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Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years
Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth. Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.
Why should companies embrace BB products?
Best-in-class security
Safety
Reliability
Achievements:
18 of the G20 governments as customers
Leader in EPP sector
Only software company to attain various security certifications from US Govt
BlackBerry’s solutions address over 96% of the collective threats (Frost & Sullivan research data)
Named as a Leader in Gartner’s 2019 Magic Quadrant for Unified Endpoint Management Tools for the fourth consecutive year
Collaboration with Ansys to support BlackBerry QNX’s “RTOS” for connected and autonomous vehicles
WM Motor to embed BlackBerry’s QNX Neutrino Realtime Operating System and other BlackBerry QNX software products within the company’s third-generation SUVs
Integration of the QNX Platform for Digital Cockpits in MARELLI Electronics China’s eCockpit and Digital Cluster solution
Reece Group is now using BlackBerry Cylance technology to protect thousands of endpoints across its retail stores and offices in Australia and the United States
Agreement with ETAS GmbH, a subsidiary of Bosch, to cooperate on the joint development and marketing of an automotive software platform based on the AUTOSAR Adaptive standard
Deeper partnership with Jaguar Land Rover for the use of the Company’s AI and machine learning technologies, BlackBerry QNX software and BlackBerry Cybersecurity Consulting services
LG Electronics Inc. to accelerate the deployment of connected and autonomous vehicle technology for automotive OEMs and Tier 1 vendors
SYNNEX Corporation to distribute the BlackBerry Enterprise Mobility Suite in the United States and accelerate partner recruitment for the BlackBerry Enterprise Partner Program
BlackBerry Limited announced that the NATO Communications and Information (NCI) Agency has awarded a contract for BlackBerry’s SecuSUITE® for Government to encrypt the conversations of its technology and cyber leaders
Certifications Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020. Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2. Context from Q3 2020 earnings call: Recognition As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing Ref: https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV https://imgur.com/qE13Y32
Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?
IoT
Cybersecurity
Connected transportation
Healthcare
Financial services
Government markets
Energy
Oil
Gas
What Products are offered by BB?
I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself QNX OTA: QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems. QNX Acoustics Management Platform: Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound. QNX Multimedia Suite: If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players. QNX Black Channel Communications: It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS. QNX ADAS: Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications. RADAR: Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI. How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
High volume of collection, up to 100 times more than other solutions in the market
It is designed for cloud-based – cloud-hosted business analytics applications, and reporting in one integrated and scalable platform
Long lasting battery, its modular architecture, and the ease of installation
How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?
The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).
How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?
Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products. Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service. As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts. Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.
How is BB coping up during the COVID?
The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.
What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?
The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.
How was the Customers growth among BB products?
QNX: QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars. Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS. The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance: It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made. Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response) Customers: Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few. Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service. Blackberry Spark: Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021. Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
U.S. Army
The United States Air Force, which upgraded over 90,000 users from UEM to the Spark Suite.
U.S. Postal Service
IRS
Department of Energy
Department of Justice
Raymond James Financial
Citibank
German Bundesbank
Bank of India
Government of Rwanda
UK Ministry of Defence
Royal Canadian Mint
Banco de Mexico
New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Rolls Royce
Lloyds Bank
Societe Générale
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
American Express
CIBC
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Qatar National Bank
The National Commercial Bank
Absa Bank
The Development Bank of Singapore
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector. Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security) Customers are eager to get with UES:
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Borse
ConvergeOne
Multiple ministries of the Dutch government
UEM Suite UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation AtHoc: Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment. Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management. Customers:
NYSE
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Edmonton Police Service
US Department of Transportation
BlackBerry Radar: In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis. In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order. In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:
Almon Equipment
Titanium Transportation Group
KreilKamp Trucking
RightLane Carrier
Axsun
Matson Logistics
CP
New Malwa Express
CTS (Contract Transport Services)
Polaris Transportation Group
XTL
BB Revenue:
Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources. 2021 Fiscal year Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar. The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%. As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year. Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016 Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013 Notes: In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020. IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF) Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.
Pricing for BB products
QNX Pricing: As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module. Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year. Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/ Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x. This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS. We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs. Radar Pricing: Estimation in 2017: BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar. The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution. Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1 Cylance Pricing: Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year. Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too. At present, the market share is below 1%. Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359 The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025: QNX: According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products) Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026 And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026 https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html Endpoint Protection (Cylance): The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period. https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market. Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million Asset Management (Radar): Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products. Challenges: QNX: Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game. There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP. IVY: Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s. Cylance: Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors. The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms. Radar: It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time. In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time). In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve. Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too: https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/ https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/ Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years. Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!! Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.
Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years
Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth. Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.
Why should companies embrace BB products?
Best-in-class security
Safety
Reliability
Achievements:
18 of the G20 governments as customers
Leader in EPP sector
Only software company to attain various security certifications from US Govt
BlackBerry’s solutions address over 96% of the collective threats (Frost & Sullivan research data)
Named as a Leader in Gartner’s 2019 Magic Quadrant for Unified Endpoint Management Tools for the fourth consecutive year
Collaboration with Ansys to support BlackBerry QNX’s “RTOS” for connected and autonomous vehicles
WM Motor to embed BlackBerry’s QNX Neutrino Realtime Operating System and other BlackBerry QNX software products within the company’s third-generation SUVs
Integration of the QNX Platform for Digital Cockpits in MARELLI Electronics China’s eCockpit and Digital Cluster solution
Reece Group is now using BlackBerry Cylance technology to protect thousands of endpoints across its retail stores and offices in Australia and the United States
Agreement with ETAS GmbH, a subsidiary of Bosch, to cooperate on the joint development and marketing of an automotive software platform based on the AUTOSAR Adaptive standard
Deeper partnership with Jaguar Land Rover for the use of the Company’s AI and machine learning technologies, BlackBerry QNX software and BlackBerry Cybersecurity Consulting services
LG Electronics Inc. to accelerate the deployment of connected and autonomous vehicle technology for automotive OEMs and Tier 1 vendors
SYNNEX Corporation to distribute the BlackBerry Enterprise Mobility Suite in the United States and accelerate partner recruitment for the BlackBerry Enterprise Partner Program
BlackBerry Limited announced that the NATO Communications and Information (NCI) Agency has awarded a contract for BlackBerry’s SecuSUITE® for Government to encrypt the conversations of its technology and cyber leaders
Certifications Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020. Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2. Context from Q3 2020 earnings call: Recognition As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing Ref: https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV https://imgur.com/qE13Y32
Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?
IoT
Cybersecurity
Connected transportation
Healthcare
Financial services
Government markets
Energy
Oil
Gas
What Products are offered by BB?
I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself QNX OTA: QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems. QNX Acoustics Management Platform: Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound. QNX Multimedia Suite: If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players. QNX Black Channel Communications: It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS. QNX ADAS: Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications. RADAR: Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI. How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
High volume of collection, up to 100 times more than other solutions in the market
It is designed for cloud-based – cloud-hosted business analytics applications, and reporting in one integrated and scalable platform
Long lasting battery, its modular architecture, and the ease of installation
How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?
The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).
How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?
Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products. Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service. As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts. Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.
How is BB coping up during the COVID?
The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.
What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?
The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.
How was the Customers growth among BB products?
QNX: QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars. Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS. The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance: It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made. Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response) Customers: Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few. Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service. Blackberry Spark: Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021. Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
U.S. Army
The United States Air Force, which upgraded over 90,000 users from UEM to the Spark Suite.
U.S. Postal Service
IRS
Department of Energy
Department of Justice
Raymond James Financial
Citibank
German Bundesbank
Bank of India
Government of Rwanda
UK Ministry of Defence
Royal Canadian Mint
Banco de Mexico
New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Rolls Royce
Lloyds Bank
Societe Générale
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
American Express
CIBC
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Qatar National Bank
The National Commercial Bank
Absa Bank
The Development Bank of Singapore
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector. Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security) Customers are eager to get with UES:
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Borse
ConvergeOne
Multiple ministries of the Dutch government
UEM Suite UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation AtHoc: Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment. Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management. Customers:
NYSE
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Edmonton Police Service
US Department of Transportation
BlackBerry Radar: In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis. In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order. In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:
Almon Equipment
Titanium Transportation Group
KreilKamp Trucking
RightLane Carrier
Axsun
Matson Logistics
CP
New Malwa Express
CTS (Contract Transport Services)
Polaris Transportation Group
XTL
BB Revenue:
Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources. 2021 Fiscal year Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar. The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%. As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year. Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016 Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013 Notes: In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020. IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF) Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.
