen a turnaround in their weightings in the S&P 500 as shown in the charts below. Over the past three months, the Financial sector has gained a full percentage point weighting while the Technology sector has lost 1.36 percentage points with a decline in weighting in three straight months. For Financials, that is the largest gain in weighting in a three month span since January 2017. For Tech, outside of the reshuffling in 2018 that saw a large share of its weight change into Communication Services, the last time the sector lost this much or more in weighting in three months was November of 2008. Prior to this recent string of losing weight over the past three months, Tech had seen weight gain in every month from October of last year through August. Even though the weight loss has been significant, it has only put a dent in the increased share of the entirety of the past year as the sector's weight is only back down to where it was in May. Similarly, looking at the other sectors, while Financials have added a full percentage point in share over the past few months, that follows nine months of declines running from last December through August. That brings the sector's weighting back above 10% in the S&P 500, but that is only at the highest level since March. Similarly, Materials and Industrials have also seen their weights rise for three and four months in a row, respectively. As for Energy, the 0.44 percentage point gain in November is set to snap six straight months of declines; the longest such streak since at least 1990. As with Financials, that turn around this month has only put a dent in the longer term trend of weight loss as Energy's weighting is now only back to its highest level since July. Opposite of Energy, Consumer Discretionary is on pace to lose weight for the first time since March.
Heading into today with just three trading days left in November, the average Russell 1,000 stock was up 17.44% month to date. As shown below, not one of the five largest stocks is up even close to 17% on the month. For a market that had recently been driven higher in large part because of the five mega-cap Tech names, November has seen the mega-caps stall a bit while the rest of the market has seen broad participation. This is the type of breadth that market bulls have been waiting and hoping for. Of the 35 largest stocks in the Russell 1,000, Tesla (TSLA) is up the most so far this month with a gain of 43%. The other big winners include Chevron (CVX), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Disney (DIS), and Comcast (CMCSA). Not one stock in the top 35 is down on the month, but the ones that are up the least are Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble (PG), Amazon (AMZN), and Home Depot (HD).
Looking at sectors, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1,000 is up 46% month-to-date but still down 27% year-to-date. Three other sectors have seen their stocks average MTD gains of more than 20%: Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate. Stocks in the Health Care and Utilities sectors are up the least on an average basis this month, but even these underperformers are still up more than 5%.
There are 37 stocks in the Russell 1,000 up more than 50% so far in November. Below is a list of this month's biggest winners. Coty (COTY) and Nordstrom (JWN) stand out the most with gains of more than 100%, followed by Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Empire State Realty (ESRT). The list of biggest winners this month is full of names that got hit hardest by COVID in areas like energy, travel, retail, and real estate. Notably, while these stocks are up an average of 68.5% in November, they're still down an average of 23% on the year. On a median basis, they're down even more year-to-date at -31.55%.
The market started off November on a positive note, and even after the election has continued to add to its gains. Through the close today (11/24), the S&P 500 is up 7.90% since the close on Election Day. Relative to every other Presidential election since the beginning of the S&P back in 1928, the three-week performance of the S&P 500 following this Election Day ranks as the second-best of all time. It came down right to the wire, but the only other US President to see a stronger market reaction to their election (or re-election) was Ronald Reagan in 1980 (7.97%). Behind Reagan and Biden, the only other Presidents where the S&P 500 experienced an upside move of 5%+ in reaction to their elections were Hoover in 1928 and Clinton in 1996. On the downside, the most negative reaction of the market in the three weeks after Election Day was the 14.75% decline following President Obama's election in 2008. In addition to Obama, the S&P 500's four other three-week downside moves of more than 5% came after the elections of Truman in 1948, the election of George W Bush in 2000 (although at the time it was unknown who was the winner of that election), the election of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932, and Dwight D Eisenhower's re-election in 1956. In aggregate, the S&P 500 hasn't historically responded all that great in the three weeks after a Presidential election. For every one since 1928, the median return of the S&P 500 in the three weeks after Election Day has been a gain of just 0.35%. Breaking out returns by party, in the three weeks after a Democratic candidate is elected, the S&P 500's median performance is a decline of 1.11% compared to a median gain of 3.04% when a Republican is elected.
What a wild year 2020 has been! With the DJIA closing above 30,000 today, it was the second first-time upside break of a 1,000 point threshold this year. While there have only been two new upside crosses of 1,000 point thresholds, due to the sharp pullback in March from the pandemic that briefly took the DJIA below 19,000 on a closing basis, there have actually been 12 different upside 1,000 point thresholds at some point in the year. The table below lists the first time that the DJIA closed above each 1,000 point threshold in its history along with the total number of times the index has crossed that level on a closing basis throughout history. The thousand point level that has seen the most crosses on a closing basis was 11,000 (87 crosses) while 10,000 ranks second at 67. Obviously, the higher the DJIA goes, the less impactful a move of 1,000 points becomes. At current levels, 1,000 points represents just 3.3%, which is really nothing more than a very bad day in the market. Given the diminishing impact of 1,000 points in the DJIA these days, their significance declines. Even still, the twelve new 1,000-point crosses since the 2016 election has given the President (who has publicly discussed the stock market more than any other President in history) plenty of ammunition to tweet about.
As 2020 winds down, it has been an extremely tough year on all of us. Still, there are many reasons to be thankful and today we will share some reasons investors should be thankful. Stocks have had one of the largest reversals ever in 2020, something to be thankful for. In fact, this could be the first year ever to see the S&P 500 down more than 30% peak-to-trough and finish higher.
We should also be thankful that Congress was split in 2020, likely marking the 11th consecutive year the S&P 500 gained under a split Congress. Gridlock is good they tell us and that very well could be true yet again. Want something else to be thankful for? We likely will have a split Congress for another two years after the two Georgia runoffs are official.
Let’s be thankful that it is looking like stocks once again will be higher the year a President is up for re-election. In fact, you have to go back to FDR in the ‘40s the last time the S&P 500 was lower for the year when a President was up for re-election.
We are thankful that we are in a new bull market, which if history plays out once again, could have a lot of life left to it. In fact, the average bull market has lasted more than five years.
“Let’s be thankful that the huge move off the March lows was a major clue of more strength,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We noted at the time (many different ways) that the enormous move we saw off the March lows likely suggested significantly higher prices, while many ignored the market signals and instead looked for a re-test for months on end.” The 20-days off the March lows was the second best 20-day rally ever and sure enough, the returns have been very strong.
We are finally seeing many stocks participate in this bull market, another reason to be thankful. In fact, the Value Line Arithmetic Index recently made new all-time highs. This index is a great look at what the ‘average’ stock is doing and is a sign that this move isn’t being led by just a few large cap tech stocks.
Let’s be thankful that the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline line is at new highs. This looks at how many stocks are going up versus down and new highs are a sign of very healthy participation.
Emerging markets have started to turn higher and we are thankful that this group could be on the verge of a major breakout to new highs, clearing their peak from 2007. As we move into ’21, this is one group we think could continue to do quite well for investors.
We upgraded our view on small caps in September and the Russell 2000 Index is currently on pace to have its best monthly return ever. Investors should be thankful that this group is finally participating, as there are many more small caps than large caps, another sign of improving breadth, while small caps are also more domestic by nature and could be suggesting a strong US economy next year.
Investors should be thankful for the incredible strength around the election, as the S&P 500 gained more than 1% four consecutive days. This is extremely rare, yet, extremely bullish going out a year.
As we showed in Frothy Sentiment Rides Bullish Technicals, the huge number of stocks in the S&P 500 making new monthly highs should make bulls quite thankful.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
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Friday 12.4.20 After Market Close:
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Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $471.61
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $694.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share on revenue of $685.00 million to $690.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 971.43% with revenue increasing by 316.89%. The stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 72.1% above its 200 day moving average of $274.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,957 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.3% move in recent quarters.
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.00% with revenue increasing by 16.33%. Short interest has increased by 47.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% above its 200 day moving average of $199.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,759 contracts of the $260.00 call and 8,560 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
At Home Group Inc. (HOME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $470.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 47.46%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 93.5% above its 200 day moving average of $9.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 522 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.2% move in recent quarters.
CrowdStrike, Inc. (CRWD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $213.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $211.00 million to $215.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 111.11% with revenue increasing by 70.80%. Short interest has increased by 43.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 51.8% above its 200 day moving average of $99.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,249 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.
DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $360.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $358.00 million to $362.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.69% with revenue increasing by 44.44%. The stock has drifted lower by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.6% above its 200 day moving average of $163.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,534 contracts of the $180.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.97 per share on revenue of $8.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.73% with revenue increasing by 14.43%. Short interest has increased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.1% above its 200 day moving average of $187.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 893 contracts of the $220.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.
OrganiGram (OGI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $14.77 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue increasing by 20.20%. Short interest has increased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% below its 200 day moving average of $1.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,470 contracts of the $5.00 call expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. The stock has averaged a 14.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 AM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $542.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $542.00 million to $557.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.28% with revenue decreasing by 12.85%. Short interest has decreased by 25.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.7% below its 200 day moving average of $19.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,128 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $750.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.22 to $0.28 per share on revenue of $712.00 million to $788.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 47.06% with revenue increasing by 13.27%. Short interest has increased by 69.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $32.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
Autohome Inc. (ATHM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share on revenue of $326.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $317.00 million to $323.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.71% with revenue increasing by 7.62%. Short interest has decreased by 12.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.3% above its 200 day moving average of $84.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,382 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 30th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 30th, 2020.