Pricing for BB products
QNX Pricing: As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module. Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year. Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/ Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x. This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS. We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs. Radar Pricing: Estimation in 2017: BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar. The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution. Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1 Cylance Pricing: Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year. Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too. At present, the market share is below 1%. Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359 The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025: QNX: According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products) Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026 And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026 https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html Endpoint Protection (Cylance): The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period. https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market. Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million Asset Management (Radar): Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products. Challenges: QNX: Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game. There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP. IVY: Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s. Cylance: Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors. The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms. Radar: It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time. In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time). In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve. Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too: https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/ https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/ Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years. Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!! Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.
Please note: This game has significant disparities in performance, player experience, and review scores between the PC, next-gen consoles, Xbox One, and PS4 versions. The OpenCritic team and several critics suspect that the developer, CD PROJEKT RED, intentionally sought to hide the true state of the game on Xbox One and PS4, with requirements such as only allowing pre-rendered game footage in reviews and not issuing review copies for PS4 and Xbox One versions. This notice will be taken down in February 2021.
I have finished Cyberpunk but I will not have a review up today as I could not comply with CDPR"s embargo requirement that prohibited us from using our own recorded gameplay in the review. Instead, we were told to use b-roll, which is basically trailer footage. Reviews should not be vehicles for rolling out more marketing material, so I'll put my review up when I'm able to show you the reality of the game with my own footage. I'm also disappointed that no console review code was provided to any outlet... Console games are often reviewed without their day one or even day zero patches, so Cyberpunk would not have been special in this regard. Its really lame that no reviewer can tell you how this game runs on console on the review embargo. I absolutely love this game and I think CDPR did extraordinary work, but its clearly unfinished at this point and no review relying on trailer footage alone can properly convey that.
The minimum GPU listed is a GTX 780, with GTX 1060 6GB recommended for 1080p high, RTX 2060 for 1440p ultra, and an RTX 2080 Super for 4K ultra. Then there's the ray tracing additions, with the RTX 2060 listed as the minimum for 1080p and RT medium, 3070 for 1440p and RT ultra, and 3080 for 4K RT ultra. Based on what we're seeing, it looks like those recommendations are for 30-40 fps.
Cyberpunk 2077 is the ultimate power fantasy. A video game that takes the best of modern RPG, first-person shooter, stealth, and the open world and masterfully blends it into a single product. If Skyrim and GTA V marked a before and after for their genres at the beginning of the 2010s, Cyberpunk 2077 is called to do the same from this 2020.
The game may not be perfect but given CD project Red's reputation for fixing and updating games Cyberpunk has a bright neon-lit future. It can proudly sit among its influences of Ghost in the Shell, Blade Runner and Neuromancer (as well as games like Deus Ex, System Shock) with its augmented head held high. It's been a long wait, but the end result is a massive sprawling RPG with an incredible story, heart-pounding action, solid mechanics and customisation, offering you unparalleled player choice in a deep, atmospheric world that I can't wait to plug myself back into.
Cyberpunk 2077 is a victim of bloat, but you can choose to ignore a lot of it and take in the sights. That's where Night City is at its best, and I sincerely suggest that you take your time going through it, as rushing will only lead to disappointment. Even just strolling through though though, you'll probably be left wanting more.
We could wax lyrical about how good this game is for another ten years, and we still think the conversation would be relevant - so yes, we think Cyberpunk 2077 is the game of the decade. This is an event, and a big moment in gaming, because the brilliant Cyberpunk 2077 is laying down the stepping stones for greater feats in the future.
CD Projekt RED is willing to take an even bigger risk and dare something very different, combining elements that they have proven to know well and elements which they have no previous experience in.
And it is precisely for this reason that, despite all the technical problems of the production, we cannot in any way fail to assign a vote of excellence to the work of CDPR: the defects will disappear over time, but already now Cyberpunk 2077 is a title which undoubtedly deserves a place of honor in all players' library.
Measured against the extreme expectations, Cyberpunk 2077 can't fulfill any of them. But all in all, despite the countless small weaknesses and inconsequences, with interesting characters, great story and dialogues or the freedom concerning gameplay, CD Projekt delivers a unique and great RPG that every fan of the genre needs to play.
Cyberpunk 2077 proves that the developers have improved their skills since fantastic The Witcher 3. It is an excellent action RPG that would benefit from a longer delay to polish the various issues. However, no amount of bugs can diminish the immense pleasure of exploring this world.
The era of the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X has arrived, but Cyberpunk 2077 is currently running on those next-gen platforms via backwards compatibility. A true next-gen update isn't due until sometime in 2021. That means CD Projekt Red developed a game for three platforms, and it's running on an acceptable level on just one (PC), provided you have the hardware. That is just plain ridiculous.
It's definitely feels like with Cyberpunk 2077 CD Projekt RED tried to tell a really meaningful story, while using as a backdrop truly a unique setting. And all the while the developers made sure that the game still feels approachable by all kind of people, and that it presents itself with insane graphical fidelity painting an image of an eerily realistic world of tommorow. We doubt there's too many people who don't believe in CD Projekt RED, but in case you're one of them, be warned - Cyberpunk 2077 is something that will change the way you look at the gaming industry as a whole.
This is an outstanding and highly enjoyable game, but take your time with it, do all the side missions (think of them as extensions of the main quest, in fact) and don’t rush the main storyline. You should absolutely take the earliest available opportunity to explore Night City and everything it has to offer. From the visuals to the music to the vibe, it’s a superb experience and one I am looking forward to spending a lot more time with.
Cyberpunk 2077 isn’t perfect, but it is ambitious. It marries a gripping story with a huge open world absolutely dripping with atmosphere; one in which, after fifty hours of gameplay, I still feel like I’ve only scratched its surface. Even now I’m itching to jump back in and complete yet more side jobs, not only because they’re enjoyable, but also just in case they offer V more options when it comes to ending their story.
Cyberpunk 2077 is a new masterpiece from CD Projekt RED, a huge, dense, vibrant, colorfoul and dark Sci-Fi RPG that any fan of the genre should step in. First because it will provide the sensation that the story really depends on you choices and that you have everything you need for your playstyle. Then because streets, stores, buildings, inhabitants of Night City won't get out of your head easily. You'll be happy to interact with Keanu Reeves, but the real star is this city and all it provides in terms of atmosphere, game mechanics and stories. [OpenCritic note: Gianni Molinaro separately reviewed the next-gen (10) and current-gen (4) versions. The scores have been averaged.]
Cyberpunk 2077 is the cyberpunk game of my dreams, it provides one of the most highly detailed environments I’ve ever seen, with an incredibly expansive and immersive narrative.
Cyberpunk 2077 is a great game, but it could have been an incredible game that defined a generation. Instead, it falls victim to its own ambition and the industry's constant desire to push, push, push it out. In its current state, it's not for the faint of heart, and even hardcore Cyberpunk fans may struggle to stay interested amidst all the crashes and issues. If you have yet to pick it up, wait a few months and you could very well be treated to the experience we were all hoping for at launch.
Although there still exist a lot of technical glitches, Cyberpunk 2077 stands out in terms of cyberpunk concept, story-telling, characters, level-design, combat, and so forth. It's a pleasure to spend hundreds of hours in the Night City, and I believe it would be one of the greatest open-world RPGs in the next decade.
The dark future certainly looks promising, thanks to the collective imagination of the team at CD Projekt Red, which seems to know no bounds. Cyberpunk 2077 certainly took a while to come to our hands, but be glad it’s finally here, for it is here to stay for a long time to come. And it certainly did not disappoint.
Cyberpunk 2077 is one of the greatest RPGs of the generation. We love Night City, its characters and great writing for every mission. It is also one of the best looking games out there (if your PC is powerful enough).
Cyberpunk 2077 is like an addictive, huge, impressive braindance, where the feelings are real, while sometimes you see the puppet strings. It's an ambitious RPG, where narration, decisions and dialogue are far more important than combat, wrapped around a lot of fun, but usual and not always perfect, action mechanics. Engaging and marvellous to play, Night City on high-end PCs is stunning to see and super stylish. Cyberpunk 2077 is worth the wait, because the adventure of V and Johnny Silverhand is greater than the sum of its parts.
Cyberpunk 2077 offers a great sci-fi experience in which you can get lost for hours. It is not a revolutionary title in its genre, but it brings fresh changes. Whether it's new tasks, well-written dialogues, and characters, good stylized graphics, or very pleasant controls. Decision-making constructions leave you free where you need them. Conversely, they bind you in places where it is important. Everything fits together thanks to that. And if you were afraid that Cyberpunk 2077 would be a debacle. Throw this worry behind your head. Enjoy Night City to the fullest!