Stocks on track to close out month of big gains as jobs data looms - (Source)
Stocks next week will come off one of their best months ever into a busy week of economic data and the ongoing tensions between the spreading virus and positive news on vaccines and treatments. Another highlight of the week is expected to be Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the Senate Banking Committee. They will be discussing the emergency measures taken to help the economy after the outbreak of the pandemic. The Dow was up nearly 13% for November so far, and if it holds its gains into Monday’s close, it will chalk up its best month since January, 1987. The S&P 500 closed at a record 3,638 and was up 11.3% for the month. The gain is its best performance since April’s 12.7%, which was the third best month for the S&P 500 since its origin in 1957. November was a big month also for market rotation, with investors favoring stocks that would benefit from a rebounding economy and showing less love for long-held favorites among big tech and internet names. Financials were up more than 17% in the past month, and industrials rose nearly 15%, as investors bet vaccines would help the economy return to normal next year. Tech notched a single digit gain for the month so far and lagged the broader market. But some strategists expect big tech and internet names, stay-at-home stocks, to fare better in December. “The death of big tech has been announced over and over again, and we see that the market doesn’t abandon them, but in fact migrates to big tech whenever there are concerns,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The post-pandemic question is whether big tech can co-exist with the small and mid-cap.” Small caps were one of the biggest winners in November, with the Russell 2000, up 20.6%. “We did not see major selling in Nasdaq,” as investors put funds in cyclicals and value, she said. Nasdaq was up 11.9% for the month so far, slightly better than the S&P 500. Experts have warned that there could an even bigger surge in virus cases, following the Thanksgiving holiday which could start to show up in the coming week. There have been more than 12.6 million cases in the U.S.
Jobs report
There are some important economic reports in the week ahead, the most important being Friday’s November employment report. There is is also ISM manufacturing data Tuesday. “My thought here is the data is going to matter because if you listen to the Fed, and if you read through the Fed’s minutes, they’re in transition here. They’re becoming more concerned about the rise in Covid cases, certainly about the lack of fiscal support,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. Strategists say another key report will be weekly jobless claims, which showed an increase in each of the last two weeks. “The employment data clearly has been weakening,” said Faranello. If it continues, it will keep a lid on Treasury yields, which move opposite prices. Jefferies economist Tom Simons expects the elimination of Census Bureau workers to detract from the job gains in November, and he forecasts the economy added just 340,000 jobs. “It is hard to envision a particularly strong report coming out on Friday,” noted Simons. Bank of America economists forecast just 150,000 payrolls were added for November, compared to 638,000 in October. The private sector is expected to add 300,000, but expected government layoffs impacted total payrolls in their forecast. Faranello said he expects the bond market to be much more active than normal this December because of the pending change in the White House, as well as the runoff election in Georgia Jan. 5 that will decide whether Republicans keep their Senate majority. The market has also been concerned about the lack of stimulus from Washington. “The theme in the market right now is definitely hope and optimism versus the on the ground dynamic with Covid,” said Faranello. “The real question is can the vaccine rally hold up if we see the virus rise and we continue to see shutdowns. How does the market perform in light of that?” Krosby said she expects the market to watch for vaccine news. “The question I think is now whether or not we see the emergency authorization given to Pfizer and followed by Moderna,” she said. “I think that is a catalyst to the market because that is when you will start to see the vaccine distributed.” The Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee has a meeting set for Dec. 10 to discuss emergency authorization for the Pfizer Analysts expect investors to continue to gravitate to value and cyclicals, since they could have the biggest gains compared to already high priced big tech. But tech is still attractive. “We still see the Nasdaq leading,” said Krosby. “Whereas we enjoyed the vaccine related boom in the market, the fact is that investors and and traders are looking for big tech names to give them that growth in earnings and revenues.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month. In the last seventeen election years, December’s ranking changed modestly to #2 DJIA, #5 NASDAQ, but S&P 500 remains #3. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in ten election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.
For most of the past year, one significant trend on a sector by sector basis has been the outperformance of sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. The relative strength lines of these sectors have consistently shown outperformance versus the rest of the S&P 500 as a whole, but since August, other sectors have begun to take the wheel. As we noted in today's Sector Snapshot, just about every sector has had a banner month in November with some of the biggest month to date rallies of the past 30 years, but some sectors have seen much larger returns than others. One of the best examples of this has been Energy which has risen over 35% in November. Similarly, Financials has risen an astounding 19.5% this month compared to more modest but still significant rallies of around 10% from Tech and Consumer Discretionary. Given those large degrees of outperformance, the relative strength lines of Energy and Financials have taken a sharp turn higher in recent weeks. Similarly, they have seen a turnaround in their weightings in the S&P 500 as shown in the charts below. Over the past three months, the Financial sector has gained a full percentage point weighting while the Technology sector has lost 1.36 percentage points with a decline in weighting in three straight months. For Financials, that is the largest gain in weighting in a three month span since January 2017. For Tech, outside of the reshuffling in 2018 that saw a large share of its weight change into Communication Services, the last time the sector lost this much or more in weighting in three months was November of 2008. Prior to this recent string of losing weight over the past three months, Tech had seen weight gain in every month from October of last year through August. Even though the weight loss has been significant, it has only put a dent in the increased share of the entirety of the past year as the sector's weight is only back down to where it was in May. Similarly, looking at the other sectors, while Financials have added a full percentage point in share over the past few months, that follows nine months of declines running from last December through August. That brings the sector's weighting back above 10% in the S&P 500, but that is only at the highest level since March. Similarly, Materials and Industrials have also seen their weights rise for three and four months in a row, respectively. As for Energy, the 0.44 percentage point gain in November is set to snap six straight months of declines; the longest such streak since at least 1990. As with Financials, that turn around this month has only put a dent in the longer term trend of weight loss as Energy's weighting is now only back to its highest level since July. Opposite of Energy, Consumer Discretionary is on pace to lose weight for the first time since March.