I haven’t fallen in love with playing Cyberpunk 2077, but I haven’t loathed it either. Some moments have been exciting or moving, while others have just felt like stuff to do.
A stunning achievement in open world gameplay but one whose tonal inconsistencies and weak narrative undermines what could have been an all-time classic.
Groundbreaking, but not quite as much as you're hoping it is. Cyberpunk 2077 doesn't surpass its brilliant influences, but in Night City, Johnny Silverhand, and its chilling vision of hyper-capitalism, it claims territory of its own.
I fell in love with Night City, warts and all. If its many bugs can get ironed out, Cyberpunk 2077 is a potential Game of the Year candidate. Here’s hoping that CD Projekt Red can quickly push out fixes.
Cyberpunk 2077 is huge, steeped in sex, satisfying shooting, and the expansion of individual elements delights. It's one of those productions you want to get ing into to get to know its charms and enjoy every moment in Night City.
Cyberpunk 2077 is staggering, overwhelming, and even surprising at times in its spectacle. Although my first dozen hours with the game has been marred by easy-to-fix problems, Nighty City, along with all it offers and all that call it home, makes for an intoxicating escape. Here's hoping the next one hundred hours are as utterly compelling.
We're still playing Cyberpunk 2077 in order to bring you a finished review, but it's impossible to recommend picking this game up at launch on PS4 or PS4 Pro. On PS5 via backwards compatibility, there's still fun to be had - a glimpse of the game's excellent potential - but even then, it's crippled by bugs and crashing issues. There's something truly special at the core of Cyberpunk 2077, but in its current state, it's simply not good enough. So far, a colossal disappointment.
When Cyberpunk's grim setting and mix of gameplay systems land, it is a powerfully impressive experience - sprawling, dense, clever, witty, and most importantly damn good fun. Other times, it has all the charm of a moody, edgy teenager.
An ambitious, maybe over ambitious, thrilling ride that falters when it comes to execution. The developer's strength shines through the world building and production, resulting in a unique mix that is let down by a myriad list of technical and AI problems.
Ultimately, it feels like Cyberpunk 2077 is a fitting bookend for the previous generation of games and a strong starting point for current-gen. Now it's time to start innovating again.
Cyberpunk 2077 is a wild journey within an incredibly fascinating setting; some technical uncertainties destined to disappear and a partial repetitiveness limit its glory, but overall it is an adventure worthy of William Gibson himself. Cyberpunk 2077 allowed me to finally feel immersed in that pen & paper RPG I discovered in 1988, pouring rain clouding my view in a kaleidoscope of neon signs, just as I had imagined while leafing through those pages. Some may not consider it a perfect game, but I do.
I’m V and the game is Silverhand - I can’t get Cyberpunk 2077 out of my head. I’ve had it a week and played 70 hours, which is probably about as healthy as scooping out my face and replacing it with electronics, but it didn’t feel like work. Like a digital personality loaded onto a biochip, it felt like stepping into another life for a while. It’s a life I can’t wait to relive.
CD Projekt Red has created a triumphant RPG experience with Cyberpunk 2077, yet it often falters under the weight of its own ambition thanks to inconsistent writing and narrative
Too ambitious for its own good, Cyberpunk 2077 attempts to do too much and falters in its execution as a result. Despite its issues, it’s better than the sum of its parts and might be worth checking out for fans of action RPGs.
In the midst of such intense anticipation and scrutiny, it’s easy to get carried away with what Cyberpunk 2077 could have been. The final experience might be more familiar than many predicted, with plenty of elements that aren’t perfect, but it’s dripping with detail and engaging stories. With so much to see and do, Cyberpunk 2077 is the kind of RPG where you blink and hours go by, which is just what we need to finish off 2020.
Cyberpunk 2077 is an open-world masterpiece that features some of the most immersive and liberating storytelling this industry has to offer. With full freedom to choose V's personality, looks, and gameplay style, Cyberpunk 2077 gives the player an unrelenting amount of control in a world that delivers dozens upon dozens of hours of high-quality content. Cyberpunk 2077 is a mammoth achievement and solidifies CD Projekt RED's place at the top of the pile.
It may not sound like it, but I enjoyed many aspects of Cyberpunk 2077. It doesn't hit the highs of The Witcher 3, but it still has a lot going for it. However, it was released in such an unfinished state that it's hard to give it a positive review. It's an 8.0 game hiding in a 4.0 game wrapper. I might change my tune in a few months, when patches have rolled out, but even when playing the best version available on the PlayStation systems, there's no getting around it: Cyberpunk 2077 might have been mocked for its delays, but it needed more of them. You'll still have fun if you pick it up now, but unless you're dying for it, it's best to wait until it's been patched and improved.
[UK] Best places to buy good quality but affordable sofa. Are interest free credit deals any good?
As the title says - I want to know the best places to buy a sofa. We're looking to replace the slightly worse-for-wear sofa in our lounge (was a freebie from SO's brother :)). We could probably put up in the region of £600-800 tops but obviously would love to get a high quality, long lasting one for less if at all possible. Where do people go for decent sofas and where should be avoided? I think we'd rather go for a new one than risk going used (although I would definitely consider ex display or refurbished). Gone the second hand route in the past but ready to splash out on one that'll last. Friend of my gf recent bought one (not sure where from) on interest free deal so pays about £50 per month. Obviously this would be ideal but do you really get your money's worth? Paying £50 pm for 20 months for example, will that sofa really last as long as a £1000 one paid up front? Any advice or previous experience gratefully received. Thanks!
Unpopular opinion: you don't REALLY want pre nerf Tier 5. You just want the fights redone to be harder.
There's a popular narrative about TBC going around right now. It loosely says that content in TBC was progressively nerfed, and that if it's released like this, TBC will not be hard enough. Serpentshrine Cavern and Tempest Keep are often mentioned as raids which need to be release 'pre-nerf' These raids were indeed nerfed through TBC, but I think the changes were warranted, and moreover many of them were good for the game. Because what people don't account for is that these raids were basically released in a beta state. They were buggy and unfinished. For instance, prior to 2.1 Vashj had a mind control ability called Persuasion. This required extra coordination and CC. It definitely did make the fight harder. But, on the flipside, the way it was actually implemented was hard in a totally bullshit way. After the world first Vashj kill, Nihilum had this to say about the mechanic:
The main problem is mind control. This is a major problem with the encounter because it can control anyone, even all the tanks who's tanking her. You have to raid with insane amounts of dps which we can live with until they get mind controlled (+200% damage and 1000% healing) and start one shoting each other or healing Vashj for over 50k.
According to other things I've read, the tank getting MC'd meant Vashj would turn and start one shotting every DPS. When this happened the fight was almost a guaranteed wipe. In other words, once you're at phase 3, there's a chance the die rolls wrong and you lose. Or, for instance, you're a paladin, and before you can be CC'd Vashj makes you Blessing of Sacrifice her and you get one shot. Not because you made a mistake, or because you were flubbing a particularly hard mechanic, it's because there was just an RNG chance you die. Nihilum complained about RNG being too big a factor in this fight generally, stating in the same post:
She also love to use her shock ability and shoot as you get to phase 3 on (at least how it appears to be) a random person in the raid. This player usally always dies and there is nothing you can do to prevent it. Her bats poison is able to kill phased out warlock imps too. I think with some tweaking of the mind control and this boss could be killable. We've had Lady Vashj at low health for weeks now our best rolls being 5% and 3% most phase 3 attempts were completely perfect but her randomness of mind controlling people destroyed our entire raid in seconds.
As we mentioned in a previous update we have been working very hard on the Lady Random. I mean the Lady Vashj encounter. It used to be enjoyable until we discovered how broken everything is, especially in phase 3. Please fix your buggy, non-tested, totally random encounters. It's not surprising yet again we find ourselves at the end boss of an instance only to find the encounter untested and as random as Kungens lucky 100 sided dice. In her current state the encounter is like trying to kill Kel'Thuzad, C'Thun and Magtheridon at the same time when theyve just come back from a night out in Amsterdam. Add all the random factors to the encounter and no matter if all 25 of us play like superstars there is still a higher chance to wipe then to acually win.
It should be noted as well that, while Nihilum undoubtedly were the first to kill Vashj, that the way they did it made use of a bug that took a big chunk of her HP. Some later members claim they intentionally abused a bug to do it. Nihilum also didn't attempt her at all for the next months, moving to TK. The first 'legit' kill, as is claimed, was by Method. This kill wasn't until May 5th, only a few weeks before the first Kael'Thas kill. I consider this the first 'real' kill, and in order for it to happen Method had to a) get very lucky, b) use warlocks outside to soulstone the entire raid, and c) used every available possible TBC and classic consume on top of classic world buffs. And even then, they only barely killed her, with only a couple people being alive when she died. Then the fight bugged out, the adds didn't despawn, and would instantly kill anyone who rezoned so they couldn't loot the boss (just as a testament to how buggy SSC was). Despite being the first guild to get a clean kill of Vashj, Method wasn't exactly impressed with the content. Method was interviewed on Warcraft Radio after the Vashj kill. At 50 minutes in, they're asked:
What do you think of Burning Crusade's raid encounters as regards to so-called legacy raid encounters, Molten Core through to Naxx? A: Well Naxxramas was a very very good instance and very well design and very enjoyable and all the bosses were, as I said earlier, they weren't that buggy, and they were just quite good and well designed.. compared to Burning Crusade ones, it's a step above. B: Yeah, you would have thought that Burning Crusade raids, raiding instances would have been a solid improvement from Naxxramas, but in terms of enjoyment, Naxxramas has so far beaten all the raiding content in Burning Crusade, unfortunately, in my opinion. A: Yeah, I would agree with that.
On top of that, trash wasn't tied to bosses and would respawn on a 45 minute timer. This means that you could get 1-2 attempts in on a boss, before you'd have to clear a massive amount of trash to get back to them. In an interview with Nihilum, they complain about the copious amounts of trash and suggest it be increased to 2 hours. There's also a few other suggestions they make made it into the 2.1 patch. In other words, these top end raiders weren't doing finalized, tuned content that was just much harder and got nerfed. They were basically beta testing raids for Blizzard. They did not particularly enjoy doing this, and the raids weren't particularly enjoyable. Patch 2.1 came out about two weeks after the first legitimate kill of Vashj. Patch 2.1 significantly tweaks SSC. It now ties trash packs to bosses so when the boss dies they no longer respawn. The respawn timer is increased to what Nihilum suggested. Persuasion is moved from Vashj and she's retweaked for the encounter to be less RNG based. This does nerf the fight heavily. But also, people need to remember, this was the patch where consumables and world buffs were fixed. Previously raiders were using every classic consume, TBC consume, and classic world buffs. That got reduced to only a small amount of TBC consumes. A nerf to the raid's difficulty makes sense when they're also reducing the player's power quite a bit. And they also stripped away alot of the bullshit, unfun RNG elements that made these guilds so angry. This was a good change. I think it's fair to say that 2.1 was the 'actual' release of SSC/TK, everything before that was free beta testing by the top guilds for Blizzard. Today, you could reintroduce Persuasion to Vashj if you tweaked it to not target the tank. Players could probably handle it. However, I also think people would not want to reintroduce the bugs that spawned a bunch of extra adds for no reason, or the bug that makes adds not despawn and prevents the raid from looting her. People would want mind control fixed so it doesn't automatically wipe the raid, or so it doesn't make paladins suicide themselves. What I'm getting at here is, the 'pre nerf' version of SSC never existed in a state that wasn't also littered with game breaking bugs, or with cancerous amounts of trash that required the raid to clear it again every hour. So what people are asking for isn't really the 'pre nerf' version of the fight. They're asking for what is essentially a post-nerfed, retuned fight with lots of bug fixes that also retains some of older abilities to make it more difficult. But that was never actually in TBC. At that point you're just remaking the fights, you're not restoring them to what they were. So yeah, I don't think anyone who wants the 'pre nerf' version of the fights really wants all of what that entails. Nobody really enjoys losing to RNG, nobody wants to deal with shitty, buggy fights, nobody wants to deal with insane, overtuned trash. What people want basically is for Blizzard to remake the fights to be harder than they were in their refined, playable state. Which means 2.1 but tweaked, not 2.0.
I know advice isn't the usual sort of post here, but this does relate to the sub's goal of 'free dialogue held in good faith' and this is a growing trend so hopefully people can give some good advice. Here's what happened: For context, I am white and my wife and SIL are mixed race, and they sometimes refers to themselves as black too. We live in the UK. I was giving my SIL a lift to my house with my kids in the back, and we were going through a particular part of town where people often cross the road with little warning. I was chatting about how people always seem to jump out, when ahead of my a guy was stepping out on to the road. I pointed and said, "Look at this old asian guy!" He looked like he was south asian (Indian or Pakistani etc). In the UK it's common to use the term "asian" to mean people from south asia. After we had arrived home, she said "csvfa, there's something important I want to talk to you about". I was like, "ok this must be serious, she's never like this". She said "When we were in the car you called that man an "old, asian guy". That made me feel uncomfortable. I know you've got nothing against asian people, but it's important we're aware of our words, especially with your kids in the car" I couldn't believe what I was hearing. I was very offended at her inferring that I made a racist comment. Not to mention lecturing me about what I should say or not say in front of my own kids! I said "Well if you're uncomfortable in my car then it's best I don't give you any more lifts" and I walked out. Later, she apologised "that this had become a big thing" (she did not apologise for what she said to me). My wife (who is trying to stay neutral, understandably) told me she has done this to other people, who protest to her that they didn't mean anything racist, then for SIL to give them a lecture on how they are unconsciously biased, suffer from white fragility, and that we live in a systemically racist society, "words matter" etc etc. I now refuse to debate that sort of nonsense - I am not going to lower myself to that level. I briefly had that sort of debate with her a couple of years ago when she was reading one of those awful books ("why I don't talk to white people about race or something) and when I said something about how I'm not racist she said "the book said you would say that!". Has anyone had similar experiences? How do you deal with someone close to you who genuinely believes they are "fighting racism" by lecturing you like this? I've told her my relationship with her is important (otherwise she is great and helps with the kids quite a lot), and I want to sort this out. But I won't put up with being told I'm racist and I can't talk to a robot that mindlessly repeats phrases from woke ideology. Thoughts or advice?
Pass the bong and gather round, bros! We're gonna like....um....what were we doing again? Oh yeah, we're gonna talk about those Chronic stocks and how you Ganja Gorillas can avoid becoming Game Gibbons
Hay hay, Ay, listen up, B, lemme holler at you a minute. I notice you been eyeing that portfolio real luscious like, almost like you found a couple extra bananas under your tree, am I right? Cool, cool. So whatchu holdin', homey? Tillllllray? Aw yiss. Aphria? Yeah, she fine as hell. CGC? Oh lawd, dat ass is bangin'. ACB? Aw man, you like the classics, that's dope. OGI? Into the up and comers, respect young blood. SNDL? SNDL? For real? Dude.... Hi all, NrdRage here. You might remember me from such hits as "pegging $GME dead right multiple times during its bubble, making everybody rich on $RIOT, exposing the $PLUG infinite money glitch, accidentally helping start the $BB craze, never getting an $AMD weekly call right and being in an abusive relationship with the VIX" or maybe "The SEC and you: How you can just say no to having them shove a Mister Fister up your ass". Alright, apes, it's been a great few days being able to throw a dart at a wall of weed stocks and no matter where it sticks, you make money. It's been a great run. But if you're going to expand the acreage of your jungle and the amount of lady gorillas you earn the right to mate with, you gotta start thinking a bit. And that means - hear me out - thinking of how the hell you plan on getting out of SNDL alive. And yes, I realize I'm saying this right after it spiked almost a hundo percent in the last 24 hours. Look, I was playing it, too. I grabbed some 2/19 3c's and a shit ton of 1/22 1.5c's on Tuesday. I also got out of both of those today, though not as high up as I could have. If you check my history, you'll see I even said I was goingt to eye a re-entry. Then the market took a giant dump and gave me that entry, but I passed on it because I had done some research by that point. Whatever, profit's profit. Here's the TL:DR: It's basically a penny stock that's gotten pumped to hell. But the smart ape realizes when something has gone too mainstream and gets out of the way before the bulldozers wipe out his trees. Hey, I love shoving a share price around a bit as much as the next guy, I ain't gonna talk shit about that. But it seems like nobody has an exit strategy for this, and I'm starting to see a lot of really stupid shit about Holding to 42.69 and all the other ridiculous bullshit from people who clearly don't even know what they fuck they've invested in that the GME Gibbons fell for.