Heading into today with just three trading days left in November, the average Russell 1,000 stock was up 17.44% month to date. As shown below, not one of the five largest stocks is up even close to 17% on the month. For a market that had recently been driven higher in large part because of the five mega-cap Tech names, November has seen the mega-caps stall a bit while the rest of the market has seen broad participation. This is the type of breadth that market bulls have been waiting and hoping for. Of the 35 largest stocks in the Russell 1,000, Tesla (TSLA) is up the most so far this month with a gain of 43%. The other big winners include Chevron (CVX), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Disney (DIS), and Comcast (CMCSA). Not one stock in the top 35 is down on the month, but the ones that are up the least are Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble (PG), Amazon (AMZN), and Home Depot (HD).
Looking at sectors, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1,000 is up 46% month-to-date but still down 27% year-to-date. Three other sectors have seen their stocks average MTD gains of more than 20%: Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate. Stocks in the Health Care and Utilities sectors are up the least on an average basis this month, but even these underperformers are still up more than 5%.
There are 37 stocks in the Russell 1,000 up more than 50% so far in November. Below is a list of this month's biggest winners. Coty (COTY) and Nordstrom (JWN) stand out the most with gains of more than 100%, followed by Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Empire State Realty (ESRT). The list of biggest winners this month is full of names that got hit hardest by COVID in areas like energy, travel, retail, and real estate. Notably, while these stocks are up an average of 68.5% in November, they're still down an average of 23% on the year. On a median basis, they're down even more year-to-date at -31.55%.
The market started off November on a positive note, and even after the election has continued to add to its gains. Through the close today (11/24), the S&P 500 is up 7.90% since the close on Election Day. Relative to every other Presidential election since the beginning of the S&P back in 1928, the three-week performance of the S&P 500 following this Election Day ranks as the second-best of all time. It came down right to the wire, but the only other US President to see a stronger market reaction to their election (or re-election) was Ronald Reagan in 1980 (7.97%). Behind Reagan and Biden, the only other Presidents where the S&P 500 experienced an upside move of 5%+ in reaction to their elections were Hoover in 1928 and Clinton in 1996. On the downside, the most negative reaction of the market in the three weeks after Election Day was the 14.75% decline following President Obama's election in 2008. In addition to Obama, the S&P 500's four other three-week downside moves of more than 5% came after the elections of Truman in 1948, the election of George W Bush in 2000 (although at the time it was unknown who was the winner of that election), the election of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932, and Dwight D Eisenhower's re-election in 1956. In aggregate, the S&P 500 hasn't historically responded all that great in the three weeks after a Presidential election. For every one since 1928, the median return of the S&P 500 in the three weeks after Election Day has been a gain of just 0.35%. Breaking out returns by party, in the three weeks after a Democratic candidate is elected, the S&P 500's median performance is a decline of 1.11% compared to a median gain of 3.04% when a Republican is elected.
What a wild year 2020 has been! With the DJIA closing above 30,000 today, it was the second first-time upside break of a 1,000 point threshold this year. While there have only been two new upside crosses of 1,000 point thresholds, due to the sharp pullback in March from the pandemic that briefly took the DJIA below 19,000 on a closing basis, there have actually been 12 different upside 1,000 point thresholds at some point in the year. The table below lists the first time that the DJIA closed above each 1,000 point threshold in its history along with the total number of times the index has crossed that level on a closing basis throughout history. The thousand point level that has seen the most crosses on a closing basis was 11,000 (87 crosses) while 10,000 ranks second at 67. Obviously, the higher the DJIA goes, the less impactful a move of 1,000 points becomes. At current levels, 1,000 points represents just 3.3%, which is really nothing more than a very bad day in the market. Given the diminishing impact of 1,000 points in the DJIA these days, their significance declines. Even still, the twelve new 1,000-point crosses since the 2016 election has given the President (who has publicly discussed the stock market more than any other President in history) plenty of ammunition to tweet about.
As 2020 winds down, it has been an extremely tough year on all of us. Still, there are many reasons to be thankful and today we will share some reasons investors should be thankful. Stocks have had one of the largest reversals ever in 2020, something to be thankful for. In fact, this could be the first year ever to see the S&P 500 down more than 30% peak-to-trough and finish higher.
We should also be thankful that Congress was split in 2020, likely marking the 11th consecutive year the S&P 500 gained under a split Congress. Gridlock is good they tell us and that very well could be true yet again. Want something else to be thankful for? We likely will have a split Congress for another two years after the two Georgia runoffs are official.
Let’s be thankful that it is looking like stocks once again will be higher the year a President is up for re-election. In fact, you have to go back to FDR in the ‘40s the last time the S&P 500 was lower for the year when a President was up for re-election.
We are thankful that we are in a new bull market, which if history plays out once again, could have a lot of life left to it. In fact, the average bull market has lasted more than five years.
“Let’s be thankful that the huge move off the March lows was a major clue of more strength,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We noted at the time (many different ways) that the enormous move we saw off the March lows likely suggested significantly higher prices, while many ignored the market signals and instead looked for a re-test for months on end.” The 20-days off the March lows was the second best 20-day rally ever and sure enough, the returns have been very strong.
We are finally seeing many stocks participate in this bull market, another reason to be thankful. In fact, the Value Line Arithmetic Index recently made new all-time highs. This index is a great look at what the ‘average’ stock is doing and is a sign that this move isn’t being led by just a few large cap tech stocks.
Let’s be thankful that the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline line is at new highs. This looks at how many stocks are going up versus down and new highs are a sign of very healthy participation.
Emerging markets have started to turn higher and we are thankful that this group could be on the verge of a major breakout to new highs, clearing their peak from 2007. As we move into ’21, this is one group we think could continue to do quite well for investors.
We upgraded our view on small caps in September and the Russell 2000 Index is currently on pace to have its best monthly return ever. Investors should be thankful that this group is finally participating, as there are many more small caps than large caps, another sign of improving breadth, while small caps are also more domestic by nature and could be suggesting a strong US economy next year.
Investors should be thankful for the incredible strength around the election, as the S&P 500 gained more than 1% four consecutive days. This is extremely rare, yet, extremely bullish going out a year.
As we showed in Frothy Sentiment Rides Bullish Technicals, the huge number of stocks in the S&P 500 making new monthly highs should make bulls quite thankful.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
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Friday 12.4.20 After Market Close:
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Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $471.61
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $694.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share on revenue of $685.00 million to $690.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 971.43% with revenue increasing by 316.89%. The stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 72.1% above its 200 day moving average of $274.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,957 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.3% move in recent quarters.
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.00% with revenue increasing by 16.33%. Short interest has increased by 47.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% above its 200 day moving average of $199.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,759 contracts of the $260.00 call and 8,560 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
At Home Group Inc. (HOME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $470.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 47.46%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 93.5% above its 200 day moving average of $9.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 522 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.2% move in recent quarters.
CrowdStrike, Inc. (CRWD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $213.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $211.00 million to $215.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 111.11% with revenue increasing by 70.80%. Short interest has increased by 43.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 51.8% above its 200 day moving average of $99.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,249 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.
DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $360.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $358.00 million to $362.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.69% with revenue increasing by 44.44%. The stock has drifted lower by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.6% above its 200 day moving average of $163.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,534 contracts of the $180.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.97 per share on revenue of $8.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.73% with revenue increasing by 14.43%. Short interest has increased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.1% above its 200 day moving average of $187.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 893 contracts of the $220.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.
OrganiGram (OGI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $14.77 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue increasing by 20.20%. Short interest has increased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% below its 200 day moving average of $1.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,470 contracts of the $5.00 call expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. The stock has averaged a 14.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 AM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $542.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $542.00 million to $557.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.28% with revenue decreasing by 12.85%. Short interest has decreased by 25.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.7% below its 200 day moving average of $19.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,128 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $750.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.22 to $0.28 per share on revenue of $712.00 million to $788.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 47.06% with revenue increasing by 13.27%. Short interest has increased by 69.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $32.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
Autohome Inc. (ATHM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share on revenue of $326.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $317.00 million to $323.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.71% with revenue increasing by 7.62%. Short interest has decreased by 12.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.3% above its 200 day moving average of $84.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,382 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
[Game Preview] Week 2 - Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles(0-1)
Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles season didn’t have the start they were looking for week 1 as they opened the season without their starting LT, RT, RG, RB, DT and WR and struggled against the Washington Football team to open their season with a loss. Luckily they will get two of those starters back this week in running back Miles Sanders and RT Lane Johnson. Both will be welcome additions as the Eagles struggled to block anyone against the Football Team both on the line and from the running back position. Additionally, getting a running game going will greatly help slow the pass rush which will be impressive as the Rams posted one of the best pressure rates last week led by All-Pro Aaron Donald. Hopefully Doug Pederson learns from his mistakes of last week and gets Carson moving with some designed rollouts and mixes up his play-calling more to establish the run. If Doug tries to do the same thing as last week it will be a long day for Carson and Donald will feast. On the other side of the ball, Schwartz had Slay follow McLaurin last week and it worked as Slay shut McLaurin down, but that is more difficult this week as the Rams have two talented receivers in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The Eagles will need to see how Maddox holds up on the outside with a bigger challenge this week. With the struggles of the Eagles offense and their injuries on that side of the ball, the Eagles will need their defenses to limit the quick scoring Rams offense or it will be a long day. Should be a good test for the Eagles to rebound after falling flat out of the gate last week. Go Birds!