Here's the reality of SNDL:
The company was on the verge of bankruptcy around Thanksgiving, they have no other markets other than Canada, which is ridiculously oversaturated with weed to the point that wholesale prices are less than a dollar a gram. And they recently got forced to admit that their product fails to meet THC content requirements. In case you're wondering what that means, it means they sell skunkweed that they cut with paper and sawdust to make it cheaper. They sell garbage. And everyone knows it - their brand is associated with low quality crap. Plus, they actively solicited us to buy their stock to drive up the price, then diluted it to fuck with a billion share offering. Now, to their credit, this not only enabled them to become debt free, but also up their marketing budget and spend some time trying to create a brand. Don't get too excited, fucking Sam's Choice at Wal-Mart is a brand, too, doesn't mean you should stick a chub of their ground beef up your rectum. By reason of them selling skunkweed, their margins lag well behind that of their competitors. Looking at their financials, they've got 615 million in cash laying around. That's pretty good - except they're a company that burns 250 million a quarter. Which means they're going to dilute the fuck out of everyone again next month. They've got no exposure to the US market, but had no problem dropping "rumors" that they were going to break in to the US market through licensing deals - which turned out to be 1 pot shop in Bellingham, Washington. They have no real expansion plan anywhere in the world, for that matter.
B...bu.....bu.bu....BUT NRDRAGE! Stonk go up ! Look at it! SNDL to the moon! 🚀 🚀 🚀 ).
Yeah, I know. It's fucking crazy to talk shit about a stock when it's seemingly mid flight. But here I am anyways. Not to talk you out of the weed party - you should totally keep playing that for all it's worth - but rather to get people to see that they've probably outgrown skunkweed now. Look, the reason this thing mooned is because it was like a dollar. Hell, it was 13 cents not too far back. With a stock worth a dollar, it's easy to get a lot of other apes to throw a couple of bananas at it for the lulz. It's easy to shove around a penny stock with an extra 10 bucks you have laying around from another trade somewhere. But as the price goes up, so too goes up the perceived cost of entering. I can make a strong (unassailable, in fact), argument that $APHA at $25 is cheaper than SNDL at 3.25. But people are conditioned to like smaller numbers. Unfortunately, as the GME Gibbons learned, eventually you run out of buyers, and then things go tits up real fast. As the Prophet Biggie Smalls once said, Mo' Money Equals Mo' Problems. We all know this equation to be true. And here you are, sitting on bags of bananas you didn't know you were gonna have a week ago thanks to some stonk you hadn't heard of before yesterday. You don't think you've got a problem, but you do. Because those bags of bananas aren't edible until you turn them in to the bank for real cash. If you're sitting on bananas from the gold standard of the weed world (that would be, $TLRY), you're resting pretty easy that no other ape is gonna come by and steal your bananas. There are gonna be lots of bananas to go around, and mostly we're just taking bananas from fools who think their bananas will be less later. But you don't have that with SNDL. All the bananas are currently sitting with people who think the bananas will go higher. You can't all be right, especially when there are billions of bananas, and now your grandparents are starting to buy bananas because some Boomer on CNBC told them it would make their dick bigger and their friends think they were cooler.
Again, I'm not telling you to leave the party
But, if you recall your dorm room years, the best pizza you could afford was the Tony's school lunchroom style shit for a dollar. Then you managed to hide a few bucks from the people who collect your student loans, and you upgraded to Domino's. Maybe by now you're ordering from a local joint that makes it's own dough in house and the sauce is made with the love of an old Italian grandma who accidentally dips her sagging tiddies into the pot 3 times while making it. That just makes it taste better. That's science. But I digress. The point is, you can get better weed now. You don't have to smoke the skunk. So before you get the rug pulled out from beneath you and are stuck investing in shitty penny stocks again, maybe you should elevate your enterprise. Let's take a look at your options:
Canopy Growth
You could go with $CGC. They not only sell higher quality weed, but are an established brand and also sell oils and shit to those hippie fucks who still think Burning Man isn't just a brogrammer beatfest and go to an acupuncturist to enhance their "luck". They've captured that all important 65+ stoner demographic by marketing their shit as a cure for seizures, cataracts, and dry vag, so they've got a lot of revenue. They've also had a much more muted rise this week because they just haven't been on everybody's lips, which means they've got a lot of room to run. The downside here is they burn almost as much cash as SNDL, but they've also got more bullets.
Aurora
If you go with $ACB, you're going with a company that's already gone through its "shady as fuck" stage and has re-emerged healthy from it. You're also not only getting on weed, but the DIY urban chicken farmer types who want to grow their own weed. They, too, have had a strong run, but have a lot more runway than most because they've actually got a really strong path to dominance in the US market once it opens up to them.
Organigram:
Look, if your dick is still getting hard at the thought of playing a low dollar stonk or you've only got 28 dollars to invest, you could do a lot worse. They've got strong branding, large growth potential, a management structure that doesn't seem to act shady, and they've run almost as well as the other new generation of meme stonks, but lagged back enough because nobody can fucking rmeember their name to where they can rubber band a bit.
Tilray and Aphria:
I'm combining these because they're inexorably joined at the hip (or should be, more on that later) because the two of them are merging. For those who don't know, sometime in Q2, every share of $APHA you own will turn into .833 shares of $TLRY. Even though APHA is the one buying out TLRY. This is basically the gold standard of weed stonkery. When you start investing in these, you know you're a real investor. Here's the interesting thing with these guys, though. Even though APHIA should be just slightly trailing behind TLRY in terms of stock price, it's currently trading at less than half. With TLRY sitting at 73 a share as I write this, APHA should be at just over $60. But it's at 29. Now, obviously, this means that TLRY has a lot more momentum, and some of that is due to the fact that there's a mini (don't flog me for using the word, but it's true) short squeeze going on with that one, which has turned it into such a strong momentum play. But APHA, by virtue of actual math, needs to be within about 17% of TLRY's price. Which means APHA either needs to moon dramatically, or TLRY needs to fall precipitously. Now either of those things could happen, but the momentum of TLRY is hard to stop, which means it's more likely that APHA rubber bands to catch up to it in the coming months. Even if TLRY does falter, that means APHA still has to come up a bit to meet it. Making APHA kind of a "can't go tits up" situation. TLRY also has the benefit of having enough market cap to where fund bois will buy into it, whereas SNDL is too small to meet most of their requirements. Which can further propel TLRY (and thus, drag APHA with it). One of the interesting things that's been happening with this pair is that the order books, even though they should mirror one another, have completely inverted from one another numerous times in the last couple of days. This, of course, was a bull flag for TLRY every time it happened, leaving APHA to compensate to try and catch back up shortly thereafter. It's really easy money. Fundamentally, these guys have one HUUUUUUUGE advantage over the others: They secured the UK distribution, and now have the inside track to be the supplier for the rest of the Europoors across the pond who need to smoke a bond to help forget all the things wrong with them. And if you don't think they won't be able to leverage that to be the front runners out of the gate when the US opens for business, then you definitely ain't black.
Or, you can just stay where you are and do the 💎👐 thing
Ask the $GME Gibbons how well that worked out for them. The ones still holding that stonk are like that one dude sitting at the edge of the bar of the Viper Room, still rocking his mullet and chain wallet, just convinced that Warrant and Slaughter are going to ring in the glory days of hair metal once more and that Queensryche is going to start selling out stadiums again. It's just sad. You're flying right now, but a rug is gonna get pulled out from under you and then you're gonna have your own daily thread where you reassure yourselves that it's gonna be OK and that you're gonna ride it to a thousand one day. Lots of us (myself included) made a fuck ton of money on GME. And we've made a fuck ton on SNDL and the rest of the Weedies this week. But there are always people who Melvin it and hang on to their position too long and get stuck. That's gonna be a lot of you, but you shouldn't let it be you.
TL:DR: Smart apes should look at their much bigger pile of bananas from SNDL while you're way ahead and upgrade them to plantains before the other apes. Plaintains equals breeding with better apes, not low quality apes that cannibalize fellow apes and give ape diseases.
All my love -Chad Dickens EDIT 1: I forgot to list my positions CGC - None ACB - None OGI - 10,000 shares @ $4.23, 1000 1/22 5c, 500 2/19 7.5c TLRY: 20,000 shares @ 18.74, 100 2/12 65c, 500 2/19 65c, 500 2/12 42c, 5000 6/18 43c APHA: 500 2/19 26c, 500 2/19 25c, 5000 7/16 30c SNDL: Opted out today
[OT] Two years ago I responded to a prompt “You're a powerful dragon that lived next to a small kingdom. ... As the kingdom fell to invaders, a dying soldier approaches you with the infant princess, begging you to take care of her. Today, the Dragon’s Scion book 1, Dragonflame, is a published novel!