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 0-1, Los Angeles 0-1
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Monday’s game to a national audience. Kevin Kugler will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Spielman will provide analysis. Laura Okmin will report from the sideline.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Rams Radio
Rams Radio J.B. Long will handle the play-by-play duties and former pro bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew will provide analysis. D'Marco Farr will report from the sidelines.
September 21, 1937 at Philadelphia Municipal Stadium, Philadelphia, PA. Cleveland Rams 21 Philadelphia Eagles 3
Points Leader
Philadelphia Eagles lead the Los Angeles Rams (843-842)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 2-0 against the Rams
Sean McVay: 0-2 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Sean McVay: Pederson leads 2-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Rams: 1-0
Jared Goff: Against Eagles: 0-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Jared Goff: Wentz leads 1-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead Rams: 2-0
Record @ Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: Rams lead Eagles 5-4-1
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 21 - Rams No. 09
Record
Eagles: 0-1
Rams: 1-0
Last Meeting
Sunday, December 12th, 2018
Eagles 30 - Rams 23
Nick Foles filled in for the injured Carson Wentz, taking up his spot under center after three months without game action. Foles promptly recaptured the magic, passing for 270 yards and confidently leading the Eagles to a 30-23 win over the Rams on Sunday night with plenty of help from his defense and his playmakers. Foles got plenty of help from his running game as Wendell Smallwood rushed for two touchdowns and rookie Josh Adams ran for another score as the Eagles (7-7) kept their playoff hopes quite viable with a gritty victory over the Rams (11-3), who lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time in coach Sean McVay's tenure.
Carson Wentz threw for 291 yards and four touchdowns before leaving with a knee injury and Jake Elliott kicked the go-ahead 33-yard field goal with 3:45 left for the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Los Angeles Rams 43-35 in a thriller Sunday to clinch the NFC East title.
Eagles - In a near-reversal of the previous season's opener, the Eagles scored the first 17 points, only for the Washington Football Team to then shut their offense out for the remainder of the afternoon. Meanwhile, Washington's offense scored 27 unanswered points, and the defense sacked Carson Wentz eight times, recorded two interceptions, and forced three fumbles. With the loss, Philadelphia's six-game winning streak against Washington was snapped dating back to Week 14 of the 2016 season, and the Eagles lost the first game of the season since 2015.
Rams - Playing their first game ever in their brand-new home at SoFi Stadium, the Rams held off the Cowboys in a close battle of NFC contenders. Receiving the opening kickoff (from former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein), Los Angeles drove 75 yards in seven plays, with Malcolm Brown scoring the new stadium's first touchdown on a 1-yard run. Rookie kicker Samuel Sloman missed on his first field goal attempt, a 29-yard try that bounced off the left upright near the end of the first quarter, but later was successful on field goals of 35 and 31 yards in the second quarter. However, Dallas took a 14-13 halftime lead as Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott scored on both a touchdown run and a touchdown reception. The Rams reclaimed the lead as Malcolm Brown (who finished with a team-high 18 rushes for 79 yards) scored his second touchdown of the game on a 2-yard run midway through the third quarter to put Los Angeles ahead 20-14. Zuerlein converted a 33-yard field goal late in the third quarter, but it would be as close as the Cowboys would get. Rookie safety Jordan Fuller led the Rams with eight total tackles, including a key tackle of Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb on a fourth-and-3 play at the Rams' 9-yard line, just one yard short of a first down to kill a Dallas scoring drive.
Connections
Rams QB Jared Goff and Eagles QB Carson Wentz were selected 1st and 2nd in the 2016 NFL draft after both teams traded up.
Eagles S Rodney McLeod played for the Rams from 2012-16.
Eagles CB Nickell Robey-Coleman played for the Rams from 2017-19.
Eagles LB coach Ken Fajole was defensive coordinator of the Rams for three seasons from 2009−2011.
Eagles TE Zach Ertz went to Stanford (2009-13) and is from Orange County, CA.
Eagles Director of Sports Performance Ted Rath worked for the Rams from 2017-2019 as their Strength and Conditioning Coach (2017) and Director of Strength Training and Performance (2018-2019).
Eagles Special assistant to the general manager Connor Barwin played for the Rams in 2018.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Rams
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
DT Aaron Donald (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
CB Jalen Ramsey
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Brad Allen
Philadelphia has produced a 22-19-1 (.536) record in the all-time series vs. Los Angeles. The Eagles own a 6-game winning streak against the Rams, scoring 30+ points in 5 straight contests.
Philadelphia is 15-8 (.652) in home games vs. Los Angeles, with victories in each of the last 2 such meetings (last: W, 34-28 on 10/5/14 at Lincoln Financial Field).
The Eagles are 23-9 (.719) at home in the regular season under head coach Doug Pederson, which marks the 5th-best home winning percentage in the NFL since 2016, trailing only New En-gland (.818, 27-6), Baltimore (.758, 25-8), Kansas City (.758, 25-8) and New Orleans (.727, 24-9).
Philadelphia has captured all 4 of its home openers with Doug Pederson at the helm (since 2016). Pederson is one of only two head coaches in Eagles history to win each of their first 4 home openers with the team, joining Joe Kuharich (1964-67).
In Week 1 at Washington, Philadelphia allowed only 239 total yards (80 rushing, 5th; 159 passing, 3rd), which were the fewest by any defense in the NFL during kickoff weekend. The Eagles limited Washington to just 27.8% (5-of-18) on third downs, which was also the 5th-best mark in the league.
Draft Picks
Eagles
Rams
WR Jalen Raegor
RB Cam Akers
QB Jalen Hurts
WR Van Jefferson
LB Davion Taylor
OLB Terrell Lewis
S K’Von Wallace
S Terrel Burgess
OT Jack Driscoll
TE Brycen Hopkins
WR John Hightower
S Jordan Fuller
LB Shaun Bradley
LB Clay Johnston
WR Quez Watkins
K Sam Sloman
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
G Tremayne Achrum
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Rams
S Will Parks
DT A’Shawn Robinson
DT Javon Hargrave
OLB Leonard Floyd
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
CB Darius Slay
S Sean Davis
WR Cody Latimer
CB Kendell Fuller
RB JD McKissic
G Wes Schweitzer
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Rams
S Malcom Jenkins
DE Dante Fowler Jr.
CB Ronald Darby
RB Todd Gurley
RB Jordan Howard
WR Brandin Cooks
WR Nelson Agholor
LB Cory Littleton
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
S Eric Weddle
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
RB Darren Sproles
WR Jojo Natson
DT Timmy Jernigan
WR Mike Thomas
LB Nigel Bradham
LB Clay Matthews
QB Blake Bortles
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (99) needs 1 passing TDs for 100 career passing TDs.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6322) needs 145 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (51) needs 3.5 sacks to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (48) needs 2.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27) needs 1 sack to move up to 19th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Darwin Walker
Rams WR Cooper Kupp (2636) needs 28 yards to move up to 16th on the Rams all-time receiving list passing WR Carroll Dale
Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (join.profootballfocus.com/edge/)
It doesn’t take advanced stats to know that Wentz spent most of Sunday under significant pressure. Washington sacked him eight times behind a makeshift offensive line that struggled to contain the Football Team’s pass rush. The Eagles allowed a 34% pressure rate Sunday, according to ESPN Next Gen Stats. That was the third-worst in the NFL. Five different Washington players generated at least four pressures. And it doesn’t get any easier against the Rams. The Cowboys allowed a 40.5% pressure rate Sunday night in their loss to the Rams, which was the second-worst mark of Week 1. And a big reason for that was Rams star Aaron Donald. Donald — the six-time Pro Bowler, five-time All-Pro and two-time AP Defensive Player of the Year who has 44 sacks over the past three seasons — posted a 28.6% pressure rate on Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott himself. He pressured Prescott 10 times for 35 pass rushes and finished with four tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss and four quarterback hits. According to Next Gen Stats, Donald’s pressure rate over the past three seasons is 13.5%, 13.9% and 14.6%. The Eagles offensive line is going to have to be ready or it is going to be another long Sunday for Carson Wentz.
Matchups to Watch
Carson Wentz vs. Himself
I note this matchup not to downplay the Rams and what they bring to the table, but to note that Wentz had plenty of mistakes that ultimately cost us the week 1 matchup. Change nothing of the game last week, bad OL, questionable scheming especially in the second half, Carson Wentz playing better wins us the game. Things were bad around him and he actively made them worse at times. These two things can be true: Wentz cost us the week 1 game and he should bounce back because he is a really good QB. This isn't the sky is falling, #TankForTrevor blurb, it's simply acknowledging the biggest change from week 1 to week 2 that would aid in a victory - Carson Wentz returning to form. There was also a lot of good last week, namely the first half! Check out the first TD throw to Ertz. Short, compressed field where he needs to make a snap decision and he comes off his first read (JJAW) and hits Ertz for 6. This is a great play by Wentz where he showed how good he is capping off a great drive. We need more of this consistency. Wentz was even missing on staples of the offense. He was erratic in the pocket and regularly off target. I love hero ball, I hate when QBs play scared, but better urgency and avoiding negative plays in the pocket would go a long way in smoothing out the rough edges of his game. It's infuriating to have some of the same issues he had in year 3 continue in year 5. Regardless, Wentz is a really good QB, so he should be expected to bounce back from a bad game every QB has once in a while. It just needs to happen quickly so the Eagles don't fall behind in the young season. This Rams secondary has a phenomenal CB in Jalen Ramsey and a really good young safety in John Johnson III; they aren't slouches. Wentz needs to be better and it would be surprising if he isn't.