Hello everyone! To repeat what the title said, (and get the full prompt, since it wouldn’t quite fit), two years ago I responded to this prompt: [WP] You're a powerful dragon that lived next to a small kingdom. For centuries you ignored humanity and lived alone in a cave, and the humans also avoided you. As the kingdom fell to invaders, a dying soldier approaches you with the infant princess, begging you to take care of her Well, I took that idea and decided the “invaders” weren’t of the “Across the mountain” kind and instead were the “from another world time,” and thus was born The Dragon’s Scion, a trilogy of books dealing with the the dragon-raised and empowered princess’s war against the alien invaders. Book one, Dragonflame, is out now, with more to follow in the coming months! Read the blurb below! --- Tythel thought growing up under the wings of the last dragon, Karjon the Magnificent, would be the most unusual part of her life. It was only the beginning. Finally, she’s come of age to begin her transformation into a half dragon. But just as the ritual completes, a steel ship bursts from the clouds, killing the dragon and tearing her world asunder. The attack leaves Tythel alone and on the run from the alien invaders. The same ones that conquered her world and killed her parents sixteen years ago. The rightful heir to the throne and the last draconic being, Tythel must use every tool at her disposal to survive and teach the aliens a lesson forged in flame. They should have let sleeping dragons lie. Dragonflame is an epic science-fantasy adventure. --- FAQ Audiobook/Print Copy? Print Copy is coming soon. For audiobook, nothing yet announced, but I’ll update if there is one! Is this science fiction or fantasy? Both, but in a different direction. Most science fantasy deals with science fiction tech and space wizards, and while I love me my space wizards, this goes the other way - the technology is powered by magic, the aliens use their own magic that isn’t just Sufficiently Advanced Technology, and the entire story takes place on a single fantasy world that the aliens invaded. Length? Dragonflame clocks in at just about 95k words, which makes it about 300 pages in print. Elves and Dwarves? Not exactly. There are the Sylvani and the Underfolk. Sylvani are woods-dwelling people, but they also have the ability to alter their skin appearance and texture and have mysterious origins, and the Underfolk don’t appear in book 1 but will in book 2, and they share “lives underground” with dwarves but take it in a vastly different direction. I read this on your subreddit, what’s different? In addition to a completely new introduction/prologue, I’ve applied many of the lessons I’ve learned writing Dragon’s Scion and other books over the last two years, and the prose is cleaner and better fleshed out, as well as some minor changes to fix early installment weirdness. Age range? The Dragon’s Scion deals with mature themes and has some racy jokes, but also has no real-world swears, no sex, and injuries are not described in overly-graphic detail. It’s PG-13 in movie land, and acceptable for ages 14+. Sequels? This book is part of a trilogy, and I'm looking to have book 2 - Ghostflame - out in mid Feb, early march. Purge the xeno! Not a question and not quite the right tone, but I like the enthusiasm. You can pick it up here! Amazon US Link - UK | CA | AU | DE | MX | JP | IN | BR | FR | ES | IT | NL I want to sample before I pick up? Well, good news for you - Check out the first two chapters below!
Prologue
On the path between a dying city and a mountain, a dying guardsman rode with a precious bundle in his arms. This was not the first horse the guardsman had ridden since leaving the city. The others had perished on the journey. He hadn’t even purchased this horse. Having long ago discarded his tabard and armor, this guardsman wore thick furs to keep out the bitter cold. Between that and the wild look in his eyes, he looked less like a guardsman and more like a bandit. It was fitting, in a way, that the third and final horse he rode was stolen. His name was Comber, and he had been part of the troop assigned to protect the royal family against all threats. For ten years he had stood his post, alongside the royal family’s Umbrists. Comber didn’t have the Shadow-infused powers of the Umbrist. He had armor that had been forged with steel mixed with light, and a sword that had been blessed millennia ago with a dragon’s breath. That was in the past. He had a vow to protect the royal family against any and all threats. He’d fought when the minions of a necromancer had snuck in through the sewers. He still had a scar on his thigh from an assassin’s crossbow bolt meant for the King. He was not a coward, and he had thought himself beyond fear. That was also in the past. Comber looked over his shoulder. His pursuers weren’t there. He was alone here. There was nothing but a path through the woods, a path that had been cleared by game hunters who would head this way. It took a bold man to hunt in these woods, given what guarded them. The same being that drew Comber deeper within. His last hope for salvation. The skies darkened, and Comber risked a glance upwards. There it was. That hole in the sky. The sun had passed behind it, casting a momentary shadow across the world. It was like the eclipse Comber remembered from when he was a child, but there was still light coming from the center. Small points showing stars unlike any he had seen before. A few tiny dots broke off from the main circle. Comber shuddered at the sight. He’d seen what those dots could do when they got lower. The bundle in his arms stirred when he shivered again, and looked up at him with bright green eyes. Awake now, the child’s face was placid for just a moment, those beautiful eyes flickering about. Then hunger set in, and the child started to wail. “Shhh, little one,” Comber whispered, stroking the side of the child’s face. “Shhh.” Still the child cried. She was just old enough to eat mashed food. Comber grimaced and looked around again. There was no one present. “Shhh,” Comber said, pulling on the reins of the horse. He reached into his pack. He still had some berries from the last town, and got to work mashing them into a paste with a mortar and pestle. At her age, the child had just enough understanding of what that smell and sound meant, and her cries turned to excited cooing as she reached towards his hands. “Almost there, little one,” Comber said. Or at least, he started to say. Halfway through the wound in his side reminded him of why he’d abandoned his sword, and Comber hissed in pain. Even the simple motion of grinding berries was too much for him. He set the mortar down carefully. He hadn’t been able to get a spoon in his mad flight. The child was able to suckle the paste off his finger, and that would have to be good enough. Once she’d been fed, Comber held her with one hand and pulled the other inside his coat. He ran his fingers over the hasty bandage. It was damp. He wanted to look at the injury, but didn’t dare. He knew what he’d find. Black veins sprawling outwards from under the bandage, creeping along his skin. Last night, the veins had been halfway to his chest. Soon they would reach his heart. He’d die then. Comber didn’t need to be a Physician to know that. The child reached up and grabbed for his nose with hands wrapped in mittens. Comber let her grab it, then pressed his forehead to hers. “Soon, you’ll be safe,” Comber whispered to her. Then it was time to transition the child to the straps wrapped around his chest, freeing his hands, and Comber resumed his ride to the mountain. *** The horse - Comber had never bothered giving it a name - came to a stop, and the jolt rocked Comber awake. He blinked around blearily. He’d fallen asleep in the saddle somehow. Everything felt like it had been coated in a layer of wool. Comber worked one of his hands free of the glove and pressed it against his forehead. In spite of the cold, heat radiated from the touch. “Fever,” he muttered to the child. “Bah-bah-bah-bah,” she said, which Comber took as affirmation. He smiled down at her, then looked around again. They’d reached the mountain. “We go no further together,” he said to the horse. Comber had never been one to speak to his mounts, aside from commands. He preferred to make noises at them, reassuring ones. But in the grip of fever, Comber felt irrationally sorry for abandoning an animal he’d only had for a day. A stolen one, at that. “You’ll be able to find your way back to town, won’t you? Or maybe you’ll be able to run free now, without the need...the need…” Comber trailed off. What had he been doing? Talking to a horse, that’s what. They were close to the base of the mountain, but not quite there. He could see it. Perhaps he could ride the horse a little bit further? He dug his heels in. The horse let out a huff of air and shook its head, instead backing up a few paces. “Of course,” Comber said, shaking his head. “Of course. A horse. A horse of course.” He laughed a bit. It wasn’t funny, but the child joined in the laughter. He patted the side of the horse’s neck again. “You smell it, don’t you?” The horse shook its head violently and took another step back. That was all the confirmation Comber needed. The horse would go no further. “You know,” Comber said, getting ready to dismount. “I should have known. They eat you, don’t they?” The horse did not respond this time, for it was a horse, and all it cared about was that it didn’t need to go any further. Comber got one foot out of the stirrup, but the world started to spin. Instead of dismounting gracefully, Comber swung drunkenly, and collapsed into the snow. He had just enough presence of mind to turn around as he fell, landing on his back to keep the child safe. Comber growled in pain as the impact lanced through his back. The shock did wonders for clearing his head. The child, jostled by the fall, poked her head up and giggled. “That’s right,” Comber grunted. “I’m silly, aren’t I?” The child reached up for him, grasping for him. Comber put his finger out for her to hold onto. He’d abandoned his station, and he knew he should feel guilty about that, but…the beings that had come from that hole in the sky were beyond anything that could be fought. Arrows bounced off their gleaming carapace. Swords were deflected with swipes from their unnatural hands. He had a duty, and he could only save one person. He’d chosen her. Comber rose to his feet and turned the horse around. It only took a nudge to get the horse trotting away from the mountain. It would live. The child would live. That would have to be enough. Comber made himself walk towards the mountain. Every footstep was like lead. He spotted a trail in the snow - someone else had come this way and left. They were human, or at least walked like one. It could be an Underfolk or Sylvani. It wasn’t the invaders. That much was certain. No one could mistake their skittering legs for human footsteps. The mountain, at least, was free of snow. Impossibly free, and impossibly warm. A fire burned in the heart of this mountain. Not the molten fire of a volcano. A living flame. A hungering flame. Had the fever started sooner than Comber realized? He’d been so certain of this plan. He’d heard tales of the flame that lived in this mountain. The tales had made it out to be one of the ones that did not feast on the flesh of Man or the other Intelligent Races. They said it had stood alongside the forces of the Light and Shadow against dread powers in the past. They said it was not to be disturbed, but would not slay - except for those that came to attack it. But still...could he trust it? It was too late now. There was nowhere else he was certain would be safe for the child. Not with that locket, secured carefully in a pouch in the swaddling. Even without it...would anywhere be safe from the invaders? Would anything? They hadn’t been killing innocents. They’d killed armies, they’d slaughtered guards, but any who did not pick up blade or spear against them was spared their wrath. Yet...Comber didn’t trust them to stop there. It was possible - nay, it seemed likely - that they were just starting with those that posed a threat to them. “Not that we did,” he said to the child, who paused in her attempts to gum his finger to look up at him. “I hope, if you remember nothing else, you remember that we tried. We tried.” “Burrrbl,” the child said happily. “We tried,” Comber repeated. And they had. Nicandros, the captain of the royal guard, had commanded them perfectly. However, no strategy could overcome the fact that their weapons did no harm to the invaders. That was when Comber realized the only option was saving what he could. That there would be no victory here. Still, Comber had fought, until his wound. Then...he’d been even more useless in battle. Time became unstable. Comber kept walking up the warm mountain and its bare stones. It was a gentle slope, which was the only reason he could progress at all. Ahead, he saw his goal. A hole, high up the mountain. One far larger than would be needed for a man to pass through, and one too smooth and round to be the result of nature. This was not a cave. It was a lair. Comber stumbled and dropped to his knees. The child started to wail again, startled by the jostling. Comber tried to shush its cries, but he was too late. Something was stirring in the lair, dragging itself forth from the depths. Comber saw golden eyes peering out of the darkness, followed by red scales and immense, bat-like wings. Comber had never seen a dragon in person. Only flying overhead, and even then, such sights were rare. He’d expected them to crawl across a ground, like a lizard, but this one slunk with a cat’s grace. An older cat, one that was past its prime hunting days, but still possessing enough energy to move about. The dragon flapped its wings and took to the air, circling around Comber once before landing. “I told Lathariel I would not be disturbed,” the dragon growled, and Comber was certain he’d made a mistake. Tears started to form in his eyes, unbidden. “Please…” Comber said, but the dragon shook its head. “I will not fight.” The dragon looked up, seeing the hole in the sky, and its nostrils flared. For a moment, Comber could see it considering...then it shook its head again. “I will not fight,” it repeated. “Leave this threat for younger drakes. Ones that have hotter flames.” “Please…” Comber said again, then coughed. Flecks of something black came with the cough, and Comber moved with speed he didn’t know he still had, pulling the child free of the path of whatever those were. He groaned in pain and nearly blacked out. “You are injured,” the dragon said, leaning down. “And you are ill.” Comber nodded. “I can heal your injuries,” the dragon said, after considering for a moment. “But my flames will make the disease spread quicker.” “Not...me.” Comber coughed again. “Her.” The dragon looked at the child. “She’s uninjured,” he said. “Care...protect.” Comber’s vision grew dark. “She...she...is.” Comber’s vision narrowed. “She is...everything....” The dragon was barely visible now. The world was barely visible. The child stirred, looking from the dragon to Comber and back again, starting to make distressed noises. She didn’t fear the dragon. That was good. But she could tell something was wrong. “I’m sorry,” Comber said to the child. He looked back up at the dragon. His vision was barely there anymore. He’d gone so far. It felt like part of his mind had been set on fire, to hold back death, and now that he was here, that flame had gone out. “Tell her…” Comber said, and then he started to cough again. “She is…” “What should I tell her she is?” the dragon asked, after Comber had been silent for too long. When he got no response, the dragon Karjon leaned down. The man’s heartbeat had been so faint when he’d approached, Karjon could barely hear it. Now, though? Now there was nothing. And the child started to cry. Karjon looked at it. He’d never dealt with human children before. He knew they needed more comfort than hatchlings. Uncertain, Karjon reached out with one claw and retracted his talon, then brushed his scales on the child’s cheek. Quick as a viper, the child grabbed Karjon’s finger tightly, trying to seek some comfort in a world that had abandoned her. Karjon sighed. He had not had children of his own. He hadn’t planned on doing so. But...if nothing else, he could not leave this child to starve on his mountain. He carefully bit on the swaddling, making certain to only let his fangs touch the fabric. Once these invaders had been dealt with, Karjon would take the child to the nearest humans. They would know how to handle her. He’d keep her safe until then. It shouldn’t be long. There had been many threats over his nine hundred years of life. They’d always been defeated. There was no reason to believe this would be any different.
Chapter 1
“I have lived for centuries,” Karjon growled. “I dueled the Necromancer Gix and his army of undead. I was on the Council of Twelve, battling the Lichborne. When the mad Lumcaster sought to blind the world, I doused him in my flames. How is it that nothing has vexed me as much as you, little one?” Tythel looked up at the dragon with eyes wide in feigned innocence. Sixteen years had passed since the mountain and the snow. She didn’t remember it, of course. Just as she did not remember what her name had been before coming here. Tythel was a dragon’s name, not a human name. For all Karjon’s bluster, she was not worried. In sixteen years, Karjon had never raised a claw in anger. “Father, have you considered that it is just because you love me so dearly?” Karjon huffed and shook his head. “That cannot be it. I think it must be because I did not know how vexing your unique subspecies of humans can be.” “Subspecies?” Tythel asked. “Yes. Those strange beings humans call ‘adolescents.’ Or perhaps it is just a trait unique to daughters.” Tythel beamed at him. The expression only came through with her eyes. In her books, humans would use their mouths to do things like smile and frown. Tythel understood, in theory, what those were, but the expressions didn’t come to her naturally. From what Karjon had said, she’d smiled and frowned at first...but with time, those had stopped. Now, she blinked rapidly to show her excitement. “Which would only matter because you love me. Therefore, I am still correct. And, since I am correct, I see no reason I should not be allowed to go.” Karjon sighed heavily. “Tythel…” “You said I could,” Tythel reminded him, trying her best not to sound sullen. “I told you that, yes,” Karjon said. “I said you could go when it was safe.” “I want to see other humans,” Tythel said. “Why can’t I go?” Karjon sighed again, a sound that filled the entire cave that was his lair and their home. “When, exactly, did ‘because I said so’ become insufficient?” “When I stopped being a child,” Tythel said. “You said when I was sixteen, I could go and see other humans.” “I said that you could go into the village when you were sixteen, Tythel. I did not say you could do so the very next day.” Making that promise, back when she was nine, had been a mistake. He’d done it to get her to cease her incessant questions. He didn’t think humans of that age could remember things for so long. “You’re splitting scales and you know it.” She folded her arms across her chest and glowered at him. Karjon, who weighed in at just over six tons and had battled some of the greatest foes the world had ever seen, broke the staring contest first. Tythel tried not to blink when she realized that meant she was getting through to him. For all his fury and might, Karjon had always struggled to deny her anything. Still, he was not caving like he usually did. “Tythel, there are reasons for the choices I make. They are for your safety.” “You always hide behind that, father. Are you planning on keeping me here the rest of my life? What are you hiding me from?” “There are those out there that would see you dead. Is that not enough explanation?” She glowered at him again. “You know I can’t do anything if you don’t tell me. But if you want me to leave it alone, you’ll need to give me more than that.” Her expression softened. “Please, father.” Karjon settled down onto the pile of coins that made his seat. Tythel took the cue and walked over to her own, smaller pile. She didn’t have a hoard of her own. Not yet. But she would one day, although she was less than eager for that day. Dragons did not share a hoard. She’d have to leave that day, never to live here again. “Perhaps…” Karjon started to say, then held up a claw to forestall her before she got too excited. “It is time you know of the dangers beyond this lair. Why I keep you hidden here. And tomorrow…” he studied