Eagles (downright) Offensive Line vs. Aaron Donald and the Rams Pass Rush
Washington may have a better, deeper defensive line but they don't have Aaron Donald. He is so good he lifts a pass rush up to the top tiers of the league on his own given his dominance and versatility. Donald isn't just a Defensive Tackle; he'll line up inside and outside while wrecking every part of the OL he can along the way. Just look at what Baldy has in his review for him this week. This is a problematic matchup for Philly given their patchwork offensive line. Even though there were positive things some of the new guys did, they made a lot of mistakes, and will continue to do so in their young careers. The last time the Eagles played the Rams in 2018, Philly held Donald to 2 total pressures in probably his most ineffective game during the course of his DPOY season. The difference between that Eagles OL and this one is the health. Philly won't have a healthy Brandon Brooks; while they'll have Lane Johnson again it'll be in his first start of the season, he's coming off a late summer ankle procedure. So his effectiveness is still TBD. JP, who also played in that game, has also declined a considerable amount since then. One player returning to the field Sunday that should also give the Eagles a boost in pass protection is Miles Sanders. Not only is Sanders the best runner on the team, he's also the best pass blocking running back on the team. This alone won't stop Donald, but it should help. This defensive front from the Rams can get pushed around in the run game (more on that later) but can absolutely get after it in the pass rush department. Dallas doesn't have the line it used to either and Dak was under pressure at a roughly 42% rate, among the worst in week 1. The return of Lane Johnson should increase the effectiveness of this OL a considerable amount but given the new parts there will still be an adjustment period. This unit needs to come together quickly and the coaching staff needs to actually focus their game plan on helping their OL much more so than they did in week 1. Otherwise, expect Donald and his homies to bring the pain up front.
Eagles Pass Rush vs Rams OL
Even with some of the sustained injuries on this roster, the Eagles still have a formidable pass rush and flashed it quite a bit in week 1. The box score stats are highly deceiving in this area as Washington shifted their game plan quite a bit as the game went along. Philly pressured Haskins at a 30% clip last week. That number isn't great considering the state of Washington's offensive line. However, Haskins had the quickest time to throw in the NFL in week 1 with an average time to throw of 2.13 seconds. It's extremely difficult to pressure QBs when they get the ball out that quickly. Last week, Jared Goff was 8th in the NFL in this category, which will present some challenges for the Eagles. Dallas pressured Goff at a 20% clip last week, which is a horrendous number. Goff is a good QB and will slice you up if you don't get to him. But when you do, oftentimes he's effectively standing in quick sand as he was a bottom 8 QB under pressure (by Rating) in 2019. It's imperative this defensive front plays well this week. We already saw Malik Jackson return to form, now we need Fletcher Cox. Philly should get Brandon Graham (concussion) and Derek Barnett (hammy) back this week which should increase the effectiveness of the pass rush. Josh Sweat has also shown tremendous growth in year 3 having the best game of his career this past Sunday with TY McGill flashing in limited snaps. This offensive line from the Rams underwent a mini make-over this offseason but still has some question marks up front. This will be a real test for them as the Eagles pass rush is much more formidable than the one Dallas offers. Furthermore, this is a defensive staff that has consistently gotten to Goff of late. Given the changes on both squads, this is a good measuring stick game in the trenches.
Eagles Coverage vs Rams Receivers
Jim Schwartz had Sean McVay's number in their most recent matchup in 2018 so I am curious to see who gets the upper hand this time around. The Rams have a really good WR room with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Josh Reynolds. They also have a good tight end in Tyler Higbee. Philly has their work cut out for them this week as the Rams are much deeper than Washington. The Rams passing attack was predicated on the short, quick game with a lot of motions and play action last week. Carson Wentz led the NFL in Average Intended Air Yards while Jared Goff was last. Goff's Average Intended Air Yards were 4.3 per attempt with roughly half his passing attempts coming within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Getting the ball to Goff's first read and out of his hands quickly is key as he can be an adventure when he is forced to hold onto the ball. McVay is really good at disguising what the Rams will do running multiple plays out of similar looks. Lastly, their receivers are great at getting quick separation and great getting yards after the catch. The defensive game plan for Philly in the secondary should look quite different this week than it did last week. There isn't one receiver the Eagles can key on for Slay to take away. I'd bet Schwartz moves him around quite a bit but with Woods as the primary recipient of special attention. Slay looked every bit as good as you'd expect last week and that's a huge addition to this secondary. One area of concern I have for Philly is the middle of the defense. This Eagles LB group is among the worst in the NFL in coverage; McVay is going to look to attack that relentlessly all game long. He did the same thing to Dallas last week. It was encouraging to see Rodney McLeod bounce back after a poor 2019 as he was every bit as spry as he once was. The rest of the middle of this defense leaves a lot to be desired. Either way, this is a deeper Rams receiving room, with a creative play-caller, and a better passer than the Eagles just faced. There was a lot of good to take from the defensive performance last week but they face a significant test Sunday in the Rams.
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