her critically for a moment, then nodded. “You are old enough.” “To go visit?” Tythel asked hopefully. “Not yet,” Karjon said, shaking his head. “But tomorrow, I think you are ready for the one thing I know you want more than to leave.” Tythel sat up straighter, her eyes sparkling with excitement. “You mean...you’ll finish the adoption?” Karjon nodded, and Tythel leapt up to run over and wrap her arms around her father’s neck. “Thank you thank you thank you!” There were tears forming in her eyes, a human reaction she hadn’t shed with age, but these were tears of joy and not sadness. “It’s past time,” Karjon said. “I just worried about how your body would react to the transformation.” “I know,” Tythel said, although deep in her heart, she’d worried that he wouldn’t do it. That she wasn’t good enough. She’d never told Karjon that. If it wasn’t true, it would have broken his heart. If it was true...she couldn’t have handled that. Now, though, she was practically vibrating with anticipation. Karjon put one of his claws around her, in his version of a hug. From what he’d said, dragons did not engage in touch the way humans did, but one of his books had told him a lack of touch and affection could kill human infants. Deep down, Tythel suspected he had grown to like it himself. “Now. Will you listen, and will you wait?” Tythel nodded firmly. “Then do so,” Karjon said, and Tythel settled back onto her coins. “Sixteen years ago, just days before you were brought to me...the skies let loose monsters.” “Monsters?” Tythel asked. Karjon nodded. “I do not know if they have a name. I know what Lathariel told me they were being called ‘Those From Above.’ They had weapons that sucked in light and spewed forth their own unnatural energy. Unlight, she called it.” “And you fought them?” Tythel asked, excitedly. Karjon shook his head, and in his eyes Tythel could see sorrow she’d never imagined from her father. “I am old,” Karjon said. “I thought they could be defeated without me. Even when I was told dragonflame was all that would harm them...I still thought they could be defeated. There were other dragons. By the time I realized...it was too late. Those From Above had secured power over humanity. They rule down there now. As far as I know, they only fear dragonflame.” Tythel held up a hand and focused. A ball of flame formed between her fingers. “They fear this?” she asked. Dragonflame was similar to normal fire, but more vibrant. The transition from white to yellow to orange to red that happened in a normal flame was marked by clearer lines. Hers was weak. Not close to the true power of a dragon. She could barely call upon it, and couldn’t even touch the greater fires of ghostflame or heartflame. But it was not nothing. “Yes,” Karjon said, and there was a somber note to his voice that Tythel couldn’t ignore. “By healing you when you injured yourself...you already formed the gift. They will hunt you. For that and...for other reasons.” “What other reasons?” Karjon shook his head. “Not yet. There is much I have kept from you. You are old enough now, but...before that there’s something you need to understand.” He put one claw carefully on her knee. “Tythel...tomorrow, after the Ascension, the number of dragons in the world will go from one to two.” Tythel stared at her father for a long moment, processing his words. She’d never met another dragon, but the idea there had been other dragons out there...she’d just assumed it. Realizing they’d been hunted down, there was only one thing to do. She hugged Karjon again, and her father hugged her back. They sat there for a moment, before both of them could steady themselves enough to speak. “Tythel,” Karjon said. “I…have kept something else from you.” “It’s so much,” Tythel whispered. Karjon cocked his head. “Do you need time before the rest?” Tythel considered for a moment, then shook her head. “A scholar’s first duty is to acquire all information before passing judgement,” Tythel said, repeating one of her father’s lessons back to him. Karjon gave her a slow blink of amusement. “You listen too well sometimes. Very well. Your locket.” Tythel’s hands went up to the chain around her neck. She’d worn it as long as she could remember. It was the one piece of her own hoard she had. “You said it was my parents.” Karjon nodded. “That locket is the other reason you will be hunted. It is the locket of the royal family.” There was a moment of silence as Tythel stared at her father. “The…the royal family. But they…I mean…that’s…” Tythel sputtered off into silence. She couldn’t say it. “I’m…” Karjon nodded, the motion oddly gentle. “You are the heir to the throne of your family. The throne of the kingdom of Dretayne. You are the next queen of this realm. And for that, you will be hunted as one of the barriers to the rule of Those from Above.” Tythel took a deep, ragged breath, then nodded slowly. She couldn’t think about it right now. She could barely understand it. So she fell back on the lessons of her childhood. A scholar's first duty. “Tell me everything.” *** Tythel did not sleep well that night. She tried to, doing every meditation technique Karjon had taught her over the years, but she spent the entire night tossing and turning. The bed she slept on was one Karjon had gotten as a trophy from the Underfolk, those strange underground folk that were in Karjon’s stories, and it had been perfect for her when she was a child. But for the last two years, she’d been forced to scrunch up on it, leading to the impression the Underfolk were likely quite small. In truth, Tythel was taller than most humans. Sixteen years of eating a diet of meat cooked in dragonflame and lifting and moving gold on a regular basis had left her with a build that was less princess and more warrior, but since the only humans she’d seen had been in her imagination, she’d had no idea how imposing a figure she could cut when she wasn’t comparing herself to a dragon. She’d never complained to Karjon about the small bed. Other things, sure, but never that – or any of the other things he’d provided to her over the years. Tythel had known how lucky she’d been to have a dragon for a father. Karjon’s stories were full of tales of the legendary heroes of the past, Calcon the Brave and Rilan the Just and Brigith the Nobel and all the rest of them. All of them had started their lives as humble folk that had heeded the Call, which meant their lives had been the humdrum work of farmers and blacksmiths and other folk, and the stories all made that life out to be terribly dull. She’d always imagined Karjon had rescued her from that sort of suffering. Now she knew differently. She would have been a princess, daughter to a king and queen, living a life of luxury and wealth and, if the legends were any indication, would have either ended up spoiled rotten or kidnapped by someone to later be rescued. Other than that her life would have been one of formality and circumstance until she was married off to secure an alliance or to whoever had been strong enough to save her, regardless of their other qualities. Tythel decided that, small bed aside, she still felt lucky to have been raised by Karjon. That feeling was quickly followed by shame at even considering an alternative. She got out of bed and pulled her blankets and pillows to the floor, arranging them in a pile like the gold Karjon slept on. It wasn’t as comfortable as the bed, but it did allow her to stretch out, and that was preferable to being cramped into the bed at the moment. The problem was, it wasn’t the bed keeping her up tonight. It was her mind. Tythel had been on top of the mountain a few times every year, under Karjon’s careful eye. He had explained that if she didn’t get to see the sky every now and then, she’d probably go mad. The village had always fascinated her, and her entire life she’d wanted to go there, just for a day, to explore and celebrate. She wanted to see horses and soldiers and blacksmiths and maybe even a lumcaster if she was really lucky. Karjon had taught her some magic, the barest flicker of dragonflame, but it was not magic meant for humans. Of course, that would change tomorrow. Well, her being human – she didn’t know if she’d gain any proficiency with her meager powers in the process. She’d have Karjon’s power running through her veins, becoming half dragon and half human. For most of her life, it had been the one thing she’d wanted more than going to the village. The village. She turned over again. From the mountain, it had been hard to make out details. She’d filled in those details in her head with ones stolen from her stories – thatched roofs covering star-crossed lovers, barns harboring hard working folk with wisdom gained from years of honest toil, scholars in cramped quarters trying to unravel the mysteries of the universe, chimneys smoking with fires that were roasting chickens or beef. Never in her life had she imagined the people out there were being subjected to tyrants that had more power than she could imagine. Never, not once, had she imagined that she was their ruler by a mere quirk of birth. That thought got her turning again. Karjon’s stories had talked about something called “noblesse oblige,” the responsibilities that the nobility had to their people. Protect them, help them, guide them, and care for them. If she was a noble – a royal – didn’t the same thing apply to her? Stop it, Tythel. Stop it. But the thought wouldn’t go away. If she stayed here with Karjon, she was failing in her responsibility. The sixteen years leading up to this had not been her fault; she hadn’t known she had duties. After a moment of reflection, she decided they weren’t Karjon’s fault either. They were the fault of the mysterious Those from Above. Now that she knew, however…well, Karjon had always taught her that inaction was still a choice, the choice to do nothing. Tomorrow, then, after the Ritual. She’d leave, no matter what. And if Karjon tried to stop her…well, then she’d have to do it alone. And that thought, more than any other, caused Tythel to burrow as deeply as she could into the blankets before sleep finally claimed her. --- Want to know what happens next? Check it out - Amazon US Link - UK | CA | AU | DE | MX | JP | IN | BR | FR | ES | IT | NL And if you can, please leave an honest review when you’re done - nothing helps more than reads and reviews.
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